111109 åf stockholm

Akt 3 har börjatvem är med, vem tittar på och vem stretar mot

Dennis Pamlin, Founder and CEO, 21st Century Frontiers Stockholm 2011, 10 November 2011

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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

1

Planets available

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

9 000 000 000

Number of people 2050

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

∞

Number of opportunities available

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

0

Time left before we need action

1. Var är vi?

2. Hjältar i ett nytt århundrande

3. Att ta ledningen, inte stå och titta på (hantera de som stretar mot)

4. Möjliga steg framåt

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

Adbusters

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

http://www.maweb.org/en/index.aspx

Where are we?At the end of the road

Where are we?Past the end of the road for the planet

1. There are planetary boundaries. And many of them have been crossed.

2. The ecosystems have started to collapse and conflicts are increasing.

3. Political and scientific agreement that we need to reduce our impact by a factor five/80% as soon as possible (incremental improvements are not enough).

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

The Stockholm Resilience CentreGlobal Footprint NetworkIPCCC

Where are we?At a time when transformative solutions are needed

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

Transformative solutions

Transformative Solution Leadership http://transformative-solutions.net/2.0/files/material/LCL_Transformative_Solutions.pdf

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

1771-The industrial revolution

1829-Steam, coal, iron & railways

1875-Steel & heavy engineering

1908-Automobile, oil, mass production

1971-IT & telecommunication

Based on Ericsson material quoting Professor Carlota Perez, Universities of Cambridge, Tallinn and Sussex

Two different phases of each technological revolution

Time

INSTALLATION DEPLOYMENT

Turningpoint

20-30 years

More efficiently solving old problems - winners among old

players

Applying paradigm to innovate across society

– new winners

Where are we?In the middle of the next industrial/cultural revolution

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

SWEDEN

http://www.global-ict-leadership.net/

Where are we in this country?Sweden in a dangerous space of boringness

Heroes in the 21st century

Being a ICT company in the 21st century

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

ACT 1The Crime

The scientific discussion 1900-1962 =>

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

Climate

changeRainforest

OceansEtc

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

ACT 2The Villain

The pollution debate 1972-2008 (5 May) =>

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

Hunting the villainWhat is called “green” today is often either mainly moving the problemor is not enough (not always bad, but not enough and often actually bad)

From dominant net exporting countries (blue) to dominant net importing countries (red).

Fluxes of Emissions Embodied in Trade (Mt CO2 y-1)

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

ACT 3The Hero

The solution era 2009/11 =>http://www.transformative-step.net/

Remember, remember the 5th of December 2011

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

Booz and Co. 2010

Few understand how much money that must change directionNew ways to provide the solutions we need must be acknowledged and new business successes welcomed.

$350 trillion

to be invested in construction and use of urban infrastructures over the next 30 years to provide basic services such as mobility, heat, lighting, etc. 7 times current annual GDP

BIG PROBLEMSToo many good solutions, that are too good in too many areas

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

http://www.pamlin.net/new/?p=463

Taking the lead

Approach

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

Transformative Solution Leadership http://transformative-solutions.net/2.0/files/material/LCL_Transformative_Solutions.pdf

Direct emissions/ local reductions

Embedded emissions/ low carbon trade

Solutions/ global development

Reduce/move direct problems

Address the Full Life-Cycle

Develop Global Solutions

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

Being a company in the 21st century: Problems

Company’s/Sectors own emissions

FOCUS ON ZERO

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

Being a company in the 21st century: Solutions

Company’s/Sectors own emissions (e.g. ICT sector)

FOCUS ON DRIVERS FOR INNOVATION

The emissions the solution company/sector can help reduce (The ICT sector 15 to >30% by 2030)

FOCUS ON EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

> Give us future directions, lobbying, story chains, etc

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

Embrace transformative transparency

The opportunity hookThreshold levels for transformative change

0-25 25-75 75-90 90-100

Relevance for old ways of providing a service

Relevance for transformative ways of providing a service

Difficulty to implement solution

% Change needed compared with baseline

Threshold level

Identify and lobby for transformative thresholds

Relevance/how easy different solutions are to implement

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

Possible steps forward

Fun!!

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

1. Think about what you already doEnjoy being a leader, but get the numbers in place (magnitudes)

2. ParticipateTransformative step of the day, track out of the box on Twitter, etc

3. Use the nine billion filterHelp drive innovation and export of smart services

4. LegacyCreate/join a transformative teams to be proud of:• Digital Alexandria• 21st Century Office• Plus Buildings• 24/7 Health

5. Set planet positive targetsHelp the planet get what it needs, reduce the footprint in the rest of the world and make sure that the money spent goes to those reinvesting it for the 21st century…

Sustainable development谢谢 !

“Det finns saker man måste göra, även om det är farligt. Annars är man ingen människa, utan bara en liten lort.”

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

Being a company in the 21st century: new clusters

The 21st century infrastructure: The internet of things(>50 billions 2020)

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

Being a company in the 21st century: 0 to 9 bil

Incremental improvementsin existing systems

二十一世纪新前线

21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

Technology leaps

Transformative solutions

Push for a move from problems to new solutions

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�

Long-term GDP trendsGoldman Sachs

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

$USb

n

China

US

Japan

Germany

UK

France

Italy

India

EU-4

Goldman Sachs: The Long-Term Outlook for the BRICs

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