icecube results & pingu perspectives · d. jason koskinen - now 2014 • follow-up to...

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September 2014 Neutrino Oscillation Workshop

Otranto, Lecce, Italy

IceCube Results & PINGU Perspectives

D. Jason Koskinen for the IceCube-PINGU Collaboration

koskinen@nbi.ku.dk

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

IceCube Detector

2

ν

IceCube DOM

•~1km3 of instrumented ice

•Uses ~5k optical sensors across 86 vertical strings to detect Cherenkov radiation

•Deployed 1.5 - 2.5km below the surface

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

IceCube Detector

2

νµ

IceCube DOM

•~1km3 of instrumented ice

•Uses ~5k optical sensors across 86 vertical strings to detect Cherenkov radiation

•Deployed 1.5 - 2.5km below the surface

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Event Movie

3

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Event Movie

3

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014 4

νμ + N μ + X “Track”

νX + X νX + X “Cascade”

Track topology (e.g. induced by muon neutrino) !Good pointing, 0.2° - 1° Lower bound on energy for through-going events

Cascade topology (e.g. induced by electron neutrino) !Good energy resolution, 15% Some pointing, 10° - 15°

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014 4

νμ + N μ + X “Track”

νX + X νX + X “Cascade”

Track topology (e.g. induced by muon neutrino) !Good pointing, 0.2° - 1° Lower bound on energy for through-going events

Cascade topology (e.g. induced by electron neutrino) !Good energy resolution, 15% Some pointing, 10° - 15°

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

IceCube Classic

5

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

High Energy Starting Events (HESE)

6

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• Follow-up to observation of two events > 1 PeV in IceCube search for Ultra-High Energy (GZK) neutrinos

High Energy Starting Events (HESE)

6

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• Follow-up to observation of two events > 1 PeV in IceCube search for Ultra-High Energy (GZK) neutrinos

• Use outermost layer of IceCube as a veto region • Identifies possible muon background

• Enforces neutrino interaction containment

High Energy Starting Events (HESE)

6

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• Follow-up to observation of two events > 1 PeV in IceCube search for Ultra-High Energy (GZK) neutrinos

• Use outermost layer of IceCube as a veto region • Identifies possible muon background

• Enforces neutrino interaction containment

• Focused on brightest events with > 6000 photoelectrons

High Energy Starting Events (HESE)

6

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

High Energy Neutrinos

7

•Ultra-high energy IceCube (GZK) astrophysical search found 2 anomalous background events in 2 years of data

1.04±0.16 PeV 1.14±0.17 PeV

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

High Energy Neutrinos

7

•Ultra-high energy IceCube (GZK) astrophysical search found 2 anomalous background events in 2 years of data

1.04±0.16 PeV 1.14±0.17 PeV

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

!

• 36(+1) events total • 8.4 ± 4.2 atm. muons

• 6.6+5.9-1.6 atm. neutrinos

!

• 5.7σ rejection of only atmospheric neutrino flux

!

• Consistent with 1:1:1 flavor ratio

3-year HESE Result

8

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

HESE-III Sky Map

9

arXiv:1405.5303

• No significant evidence for clustering

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Natural Neutrino Flux (>1 GeV)

10

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Natural Neutrino Flux (>1 GeV)

10

• Combination of conventional neutrino, high energy astrophysical, and possible prompt neutrinos from charm hadron decay

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Natural Neutrino Flux (>1 GeV)

10

• Combination of conventional neutrino, high energy astrophysical, and possible prompt neutrinos from charm hadron decay

CosmicRay

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Natural Neutrino Flux (>1 GeV)

10

• Combination of conventional neutrino, high energy astrophysical, and possible prompt neutrinos from charm hadron decay

CharmHadronX

CosmicRay

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Natural Neutrino Flux (>1 GeV)

10

• Combination of conventional neutrino, high energy astrophysical, and possible prompt neutrinos from charm hadron decay

CharmHadronX

X

Neutrino

CosmicRay

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Prompt Neutrino Flux

11

CharmHadronX

X

Neutrino

CosmicRay

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Prompt Neutrino Flux

11

CharmHadronX

X

Neutrino

CosmicRay

• Prompt flux more closely follows the incident CR energy spectrum (E-2) than the conventional neutrino spectrum (E-2.7 to -3.7)

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Prompt Neutrino Flux

11

CharmHadronX

X

Neutrino

CosmicRay

• Prompt flux more closely follows the incident CR energy spectrum (E-2) than the conventional neutrino spectrum (E-2.7 to -3.7)

• Prompt νe versus νµ channel is advantageous due to conventional νµ bkg

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Prompt Component

12

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• Prompt can be constrained by flux in the 10-50 TeV range • Higher energy is dominated by astrophysical flux

• Lower energy is dominated by conventional flux (pion/kaon decay)

Prompt Component

12

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• Prompt can be constrained by flux in the 10-50 TeV range • Higher energy is dominated by astrophysical flux

• Lower energy is dominated by conventional flux (pion/kaon decay)

• Northern vs. Southern sky comparison weakly breaks the degeneracy between the astrophysical and prompt flux

Prompt Component

12

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• Places upper limits on some prompt models (<1.4 ERS model)

A Prompt Result

13

Atm. NeutrinosAtm. Muons

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Fundamental Physics with DeepCore

14

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

DeepCore

15

scattering

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• Low-energy extension • Closer instrumentation

• Clearer Ice

• Higher efficiency PMTs

DeepCore

15

scattering

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• Low-energy extension • Closer instrumentation

• Clearer Ice

• Higher efficiency PMTs

• Use surrounding IceCube as a veto volume

DeepCore

15

scattering

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• Low-energy extension • Closer instrumentation

• Clearer Ice

• Higher efficiency PMTs

• Use surrounding IceCube as a veto volume

• Oscillation Physics

• νµ disappearance

• ντ appearance*

DeepCore

15

scattering

*Covered later for PINGU

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Neutrino Oscillation

16

~12,700km

IceCube DeepCore

Mena, Mocioiu & Razzaque, Phys. Rev. D78, 093003 (2008)

νµ disappearance

ντ appearance

νµνµ

νµνµ

νµ

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Neutrino Oscillation

16

•Northern Hemisphere νµ oscillating over one earth radii produces νµ (ντ) oscillation minimum (maximum) at ~25 GeV

~12,700km

IceCube DeepCore

Mena, Mocioiu & Razzaque, Phys. Rev. D78, 093003 (2008)

νµ disappearance

ντ appearance

νµνµ

νµνµ

νµ

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Neutrino Oscillation

16

•Northern Hemisphere νµ oscillating over one earth radii produces νµ (ντ) oscillation minimum (maximum) at ~25 GeV

• Beam never turns off

~12,700km

IceCube DeepCore

Mena, Mocioiu & Razzaque, Phys. Rev. D78, 093003 (2008)

νµ disappearance

ντ appearance

νµνµ

νµνµ

νµ

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Neutrino Oscillation

16

•Northern Hemisphere νµ oscillating over one earth radii produces νµ (ντ) oscillation minimum (maximum) at ~25 GeV

• Beam never turns off

• Samples all terrestrial baselines

~12,700km

IceCube DeepCore

Mena, Mocioiu & Razzaque, Phys. Rev. D78, 093003 (2008)

νµ disappearance

ντ appearance

νµνµ

νµνµ

νµ

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• High-purity analysis selected 5293 events over 2011-2014

νµ Disappearance in DeepCore

17

MC Expectation (3-yr)

Type Osc. No Osc.3755 5900

273 -

678 650

418

Atm. µ 54

Total 5178 7022

νµ

ντνe

νNC

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Oscillation Contours

18

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Next?

19

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Two Directions

20

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• Higher energy • Point sources

• Neutrino flavor ratios

• HEX - High Energy Extension

Two Directions

20

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• Higher energy • Point sources

• Neutrino flavor ratios

• HEX - High Energy Extension

• Lower Energy - just past DeepCore at the O(1) GeV sensitivity: • Resolve the ordering of the Neutrino Mass Hierarchy

• Improve neutrino oscillation

• ντ appearance

• non-maximal θ23

• GeV mass Dark Matter

• PINGU

Two Directions

20

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• Higher energy • Point sources

• Neutrino flavor ratios

• HEX - High Energy Extension

• Lower Energy - just past DeepCore at the O(1) GeV sensitivity: • Resolve the ordering of the Neutrino Mass Hierarchy

• Improve neutrino oscillation

• ντ appearance

• non-maximal θ23

• GeV mass Dark Matter

• PINGU

Two Directions

20

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

PINGU

21

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Precision IceCube Next Generation Upgrade

22

IceCube

DeepCore

PINGU

Letter of Intent - arXiv:1401.2046

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• Use existing and familiar technology to infill DeepCore

Precision IceCube Next Generation Upgrade

22

IceCube

DeepCore

PINGU

Letter of Intent - arXiv:1401.2046

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• Use existing and familiar technology to infill DeepCore

• Improve rejection of cosmic ray muon background

Precision IceCube Next Generation Upgrade

22

IceCube

DeepCore

PINGU

Letter of Intent - arXiv:1401.2046

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• Use existing and familiar technology to infill DeepCore

• Improve rejection of cosmic ray muon background

• Primary physics goal is resolving neutrino mass hierarchy

Precision IceCube Next Generation Upgrade

22

IceCube

DeepCore

PINGU

Letter of Intent - arXiv:1401.2046

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

PINGU Simulation Event

23

•9.28 GeV Neutrino, 4.9 GeV muon, 4.5 GeV cascade

DeepCore

DeepCore+PINGU

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

PINGU Simulation Event

23

•9.28 GeV Neutrino, 4.9 GeV muon, 4.5 GeV cascade

DeepCore

DeepCore+PINGU

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

PINGU Simulation Event

23

•9.28 GeV Neutrino, 4.9 GeV muon, 4.5 GeV cascade

•~20 vs. ~50 Hit Modules

DeepCore

DeepCore+PINGU

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

PINGU Neutrino Mass Hierarchy

24

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

PINGU Neutrino Mass Hierarchy

24

1

1

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

PINGU Neutrino Mass Hierarchy

24

1

1

2

2

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

PINGU Neutrino Mass Hierarchy

24

1

1

2

2

•Inverted/Normal hierarchy has up to a 20% difference in oscillation probability for specific energies and zenith angles (baselines)

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Neutrino Mass Hierarchy by Eye

25

1-year exposurePreliminary

Track-Like Events (mainly CC νµ+νµ)

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• Several of the main systematics have been examined

Systematics

26

Preliminary

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Mass Hierarchy Bottom Line

27

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

ντ Appearance in PINGU

28

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• Direct measure of |Uτ3|2

ντ Appearance in PINGU

28

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• Direct measure of |Uτ3|2

ντ Appearance in PINGU

28

cos(Zen)-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0

(GeV

)νE

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

all f

lavo

urs

N)/µν+ eν

-Nal

l fla

vour

s(N

0

1

2

3

4

5livetime: 1 yearPINGU

preliminary

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• Direct measure of |Uτ3|2

• Energy and zenith angle excess in cascade channel

• PINGU plots currently use same initial Boosted Decision Tree as NMH, but secondary selection for `cascades’

ντ Appearance in PINGU

28

cos(Zen)-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0

(GeV

)νE

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

all f

lavo

urs

N)/µν+ eν

-Nal

l fla

vour

s(N

0

1

2

3

4

5livetime: 1 yearPINGU

preliminary

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• Direct measure of |Uτ3|2

• Energy and zenith angle excess in cascade channel

• PINGU plots currently use same initial Boosted Decision Tree as NMH, but secondary selection for `cascades’

ντ Appearance in PINGU

28

Livetime (months)1 2 3 4 5 6

app

eara

nce

(τν

no

Sign

ifica

nce

to e

xclu

de

0

2

4

6

8

10

expectedσ1±σ2±

limitβ=αGaussian approximation

norm=1τνtrue PINGU

preliminary

cos(Zen)-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0

(GeV

)νE

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

all f

lavo

urs

N)/µν+ eν

-Nal

l fla

vour

s(N

0

1

2

3

4

5livetime: 1 yearPINGU

preliminary

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Measuring ντ Appearance

29

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Measuring ντ Appearance

29

cos(Zen)-1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0

Events/year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

µν

τν

PINGUEν∈[1,80] GeVpreliminary

νµνe

ντ

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Measuring ντ Appearance

29

Livetime (months)1 2 3 4 5 6

nor

mal

izat

ion

τνTr

ue

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

σ5expectedσ1±σ2± norm=1τνmeasured

PINGU

preliminary

cos(Zen)-1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0

Events/year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

µν

τν

PINGUEν∈[1,80] GeVpreliminary

νµνe

ντ

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• IceCube is opening a new window on neutrino astronomy with 5.7σ observation of astrophysical neutrinos and probing atmospheric charm meson production

!

• Potential with PINGU to quickly resolve the ordering of the neutrino mass hierarchy in addition to enhancing other physics (ντ appearance, non-maximal θ23, O(1) GeV dark matter,…)

Conclusions

30

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014 31

• IceCube is opening a new window on neutrino astronomy with 5.7σ observation of astrophysical neutrinos and probing atmospheric charm hadron production

• Potential with PINGU to quickly resolve the ordering of the neutrino mass hierarchy in addition to enhancing other physics (ντ appearance, non-maximal θ23, O(1) GeV dark matter,…)

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014 31

• IceCube is opening a new window on neutrino astronomy with 5.7σ observation of astrophysical neutrinos and probing atmospheric charm hadron production

• Potential with PINGU to quickly resolve the ordering of the neutrino mass hierarchy in addition to enhancing other physics (ντ appearance, non-maximal θ23, O(1) GeV dark matter,…)

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

32

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

Backup

33

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

•Measurements • Cosmic Ray Anisotropy - arXiv:1105.2326

• Diffuse Neutrino Flux - arXiv:1104.5187

• Atmospheric Neutrino Spectrum - arXiv:1010.3980

• Neutrino Oscillation - arXiv:1305.3909

• Atmospheric Electron Neutrino Flux - arXiv:1212.4760

•Searches • Supernova 2008D - arXiv:1101.3942

• Neutrino Induced Cascades - arXiv:1101.1692

• Neutrino Emission Constraints on 2010 Crab Flare - arXiv:1106.3484

• Point Sources - arXiv:1406.6757, 1307.6669

• Gamma Ray Burst Neutrino Emission - arXiv:1204.4219

• Slow Magnetic Monopole - arXiv:1402.3460

• Dark Matter - arXiv:1406.6868, 1303.3473, 1212.4097

Science Portfolio (Partial)

34

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

HESE-III Event Breakdown

35

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014 36

Potential High Energy Extension (HEX)DeepCoreIceCubeDecaCube (1/2/3)

Spacing 1 (120m): IceCube (1 km3) + 98 strings (1,3 km3) = 2,3 km3

!Spacing 2 (240m):

IceCube (1 km3) + 99 strings (5,3 km3) = 6,3 km3

!Spacing 3 (360m):

IceCube (1 km3) + 95 strings (11,6 km3) = 12,6 km3

Chosen geometry not optimum (i.e. for HESE) … historically chosen to demonstrate that we do respect boundary conditions

*courtesy of C. Wiebusch (RTWH Aachen)

D. Jason Koskinen - NOW 2014

• Probes lower mass region

!

• Independent test of Spin-Independent results from direct detection experiments

Dark Matter in PINGU

37

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