20171225先鋒週報-稅改落地 新興股市續揚

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  • 2 0 1 7 / 1 2 / 2 5

  • 0.06 0.05 0.00

    (0.17) (0.21)

    (0.50)(0.69) (0.76)

    (1.15)

    (2)

    (1)

    0

    1

    12.8 11.9

    0.2 0

    3

    6

    9

    12

    15

    : Bloomberg 2017/12/24

    (%)

    (bp)

    2.481

    0.048

    0.420

    1

  • 4.3

    2.4 2.0

    1.5 1.1

    0.7 0.3

    0.0

    3.5

    2.5

    1.4 1.2 1.1 0.6

    0.0

    (0.1)(0.5)

    (2.8)

    (4)

    (3)

    (2)

    (1)

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    : Bloomberg 2017/12/24

    MSCI MSCI

    (%)

    2

  • : Bloomberg 2017/12/24 ==225=

    (%)

    3.6

    2.5 2.5 2.2

    1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1

    (0.2)

    (0.9) (1.1)

    (1.7)

    (5.0)

    (3.0)

    (1.0)

    1.0

    3.0

    5.0

    3

  • (3.6%)

    2

    (-1.7%)

    (-1.1%) :promsvyazbank43

    4

  • Bloomberg

    5

  • ()Bloomberg : 2017/12/24 ()

    6

  • ()Bloomberg : 2017/12/24 ()

    7

  • 1.6 2.0 1.8

    3.5 3.7

    1.4 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.8

    0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0

    (0.6) (0.6)(1.1)

    (2)

    0

    2

    4

    CR

    B

    : Bloomberg 2017/12/24

    (%)

    $1.186

    113.29 93.35

    $58.47

    $1275.25

    8

    $64.05

  • : Bloomberg

    9

    12/18 () CPI () 11 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

    12/19 () 11 1.297k 1,250k 1,290k

    IFO 12 117.2 117.5 117.5

    12/20 () 11 5.81m 5.53m 5.48m

    10 0.3% 0.3% -0.5%

    12/21 ()

    GDP 3 3.2% 3.3% 3.3%

    11 0.4% 0.4% 1.2%

    () 12 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

    12/22 ()

    12 95.9 97.2 96.8

    () 11 1.3% 1.8% -0.8%

    11 0.3% 0.4% 0.4%

    11 0.6% 0.5% 0.3%

    11 733k 651k 685k

    GDP () 3 1.7% 1.5% 1.5%

    GDP () 3 2.3% 2.2% 2.2%

  • 12/25 (),,,,,

    , () 10 - 106.1

    12/26 () ,,,,

    12 20.0 19.4

    CPI 12 0.5% 0.2%

    11 2.8% 2.8%

    11 1.56 1.55

    12/27 ()

    12 128.0 129.5

    10 0.3% -0.5%

    11 -0.5% 3.5%

    12/28 ()

    11 1.0% -0.2%

    PMI 12 61.8 63.9

    11 -67,500m -68,300m

    12/29 () CPI () 12 1.5% 1.8%

    11 2.8% -1.4%

    : Bloomberg

    10

  • 11

    12/28Paulo GentiloniSergio Mattarella

    12/29

    (12/2728.75%)

    (12/287.25%)

    (12/2818.75%)

  • 12

  • FedECBQE

    OPEC

    13

  • 14

  • (%)

    MSCI 2099.59 0.67 1.94 5.56 9.07 19.89 19.35

    2683.34 0.28 3.11 7.48 10.05 19.85 18.53

    1542.93 0.82 1.56 6.27 9.06 13.69 12.50

    390.28 0.54 0.94 1.66 0.69 7.99 8.42

    295.96 1.23 2.08 2.54 3.52 15.03 15.89

    225 22902.76 1.55 1.49 12.21 13.69 19.74 17.81

    7175.08 -0.14 4.27 8.76 17.46 37.08 40.11

    3297.06 0.95 -1.90 -1.54 4.18 6.00 5.78

    MSCI 1141.09 2.02 -1.14 4.85 12.79 32.34 35.59

    MSCI 579.77 1.50 -2.05 6.36 12.88 38.38 41.05

    MSCI 338.33 0.73 0.48 2.15 12.74 13.92 17.16

    MSCI 2780.93 2.43 -1.31 -5.52 11.54 18.81 22.77

    MSCI 287.78 4.31 3.75 6.75 13.42 17.57 22.33

    Bloomberg 126.06 -0.29 -0.15 -0.53 1.21 2.03 0.81

    Bloomberg 140.32 -0.27 0.63 0.61 1.61 2.04 1.99

    Bloomberg 150.98 -0.70 -0.32 0.37 3.09 5.08 4.59

    Bloomberg 174.11 -0.63 -0.62 1.19 3.87 8.73 10.40

    Bloomberg 181.68 -0.75 -0.61 1.21 2.61 7.01 9.34

    Bloomberg 183.41 -0.67 0.45 1.33 2.91 5.92 7.26

    ETF 51.74 0.25 0.56 4.04 6.13 13.34 15.23

    Bloomberg 167.98 -0.66 -0.47 1.10 3.12 8.00 7.97

    Bloomberg 131.13 -0.18 -0.91 -0.48 3.33 7.02 3.69

    Bloomberg 172.41 -0.77 -0.64 0.36 3.15 7.74 5.31

    Bloomberg 2017/12/25

    15

  • (%) ()

    MSCI 221.25 3.47 4.43 5.00 14.18 1.03 0.64

    MSCI 276.86 2.47 1.60 6.41 15.89 24.78 25.57

    MSCI 127.03 1.12 4.02 6.41 13.29 19.64 18.80

    MSCI 239.68 1.23 3.46 7.86 10.33 22.01 20.99

    MSCI 236.28 -0.06 2.10 4.20 2.75 13.85 14.01

    MSCI 260.55 1.36 3.24 4.70 9.25 22.62 21.75

    MSCI 222.67 0.00 -0.90 11.35 14.68 38.11 36.47

    MSCI 71.08 0.61 3.62 0.39 2.55 2.23 2.07

    MSCI 126.56 -2.84 -3.96 -3.96 -1.45 10.09 10.26

    MSCI 227.18 -0.50 0.97 0.52 0.55 17.81 17.65

    NBI 3363.52 0.50 2.75 -3.00 0.28 21.31 18.00

    AMEX 188.91 4.90 0.39 -7.13 -2.83 3.62 11.81

    REITs FTSE 17046.68 -2.29 -2.42 1.15 1.12 7.11 8.86

    REITs FTSE 1972.40 -2.43 -1.87 0.20 -0.21 2.45 4.57

    REITs FTSE 1412.96 0.24 4.01 5.15 1.75 6.96 8.26

    REITs FTSE 1822.17 -0.71 0.83 4.53 4.32 8.92 11.95

    (/) 1275.25 1.58 -1.07 -2.73 1.45 10.65 12.44

    (/) 16.33 1.68 -4.81 -3.96 -1.38 2.50 3.37

    (/) 7125.00 3.47 2.46 10.35 24.09 28.71 29.12

    (/) 65.25 3.19 3.05 14.76 44.29 14.84 18.53

    (/) 58.47 2.04 0.78 15.42 36.80 8.84 10.42

    CRB 187.88 1.82 -2.26 1.77 12.00 -2.41 -1.39

    799.81 0.66 -1.84 -1.89 -1.55 -4.90 -3.51

    Bloomberg 2017/12/25

    16

  • (%)

    1.1862 0.96 -0.37 0.05 6.01 12.71 13.38

    113.29 -0.61 -1.94 -1.38 -1.26 3.24 3.36

    1.3363 0.32 0.35 -0.75 5.05 8.31 8.82

    0.9880 0.25 -0.75 -2.27 -1.69 3.02 3.85

    1.2729 1.06 0.24 -2.88 3.97 5.52 6.05

    0.7709 0.82 1.50 -2.78 1.73 7.05 7.29

    1079.65 0.88 0.97 4.97 5.46 11.84 11.43

    29.9230 0.24 0.18 0.79 1.26 7.94 7.55

    6.5773 0.48 0.57 0.91 4.25 5.84 5.90

    13556.00 0.10 -0.24 -1.80 -1.71 -0.61 -0.64

    64.0450 0.00 1.37 1.18 0.86 6.06 6.16

    32.7400 -0.71 -0.40 1.06 3.72 9.43 9.54

    1.3437 0.38 0.15 0.54 3.29 7.66 7.70

    4.0798 -0.01 0.77 2.90 5.07 9.96 9.74

    50.1300 0.63 0.95 1.07 0.47 -1.06 -0.32

    12.6212 3.65 9.04 5.66 1.94 8.90 11.05

    3.8093 1.37 2.44 -6.89 -8.18 -7.58 -7.87

    58.3067 0.77 0.21 -1.41 0.76 5.42 4.46

    3.5340 1.36 -0.07 1.95 6.27 18.37 19.18

    262.86 1.67 -0.52 -0.30 5.27 12.03 12.63

    3.9104 0.57 -0.26 -0.73 4.68 10.31 10.68

    3.3376 -1.07 -3.38 -6.37 0.14 -2.47 -1.38

    19.7498 -3.31 -5.84 -9.17 -9.45 5.03 4.56

    18.0732 -3.21 -3.56 -4.23 -10.64 -12.14 -13.02

    Bloomberg 2017/12/25

    17

  • (%) () (bp)

    30 2.8309 14.4 6.7 6.9 11.5 -23.4 -28.3

    10 2.4810 12.8 13.9 26.1 33.9 3.7 -5.6

    0.0480 0.2 1.9 2.0 -0.9 0.2 -0.8

    0.4200 11.9 7.1 -2.7 16.8 21.2 16.0

    0.7420 11.0 7.7 1.0 14.2 5.6 0.9

    1.9120 10.0 14.7 -19.5 0.5 9.7 6.0

    1.4720 1.3 2.0 -15.4 8.6 8.8 7.1

    1.8380 -0.2 -6.7 -59.9 -111.8 -192.6 -196.5

    3.3190 8.8 -7.1 -1.7 10.6 -31.4 -12.1

    12.0100 -45.0 -101.0 102.0 161.0 62.0 86.0

    7.6235 -0.6 -9.3 -2.9 -30.9 -83.6 -86.6

    2.0400 -8.0 -11.0 -48.0 -89.0 -112.0 -111.0

    8.7210 -44.0 -67.4 26.2 15.3 -20.3 -25.4

    10.3730 -1.5 28.3 72.3 -32.7 -102.8 -110.4

    7.7660 26.8 55.5 98.2 93.0 33.0 35.4

    2.4900 6.0 -5.0 22.8 35.5 39.8 39.0

    6.3680 -12.5 -22.0 -5.9 -46.1 -160.5 -149.4

    * 7.2140 8.0 25.6 55.1 75.5 69.9 68.5

    2.3720 -2.2 -2.1 11.4 -1.5 -27.7 -48.3

    : Bloomberg 2017/12/25 *

    18

  • 2008

    2014

    -26.69% -5.61%

    -36.09% -7.28%

    -20.81% --

    -18.82% -5.58%

    -21.11% -12.76%

    -9.52% -5.56%

    Bloomberg() 2017/10/30

    %

    19

  • 106022 (02)7708-8888 407225F-1

    (04)3700-7988 360171

    (07)972-1188 39

    20