on science and governance · 2013. 10. 13. · advice training propaganda. science and first...

On science and governanceOn science and governanceOn science and governanceOn science and governance

Todays programme

10.3010.3010.3010.30 WelcomeWelcomeWelcomeWelcome11.0011.0011.0011.00 Prof. Prof. Prof. Prof. EkkoEkkoEkkoEkko van Ierlandvan Ierlandvan Ierlandvan Ierland ---- Opening remarks11.0511.0511.0511.05 Prof. Prof. Prof. Prof. KatrienKatrienKatrienKatrien TermeerTermeerTermeerTermeer ---- ‘Third Generation Governance’11.2511.2511.2511.25 Prof. Prof. Prof. Prof. DanielDanielDanielDaniel PaulyPaulyPaulyPauly ---- ‘Fishing and global warming impacts onMarine Ecosystems’11.5511.5511.5511.55 DrDrDrDr. Jan van . Jan van . Jan van . Jan van TatenhoveTatenhoveTatenhoveTatenhove ---- ‘Innovative forms of marine governance: a reflection’12.1512.1512.1512.15 Lunch and coffee break12.4512.4512.4512.45 Prof. Prof. Prof. Prof. DavidDavidDavidDavid BaulcombeBaulcombeBaulcombeBaulcombe ---- ‘On RNAi and its potential applications’13.1513.1513.1513.15 Prof. Bas ArtsProf. Bas ArtsProf. Bas ArtsProf. Bas Arts ---- ‘Biodiversity and bio safety governance: a reflection’13.3013.3013.3013.30 Discussion13.5513.5513.5513.55 Prof. Prof. Prof. Prof. EkkoEkkoEkkoEkko van Ierlandvan Ierlandvan Ierlandvan Ierland ---- Closing remarks

Third Generation Governance

Katrien Termeer Professor of Public Administration and Policy

Complex problems

� Persist for many years� Numerous efforts to remedy them� Causes of complexity:

� Uncertainty� Involvement of many actors � Dynamics of the problem� Connections of problems at different scales

Central questions

� Government is expected to and is ambitious to really solve these problems, but:

� What are the opportunities of government to intervene n society?

� What are the effects of policies as:� Government is dependent on the resources of firms

and citizens?� Problems cross over borders?

Content � Three generations of governance� Description and critics� The role of science� Conclusions

� No attention on agenda setting, defining problems and political struggles behind the selection of instruments

First generation governance

Policy objective

Preferred societal development

Instrument

Changed behaviour firms/citizens

Tools of government: a taxonomy

Positive:broadening behaviour

Negative: constraining behaviour

Juridical instruments

AgreementsTreaties

RegulationLicenses

Economic instruments

SubsidiesGrants

TaxesLevies

Communicative instruments

AdviceTraining

Propaganda

Science and first generation

� Role:� Categorisation, quantification, identification, monitoring� Counting

� Relation:� Separated worlds of science and of politics� Business-wise communication

Limitations first generation governance

� The need for detailed information� Problems with compliance� Self-referential character subjects of steering� Lack of scalability� Human ability of learning and reflexivity

Instrument 1Controller

Company 2Consumers

Environmental organization

Local authorities

Employees

Tradingorganization

Behavior Company 1

Second Generation Governance

Behavior Company 2Behavior Company 3

Effects

Instrument 3

PolicyobjectiveInstrument 2

Company 1

Taxonomy of second generation instruments

Direct: influencing actors’ behaviour

Indirect: changing the network

Juridical instruments

CovenantsCertification

Control of controlsTreat with regulation

Economic instruments

Tradable quota’sPricing

Subsidising NGO’sGroup quota’s

Communicative instruments

LabelingEnvironmental report

AlliancesDebates

Science and second generation

� Role:� Paradoxical� Reducing complexity to manageable proportions� Varied repertoire of activities

� Relation:� Worlds of science and politics are intermingled� Balancing negotiated knowledge-negotiated nonsense

Critics on instrumental approaches

� Damaging effects on adaptive structures and improvisation capacities

� The risk of moral hazard� Temporal mismatch � Irreversible character of many policies

Third generation governance

dynamics natural system

dynamics social system

dynamics policy system

Rules of thumb

� Continuous observation� Provide a general direction� Animate people to generate experiments� Encourage and enable updating� Respectful interactions

Science and third generation

� Different jobs in different arenas� Arena of science: improve understanding

complex dynamic systems� New arena between politics and science

� Intensive interactions policymakers and scientists � Taylor-made activities� Transdisciplinarity� Continuous sense making

Conclusions

� No one best generation� Third generation meaningful if there is a

willingness to adapt, to learn and to develop� Awareness of emergent change can make

government more selective with new policy

Thank you

© Wageningen UR

Impact of Fisheries and Global Warmingon Marine Ecosystems and Food Security

Daniel PaulySea Around Us ProjectFisheries Centre, UBC

Lustrum Symposium On Science and Governance

Wageningen University, March 7, 2008

This graph, illustrating a Canadian tragedy, leads to several questions. One of them is: how typical is the story

of the Northern cod fishery? Can we generalize?

And it goes on!

We can define…

Now let’s apply these definitions to the global FAO catch statistics…

Fully exploited

Developing

Underdeveloped… Over-exploited Crashed

Stoc

ks (%

)

Our first generalization is bleak indeed.

Developing

Fully exploited

Over-exploited

Crashed

Underdeveloped

Global fisheries landings, despite (or because of ) increasing effort, have been declining since the late 1980s,

a fact long hidden by over-reporting from China:

Watson and Pauly (Nature), 2001.

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Glo

bal c

atch

(t ·

106 )

Uncorrected

Corrected

Corrected, no anchoveta

El Niño event

(a)El Niño events

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Wit

hdra

wal

s (m

illio

n t)

A

E

D

C

B

In fact, the decline is even stronger if one considers discarded fish. This was generally overlooked when FAO’s last estimate of discards (dot E; 7-8 million t) was released.

Zeller and Pauly (Fish & Fisheries, 2005)

Peruvian anchoveta

Other landed fishes and invertebrates

Discarded fishes and invertebrates

Biomass of table fish in 1900

(t/km2)

(Christensen et al. 2003, Fish & Fisheries)

and in 2000….

Same thing in West Africa, where there is lots of foreign

fishing

Christensen et al. (2004; Dakar Conference Proceedings)

Back to basics: ecosystem fluxes move up ‘trophic pyramids’…

Tro

phic

l ev e

l

Phytoplankton

Top predators

Prey fish

Zooplankton

. . ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. *.*. .. .... . ..*.*.*.*.*.*.

*.*.*.*.*.*.

*.*.

. . . . . .≅≅≅≅ 10%≅≅≅≅ 10%

≅≅≅≅ 10%≅≅≅≅ 10%

≅≅≅≅10%≅≅≅≅10%

*.*.

4

3

2

1

and each species tends to have its own trophic level…

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Year

Tro

phic

leve

l

Global coastal

North Atlantic

2000

Another generalization emerges when we compute the mean trophic level of world catches. This shows a global decline…

Pauly et al. (Science, 1998)

In fact, ‘fishing down’ is so widespread that the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) now uses mean trophic levels as an

index of biodiversity, the “Marine Trophic Index”.

Trophic level change (1950-2000)

>1 0.5 to 1.0 no change /no data

And this means that ‘fishing down’ is

everywhere

Grenadier, snoek,seabream

Hake

HakeHake

FlatfishPollock

Flounder

Cod

Cod, saithe, plaice, redfish, haddockDemeral Fishes

Consumers in the ‘North’ have not noticed this, nor similar trends: while most seafood is traded between the EU, the USA and Northeast Asia, the ‘South’ has so far met the shortfall in the ‘North’….

We’ll need to get out of the

vicious circle of contemporary

fisheries management.

Let’s start with subsidies…

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

China

However, all the optimistic projections forget that aquaculture is mainly a Chinese enterprise (2/3 of production), devoted mainly to freshwater fishes…

Aquaculture has grown to a production of 40 millions t in the last decades , and some believe it is solution to our fish supply problem…

Freshw. fishes

Source: Watson, Alder & Pauly, 2006

Moreover, over 1/3 of the world’s fish catch is currently wasted, i.e., turned into animal feeds…

36%

But it may not be simple: see J. Jacquet and D. Pauly. 2007. Therise of consumer awareness campaigns in an era of collapsing fisheries. Marine Policy 31: 315-321.

At this point, people tend to wonder: what fish can I eat? Maybe the answer is simple (see www.seafoodguide.org)…

Pho

to (

?)

by

Jen

nife

r Ja

cqu

et

Meanwhile, thing are heating up…

Al Gore & IPCC: Nobel Prize 2007

Probability of occurrence by water temperature

Temperature-abundance profile

Small yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis)

Relative abundance

0

0 - 0.00015

> 0.0015 - 0.0038

> 0.0038 - 0.0062

> 0.0062 - 0.0095

> 0.0095 - 0.012

> 0.012 - 0.016

> 0.016 - 0.023

> 0.023 - 0.030

> 0.030 - 0.040

> 0.040

Low

High

Relative abundance

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28

Temperature (degree C)P

roba

bilit

y of

occ

urre

nce

Small yellow croakerYear 0

Year 2

Small yellow croaker

Year 4

Small yellow croaker

Year 6

Small yellow croaker

Year 8

Small yellow croaker

Year 10

Small yellow croaker

Year 12

Small yellow croaker

Year 14

Small yellow croaker

Year 16

Small yellow croaker

Year 18

Small yellow croaker

Year 20

Small yellow croaker

Year 22

Small yellow croaker

Year 24

Small yellow croaker

Year 26

Small yellow croaker

Year 28

Small yellow croaker

Year 30

Small yellow croaker

Original (static) distribution

Relative abundance

0

0 - 0.00015

> 0.0015 - 0.0038

> 0.0038 - 0.0062

> 0.0062 - 0.0095

> 0.0095 - 0.012

> 0.012 - 0.016

> 0.016 - 0.023

> 0.023 - 0.030

> 0.030 - 0.040

> 0.040

Low

High

Relative abundance

Distribution after 30 years

Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni)

…as an example of a species predicted to go extinct

Marine Protected Areas are part of the solution. There are many, but most of them are tiny…

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Cum

ulat

ive

Are

a ('0

00 s

q km

)

International sites

National sites

1% of world ocean area (growth rate ~ 5% year-1)

Wood et al. (in press)

As a result, the growth of the global MPA network is so slow that we will miss all the

targets…

Wood et al. (in press)

Acknowledgements…• Thanks to the Pew Charitable Trusts,

Philadelphia;

• Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia;

• Members of the Sea Around Us project,and many others...

visit us at www.seaaroundus.org

Innovative Forms of Marine Governance: A Reflection

Jan van Tatenhove

What is happening in the Marine Environment?

� Fisheries� Commercial Shipping and Ship building

� Offshore Energy Production� Activities in Coastal Regions

Disturbance of Marine Ecosystems(illustration: Halpern et.al. 2008)

What are the problems?

� The exhaustion of supplies� Over exploitation of resources� Loss of biodiversity

� The destruction of ecosystems� Destruction of coastal ecosystems� Climate change

� Exceeding the waste repository system� Ocean disposals and spills (by ships)� Maritime accidents� Land-based contamination

Maritime activities and social scientists

� Problems and solutions are negotiated upon and constructed

� There is no subject – object relation between a governing system and a system-to-be-governed

� Governing of marine activities is complex and takes place in a context of institutional ambiguity

� To understand the complexity of governing marine activities one has to understand the shift in locus and focus of processes of governing

A Changing Context of Marine Politics and Policy

� Shift in Locus� New Actors� New Levels

� Shift in Focus� New Rules� New Steering Mechanisms

� Shifts resulted in new governance arrangements

Marine Governance

� Sharing of (marine) policy making competences in a system of negotiation between nested governmental institutions at several tiers (international, (supra)national, regional and local) on the one hand and state actors, market parties and civil society organizations on the other in order to govern activities at sea and their consequences

Marine Governance is about…

� Processes of marine policy making (PolicyPolicyPolicyPolicy)� The actions of politicians (on different levels) and

power relations between political actors (PoliticsPoliticsPoliticsPolitics) � The institutional settings (or system of rules) in which

marine policy and politics take place (PolityPolityPolityPolity)

Triangle of Governance

Source: Van Tatenhove & Van Leeuwen (2007)

POLITYPOLITY

POLITICSPOLITICS

POLICYPOLICY

Examples of Innovative Forms of Governance

� Regional Advisory Councils� Marine Protected Areas and Marine Spatial

Planning� Clean Ship

Challenges for Maritime Governance

� Understanding the different dynamics of governance in marine policy domains� Interplay of polity – policy – politics (different triangles)� Co-existence of traditional and innovative governance

arrangements (within a triangle)� Understanding the constraining and enabling conditions

for an integrated maritime policy� Region oriented maritime policy� Co-existence of sectoral and integrative triangles

� Designing integrated marine governance arrangements� Discourses, stakeholders, rules of the game and new sites of

power

Conclusion

© Wageningen UR

Technological implications of basic

research in plant science – the case

history of RNA silencing

David Baulcombe

Cambridge University UKwww.plantsci.cam.ac.uk/research/davidbaulcombe.html

technology for flower colour modification

natural flower pigmentation

gene

natural flower pigmentation gene

+ flower pigmentation transgene

parasite-derived resistance

potato virus X

PVX transgene

PVX transgene RNA

RNA silencing

PVX virus

PVX virus RNA

RNA silencing mediates virus

resistance in transgenic plants

12K

25K 8K CP166K

RNA silencing – a control system in plants,

animals and fungi

dsRNA

21+24nt RNA

dicer

Argonaut/slicerAGO AGO

Song et al. (2004)

specificity of nuclease action on target RNA

determined by base pairing of target and 21-

24nt sRNA

dsRNA gene 1

phenotype 1?

dsRNA gene 2

phenotype 2?

dsRNA gene 3

phenotype 3?

dsRNA gene n

phenotype n?

functional genomics

virus-induced silencing of leafy

w.t.

C

bleaching

A

stunting

B

leaf distorsion

D

dead plants

a silencing screen in plants

RNA silencing in biomedicine

The potential for application

• Functional genomics

• Drug target validation

• Therapeutics

The potential and actual problems

• Specificity and off-target effects

• Delivery of siRNA or dsRNA to site of intended action

delivery of siRNA stops virus

accumulation

Novina et al. , Nature Medicine 8 (2002) 681-686

RNA silencing in plants and agriculture

The potential for applications

• Functional genomics

• Validation of targets for herbicides and other crop protection chemicals

• Direct silencing of useful target genes

• Varied mechanisms generate diverse types of application

The potential and actual problems

• Fewer off target effects than in animals because the mechanism is inherently more specific in plants

• Direct delivery of siRNA or dsRNA to site of intended action transgenic expression or –rarely- direct application of siRNA

strategies for virus resistance based

on understanding of mechanism

• Transgenic – transgenes to target silencing

against a virus – amiRNA probably better than

siRNA methods

The same RNAi method can be used to control nematodes

PNAS Sept 2006

The same RNAi method can also be used to control insectsNat Biotech Nov 2007

RNA silencing is part of virus defense and

developmental control

RDR6 knock down wt

PVX infected

the value of RNA silencing …..

the real value of RNA silencing

• virus and other

infectious disease in

biomedicine

• crop improvement

for sustainable

agriculture via GM

and non GM

approaches

The value of basic plant science

Martinus Beijerinck, 1851-1931

Biodiversity and Biosafety Governance: A ReflectionProf. Bas Arts

Contents

� Global governance� GMOs & biosafety� Cartagena Protocol on

Biosafety (CPB)� Science-policy interface� Two belief systems, two

advocacy coalitions� Conclusions

Global governance

� Governing without (world) government

� Co-ordination mechanisms to address global issues

� Different ‘spheres of authority’ (SOAs)

� Scaling issue

GMOs, GM crops

Promises� High-yielding ‘super plants’� Resistance to diseases � Pesticide / herbicide

tolerance Concerns� Ethical and religious� Environmental effects� Health effects

Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety

� CBD (1992)� Binding law (since

2003)� > 150 countries� USA not!� Role NGOs & firms

Biosafety Protocol: 5 key issues

1. Safe transfer, handling and use of GMOs(LMOs) to protect biodiversity and health

2. Advance Informed Agreement (AIA-procedure)

3. Precautionary principle & risk assessment

4. Commodities (GM food)

CPBCPBCPBCPB WTOWTOWTOWTO

Discrimination(GM product ≠ normal product)

Non-discrimination(GM product = normal product)

Process approach(focus on production process)

Product approach(focus on product itself)

Precautionary approach(preventive action)

Scientific rationality(evidence-based action)

5. Biosafety vs. International trade

WTO regime ≠ ‘open access’

For example: SPS Agreement� Human, animal, plant life and health � Sanitary and phyto-sanitary measures� Legitimate ‘violation’ of non-discrimination

principle� Science & precautionary principle� Not biosafety (so far) � US/EU case!� Future: CPB+ as WTO-agreement on biosafety?

Science-policy interface

� Scientists are often frustrated by politics…� But: politics is about facts and values…� And: Scientist often disagree….

Types of policy issues (Hirschemöller)

Certainty aboutfacts

Uncertainty aboutfacts

Valueconsensus

StructuredStructuredStructuredStructuredIssue (‘truth to power’)

Mixed

No valueconsensus

Mixed UnstructuredUnstructuredUnstructuredUnstructured issue (‘joint learning’)

SCOPUS, ‘GMOs AND risks’, N=189 �N=40TopicTopicTopicTopic N articlesN articlesN articlesN articles

Risks/uncertainties/control 19

Equivalence/promise 11

Policy (implementation) 4

Role sciences/scientists 4

State of the art 2

Types of policy issues (Hirschemöller)

Certainty aboutfacts

Uncertainty aboutfacts

Valueconsensus

StructuredStructuredStructuredStructuredIssue (‘truth to power’)

Mixed

No valueconsensus

Mixed BiosafetyBiosafetyBiosafetyBiosafety

Different beliefs & coalitions (Sabatier)

Miami Group IndustryPro-biotech, WTO regime, science

Like-minded Group, EU, NGOsGMO concerns, environmental regime, precautionary pr.

Public pressure

Biosafety protocol

Conclusions

� Science and governance: complex relationship� Shifts in global governance (1)� Shifts in knowledge production (2)

� Different ‘belief systems’ (perceived facts & values)� USA vs. EU; Industry vs. NGOs

� Focus on ‘regime interaction’ is very important� CPB and WTO not necessarily mutually exclusive…

Thank you

© Wageningen UR

Closing remarksprof. Ekko van Ierland

© Wageningen UR

Admission for DiesNo admission for Dies

Thank you

© Wageningen UR