Потепление климата – новая проблема общественного...
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Потепление климата – новая проблема общественного здоровья приполярного
населения
Climate warming – new problem of subpolar public health in Russia
Профессор Борис РевичProf. Boris Revich
Аномалии осредненной по территории России среднегодовой температуры воздуха за период 1936-2005 гг.
(www.meteorf.ru/klimat05)
= 0.14oC/10 лет
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
19
36
19
40
19
44
19
48
19
52
19
56
19
60
19
64
19
68
19
72
19
76
19
80
19
84
19
88
19
92
19
96
20
00
20
04
2005
T (oC)
T –Yakutsk-1950-1995
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995
Ожидаемые к середине ХХI века изменения средней годовой температуры воздуха для основных регионов России
Expected by 2050 Increments of Annual Average Temperatures in Russian Regions
Национальный доклад по проблемам изменения климата Минэкономразвития России, National Report on Climate Change, Ministry
of Economic Development, 2003
РегионRegion
Прогноз увеличения среднегодовой температуры ºС
Temperature Increase, ºС
Центральный / Central 0.5-1.0
Северо-Западный /North-West 0-1
Север ЕТС/European North 2-3
Арктическое Побережье/Arctic Coast
2-3
Западная Сибирь/West Siberia 3-4
Якутия/Yakutia 2-3
Дальний Восток/Far East 1-2
Изменение климата и здоровье в северной России – инфекционные заболевания
Изменение климата и здоровье в северной России – инфекционные заболевания
!!!Геморрагические лихорадки– движение на север
!! Деградация территорий вечной мерзлоты – проблемы с инженерными коммуникациями
Сокращение площадей на 12-15%, перемещение границы на 160-200 км севернее
ОКИ , Якутия, 2001, брюшной тиф
!! Паразитозы – дирофиляриатоз – движение на север
! Псевдотуберкулез, листериоз
!? Клещевой энцефалит, туляремия
Потепление климата- инфекционные заболевания
Лихорадка Западного Нила – в 1999 году – вспышки заболевания среди жителей Волгоградской и Астраханской областей, Краснодарского края.
Лихорадка Западного Нила в России в 1999 г.
Волгоград (> 500 случаев, 38 смертей); Астрахань (> 90 случаев, 5 смертей);Краснодар (> 40 случаев, 3 смерти).
Астрахань
Волгоград
Краснодар
0
100
200
300
400
500
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002Чи
сло
сл
учае
в Л
ЗН
>5>35
>500
32 15 14
А.Е.Платонов, ЦНИИ эпидемиологии МЗ РФ
Более раннее начало периода нападения клещей на людей (Северо-Запад России) Рост заболеваемости клещевым энцефалитом - в год заболевает 5-10 тыс. человек Расширение ареала за счет Северо-Западного и Приволжского регионов. Высокие показатели заболеваемости в Сибири и на Дальнем Востоке Ixodes Persulcatus – сдвиг теплового барьерав Якутии _!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Клещевой энцефалит
Геморрагические лихорадки
Лихорадка Крым-Конго. Южные регионы России,
летальные исходы Омская геморрагическая
лихорадка - Природные очаги в Западной Сибири и Казахстане.Тенденция к ее возвращению и
распространению на север.
Особо опасные инфекции
Сибирская язва: Большое количество стационарно неблагополучных пунктов по сибирской язве.Возбудитель сибирской язвы в виде спор может десятки лет находиться в почве. В случае потепления в зонах вечной мерзлоты могут создаться благоприятные условия для вегетации бактерий с высоко вероятным инфицированием восприимчивых животных и опосредованно заражением людей.
Наводнения на севере России1998, май Вологодская область
г. В. УстюгЭвакуировано 10 тыс. человек
1998, май Ленск, Якутия172 нас. пункта
В зоне затопления 475 тыс. человек, Эвакуировано 50 тыс. человек,t днем +1 +3 °С ночь -10 -12 °С, снег
2001, май
8/06/2006
Ленск, Якутия172 нас. пункта
ТаймырОлекминск, Якутия
Эвакуация 23 тыс. человек,больницы
?
T T andand Public Health Public Health:: Arctic and Subarctic cities, Arctic and Subarctic cities,
7 - more 100 thous. peoples7 - more 100 thous. peoples13 - more 20 thous.peoples13 - more 20 thous.peoplesUrban population -2 2000thUrban population -2 2000th
Project: Climate, Air Pollution and Mortality in Moscow in 2000-2005• Center of Demography and Human
Ecology of Institute of Forecasting, Russian Academy of Science, Moscow
• Environmental Monitoring• Meteorology Observatory of
Moscow State University• Environmental Defense (USA)
Variations and Trend of Annual Average Temperatures in Moscow in 1900-2000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
819
00
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Т, С
Source: Moscow Environment and Climate Reference Book, 2003, vol.1, 173.
Annual Average Temperature in Moscow (MSU Meteo Observatory) in 1954-2001 and ЕСНАМ4
model forecast till 2050 [Sherstukov, 2005]
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1954
1959
1966
1974
1979
1986
1994
1999
2006
2014
2019
2026
2034
2039
2046
Т, С
Summer vs. winter concentrations of РМ10, NO2 and O3 in 2000-05, ug/m3
(MosEcoMonitoring data)
Winter Summer
РМ 10 30,7 33,0
NO2 42,0 35,4
О3 19,3 26,2
Regression Equation of Daily Pollution on Daily Temperature
Pollution = Const +βTlag + ε
Summer (2003 – 2005)
Regression coefficients of proportionality between NO2 and T with different time lags in days
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
-8,0 -6,0 -4,0 -2,0 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0
lag between T and Concentration, days
Slo
pe fa
ctor
, ug/
m3/
degr
ee C
Summer (2003 – 2005) Regression coefficients of proportionality between
PM10 and T with different time lags in days
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1,00
1,20
1,40
1,60
1,80
2,00
-8,0 -6,0 -4,0 -2,0 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0
Lag, days
Slo
pe
fact
or,
ug
/m3/
deg
ree
C
Summer
Т and Concentrations wave in August of 2004
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
17.08.04 19.08.04 21.08.04 23.08.04 25.08.04
T
NO2
O3
PM10
Winter (2003 – 2005) Regression coefficients of proportionality
between PM10 and T with different time lags
PM10
-1,80
-1,60
-1,40
-1,20
-1,00
-0,80
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Lag, days
Slo
pe
fa
cto
r, u
g/m
3/d
eg
ree
C
Number of days with extremely high (in summer) and extremely low (in winter)
daily average temperatures in 2000 – 2005 Threshold for temperature anomaly
+ 20.2 + 21.8 + 20.1 - 13.2 - 16.4 - 14.7
June July August December January February
2000 5 2 0 0 3 0
2001 4 20 7 10 0 4
2002 8 21 8 12 3 0
2003 0 12 4 0 6 3
2004 3 4 14 0 0 2
2005 3 7 8 0 0 0
2006 10 18
• Summer Heat Waves: 2001 and 2002.
• Energy system failure, “Black-out” of May 25th, 2005
Heat wave of July’01 and consequent increase of daily mortality from all causes, all ages
-100,0
-50,0
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
28 июн 8 июл 18 июл 28 июл 7 авг 17 авг 27 авг 6 сен
T above average Mortality above background
Moscow, Summer’02
• Extremely high temperatures: 16 days with daily Тmax above 29 °С, accompanied with smog situation – 27 days with haze, high level of air pollution
• Low visibility on highways
• Airports in Moscow Region closed for weather
• Smell of smoke, “empyreuma”
• Eye irritation, breathing problems, headache, etc.
•Total mortality of males:Total mortality of males:
Yt = 146 + (1.18±0.45)T0
•IHD of males:
Yt = 33 + (0.51±0.19)T0
Results of regression analysis – T-related increase in daily mortality
Results of regression analysis – temperature-related increase in daily
mortality
• Cerebrovascular diseases of males:
Yt = 23.6 + (0.6±0.2)T0 ,
Yt = 14.7 + (0.98±0.19)T-1
(T-1 –temperature on previous day )
• Mortality of males from external causes: Yt = 18.9 + (0.40±0.19)T0
Health consequences of heat wave in July’02
632 additional deaths
as direct result of heat wave
Moscow. May 25th, 2005
• Warm weather• Accident at thermal power station• Sharp increase of PM10
concentrations: from average value of 33 ug/m3 to extreme of 71 ug/m3, NO2 concentrations within the norm (MosEcoMonitoring data)
Cold wave – January’06
Age group 75 +:
•142 additional deaths from all causes ( except external),
•including 61 additional deaths from IHD
Т, air pollution and mortality in Moscow in 2002 – 2005
4 causes included in the analysis: All cases, except external IHD (I20-25)Cerebrovascular diseases (myocardial infarction,
cerebrovascular accidents) (I 60-69)Chronic lower respiratory diseases (bronchitis,
emphysema, asthma, asthmatic status) (J40-47)
Seasonal variations of mortality from all causes (except external) in age group 75+. 30-day moving average for 2000 – 2004
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
120,0
140,0
160,0
180,0
200,0
24.07.98 06.12.99 19.04.01 01.09.02 14.01.04 28.05.05
dail
y m
ort
ali
ty
summer 2000
summer 2001
summer 2002
summer 2003
summer 2004
Winter
2000
Winter
2001
Winter
2002
Winter 2003 Winter 2004
Monthly average mortality from ischaemia in age group 75+ (2002-2005)
50
55
60
65
70
75
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
month
avg.
dai
ly v
alue
Т-mortality curve for Moscow and “T of maximum comfort”
(2000-2005)
3020100-10-20-30
T
480,0
450,0
420,0
390,0
360,0
330,0
Mort
Daily Mortality-T relationship in Moscow, 2000 - 2005
• Moscow: linear decrease from -20 to +19 °С
[Revich, Golub, Shaposhnikov, 2006]
• London: linear decrease from 0 to +150C[Keatinge, Donaldson, 2001]
Results of regression analysis
Relative risks were calculated for:
• 8 causes of mortality
(4 causes and 2 age groups)
• and time lags
0, 1, …, 6 days
… and risk factors:• Temperature increase
above maximum comfort (+19ºС)
• Temperature decrease below maximum comfort (+19ºС)
• Increments of daily average concentrations of PM10,, NO2, and O3 by 10 µg/м3
Examples of relative risks of variation of daily average temperature by 1ºC
Cases RR of summer heat (T>20ºC)
RR of cold temperatures
(T<19ºC)
All causes (except
external), all ages
2.8%
(2.0%; 3.6%)
-0.44%
(-0.40%; -0.48%)
Chronic lower respiratory
diseases, all ages
8.7%
(0.7%; 16.7%)
-1.31%
(-1.75%; -0.87%)
Primer of mortality/temperature depencency with different time lags Cerebrovascular mortality, age group 75+
0123456
-8 -6 -4 -2 0
time lag, days before death
rela
tive
ris
k, %
/C
Relative risks of mortality per 10 µg/м3 increase of daily average concentration of pollutant
Causes Age group PM10 NO2 O3
All (except external)
All ages 0.48 - 0.57
75+ 0.96 0.39 -
Chronic lower
respiratory
All ages - - 4.9
75+ - - 7.8
IHD All ages 0.76 - 1.10
75+ 1.11 - -
Cerebrovascular
All ages 0.94 0.66 1.55
75+ 1.39 1.02 1.23
Low Temperatures as Health Risk Factor in Low Temperatures as Health Risk Factor in RussiaRussia
• North territories make about 64% of total area of the RF
• Cold discomfort• Cardio-vascular system• Respiratory tract• Mortality from frostbite • In Russia, about 1,500 people die from frostbite every
year, predominantly males over 20y.o. • There are no deaths cased by frostbite registered in
European countries with cold climate (Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Iceland)
Climate Change and Human Health in Russian Arctic Region
• Infections diseases - Infrastructure break-downs in cryolite zone !
• Emergence and new infectious diseases and parasitosis of sea mammals and humans ?
• Change in food – dietary problems ?• Changes in air quality - ?• Problems with traditional hunting of
northern aborigines - !
WWF-Russia climate programme
Observations of Climate Change Made by Indigenous Inhabitants of the Coastal
Regions of Chukotka
Majority of people survived have noticed climate changes
Negative 11%
Affirmative 89%
Has noticed significant climate changes.Ice breaks up a month earlier than it did
before. Old ice no longer exists.
Walrus stay longer at haul out sites. Birds depart later.
Vladilen Ivanovich Kavry39 years of ageChukchiMarine Mammal Hunter
Required research of climate/health in Russia
• Infectious diseases and T relationship
• Mortality and T relationship in different climate zones (North, Siberia, Far East)
• Climate warming and traditional crafts in Arctic
• National Climate Health Impact Assessment
• Scientific Report about Climate change and health at Russian Arctic
• National Climate Health Action Plan
(as French “Plan Canicule”, UK, Germany, Spain, Finland, etc.)
The following documents should be prepared:
Спасибо за вниманиеСпасибо за внимание !!
Thank you for attention!!Thank you for attention!!
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