2002 pit felker slides
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/13/2019 2002 Pit Felker Slides
1/10
Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002
Global Trade of NPK CompoundsGlobal Trade of NPK Compounds
Current Situation and TrendsCurrent Situation and Trends
IFA Production and International Trade Committee ConferenceIFA Production and International Trade Committee Conference
October 2002October 2002
Qubec
presented by Joachim Felker
President of fertiva GmbH, Germany
Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002 /1
Development of the Complex Fertilizer Market in Western Europe
Complex Fertilizers - Production & Consumption around the World
China - the Future Complex Fertilizer Market
World Trade of NPKs
Summary
Agenda
-
8/13/2019 2002 Pit Felker Slides
2/10
2Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002
Complex Fertilizers:
All nutrients in one grainAll nutrients in one grain
Topic of Interest
3Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002
1965-1975
in Western Europe production capacityrises from 1.9 Mill. to 4.0 Mill. t of nitrogen
0
1
2
3
4
History of NPK fertilizers
1913
start of the industrial ammonia production based onthe Haber-Bosch-Synthesis at BASF Ludwigshafen
1926
start of the Nitrophoska production at
BASF Ludwigshafen
1936
in Western Europe different companiesstart building up NPK plants
1975
1965
Mill.tN
-
8/13/2019 2002 Pit Felker Slides
3/10
4Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002
%N
Market Share Development of Complex Fertilizers
in Western Europe
Source: EFMA
including blends and mixed granules
5Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002
Western Europe
N-Fertilizer Capacities of Important Producers
Mill. t N
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
Norsk
Hydro
fertiva*
Kemira
Fertiberia
GP
DSM
Terra
SKW
Piesteritz
Agrolinz
Melamin
Adubos
de
Portugal
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
UKF
BASF IC
I
APC
F
ert
im.
An
ic
Co
faz
CWH
En
fersa
Norsk
Hy
dro
Gesa
Linz
Carbo
ERT
Q
uimig
.
Ho
ec
hs
t
Cros
K
em
ira
F
isons
G
ard
in.
Supra
Esso
GP
NET
Nit.Fert.
S
uperf.
Se
fan
it.
SIR
Phos.
Fert
Hell.
Chem.
A&W
Nicas
W
indm
ill
2002
1980
* incl. marketing capacity Bayer
-
8/13/2019 2002 Pit Felker Slides
4/10
6Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002
NPK *
Development Capacity Indices in the EFMA Countries
Source: Annual Report 2002
* excluding mixed granules
in %in %
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
89/90
90/91
91/92
92/93
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
Total N NPK
7Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002
! Increasing amount of different formulas
! Low content of P2O5
! Increasing demand for sulfate
! availability of special trace elements as Se
! High Tech Complex Fertilizers as for example
Changes in the Western European
Complex Fertilizer Market
InhibitorsInhibitors
Coated
Slow Release
Development Growth Maturity AgeYears
SalesNPK Cl
StraightsNPK/ S
Urease
Inhibitors
-
8/13/2019 2002 Pit Felker Slides
5/10
8Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002
World NPK installed CapacitiesActual Production and Consumption
North America
Latin America
Africa
Asia
WestEurope
Oceania
Former USSR
EastEurope
mill. t Nmill. t N
0.30.21.4
0.30.21.5
Capacities 9.3 9.9Production 5. 7 6.4
Consumption 7.7 8.8
2000/01 2005/06
2.7 2.62.1 2.12.0 1.80.7 0.70.4 0.40.3 0.3
1.1 1.10.6 0.60.2 0.2
0.2 0.20.2 0.20.3 0.3
0.3 0.30.2 0.20.3 0.3
3.9 4.6
3.14.1
2.13.0
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
- Capacities = NPK- 2005/06 = estimated
- Consumption (mixed granules and blends arenot schown as NPK consumption, except for USA,
Japan, Turkey and West Europe).
9Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002
World
Population Growth
in Bill.
Asia/OceaniaAfrica
Latin-America
North-America
Europe
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2025 2050
-
8/13/2019 2002 Pit Felker Slides
6/10
10Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002
Production and Consumption in Asian Countries
0
0,5
1
1,5 China
0
1
India0
0,5
1
1,5Southkorea
0
0,5
1
1,5 Japan
0
0,5
1
1,5Thailand
0
0,5
1
1,5 Turkey
0
0,5
1
1,5Philippines
0
0,5
1
1,5 Others
ConsumptionConsumption
1995/96 2,6 1,52000/01 3,1 2,1
2005/06 4,1 3,0
ProductionProduction Blends and mixedgranules are included
in the consumption
figures in Japan and
Turkey
mill. t N
11Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002
World Major NPK Exporters
mill. t productmill. t product
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
FSU
Western
Europe
S.Korea
Jordan
Philip.
others
Year Total
1990 5.3
1995 7.4
2001 7.4
Source: Efma
-
8/13/2019 2002 Pit Felker Slides
7/10
12Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002
World NPK Trade Flowsof Major Exporting Countries in 2001 (estimated)
Chin
a
Mexico
Germ.0.3
WE
ChinaIra
n
Thaila
nd
N./S
.Korea
o.1 Japan
Polan
d0.1
Venezu
ela
Kenia
Russia
Thail
./Viet
n.
Jordan
mill. t product
0.1
0.1
1.60.5
0.1
0.10.3
0.1
0.2
S.Korea
0.2
0.2
Philippines
Source: Efma
13Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002
World Major NPK Importers
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
WE
Asia
Central
Europe
Africa
N.America
Latin
America
FSU
Oceania
others
mill. t productmill. t product
Year Total
1990 5.3
1995 7.4
2001 7.4
Source: Efma
-
8/13/2019 2002 Pit Felker Slides
8/10
14Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002
Import Duties
! Africa: 0-5% exception: Algeria 15%
! Asia: 0-5% exception: Saudi-Arabia: 12%
China: 4% - for quantities exceeding
quota: 50%
! South America: 0-10%
! North America: 0%
! Eastern Europe/FSU: 0-11%
! Western Europe 6.5% no duties for GSP* countries
(some countries have preferential duties based on bilateral trade relations)
* GSP = general system of preferences
15Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002
World
NPK Projects* from 1990 to 2004 and later
* New installations and extensions due to technical improvements
Source: EFMA
mill. t Nmill. t N
China 2.46
Thailand
0.15 Poland
0.14 USA
0.13India 0.12
Indonesia 0.11Malaysia 0.06
Turkey 0.06Russia 0.04
others 0.17
Total 3.43Total 3.43
-
8/13/2019 2002 Pit Felker Slides
9/10
16Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002
China
NPK Plants
1000 t product
+ Project:
Dec.2004
+ Project:
July 2003
+ Project:
July 2004
Plants
+ Project:July 2003
601-1.200401- 600
201- 400
1- 200
Project under study
IFA-Quebec13/-20.8.2002
17Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002
China - Reasons for Higher Complex Fertilizer Use
China National Chemical Information Center: Consumption of chemicallyConsumption of chemically
(June 2001) produced NPKproduced NPK
will increasewill increase
annually of an amount of 20%annually of an amount of 20%
! due to high unexploited potential of
fertilizer use in the west of China
! due to the constant expansion of Cash
Crop areas
" due to higher income, farmers tend to
use more and high valuable fertilizers
-
8/13/2019 2002 Pit Felker Slides
10/10
18Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002
WTO Agreement - Liberalisation of Trade
19Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002
Summary
The NPK- market is influenced by certain factors:
" agriculture situation (income of farmers, produced crops)
" subsidies of companies, raw material, energy
" import duties
" population development
" life cycle
! The European Market is looking for new challenges
! China is a developing NPK market. Imports are still high but are gaining less
importance because of own production
! FSU countries are exporters, selling product at low prices. As importers they are of no
importance. Consumption is very low.
! South American markets do mostly have import duties. Furthermore the economical
situation in some major markets prevents imports.