1 recipient of james watt gold medal united nations association march 18th 2011 the twin challenges...

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Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal

United Nations AssociationMarch 18th 2011

The twin challenges facing the world: Energy Security and Climate Change: Hard Choices Ahead

Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnvReader Emeritus: University of East Anglia

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Increasing Occurrence of Drought

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Increasing Occurrence of Flood

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19792003

Climate Change: Changes in the Artic 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region

• NASA satellite imagery• في الجليد الصيف

الشمالي القطبالمنطقة تغطيةالقطبيه

• الصور ناساالفضاءيه

Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

•20% reduction in 24 years

في ٪ 20• سنوات 24تخفيض

المناختغير كاب القطبيه الجليديه على 2003 - 1979 اثار

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http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

Is Global Warming natural or man-made?

Natural causes• Earth’s Orbit• Sunspot Activity• Volcanic Eruptions • Etc.

Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960

Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period.

BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement

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Global Surface TemperatureIn 2010 we had one of the warmest ever January – February periods. Some people say surely it was coldest for 30 yearsBut why do people not account for the record breaking high

temperatures in the tropics, Australia etc?5th Warmest -

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• Winter: October – March: • Summer: April to September• Compared to 1960 – in 2010,

– 13.1% less heating needed– And 106% more cooling.

Temperature variations in East Anglia

Temperature rise in East Anglia over last 50 years is unequivocal

2010 was one a particularly warm year despite cold spells in Europe in January and December

NASA says it tied as being warmest

www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/.../HQ_11-014_Warmest_Year.htm

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8Per capita Carbon Emissions

UK

How does UK compare with other countries?

Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others?

What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?

France

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Carbon Emissions and Electricity

UK

France

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r

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Electricity Generation i n selected Countries

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0

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40

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2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

Bil

lion

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Actual UK production

Actual UK demandProjected productionProjected demand

Import Gap

Whether we believe in Climate Change or not Energy Security is a critical issue for the UK

On 13th Jan 2010: UK Production was only 41%: 14% from storage and 44% imports. In January 2011: Uk Production < 40% 11

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

UK becomes net importer of gas

Completion of Langeled Gas Line to Norway

Oil reaches $140 a barrel

Wholesale Electricity Price surge in January and December 2010 when Gas imports are high.

Gas CCGT0 - 80%

(currently 45-50%)

Available now (but is now running out

rapidly~2p +

Potential contribution to supply in 2020

Original Projection (energy Review 2002) p /

kWh

Projections (Jan 2011) Electricity Market Reform/

FITs

~8.3p +/- 3p

UK Gas Supply @ 11:00am on 15th March 2011

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New Coal ~ 10.5p with CCS ~ 13.5p

"Clean Coal"

Coal currently ~40% but

scheduled to fall

Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest not until 2050 for

significant impact

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

Gas CCGT0 - 80%

(currently 45-50%)

Available now (but is now running out

rapidly~2p +

Potential contribution to supply in 2020

Original Projection (energy Review 2002) p /

kWh

Projections (Jan 2011) Electricity Market Reform/

FITs

~8.3p +/- 3p

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 20% (France 80%) - (currently 18%

and falling)

new inherently safe designs - some

development needed2.5 - 3.5p

~ 9.7p for 1st new nuclear

subsequently 7.0p

Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020.

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6000

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10000

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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Inst

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MW

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New Build ?

ProjectedActual

Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new transport fuel will not be

available at scale required until mid 2020s if then

?

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

ResourcePotential contribution to electricity

supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers

Original estimate of cost (p / kWh)

Latest projections [Gas ~8.3

p/kWh]

On Shore Wind

~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]

available now for commercial exploitation

~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8p

Future prices from DECC Consultation Document on Electricity Market Reform Jan 2011.

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On Shore Wind

~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]


~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8p





p/kWh]

Off Shore Wind

25 - 50%Some development needed to reduce

costs.~2.5 - 3p

~13.5 -14p for early projects ~11.5p later

Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 28.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

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On Shore Wind

~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]


~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8p

Off Shore Wind

25 - 50%

some technical development

needed to reduce costs.

~2.5 - 3p~13.5 -14p for early projects ~11.5p later





p/kWh]

Hydro (mini - micro)

5%technically mature,

but limited potential

2.5 - 3p11p for 2MW

projects

Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill,

Norfolk.

Rated capacity 5.5 kW

Future prices from Electricity Market Reform for Wind or RO/FITs for other technologies

On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]


~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8p

Off Shore Wind

25 - 50%

some technical development

needed to reduce costs.

~2.5 - 3p~13.5 -14p for early projects ~11.5p later

Hydro (mini - micro) 5%

technically mature, but limited potential

2.5 - 3p11p for 2MW

projects

ResourcePotential contribution to

electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers



p/kWh]


Photovoltaic

<<5% even assuming 10

GW of installation

available, research needed to bring

down costs15+ p ~27 - 41p

Future prices from Electricity Market Reform for Wind or RO/FITs for other technologies17

On Shore Wind ~25 available now ~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8p

Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% available now ~2.5 - 3p ~11.5 -14p

Hydro (mini - micro)

5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p 11p for 2MW

Photovoltaic <<5%available, but

costly15+ p ~27 - 41p

Sewage, Landfill, Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas

??5% available, but research needed in some areas

2.5 - 4p7 - 13p depending on technology


ResourcePotential contribution to electricity supply in 2020



p/kWh]


Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

• Compressed gas from methane from waste.

To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require area of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted to biomass

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On Shore Wind ~25 available now ~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8pOff Shore Wind 25 - 50% available now ~2.5 - 3p ~11.5 -14pHydro (mini - micro)



costly15+ p ~27 - 41p

Biomass ??5% available, but research needed





p/kWh]



Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 10 MW may be 1000 - 2000

MW (~0.1%)

technology limited - major development not before 2020

4 - 8pNo information but likely to be

20p+19

On Shore Wind ~25 available now ~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8pOff Shore Wind 25 - 50% available now ~2.5 - 3p ~11.5 -14pHydro (mini - micro)



costly15+ p ~27 - 41p






p/kWh]



Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 10 MW may be 1000 - 2000

MW (~0.1%)

technology limited - major development not before 2020

4 - 8pNo information but likely to be

20p+

Wave/Tidal Stream

~0.1% technology limited - 4 - 8p 20p+ ??





p/kWh]On Shore Wind ~25 available now ~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8pOff Shore Wind 25 - 50% available now ~2.5 - 3p ~11.5 -14pHydro (mini - micro)



costly15+ p ~27 - 41p



Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%technology available but unlikely for 2020. Construction time ~10 years. In 2010 Government abandoned plans

for development

Output ~80 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south

Would save 40000 tonnes of CO2


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Wave/Tidal Stream

~0.1% technology limited - 4 - 8p 20p+ ??





p/kWh]On Shore Wind ~25 available now ~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8pOff Shore Wind 25 - 50% available now ~2.5 - 3p ~11.5 -14pHydro (mini - micro)



costly15+ p ~27 - 41p



Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%technology available but unlikely for 2020.

Construction time ~10 years. In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development


Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -

not to be confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consumed electricity

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Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?.

Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?

Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? •then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly

•unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY

If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Our Choices: They are difficult

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Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is YES

By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS

for around 70% of our heating and electricity

imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria

Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

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nuclear new nuclear coal

new coal oil renewablesgas medium renewables high renewables

Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation

We need an integrated energy supply which is diverse and secure.

We need to take Energy out of Party Politics.! 25

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How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?

5 hot air balloons per person per year.

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

"Nobody made a greater mistake

than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

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Raising Awareness

• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.

• Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)

• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year.

• Filling up with petrol (~£50 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles

At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai

上海徐汇区高第一小学

• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.

School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

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0

1000

2000

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kWh

in p

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d

No of people in household

Electricity Consumption

1 person2 people3 people4 people5 people6 people

• Social Attitudes have a profound effect on actual electricity consumption

• For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER or COOKING] can vary by as much as 9 times.

Data courtesy of Karla Alcantar

• Significant savings in money can arise from effective awareness raising

• When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times

Raising Awareness

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Average Domestic Consumption of Electricity

kWh % cost Rank kWh % cost RankNorwich 3,535 79% 6 Breckland 5,028 112% 312Cambridge 4,050 90% 80 East Cambridgeshire 5,118 114% 326Peterborough 4,222 94% 116 Forest Heath 5,174 116% 336Ipswich 4,349 97% 159 Babergh 5,252 117% 343Waveney 4,417 99% 181 South Norfolk 5,347 119% 358Broadland 4,618 103% 231 Suffolk Coastal 5,371 120% 360North Hertfordshire

4,645 104% 240South Cambridgeshire

5,498 123% 374

Huntingdon 4,655 104% 243 North Norfolk 5,641 126% 385Great Yarmouth 4,699 105% 252 Mid Suffolk 5,723 128% 390

St Edmundsbury 4,869 109% 280King's Lynn and West Norfolk

5,731 128% 393

Fenland 4,899 109% 287 Uttlesford 5,884 131% 396UK Average 4478 District 1080 4,942

Consumption of Local Authority Districts, • % of average cost of electricity bills compared to National Average • Rank position in UK out of 408 Local Authorities

In Norwich average household emits 1.87 tonnes of CO2

In Uttlesford 3.12 tonnes of CO2

Raising Awareness - there is wide geographic variation

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Involving the local Community -The BroadSol Project

Annual Solar Gain 826 kWh

Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs

Overall Solar Energy Gain

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kWh

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2007 20082009 2010

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Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: Solar Photovoltaic

Photovoltaic cells are expensive, but integration of ideas is needed.

Output depends on orientation and type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year.

The New Feed In Tariff since April 1st 2010 has made things more attractive. 41.3p per unit generated – an extra 3p if exported.

But those who have installed PV will get the benefit from increased payments for electricity by those who have not.

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Energy Source Scale Generation Tariff (p/kWh) Duration

< 31/03/2012 > 01/04/12 (years)

Anaerobic digestion ≤500kW 11.5 11.5 20Anaerobic digestion >500kW 9 9 20Hydro ≤15 kW 19.9 19.9 20Hydro >15 - 100kW 17.8 17.8 20Hydro >100kW - 2MW 11 11 20Hydro >2kW - 5MW 4.5 4.5 20Micro-CHP***** <2 kW 10 10 10Solar PV ≤4 kW new 36.1 33.0 25Solar PV ≤4 kW retrofit 41.3 37.8 25Solar PV >4-10kW 36.1 33.0 25Solar PV >10 - 100kW 31.4 28.7 25Solar PV >100kW - 5MW 29.3 26.8 25Solar PV Standalone 29.3 26.8 25Wind ≤1.5kW 34.5 32.6 20Wind >1.5 - 15kW 26.7 25.5 20Wind >15 - 100kW 24.1 23.0 20Wind >100 - 500kW 18.8 18.8 20Wind >500kW - 1.5MW 9.4 9.4 20Wind >1.5MW - 5MW 4.5 4.5 20Existing generators transferred from RO 9 9 to 2027

Feed in Tariffs – Introduced 1st April 2010

** for first 20000 installations Emergency Review for PV > 50kW announced 09/02/2011

Levels of supportTariff name Eligible

technology Eligible sizes Tariff rate

(p/kWh) duration(Years)

Small biomass Solid biomass;

Municipal Solid Waste (incl. CHP)

Less than 200 kWth

Tier 1: 7.6Tier 2: 1.9

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Medium biomass

200 kWth and above; less than 1,000 kWth

Tier 1: 4.7Tier 2: 1.9

Large biomass

1,000 kWth and above

2.6

Small ground source

Ground-source heat pumps; Water-source heat pumps; deep geothermal

Less than 100 kWth 4.3

20 Large ground source

100 kWth and above 3

Solar thermal

Solar thermal Less than 200 kWth

8.5 20

Renewable Heat Incentive – Announced 10th March 2011

Note: there are significant changes to the RHI since it was first proposed in March 2010

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1.33 billion people

0.94 billion people

Raw materials

1.03 billion people

Products: 478 M

tonnes

CO 2 increase in

3 years

Aid

& E

du

cation

The Unbalanced Triangular Trade

Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years

Water issues are equally important.

Each tonne of steel imported from a developing country consumes ~ 40 - 50 tonnes of water

Ethical Issues

Conclusions• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades

• Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future.

• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of renewable energy and small changes in behaviour

It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take.

• Global Warming will not only have adverse effects on our brothers and sisters in the developing world, but within the next 10 years we could also be faced with energy shortages unless we act now.

• Where would we stand if we had to make the choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room?

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WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/

This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links

And Finally

Are you up to the Challenges facing us?:

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

（直译）：“如果你不改变，你将止步于原地。”

Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnvReader Emeritus: University of East Anglia

[email protected]

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1 recipient of james watt gold medal united nations association march 18th 2011 the twin challenges...

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