jikun huang, jun yang center for chinese agricultural policy, cas scott rozelle

China’s Rapid Economic Growthunder Globalization:

Implications for China and the Rest of world

全球化背景下中国经济的高速发展-- 对中国与其它国家的涵义 / 暗示

Jikun Huang, Jun YangCenter for Chinese Agricultural Policy, CAS

Scott RozelleUniversity of California, Davis

China’s economy grew at about 9%annually in 1979-2004

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1979-84 1985-95 1996-03 2004

过去 25年中国经济以年均 9%左右的速度增长

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

19781980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004

GDP

GDP/ person

(Export+import)/GDP （ 进口 +出口） /GDP

10% in 1980 60% in 2005

Economy now is more than 10 times as that in 1978中国现在的经济总量是 1978 年的 10 倍多

If real GDP will grow as we project, China’s economy in 2030 will be about 6 times as large as it was in 2004

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

如果中国的经济能以我们所预测的速度增长，2030 年的经济总量将是 2004 年的 6倍

6.5%8% 7.5% 7%

Real GDP(1980=100)

全球性的关注问题Global Concerns

What will be opportunities and challenges from the rising China’s economy for the rest of world?

• Food security?• Resource security?• Overall economic growth?

中国经济的崛起对其它国家发展的机遇和挑战如何？

•食物安全？•资源安全？•总体经济的增长？

Rural poverty incidence (%) in China, 1978-2003

农村贫困发生率 (%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Under official poverty lineUnder $1/day in PPP

Shares of rural population lived under $1/day (in PPP) vary substantially across provinces (2003)

农村贫困发生率在不同地区存在显著的差异

Income disparity enlarged across regions

Per capita income 人均年收入 (at constant 2000 prices)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Rural Urban

城乡收入差距不断扩大Enlarging income disparity between rural and urban

Annual growth rates of meat and fruit productions (%)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1970-78 1979-84 1985-95 1996-00

Meat

Frui t

畜牧业快速发展：增加饲料需求园艺业快速发展：同粮食争耕地

Implications: rising demand for feed and shifting land from grain to other crops

中国玉米、水稻和小麦生产年均增长率Annual growth rates (%) of maize, rice and wheat p

roduction in China, 1980-2004

-5

0

5

Mai ze Ri ce Wheat

1980s 1990s 00-04

Slowdown of grain production, China’s WTO accession andfurther trade liberalization have led to many concerns on

food (grain) security and farmer’s income

中国关注的问题China’s Concerns

• 粮食安全和农民收入• 经济增长:主要问题不是经济速度，而是公平与协调发展

• 协调经济发展与资源/环境的可持续问题

• 不仅关注本国也关注世界经济的可持续发展

五个统筹发展问题城乡/区域/经社/人与自然/国内外

• Grain security and farmer income

• Growth: major issue is not growth rate but equity

• Development: not only economic but also resource & environment

• Not only China itself, but also global sustainable development

“5 Balanced Growths”

Outline for the rest of presentation•回顾中国贸易自由化过程

•研究方法•贸易自由化对中国的影响：– 总体经济– 粮食和农业– 贫困人口

•中国经济崛起对其它国家的影响

•结论与讨论

• Trends of China’s trade liberalization

• Methodology

• Impacts of trade liberalization in China on:– Overall economy– Food and agriculture– The poor

• Implications of China’s rapid growth for ROW

• Concluding remarks

农产品关税Agricultural tariff rate (%):

Prior to WTO accession, 1992-2001: 42.2% 21% WTO commitment, 2001-2005: 21%-15%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1992 1998 2001 2005

粮食和大豆的名义保护率（ % ）Nominal Protection Rates (NPR) for cereal and soybean

(Pd-Pw)/Pw x 100

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

78-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-97 98-99 00-01 02-03 2004

Rice Wheat Maize Soybean

农产品贸易平衡Agri. Trade Balance by Factor Intensity (mil US$)

-10-8-6-4-202468

1012

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Land i ntensi ve productsLabor i ntensi ve products

Net ExportsUS Dollars, Billions

土地密集型农产品的名义保护率 , 2001 年NPRs (%) for land-intensive products (uncompetitive), 2001

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Soybean Cereal Rapeseed Sugar Cotton Milk

劳动力密集型的农产品名义保护率 , 2001 年NPRs (%) for labor-intensive products (competitive), 2001

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Pork Poultrymeat

Fish Fruit Vegetable

Also large potentials for increasing exports of commodities in which China produces at below market costs

研究方法 Methodologies

• GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Program)– Impacts of trade liberaliz

ation on China

– Impacts of the rapid rising China’s economy in the rest of world

• CAPSiM, Partial equilibrium

– Impacts of trade liberalization by region

– Impacts of trade liberalization on different household

• GTAP, 全球贸易分析模型– 贸易自由化对 中

国的影响

– 中国经济崛起对 其它国家的影响

• CAPSiM, 部门均衡模型– 贸易自由化对中国

不同地区的影响– 贸易自由化对中国

不同农户的影响

Domestic policy

interventions Trade

liberalization: GTAP

CAPSiM

Aggregate impacts: by commodity at national level

Price transmission models

Impacts by region: Production Consumption Income ….

Impacts on poor/richer: Production Consumption Income ....

A framework for regional model and policy interventions analysis

模拟方案 : 贸易自由化 Scenarios: trade liberalization

• 基准方案( 不加入 WTO 假设 )

• 贸易自由化方案– 入 WTO 承诺实施 (2001-2005)

– 多哈回合 (2006-2010)综合 Cairns/USA/EU 方

案

• Baseline (no WTO accession)

• Trade liberalization– WTO accession

(2001-2005)

– Doha Round (2006-2010)

Mixture of Cairns/USA/EU proposals

模拟方案 : 中国经济崛起 Scenarios: the rising China’s economy

• Baseline• High GDP growth (10%

higher in growth rates)

– Lack of policy response– Appropriate policy response

higher productivity growth in food sector (0.47% per year)

promoting energy saving technology

(the bias technology improvement in China’s manufacture and service sectors in energy saving, -0.47% per year)

• 基准方案• 高 GDP 增长方案

– 政府不进行适当的干预– 政府做适当的反应与干预

通过科技投入提高食物生产率 ( 年均多增长 0.47%)

发展节能技术和开发新能源 ( 假设工业和服务业的节能

技术推广，使可年均节能 0.47%)

年均 GDP 增长率Assumptions of Annual GDP growth (%)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1980s 1990s 2001-2005

2006-2010

2011-2015

2016-2020

Basel i ne Hi gh-growth

中国在世界 GDP 的比例China’s GDP share in the world

3. 83. 8 4. 5

4. 75. 5

5. 8 6. 3

6. 8 7

7. 7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2001 2005 2010 2015 2020

Baseline High GDP growth

假设的依据与数据来源Sources of assumptions

• GDP WB, IIASA, ADB, Terries et al (2000)

• Physical Capital WB, ADB, Terries etc (2000)

• Population WB, Terries et al (2000) —Skilled labor

—Unskilled labor

• Natural resources Frank et al (2004)

Calibration results of TFP生产力增长率的标定结果

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Grai n other crops Meats energy

2001-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020

研究结果 Results

•贸易自由化对中国的影响

• Impacts of trade liberalization in China

加入 WTO及多哈回合对中国经济的影响

Impacts of China’s WTO accession and Doha round in China, 2010 (compared with baseline, %)

• 国民经济增加 80 亿美元 , 0.8% 左右 ,• 农业生产： +3% to +4%

• National income: + 8 billion US$, +0.8%• Agricultural production: +3% to +4%

加入 WTO及多哈回合对中国农业生产影响Impacts of China’s WTO accession and Doha round on

agricultural production in 2005/2010 (compared with baseline, %)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

食物、饲料和纤维的自给率 (under trade liberalization)

Self-sufficient levels (%) of food, feed and fiber

0102030405060708090

100110

2001 2020

WTO 对各地区农业生产的影响 ,yuan/ 户， 2005 年Impacts of WTO on agri. output for average farm by province in China, 2005 (%)

区域农业生产结构 :优势 %-非优势 %Regional agricultural production structure: (importable output-exportable output)/total output %

Impacts of WTO on agricultural output on farmers under poverty in China in 2005 (yuan/household)

WTO 对贫困农户农业生产的影响 , 2005 年 ( 元 / 户 )

农业部门的受益仅是中国总受益的一小部分Gains from agriculture is only a small part of

overall economic gains from trade liberalization

USA proposal, 8.2 billion $

16%

1%

0%

59%

12%

3%

9%Agricultural trade OECD

Domestic agricultureOECD

Agriculture non-OECD

Manufactures OECD

Manufactures non-OECD

Services OECD

Services non OECD

加入 WTO及多哈回合对中国经济的影响Summary: impacts of China’s WTO accession and

Doha round in China

• 总体经济：正面影响• 农业部门：

– 总体上正面影响– 粮食安全不会受到威胁– 沿海和南部地区收益– 大部分西 / 北部地区受损– 收益：贫困的 < 富裕的

地区和贫富差距进一步扩大

• Overall economy: positive

• Agriculture ：– Overall positive – Not threaten to grain security – Positive impacts in rich

regions (coastal and south)– Negative impacts in poor

regions (western and north)– Gains ： the poor < the rich

Income disparity will be enlarged

•中国经济崛起对其它国家的影响

• Implications of China’s rapid

growth for the rest of world

基准方案：农产品净出口， 2001 年和 2020 年Baseline: agricultural net export in 2001 and 2020

(billion US$)

- 12

- 10

- 8

- 6

- 4

- 2

0

2

4

6

2001 2020

基准方案：中国农产品净出口占世界总出口量的比例 (%), 2001 年和 2020 年

Baseline: Percentage of China’s net export in world export in 2001 and 2020

- 30

- 25

- 20

- 15

- 10

- 5

0

5

10

2001 2020

基准方案：中国净出口 , 2001 年和 2020 年Baseline: Net export in 2001 and 2020 (billion USD)

- 100

- 50

0

50

100

150

2001 2020

基准方案：中国净出口占世界出口的比例Percentage of China’s net export in world tota

l export in 2001 and 2020

Energy

Mineral

Textile+apparel

Manufacture

Service

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Energy

Mineral

Textile+apparel

Manufacture

Service

2001 2020

高经济增长方案对世界各地区经济的影响Impacts of high GDP growth scenario:

Welfare change (%) in different regions in 2020

HK

+Taiwan

Japan+S.K

oreaIndia

Other A

sianA

usNzl

NA

FTA

S. A

merica

Enlarged E

UR

ussia

RO

W

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

HK

+Taiwan

Japan+S.K

oreaIndia

Other A

sianA

usNzl

NA

FTA

S. A

merica

Enlarged E

UR

ussia

RO

W

高经济增长方案对世界各地区经济的影响Impacts of high GDP growth scenario:

Welfare change comparing to baseline in 2020

Chi na:ML84%

Chi na:ML

Chi na: HK+TW

J apan+SKorea

Other Asi a

AusNzl

NAFTA

SAM

EU

Russi a

ROW

高经济增长方案对中国净出口的影响 , 2020 年Impacts of high GDP growth scenario

Net export change comparing to baseline (%)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

政策反应：中国净出口的变化 , 2020 年 Net exports under high growth scenario:

with and without policy responses (billion USD)

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15 High growth (HG)

HG+ policy response

政策反应：中国净出口占世界总出口的比例 : Net exports as share (%) of world total exports under high

growth scenario: with and without policy responses

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

High growth (HG)

HG+ policy response

结论和政策涵义 : 贸易自由化Concluding Remarks: Trade Liberalization

• Positive impacts at national income, including agriculture, though they account for only a small part of overall economic growth

• Benefits from non-agricultural sectors are much large than that in agriculture

• 对国民经济和农业部门都有正面的影响，虽然它们在中国经济总量增长中的比例不大

• 获利主要来自非农部门

结论和政策涵义 : 贸易自由化Concluding Remarks: Trade Liberalization

• Trade liberalization will not threaten China’s grain security

• Regional income disparity will be enlarged as the impacts differ largely among regions

• 贸易自由化不会威胁中国的粮食安全 , 促进农业结构调整

• 地区间的贫富差异将会进一步扩大，使收入不均现象进一步加剧

结论和政策涵义 : 贸易自由化Concluding Remarks: Trade Liberalization

• China should take a pro-active and play aggressive role in the Doha round of talks

• Pro-poor policies must be adopted to target those who are hurt and those who are vulnerable

• 在多哈回合中积极推进贸易自由化进程

• 在推进贸易自由化进程中，国家政策需向贫困地区和贫困人口倾斜

结论和政策涵义 : 中国经济的崛起Concluding Remarks: the Rising China’s economy

• Food security: the rising China’s economy will not threaten world food security

• Instead, increasing imports of edible oil, sugar, and cotton will help both developing and developed countries to expand their production

• 中国经济的崛起不会威胁世界粮食和食物安全

• 食物油、糖和棉花等进口增加还将为许多发展中国家和发达国家的生产提供发展的机遇

结论和政策涵义 : 中国经济的崛起Concluding Remarks: the Rising China’s economy

• Although energy and mineral will rise as China’s economy expanded, China’s share in world trade will remain low. Moreover, if there would be a significant rise, it is expected that there would also be strong policy responses

• 虽然中国经济的崛起会增加能源和矿产的进口，但中国进口在世界贸易的比例不会很高。如果进口显著增加，中国政府会做出适当的响应

结论和政策涵义 : 中国经济的崛起Concluding Remarks: the Rising China’s economy

• The rapid growth of China’s economy will stimulate overall world economic growth

Market opportunities: capital intensive manufactures, natural resources, service, and many land intensive agricultural products

• 中国经济增长将促进世界总体经济增长 市场机遇：资金密集型工业、自然资源、服务业、土地密集型农产品

结论和政策涵义 : 中国经济的崛起Concluding Remarks: the Rising China’s economy

• The ability to gain additional benefits from China’s market expansion highly depends on the competitive and the structural adjustment in the rest of world (especially the developing countries)

• 各国从中国市场扩张中获得利益的能力，一方面取决于其国内的经济结构，另一方面更取决于其经济结构的调整