51 % fdi
TRANSCRIPT
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CHANDIGARH (Reuters) - India's growth story is still "credible" and the move to open up the
economy to global supermarket chains will help growth and control inflation, the central bank
governor Duvvuri Subbarao said on Friday.
"It's commendable that government has taken the initiative. Let's hope that it will improve the
logistics chain and supply chain management in agriculture," Subbarao said in a speech in the
north-western city of Chandigarh.
Late Thursday, the government approved 51 percent foreign direct investment in the
supermarket sector, paving the entry of firms such as Wal-Mart , Tesco and Carrefour into one of
the world's largest untapped markets.
"It's important for not only raising overall growth but also important for containing inflation and
improving quality of life over 50 percent of population," Subbarao said.
Opening up the retail sector to global players has been a much awaited reform but has been longhobbled by political differences. The Congress-led government's biggest ally Trinamool
Congress is opposed to the move.
The central bank chief said that inflation needs to be brought down to 5 percent initially and then
even lower, consistent with India's integration with global economy.
Subbarao said the current inflation situation is a consequence of both supply shocks and demand
pressures.
Monetary tightening needs to be supplemented by supply side measures to raise potential
economic output, he said.
"Raising agricultural production and productivity is, important for containing price pressures,
raising rural incomes and making growth more inclusive," Subbarao said.
India's inflation, which is largely driven by high food and global commodity prices, plus
expansive fiscal policies, is the highest among major economies in Asia. It's wholesale prices rose
more than expected in October as the cost of food and fuel increased.
The high inflation print, above 9 percent for the 11th month, was further evidence of the Reserve
Bank of India's inability to achieve a breakthrough in its fight against inflation despite 13 raterises since March 2010.
In its October 25 mid-quarter review of monetary policy, the RBI had said that a rate hike may
not be warranted if inflationary pressures start to ease by December.
Slowing growth, stubbornly high inflation, rising interest rates, political gridlock, gloom in the
West and a sliding rupee have conspired to dampen investor and corporate sentiment in Asia's
third-largest economy.
The RBI has lowered the country's growth forecast to 7.6 percent for the current fiscal year
ending in March from 8 percent previously.
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Subbarao says a reduction of federal and state fiscal deficits are important steps for a stable
macro environment.
India's fiscal deficit during April to September was 2.92 trillion rupees, or 70.8 percent of the
full-year target, government data showed. Most expect it to breach the 4.6 percent of GDP target
for the fiscal year.
The government said it would sell debt worth 2.2 trillion rupees, sharply above the budgeted 1.67
trillion rupees in the October to March period.
Subbarao said that India being a emerging economy with a partly open capital account, floating
exchange rate and a monetary policy that takes into account global developments, has to
continue to manage the "impossible trinity."
The impossible trinity refers to the economic hypothesis that a country simultaneously cannot
have a fixed exchange rate, an open capital account and an independent monetary policy.
RUPEE VOLATILITY TO REMAIN
The central bank chief said the volatility in the foreign exchange market will remain until the
euro zone crisis is resolved.
"Until there is a credible solution to the sovereign debt problem in Europe, we will see
movements in the exchange rate," Subbarao said.
He added that the central bank is watching the rupee, but could not say whether it will intervene
in the forex market directly.
The rupee has skidded nearly 17 percent from a 2011 high reached in late July as risk-averse
investors flee emerging markets, increasing the difficulties for a government already struggling
with high inflation, slowing economic growth and a widening trade gap.
The rupee touched an all-time low of 52.73 on Tuesday and state-run banks were spotted selling
dollars in the market in recent sessions, sparking talk of RBI intervention.
Wednesday, RBI deputy governor Subir Gokarn said intervention has been aimed at smoothing
sharp movements in the rupee.