thinking about thinking iasummit 2014

Thinking about Thinkingand the demands of the post-digital world

Cassandra Moore, PhDAquilent

IA Summit 2014

The digital revolution is over.Nicholas Negroponte

We have a growing internet of things.

Data is ubiquitous, sensors are autonomous.

Post-digital is the state of things after the fanfare.

How do we dwell in an information ecology?

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What we Don’t See

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How do we build digital systems to resonate with those parameters?

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Everything we think, feel, sense is filtered through the particular parameters of our sensory and

cognitive systems.

System 1 System 2

• Automatic, effortless, quick• Largely unconscious,

difficult/impossible to control• Operates on biases and heuristics• Does most of the work of thinking

• Controlled, effortful, slow• Usually conscious• Logically coherent, rule-governed• Lazy, difficult to engage• Who we think we are

Two Families of Mental Operation

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Paying more When Watched

Bateson, M et al, Cues of being watched enhance cooperation in a real-world setting. Biology Letters (2006) 2, 412-414

Expertise is Intuitive Thinking

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BIASES IN INTUITIVE THINKING

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ASSOCIATIVE COHERENCE

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Priming

VOMIT BANANAS

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When did Attila the Hun Rise to Power?

It depends on the serial number.@Seymour188

The Invisible Gorilla

Chablis and Simons, The Invisible Gorilla

Associative Coherence

• Suppression of ambiguity or doubt

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• Incorporation of extraneous information

• World seems much more coherent than it is

CAUSALITY AND INTENT

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Merely Shapes on a Screen

Heider and Simmel, 1944

Causality & Intent

• Coincident timing perceived as causality

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• Agency is attributed to objects

• Motives are attributed to objects

STATISTICS AND NUMEROSITY

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Substituting Similarity for Probability

Linda studied philosophy in college , most people think she went to Berkeley. She participated in anti-nuclear marches, she was very bright and very active.

Linda is a feminist bank teller.

Ten years have passed. Which of the following is most probable?

Linda is a bank teller.

P(Feminist and Teller)P(Teller)

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We Suck at Statistics

• Substitute easier operations for hard ones

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• Discount the base rate

• Small numbers are lawless

It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

– Yogi Berra

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Impact Bias

• Overestimate the impact of events on future happiness

• Focus solely on the event, tend to forget other things will occur

• Best predictor is how others are doing in the same situation

Overconfidence Bias

• Pundits’ predictions around chance

• Overconfidence in predictions

• Discount falsifying evidence

• Reluctant to change in the face of negative evidence

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Where do we go from here?

• Expect everything to become a coherent story

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• Multi-tasking isn’t

• Under-design – causality comes for free

• Tell people’s stories to improve decisions

• Do the stats behind the scenes

THANK YOU!

SeymourInfoArchitect on SlideShare

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cassandra.moore527@gmail.com

A Different Perspective

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Percentages are Difficult

A health survey was conducted on a sample of adult males of all ages and occupations.

What percentage of the men have had a heart attack?

What percentage of the men are both over 55 and have had a heart attack?

A health survey was conducted on a sample of 100 adult males of all ages and occupations.

How many of the 100 men have had a heart attack?

How many of the men are both over 55 and have had a heart attack?