2007 gavea labor report
TRANSCRIPT
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A N T E L O P E V A L L E Y L A b O r M A r k E T S T u d Y
2 0 0 7
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Bakersfield
Mojave
Edwards
Barstow
LakeLos Angeles
Rosamond
Littlerock
Pearblossom
Quartz Hill
Lake Hughes
Newhall
Sylmar
Burbank
Whittier
Pomona San Bernardino
RiversideAnaheim
Santa Ana
Kern
San Bernardino
RiversideOrange
LosAngeles
Ventura
AV EconomicRegion
Simi ValleyVentura
OxnardSANTAMONICAMTNS
TEHACHAPI MTNS
SANBERNARDINO MTNS
PACIFIC OCEAN
EDWARDS AIR FORCEBASE
Lake Elizabeth
Green ValleyCastaic
Valencia
RedondoBeach
Acton
LeonaValley
SantaClarita
Boron
Randsburg
N
Antelope Valley Region Covers Roughly 2,800 Suare Miles
Following Sub-Regions Added
Ridgecrest Area Added 2006
Tehachapi Area Added 2003
A N T E L O P E V A L L E Y A r E A O V E r V I E W
Area Is Developing As A DestinationFor Regional Economic GrowthRising Importance Evident From Following
Forms o Growth Since 2000:
Area Population 2.78% Annually
12,620 Per Year
243 New Residents Move In Each Week
Area Households 2.86% Annually
4,170 Per Year
80 New Households Arrive Each Week
Resident Workers 1.56% Annually2,710 Per Year
52 Additional Residents Join Workorce Each Week
Local Workers 1.78% Annually
2,040 Per Year
39 New Local Jobs Go To Residents Each Week
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Antelope Valley Hosts Sizeable Pool O High-Quality Workers Resident workorce eceeds 184,000 workers (actively working)
Adult labor orce eceeds 195,000 workers (working or seeking work)
Potential labor orce can readily eceed 238,000 workers through greater
employment o adult students and homemakers
Resident Workorce Is Well-Educated Share o workers with college education higher than LA County
40% o ull-time workers have college education
33% o adults moving to the area within the last 4 years are college educated
Household Residents Are Motivated To WorkTo Extent Jobs Are Available
1.13 adults per household currently work (payroll and sel-employed workers)
The ratio wage-earner residents per household (0.97) eceeds same ratio
describing Kern County (0.86) or The Inland Empire (0.90)
Long Job Commutes Still Required O Many Resident Workers Share o workers that must travel to jobs outside o Antelope Valley
has fuctuated between 32% and 34% o all workers or past 7 years
61,600 resident workers must travel an average o 1-hour each way tojobs outside the Antelope Valley region work commuters
Local Job Opportunities Highly Desired By Work Commuters 65% o resident workers that travel 60 minutes or longer to work are very likely
to change jobs to reduce daily commute
Many New Local Job Opportunities Can Be ProvidedAt Prevailing Local Wages
Roughly one-third o all work commuters report lower annual earnings than the
average ($44,630 pear year) describing local workers Antelope Valley has a good mi o local jobs at all earning levels but more
rapid epansion needed to reduce workorce commuting
Targeting Work Commuters And Associated IndustriesRemains A Challenge
8 o the top 10 commuter industries account or 38% o commuters
8 o the top 10 city destinations account or 20% o commuters
L A b O r M A r k E T H I G H L I G H T S A N d C H A L L E N G E S
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H O u S E H O L d P r O F I L E
January 007 Estimate:Population Base Totals Nearly
506,400 People
Residents Occupy
162,770 Households
Nearly 60% o Households Live In
City o Palmdale
City o Lancaster
Recent Infu Particularly Evident In Palmdale And East Kern County Communities
TIME LIVING IN AREA
ANTELOPE
VALLEY
CITY OF
LANCASTER
CITY OF
PALMDALE
UNINCORP.
L.A. CO.
EASTERN
KERN CO.
Less Than 4.0 Years 16.8% 14.0% 18.0% 13.3% 20.7%
4.0 to 6.9 Years 11.4% 5.7% 17.0% 10.7% 12.0%
7.0 to 14.9 Years 18.4% 19.0% 21.7% 17.3% 14.7%
15 Years & Longer 53.5% 61.3% 43.3% 58.7% 52.7%
44% rom other Areas o LA County
3% rom other Areas o Kern County
25% rom other Areas o Caliornia
28% rom Out o State
Recent Inux o People Moving to Region ReducingAverage Time Households Report Living In Area
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1997 2000 2003 2007
Years Living in anteLope vaLLeY area
AVERAG
EYEARS
Lancaster
29%
Palmdale
30%
Unincorp. LA Co17%
E Kern Co24%
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7+
2.99 Persons Per Household Essentially The Same As Los Angeles CountyFewer 1-Person Households But Greater Share O Households With 2 to 4 Persons
3.03 Per Household City o Lancaster
3.31 Per Household City o Palmdale
2.88 Per Household Los Angeles County Area
2.65 Per Household Eastern Kern County Area
Average Household Size Varies By Geographic Sub-Area:
Children Under 18 Years o Age Comprise 29% o The Resident Population
Seniors 65+ Years o Age Represent 13% o The Areas Population
Children Under 18 Years o Age Live In 41% o Area Households
17% o Area Households Have Children Who Are All Younger Than 12
Seniors 65+ Years o Age Live In 22% o Area Households
17% o Area Households Are Occupied Eclusively By Seniors
Educational Achievement O Residents Continues To RiseEDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT 1997 2000 2003 2007
High School or Less 41% 42% 37% 36%
Post High-School Training 36% 35% 40% 33%
College/Graduate Degree 23% 23% 23% 31%
.% O Adults Arriving Within Last Years Have College Or Graduate Degree
H O u S E H O L d P r O F I L E
Distribution of househoLD bY size
PER
CENTOFTOTAL
PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD
Los Angeles County
Antelope Valley
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Average Annual Income O Antelope Valley Households Is Estimated At $65,600About 6% Below Overall Average For Los Angeles County o $69,800
The Distribution o Household Income Compares Favorably To Los Angeles County
Signicantly Fewer Low-Income Households
Strong Representation In The $50,000 to $150,000 Income Ranges
Household Income Varies by Select Household Groups in Antelope Valley
ALL
HOUSEHOLDS
IN AREA
4+ YRS
IN AREA
15+ YRS HOMEOWNER RENTER
Average Household Income $65,600 $67,900 $69,200 $72,200 $38,100
Share o Area Households 100.0% 16.8% 53.5% 80.6% 19.4%
Income Distribution O Newer Households SuggestsHigh Skills And Work Participation
H O u S E H O L d P r O F I L E
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Under$20,000
$20,000-$30,000
$30,000-$40,000
$40,000-$50,000
$50,000-$75,000
$75,000-$100,000
$100,000-$150,000
$150,000or More
househoLD income Distribution
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Los Angeles County
Antelope Valley
PERCEN
TOFTOTAL
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Under
$20,000
$20,000-
$30,000
$30,000-
$40,000
$40,000-
$50,000
$50,000-
$75,000
$75,000-
$100,000
$100,000-
$150,000
$150,000
or More
anteLope vaLLeY househoLD income Distribution
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
PER
CENTOFTOTAL
All Antelope Valley Households
In Areas Less Than 4 Years
Homeowner Households
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Prospect O Homeownership an Important FactorDriving Antelope Valley Growth80.6% Homeownership Greatly Eceeds National Average O 67.5%
Large Share O Homeowner Households Have Paid O Their Mortgage1 out o 3 Homebuyers Living In Area 15+ Years
1 out o 5 Homebuyers Living in Area less than 4 Years
The Median Price O Housing Has Increased In Antelope Valley And
Throughout The Los Angeles County Metro Region
HOUSING VALUE REFERENCE LOS ANGELES LANCASTER PALMDALE KERN CO.
Median Price Increase 2003-07 70% 100% 71% 95%
Median Sale Price July 2007 $550,000 $325,000 $345,000 $257,500
Median Price % o LA County 100% 59% 63% 47%
Despite Recent Price Increases, Housing In Antelope Valley Remains A Good Long-Term Value
And Provides An Aordable Living Environment For Working Families
HOUSEHOLD GROUP
AVG. ANNUAL
INCOME
AVG. MORTGAGE PAYMENT PAYMENT AS
% OF INCOMEMONTHLY ANNUAL
All Homeowner Households $72,200 $1,390 $16,710 23%
Living in Area Under 4 Years $67,900 $1,860 $22,360 33%
Living in Area 15+ Years $69,200 $1,220 $14,620 21%
Average Mortgage Payments Reported by Area Households Reect a Manageable Living Expense,
Even or Recent Arrivals to The Antelope Valley Region
H O u S E H O L d P r O F I L E
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Under$1,000
$1,000-$1,399
$1,400-$1,799
$1,800-$2,199
$2,200-$2,599
$2,600-$2,999
$3,000or More
MortgagePaid Off
mortgage paYment bY tenure in area
MONTHLY PAYMENT
SHA
REOFTOTAL All Homeowner Households
In Area Less than 4 Years
In Area 15+ Years
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Householders Generally Remain Positive About CurrentLiestyle Conditions In The Antelope Valley Area
Recent Malaise In Housing Industry And Related Economic News IsContributing To Interim Reservations Compared To Long-Term Sentiment
H O u S E H O L d P r O F I L E
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 4.0
Local Job Opportunities 2.17
Local School System 2.66
Community Services 2.98
Housing Affordability 2.71
satisfaction with LifestYLe conDitions
SATISFACTION SCOREVery Dissatised Very Satised
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
JobOpportunities
Schools CommunityServices
HousingAffordability
LifestYLe attituDes
SHARESATISFIED
2007 Sentiment
Long Term Sentiment
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Excluding Adults Out o Work Over Year -Eective Unemployment Rate is .%
L A b O r F O r C E P r O F I L E
Part-time(20-39 hours)
9.8%
Part-time
(20+ hours)5.2%
UnemployedLabor Force
5.9%
Full-time(40+ hours)
79.2%
Less Than1 Month
13.9%
Between1 & 3 Months
9.2%
Between3 & 6 Months
5.0%
Between6 & 12 Months
8.0%
Over 1Year Ago
63.9%
About 55% o Area Adults Indicate They AreCurrently Working or Still Actively Seeking Work
2007 ADULT LABOR FORCE - 195,900
Adults Who Are Unemployed Include Two Specifc Groups:Unemployed Less Than 1 Year - Actively Seeking WorkUnemployed More Than 1 Year - Disabled/ExtenuatingCircumstances
ADULTS CURRENTLY NOT WORKING -TIME SINCE LAST EMPLOYED
45% O All Adults Are Not Part o the Current Labor
Force or Various Reasons
REASONS ADULTS NOT IN LABOR FORCE
Disabled/Etc.
14.5%
Homemaker
13.6%
Student
12.5%
Retired
59.3%
184,400 Adults Are Active Workorce
Participants - Resident WorkorceResident Workorce Equates to 1.13 WorkersPer Household on Average
Antelope Valley Workorce ParticipationCompares Favorably With Other InlandArea Markets
Excluding Sel-Employed Individuals, ResidentWorkorce Still Compares Well at 0.97 PayrollWorkers Per Household
ACTIVE RESIDENT WORKFORCE - 184,400
WorkFull-time
84%
WorkPart-time
16%
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
Antelope
Valley
LA County Kern
County
Inland
Empire
1.131.21
0.86 0.90
workers per househoLD - JanuarY 2007
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Resident Workorce Has Diverse Range O Industry Experience
54% o Workorce has Specialized Experience in Services or Manuacturing
75% o Service Sector Experience Involves Population-Serving Activities such as:
Consumer, Education and Healthcare Services
75% o Manuacturing Sector Experience Involves Hi-Tech Production & Assembly
W O r k F O r C E C H A r A C T E r I S T I C S
Services
42%
Military
3%
Govt.
11%
AG/Mine/Util.
4%
Construction
8%
Manuacturing
12%
Trans/Freight
2%
Telcom-Inotech
3%
Whsle Trade
1%
Retail Trade
7%
Fin./Ins./RE
7%
Education
27%
Ent./Amuse.
3%
Health
20%
Consumer
28%
Eng./Legal
14%
Bus./Comp.
8%
Aerospace
55%
Other Mg.Products
25%
Computer-Electronics
16%
Biomedical
4%
workforce service experience workforce manufacturing experience
inDustrY sectors empLoYing resiDent workforce
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Resident Workorce Composed O Diverse Work Groups
UNIqUE WORK GROUPSHARE OFWORKERS
ESTIMATEDPOOL
WORKFULL-TIME
WORKPART-TIME
All Adult Workers 100% 184,400 84% 16%
Payroll Employees 86% 157,700 86% 14%
Sel-Employed 14% 26,700 71% 29%
Working Age Adults - Age 65 95% 176,100 85% 15%
Working Seniors - Age 65+ 5% 8,300 61% 39%
Work-Within Antelope Valley 67% 122,800 80% 20%
Work-Outside Antelope Valley 33% 61,600 92% 8%
12.5% o Senior Age Residents are Active Workorce Participants
33% o Resident Workers Travel to Jobs Outside the Antelope Valley Region
Residents that Travel to Jobs Outside the Region are Work Commuters
% o Resident Workorce Hold Jobs ThatRequire Complex Disciplinary Skills
Proessional/Specialized - Physicians, Chemists, Engineers, Etc.
Executive/Management - Directors, Plant/Facility Managers, Etc.
W O r k F O r C E C H A r A C T E r I S T I C S
Forest/Ag/Other
2%
Service
17%
Const./Mining
8%
Transport/Mat.Handling
4%
Mech./Repair/Prod./Assmbly
6%
Pro./Spec./Tech
30%
Eec./Dir./Fin.
13%
Sales
11%
Admin. Support
9%
occupation skiLLs of workforce
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Regardless O Job Location, Driving Alone Is Primary Method Used To Get To WorkMETHOD OF TRAVEL ALL WORKERS LOCAL WORKERS WORK COMMUTERS
Drive Alone 85% 89% 78%
Ride Share 10% 7% 15%
Train/Bus/Etc. 3% 1% 7%
Bike/Walk/Etc. 2% 3% 1%
Educational Achievement O Resident Workers Is Very Good
LEVEL OF EDUCATION
ALL ADULT
RESIDENTS
ALL
WORKERS
FULL-TIME
WORKERS
PART-TIME
WORKERS
High School or Less 36% 31% 29% 40%
Bus. School/Some College 33% 31% 31% 35%
College Graduate 20% 23% 24% 21%
Post-Grad Training/Degree 11% 15% 16% 4%
0% O Full-Time And % o Part-Time WorkersHave A College Degree EducationResident Workorce has Superior Education Compared to LA County Workorce:
Share o Antelope Valley Adults with College Education Exceeds LA County (31% Versus 29%)
Share with Some College or Technical Training also Exceeds LA County (33% Versus 25%)
Average Worker Earnings Varies Depending On Employment And Commute Status
UNIqUE WORK GROUP
RESIDENT WORKER EARNINGS
AVERAGE % OF OVERALL
All Workers Combined $46,930 100%
Full-Time Workers $50,820 108%
Part-Time Workers $26,410 56%
Sel-Employed $50,890 108%
Payroll Employee $46,290 99%
Local Workers-Inside AV $44,630 95%
Commuters-Outside AV $52,050 111%
Job Travel - 30 minutes $43,760 93%
Job Travel - 60 minutes $52,810 113%
W O r k F O r C E C H A r A C T E r I S T I C S
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Variations In Worker Earnings Also Aected By Full-Time/Part-Time Status
EMPLOYMENT STATUSAG/UTIL/
CONST MFGTELECOMTRADES FIRE/SVCS EDUC GOVT OVERALL
Full-Time 86% 89% 88% 80% 80% 91% 84%
Part-Time 14% 11% 12% 20% 20% 9% 16%
Signicant Dierences Distinguish Average EarningsPotential By Industry Group
Over 0% O Part-Time Workers Earn Less Than $0,000 Per YearNearly 0% O Full-Time Workers Earn More Than $0,000 Per Year
L A b O r F O r C E C H A r A C T E r I S T I C S
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
Agric./Util./Const.
Govt.Educ.Fire/Svcs.Telecom/Trades
MFG Overall
$51,900
$58,400
$44,400$40,200
$46,300
$57,000
$46,900
inDiviDuaL worker earnings bY work status
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
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Good Jobs Do Exist In Antelope Valley At All Earning Levels
Large Share O Residents That Work In Antelope Valley For Less Than$0,000 Per Year Are Employed Part-time
L A b O r F O r C E C H A r A C T E r I S T I C S
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Nearly ,00 Work Commuters Travel Less Than 0 Minutes To WorkEach Day But More Than 0,00 Travel For Much Longer Periods
Over 0% O Work Commuters Travel At Least Hour To Reach Their Job
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
30 Min or Less 76 to 9061 to 7546 to 6031 to 45 Over 90
86%
work traveL time comparison
SHAREOFWORKGROUP
Work Outside Antelope Valley
Work Within Antelope Valley
TRAVEL TIME TO WORK (MIN)
WOr k F O r C E C OM M u T E r S
Work Commuters Represent One-Third O All WorkersLiving In Antelope Valley
Every Day 61,600 Work Commuters
Travel 60 Minutes on Average to
Jobs Outside o Antelope Valley
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
All Workers 32
Part-time Workers
Full-time Workers
Work Outside A.V.
Work Within A.V.
Reside in E. Kern
Reside in Lancaster or Palmdale
20
35
60
19
25
33
resiDent workers - average traveL time to work
MINUTES TRAVELED ONE-WAY
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Work Commuters Leave Antelope Valley For Jobs In The Following AreasWORK COMMUTER
SUB-AREA LOCATION
SHARE OF
ALL WORKERS
SHARE OF
COMMUTERS
ESTIMATED
POOL
Santa Clarita Valley 4.3% 12.9% 7,900
Central-Western Kern County 0.5% 1.6% 1,000
San Fernando Valley 9.1% 27.2% 16,800
Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena 3.0% 9.0% 5,600
Downtown LA Region 9.4% 28.2% 17,400
Greater Metro Region 4.0% 12.0% 7,400
No Fied Location 3.0% 9.0% 5,600
TOTALS 33.4% 100.0% 61,600
About 22% o Work Commuters Car-Pool or Take the Train to Work. Even so, Work Commuter Trafc is Estimated
to Generate More Than 50,000 One-Way Vehicle Trips Every Day on the State Route 14 Freeway
About 45% O All Work Commuters Travel To 10 Specic City Destinations
The Largest Single Share O Work Commuter Travel Is To JobLocations In The Northern Section O The City o Los AngelesOutside The Central Downtown Area
WOr k F Or C E C OM M u T E r S
WORK COMMUTER
CITY DESTINATION
SUB-AREA
LOCATION
SHARE OF ALL
WORKERS
SHARE OF
COMMUTERS
ESTIMATED
POOL
Los Angeles Metro Downtown LA Region 7.0% 21.0% 12,920
Valencia Santa Clarita Valley 1.8% 5.4% 3,320
Santa Clarita Santa Clarita Valley 1.4% 4.3% 2,660
Van Nuys San Fernando Valley 1.3% 3.9% 2,370
SF Valley Area San Fernando Valley 1.3% 3.8% 2,370
Burbank Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena 1.2% 3.5% 2,160
Downtown L.A. Downtown LA Region 1.1% 3.2% 1,950
Hollywood Downtown LA Region 0.9% 2.8% 1,740
Pasadena Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena 0.9% 2.8% 1,700
Pacoima San Fernando Valley 0.9% 2.8% 1,700
TOTALS 15.0% 45.0% 27,750
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WOr k F O r C E C OM M u T E r S
An Inde Rating O Drawing Strength By Sub-Area Provides An Indication Where A Relatively Large Share
O Work Commuter Industry Eperience Is Going Each Day
The Santa Clarita Valley Draws 12.9% O All Commuters, But 1.2 Times That Share O Commuting Educators,
And 1.4 Times That Share O Commuting Government Workers
COMMUTER CONCENTRATION INDEx BY INDUSTRY GROUP
WORK COMMUTER
SUB-AREA LOCATION
ESTIMATED
POOL
SHARE OF
COMMUTERS
AG/MIN
UTIL/CONST MFG
TEL/INFO
TRADES
FIRE/
SVCS EDUC GOVTSanta Clarita 7,900 12.9% 1.0 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.4
Central-Western Kern County 1,000 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 6.0
San Fernando Valley 16,800 27.2% 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.7 0.4
Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena 5,600 9.0% 0.9 0.3 1.3 1.4 0.0 0.8
Downtown LA Region 17,400 28.2% 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.6 1.5
Greater Metro Region 7,400 12.0% 0.7 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0
No Fied Location 5,600 9.0% 2.0 0.6 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.0
All Work Commuters 61,600 33.4% 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.0
Share O All Workers n/a n/a 11.9% 12.2% 13.3% 37.9% 11.0% 13.6%
10 Industry Sub-Sectors Employ The Highest Share O Work Commuters:
HEAVY COMMUTER INDUSTRIES
SHARE OF ALL
WORKERS
SHARE OF
COMMUTE
SHARE OF
COMMUTERS
ESTIMATED
POOL
Ino Technology & Telecom 2.9% 68% 8.8% 5,400
Waste Management 0.8% 67% 2.4% 1,500
Legal Services 2.4% 65% 7.1% 4,400
Trucking/Transports Warehousing 2.4% 62% 7.3% 4,500
Entertain/Recreation 1.4% 55% 4.1% 2,500
Utilities-Eclud Telecom 1.4% 50% 4.2% 2,600
Wholesale Trade 0.8% 46% 2.4% 1,500
Construction 8.0% 45% 24.0% 14,800
Civic & Fraternal Services 1.1% 43% 3.4% 2,100
Manuacturing - Ecluding Hi-Tech 3.0% 43% 9.1% 5,600
24.3% 72.9% 44,900
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Higher Earnings Is One Reason Nearly 32,000 Residents Commute More Than One Hour Each DayTo Jobs Outside The Antelope Valley Region
The Large Employment Complex In The Los Angeles MetropolitanArea Represents Increased Opportunity For Higher Pay But Exactly How Much Higher?
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Under $40K
1.30
$40K-$59.9K $60K-$79.9K $80K Plus
earnings propensitY bY traveL time to work
PROPENSITYVS.ALLWORKERS
WORKER EARNINGS RANGE
30 Min or Less
31 to 60 Min
Over 60 Min
On Average, Work Commuters Report 17% Higher Earnings Than Local Workers
WOr k F Or C E C OM M u T E r S
$30,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
All Workers 61 to 9031 to 6016 to 30 Over 90Under 15
$46,930$42,780
$45,530
$51,060$53,260 $52,350
average worker earnings bY traveL time to Job
AVERAGEANNUAL
EARNINGS
TRAVEL TIME (MIN)
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The Largest Local Employment Centers Representing Job Replacement Opportunities For Work
Commuters Are In The Following Antelope Valley Communities:
LOCAL WOKER CITYDESTINATION
SUB-AREALOCATION
SHARE OF ALLWORKERS
SHARE OF LOCALWORKERS
ESTIMATEDPOOL
Lancaster Antelope Valley-South 23.6% 35.5% 43,550
Palmdale Antelope Valley-South 21.5% 32.3% 36,630
Ridgecrest Antelope Valley-North 4.8% 7.2% 8,890
Edwards AFB Antelope Valley-North 4.0% 6.0% 7,360
Tehachapi Antelope Valley-North 3.5% 5.2% 6,400
Mojave Antelope Valley-North 1.7% 2.5% 3,090Littlerock Antelope Valley-South 1.4% 2.1% 2,580
TOTALS 60.5% 90.8% 111,510
Over One-Third O All Work Commuters That Travel At Least 30 Minutes
To Work Each Day Report Less Than $40,000 Per Year In Earnings
The Share O Workers That Earn Between $60,000 And $80,000 Per Year
Is Essentially The Same Regardless How Long The Travel Time To Work
WOr k F O r C E C OM M u T E r S
A Long Work Commute Does Not Automatically Equate To Higher Earnings
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Under $40K $40K-$59.9K $60K-$79.9K $80K Plus
worker earnings bY traveL time to work
SHA
REOFTRAVELGROUP
WORKER EARNINGS RANGE
30 Min or Less
31 to 60 Min
Over 60 Min
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Overall Workorce Attitudes DescribingSatisaction With Work
Satisaction With Pay
Satisaction With Job Commute
Remain Very Positive And Consistent With Long-Term Sentiment O Past 0 Years
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Type of Job Job Earnings Job Commute
worker satisfaction
SHARESATISFIED
2007 Sentiment Long term Sentiment
Worker Attitudes Grow Increasingly NegativeWith Time Spent Traveling To Work
More Than 70% O Workers Traveling 60 Minutes Or Longer To Work Are
Somewhat Dissatisfed Or Very Dissatisfed With The Work Commute
45 Minutes Is The Estimated Break-Point Where Commute Attitudes Rapidly Decline
WOr k F Or C E AT T I T u dE S
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Less Than 30 More Than 60 More Than 9031 to 60
Job commute attituDe bY traveL time
P
ERCENTOFSHARE
TRAVEL TIME TO WORK (MIN)
Satised
Dissatised
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WOr k F O r C E AT T I T u dE S
Overall % O Workers Are Very Likely To Change
Jobs For Work Closer To HomeShare O Workers Very Likely To Change Jobs Increases With Travel Time To Work
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
15 or Less 61 to 9031 to 60 Over 9016 to 30
workers verY LikeLY to change Job bY traveL time to work
PERCENTOFSHARE
TRAVEL TIME TO WORK (MIN)
Job Travel Satisaction Strongly Infuences Attitude Expressed AboutThe Likelihood O Changing Jobs For Similar Work Closer To Home
Over 70% O Workers Very Dissatisfed
With The Work Commute Indicate They
Would Be Very Likely To Change Jobs
For Work Requiring A Shorter Commute
Very Unlikely0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Very Likely
Job change anD Job commute attituDes
PERC
ENTOFSHARE
LIKELIHOOD OF JOB CHANGE
Very Satised - Commute Very Dissatised - Commute
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Share O Workers Very Likely To Change Jobs Is HighestAmong Commuters
Occupations With High Share O Workers Very LikelyTo Change Jobs Include
WORK COMMUTERS SHARE OF ALL WORKERS SHARE VERY LIKELY ESTIMATED POOL
Travel 31 to 60 Minutes 10% 52% 9,360
Travel 61 to 90 Minutes 9% 60% 9,430
Travel Over 90 Minutes 8% 74% 10,710
Very Likely To Change Jobs 26% 61% 29,500
WORK OCCUPATION SHARE OF ALL WORKERS
SHARE JOB CHANGE
VERY LIKELY ESTIMATED POOL
Transport/Material Handling 2.2% 49% 2,000
Construction 3.6% 43% 2,900
Sales 5.7% 42% 4,400
Mechanical & Repair 1.8% 37% 1,200
Very Likely To Change Jobs 13.4% 43% 10,500
Roughly Out O 0 Workers Travels Between0 And 0 Minutes To Work Each DayNearly The Same Proportion O Workers Travels Longer Than 90 Minutes Every Day
WOr k F Or C E AT T I T u dE S
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Antelope Valley Has Consistently Attracted A Signicant ShareO Household Growth Driven By Economic Expansion ThroughoutThe Los Angeles Metro Area Cities O Palmdale And Lancaster LeadThe Area In Attracting Growth
REFERENCE PERIOD FORNEW HOME PERMIT ACTIVITY
SINGLE-FAMILY & MULTI FAMILY UNITS SINGLE-FAMILY DETACHED UNITS ONLY
LA COUNTY PALMDALE LANCASTER LA COUNTY PALMDALE LANCASTER
2000 16,968 1,072 6.3% 8,372 940 11.2%
2001 18,294 1,583 8.7% 8,308 1,389 16.7%
2002 16,454 1,415 8.6% 8,280 1,415 17.1%
2003 20,903 1,929 9.2% 10,326 1,929 18.7%
2004 26,529 3,475 13.1% 12,763 3,106 24.3%
2005 23,498 4,411 18.8% 12,523 4,333 34.6%
2006 25,202 3,040 12.1% 9,942 2,857 28.7%
January - July 2007 11,918 1,446 12.1% 4,865 1,248 25.7%
Palmdale And Lancaster Account For Less Than 3% O Total Population In The Los Angeles Metro Area But Have
Consistently Captured 25% O New Single-Family Unit Development Activity Since 2004
Credit Lending Debacle Has Impacted Sales Activity In All So-Cal Housing Markets
NEW SALE-RESALE
ACTIVITY PERIOD
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
LOS ANGELES
COUNTY
KERN
COUNTY EST.
INLAND
EMPIRE
SALES
VOLUME
INDEx
VOLUME
2000 (Inde Period) 330,800 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
2001 323,200 0.98 0.97 1.21 1.04
2002 360,300 1.09 1.08 1.18 1.21
2003 395,200 1.19 1.16 1.32 1.39
2004 415,100 1.25 1.17 1.47 1.61
2005 411,000 1.24 1.13 1.59 1.67
2006 319,700 0.97 0.93 1.40 1.32
2007 Proj. 240,100 0.73 0.75 0.78 0.83
The Antelope Valley Housing Market Is Not ImmuneTo Widespread Market Trends
u r b A N E C O N O M I C I N d I C A T O r S
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More Importantly, Antelope Valley Remains A Value-Based Market And Will Continue
To Represent An Attractive Option For Southern Caliornia Households Seeking
Home Ownership Within Economic Reach O Their Earnings Potential
HOUSING VALUE REFERENCE
SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA
LOS ANGELES
COUNTY
KERN
COUNTY LANCASTER PALMDALE
Median Sales Price-July 2007 $505,000 $550,000 $257,500 $325,000 $345,000
As Share o So Cal Median 100% 109% 51% 64% 68%
Resident Population Growth Has Signicantly BolsteredSales Perormance O Area Business And Retailer AbilityTo Serve Consumer Demand Throughout Region
Antelope Valley Is Eectively Served By The Palmdale-Lancaster Retail Comple
2005 Taable Retail Perormance Eceeds $2.8 Billion In Annual Sales
Retail Sales Growing 3.6 Times Faster Than 2000-05 Population Growth
The Net Closest retail Alternatives Located In Bakerseld And Santa Clarita
u r b A N E C O N O M I C I N d I C A T O r S
The Rapid Run-Up In Pricing Since 2003 Is Invariably Leading To Price AdjustmentsMEDIAN SALES PRICE AND
YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE
SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA
LOS ANGELES
COUNTY
KERN
COUNTY LANCASTER PALMDALE
July 2003 $328,000 $323,750 $132,250 $162,500 $201,750
July 2004 $384,000 $405,000 $170,500 $226,750 $275,000
July 2005 $451,000 $487,000 $236,500 $291,000 $325,000
July 2006 $487,000 $524,000 $285,000 $327,500 $376,500
July 2007 $505,000 $550,000 $257,500 $325,000 $345,000
July 2003-2004 17.1% 25.1% 28.9% 39.5% 36.3%
July 2004-2005 17.4% 20.2% 38.7% 28.3% 18.2%
July 2005-2006 8.0% 7.6% 20.5% 12.5% 15.8%
July 2006-2007 3.7% 5.0% - 9.6% - 0.8% - 8.4%
Total Price Increase 2003-2007 54% 70% 95% 100% 71%
Market Value Growth Remains ImpressiveEven With Near-Term Price Adjustments
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Palmdale-Lancaster Retail Complex ReversingHistoric Leakage O Sales Potential
Palmdale-Lancaster Retail Complex Now Attracting Signicant SalesSupport From All Populated Areas O Antelope Valley Region
Household Growth In Antelope Valley RepresentsA Signicant Economic Stimulus
Nearly 2,150 Additional Households Per Year Have Moved To Area Since 2005
Average Income O Households Living In area Less Than 4 Years Is $67,900
For Every $1.00 Spent, New Households Generate $1.28 In Economic Activity
(Excluding Economic Activity Associated With New Home Construction To Host Growth O Households)
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
20052003200220012000 2004
-12%
-8%
-4%
4%
14%17%
paLmDaLe-Lancaster retaiL saLes performance
INDExEDG
ROWTHSINCE2000
Antelope Valley Population Growth
Palmdale-Lancaster Retail Sales Growth
Palmdale-Lancaster Population Growth
City Infow-Outfow o Retail Support
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A Large Share O Labor Income Generated By New Household Growth Refects
Retail And Service Activities In Direct Support O Household Ependitures
RANK INDUSTRY SECTOR ACTIVITY
LABOR INCOME DISTRIBUTION
DISTRIBUTION OF
DIRECT
DIRECT AS % OF
TOTAL
DISTRIBUTION OF
TOTAL
1 Medical Practices (Ambulatory) 13% 82% 16%
2 Hospitals 10% 80% 12%
3 Eating & Drinking 8% 81% 9%
4 Misc. & Specialty Retail 6% 83% 7%
5 Food Stores 5% 83% 6%
6 Auto Dealers & Service Stations 5% 82% 6%
7 Nursing and Protective Care 5% 91% 6%
8 General Merchandise Stores 3% 82% 3%
9 Insurance Carriers 3% 78% 3%
10 Banking 2% 67% 3%
Share O Total Labor Income 60% 81% 73%
Labor Income Generated ($000s) $14,976 66% $22,790
Eective Employment Generated 323 69% 470
Labor Income Generated Per Job $46,400 96% $48,500
u r b A N E C O N O M I C I N d I C A T O r S
LEVEL OF
ECONOMIC EFFECT
TOTAL OUTPUT
($000s) EMPLOYMENT LABOR INCOME
VALUE ADDED
($000s)
Total Direct $67,258 323 $14,976 $26,029
Total Indirect 9,053 63 3,727 5,428
Total Induced 10,669 85 4,087 6,850
Total $86,980 470 $22,790 $38,307
Near-Term Household Growth Epected To Slow As Result O Housing Decline But Remains An Important
Stimulus For Economic Epansion O Antelope Valley
IMPLAN Simulations Suggest Nearly $7.0 Million InLocal Economic Activity Is Generated For Every ,000Additional Households Moving To Antelope Valley
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N O T E S
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