opportunity recognition

Opportunity Recognition

Fábio Póvoa

Fábio Póvoa

So you (think you) are/wannabe an…

…entrepreneur

?

Possible “answers”

Rich No bosses Famous All of the above

Money ?

Hate your boss ?

Wonder how it’d be with a Customer ?

Customers are not God.

God forgives.

Famous ?

Solve a problem, a painEnjoy the ride Impact, meaninfullness“There’s gotta be a better way”Trends, technologies, changesYour skills + innovation + an unmet mkt need

“There’s gotta be a better way” Impact, meaningfulness Self-growth Risk x reward attitude

“Carpe diem”

Can entrepreneurship be taught ?

Wrong question and mindset.

Entrepreneurship is so f*** hard that it

shall be...

… learned !!

What is a startup ?

Startups are not smaller versions of

large companies.

A startup is a temporary organization designed to search for

a repeatable, scalable and profitable business model.

Lean Canvas

EXPERIENTIAL LEARNING

How to spot opportunities ?

Find a problem, for a customer segment, that you

can solve, for which they will pay, on a large enough market.

Find a problem …

A …

1) Problem2) Need3) Frustration

is the foundation for every opportunity

Customers don’t buy what you sell.

They purchase solutions to their problems.

And needs change all the time !

Niche Technology Data Connectivity R&D

Take a car for instance.

What are the need/frustr/problems underlying that opportunity ?

Moving from A to B Stuff

People

555157843_b74db1b6e7_o.jpg

Again, find a …

1) Problem2) Need3) Frustration

Find a problem , for a customer

segment…

A problem … is on the eyes of the beholder !

Don’t try to be all things to everyone !

Find your early adopters !

Scratch your own

itch !

Key profile details

Demographics (age, sex, income, marital status, geo, etc)

Background (work, education) Pains & gains | Roles & challenges Media consumption / places most likely to

find info Influencers Role in purchase process

users / payers / regulators Other key info for YOUR CS profile

Tech awareness ??

The day-to-day

problem for those who have diabetes ?

• Empathy is…• Badge of honor:

- being kicked off

Startup’s greatest risks:

• technology ? • competition ?

Beingignored.

Find your early adopters !

Find a problem , for a customer segment, that

you can solve…

It is NOT rocket science !

Most opps do NOT demand high tech,

R&D-based solutions!

A “solution” starts with a simple app &/or website

… for which there are templates …

… and plenty of service mktplaces …

… and plenty of service mktplaces …

… and plenty of service mktplaces …

… and plenty of service mktplaces …

… but you should always have a well-balanced team. (a co-founder to

start!)

Find a problem, for a customer segment, that you can solve,

for which they will pay…

Understand the importance of a business model !

In particular, revenue streams!

RS examples

Asset sale

Usage fee (proportional to usage of service)

Subscription (continuous access)

Renting (temp access)

RS examples (cont.)

Licensing (IP)

Intermediation fee (mktplaces)

Advertising (brands in front of people)

Time (attention) and

info is a new

form of currency

!

Find a problem, for a customer segment, that you

can solve, for which they will pay, on a large enough market.

How big is this opportunity ?

Why do this matter ?

New venture payoff

> ?

toil, $weat, tear$

How big is the

universe ?

How # reachabl

e through my sales channel?

Who will be my most likely

buyers ?

A mobile appexample

Smartphone

owners worldwid

e

English speaking iPhone owners

Active Apple store customers who are interested

Total Available Market

Served Available Market

Serviceable Obtainable

Market (aka Target

Marget)

Top down:• Industry analysts• Mkt research• Competitor press

releases• University labs• Investors & customer

infosBeware: mkt research firms are great at predicting the past.

(If they were good at predicting the future, they’d be running hedge funds)

Bottoms up:Usually more realistic for startups

Map out your key metrics / drivers. Usually a mix of:4 levels of key metrics:1. eyeballs, page views, downloads, referrals,

hours, etc

2. Gain / conversion / churn metrics3. Transaction recurrence4. Ticket $ize (cross and upsell)

Validate: your numbers should be believable

• Have others grown as fast ?

• Will this startup perform similarly ?

• Do a top down sizing : are you bigger than the mkt ?

Are you f***ing growing faster than F did ?

Find a problem, for a customer segment, that you can solve, for which they will pay,

on a large enough market.

Do it better than current alternatives, grow revenues faster than expenses, and

try to avoid regulation.

fabio@povoa.com