American Unipolarity and

the Rise of ChinaTheo Farrell, CSI Lecture 3, 2011

Realist worldview

Why power matters

Offensive Realist Defensive Realist

What states do

Balance

Bandwagon

Buck-passing

Chain-ganging

Why polarity matters

More stable – less prone to war

Bipolar orders are simple to manage.

Multipolar orders can slip into war due to ‘chain-ganging’ (WWI) and ‘buck-passing’ (WWII).

Bound to Lead (Nye, 1990)

Source of power

USA EU JapanBasic resources

Strong Strong Strong

Military Strong Medium WeakEconomic Strong Strong StrongScience Strong Strong StrongNational cohesion

Strong Weak Strong

Universal culture

Strong Strong Weak

European hegemons

The Hapsburg Empire (Charles V and Philip II)

Napoleonic France

Victorian Britain

Nazi Germany

Wohlforth’s ”big 3”

1. World system is unabiguously unipolar.

2. Unipolarity is prone to peace.

3. Current unipolarity is stable.

Extent of American unipolarity

2 – 1 = 1?

Quantitative + qualitative material advantages

Largest high-tech economy

Expenditure on R&D = rest of G7 combined

Unipolarity = peace

No hegemonic rivalry

International institutions and hegemonic self-restraint (Ikenberry)

Social foundations of hegemony (Reus-Smit)

Why US unipolarity is stable

1.Totality of power gap

2.Geography – ‘stopping power of water’

3.No rising challengers: EU, Japan, China

Soft balancing

‘Actions that do not directly challenge U.S. military preponderance but that use nonmilitary tools to delay, frustrate, and undermine aggressive unilateral U.S. military practices.’

Logic: containing U.S hegemonic power

Trigger: unilateralism under Bush

Soft balancing strategies: territorial denial, entangling diplomacy, economic strengthening, and signaling resolve

Much ado about nothing..

‘Back to the future’: the world in 2025..

‘…will be a global multipolar one’

China and India in C18th: 30% and 15% of global wealth

China = world’s second largest economy

Chinese problems: failing social security net, poor business regulation, hunger for foreign energy, corruption, and environmental devastation

Long-range forecasting: reasons to be cautious

Leaders and their ideas matter

Economic volatility and political change

Geopolitical rivalry and discontinuities

Revisionist state?

Revisionist states value what they covet more than what they currently possess

They will employ military force to change the status quo and extend their values

Randall Schweller, ‘Bringing the Revisionist State Back In, International Security 19: 1 (1994)

Naval balance of power

USPACOM China

Large deck carrier

6 0

Small carrier 10 1

Warships 58 78

Nuclear subs 34 6

Conventional subs

0 62

Implications of Chinese military modernisation

Disrupt US freedom of movement in the region

Narrow US strategic options

SecDef Robert Gates (2009)

Hey big spender

Keeps on growing

Bad debts

US current account deficit = 1.4 of global GDP and China current account surplus = 0.7 of global GDP (2007)

Sept 2008, China replaced Japan as largest foreign holder of US debt (= $1.5 trillion or 46% of US debt)

Daniel Drezner, ‘Assessing China’s Financial Influence in Great Power Politics’, Int Security 34: 2 (2009).

‘Responsible power?’

‘It is time to take our policy beyond opening doors to China’s membership into the international system. We need to urge China to become a responsible stakeholder in that system.’

Deputy Sec of State Robert Zoellick (2005).

China as a ‘social state’

1. Participation in int institutions

2. Compliance with int norms:

(sovereignty, free trade, non-prolif, HR)

3. Attitude towards the ‘rules of the game’

A. I. Johnston, ‘Is China a Status Quo Power,’ Int Security 27: 4 (2003)

Future looks bright…?