top 10 forecasts, 2008 let’s get right to it…. why bother with the future "if you think...

Top 10 Forecasts, 2008

Let’s get right to it….

Why bother with the future

"If you think that you can run an organization in the next 10 years… … as you've run it in the past 10 years…

you're out of your you're out of your mind."mind."

CEO, Coca Cola

““When the rate When the rate of change of change

outside your outside your company company

exceeds the exceeds the rate of change rate of change

inside your inside your company, company, disaster is disaster is imminent”imminent”

Lou Pritchet Senior VP, Procter & Gamble

Looking to the future:common mistakes Making predictions rather than

attaching probabilities to possibilities

Simply extrapolating current trends

Thinking of only one future

“When faced with a totally new situation we tend to attach ourselves to the objects of the most recent past.

Marshall McLuhan

We look at the present through a rear view mirror”

Looking to the future: common mistakes

People consistently Overestimate the effect of short term change

& Underestimate the effect of long term change.

Ian Morrison,

former president of the Institute for the FutureConsider the "Historical Record

of Inane Inaccuracies" ”

Effective Forecasting - The Desired vs The Likely

The best way to predict the future is to invent it–

Alan Kay--‘Father’ of the PC and GUI interface

R E A C T I V E

C R E A T I V E

Change how you “C” things!

The point is not so much to predict “the” future…

but to prepare for various contingencies

Based on the logical extension of established trends

The point is not so much to predict “the” future…

but to prepare for various contingencies

Based on the logical extension of established trends

How best to prepare for the future

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

%of GNP

1850 1950 2050

AgricultureManufacturingServices

Some things are clear--

How best to think about the future

Think of the drivers of change

Use the drivers to imagine different scenarios of the future

Imagine perhaps three; each should be plausible but different

Extrapolate back from those future scenarios to think about what to do now to prepare

TechnoSphere InfoSphere SocioSphere PsychoSphere Bio & PowerSpheres

TechnoSphere InfoSphere SocioSphere PsychoSphere Bio & PowerSpheres

What “Drivers” Have We Observed?

What “Drivers” Have We Observed?

What occurred in past few decades to precipitate a

paradigm shift in Marketing…

From product to customer centered

From mass to micro strategy

From customer acquisition to retention

From regarding marketing as a function to envisioning it as a philosophy

Enabled by TechnologicallyPrecipitated by GlobalizationNecessitated by Consumers

technology convergence is fueling a new economy

Computing Computing TechnologiesTechnologies

Communication Communication TechnologiesTechnologies

Content Content TechnologiesTechnologies

The resulting Techno/Info-sphere is re-defining the business landscape for the 21st

century

COMPUNICATIONS

COMPUNICATIONS

CONVERGENTTECHNOLOGY

Socio/Psycho-

Graphic

DIVERSITY

Future Marketing Environme

nt

NONCONVERGENTTECHNOLOGIES

Socio/Psycho-Graphic

HOMOGENEITY

Past Marketing Environme

nt

TechnoSphere DriversTechnoSphere Drivers

Ubiquitous- Imbedded Intelligence

Ubiquitous- Imbedded Intelligence

Information technology will transform our day-to-day lives.

"The big trends - are the availability of cheap sensors that provide digital data, cheap computing power and ubiquitous connectivity - the ability to connect to networks,"

by 2020 everything large enough to carry a microchip probably will, and from there the possibilities are endless.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/0,15047,1299021,00.html

Imbedded intelligence & low-cost omnipresent bandwidth

3G videophones w/ broadband – 2 megper second –

AI Enhanced PDA devices w/ speech recognition & avatars

RFID – everywhere & in everything

Enabled by TechnologicallyPrecipitated by GlobalizationNecessitated by Consumers

After more than a century of electric technology, we have extended our central nervous system in a global embrace, abolishing both space & time”

-Marshall McLuhan, Understanding Media- 1955

Rise of the “Global Village”Rise of the “Global Village”Rise of the “Global Village”Rise of the “Global Village”

…… not just the “shrinking” of time & space

The new electronic media have transcended time & space w/ “virtual mobility”

Borders have become meaninglessBorders have become meaningless

Trans-National* Cross-Cultural

High Speed/ Low Cost

Transportation & Communication

The entire globe is now tied

together as a single

community operating 24/7/365

The Compunications DriverThe Compunications Driver

The further, faster, easier, cheaper & more frequent people are able

to travel & communicate…

the greater the amount of interaction &

influenceThe greater the degree

of Globalization

Enabled by TechnologicallyPrecipitated by GlobalizationNecessitated by Consumers

20th CenturyHomogenous Consumers

21st CenturyFragmented Consumers

% o

f p

op

ula

tio

n

% o

f p

op

ula

tio

n

Extreme shifts in:

AgeWealthEthnicity CultureLifestage patterns Household compositionValue systems

Source: IBM Institute for Business Value analysis

Consumer values are fragmenting

X+ generation=techno-savvy accessing information whenever & wherever they want it

Product knowledgeThird-party commentary Ubiquitous networkingNext-generationmobile devices

Advanced infomediaries

Source: IBM Institute for Business Value analysis

& Info Savvy

Source: (1) GMA Forum, “Do We Have a Crisis in Brand Management,” Q3 2003; (2) Forrester Research, “Privacy for Sale,” 11 Jun 02; IBM Institute for Business Value analysis

Blocking Out, Shutting Down

Overexposed & “on” to marketing

Ignore irrelevant, low-value messages

Actively block unsolicited communications

Becoming more complex--age, sex & income

reversals

Becoming more self-centered & Home centered

Have less time & more choices

Are less brand loyal

More connected & more informed

Have lower attention spans

& higher expectations

Are living & shopping more

for today…Less long range

planningSeeking new/ heightened sensation

& experiences

Today’sConsumers

Preparing for the Future:

A Quick N’ Dirty Environmental Scan

• “By 2015, desktop operating systems will be largely irrelevant. •The Web will be the only OS worth coding for.• It won't matter what device you use, as long as it runs on the Web OS.•You will reach the same distributed computer whether you log on via phone, PDA, laptop, or HDTV”

The "global brain” is

beginning to emerge

We are the web—Kevin Kelly-Wired magazine-August 2005 

Each time we forge a link between words, we teach it an idea…. That massive cross-referencing is how brains think and remember.

What will most surprise us is how dependent we will be on what the Machine knows - about us and about what we want to know.

We already find it easier to Google something a second or third time rather than remember it ourselves.

The more we teach this megacomputer, the more it will assume responsibility for our knowing. It will become our memory. Then it will become our identity.

Within a quarter century,

nonbiological intelligence

will match the range and subtlety of

human intelligence

The Singularity is Near

rise of…atomic & molecular computersquantum computersnanotechnologyoptical computers DNA computers–or even a “computer in a pen”

Age of Silicon is at

an end!

More Concerned w/ Corporate citizenship

More Eco-conscious

Expect immediate personalized attention

Health #1

Very tech savvy

70% music & books bought

online

shopping more on impulse…

High levels dissatisfaction w/

retailing

TomorrowsConsumers

Living/ Growing up in the Global Village Cross- generations Cross- cultural Cross- mediated experiences

Emergence of an inter:

•National

•Cultural

•Changeable workforce

Global- Psycho-Spheric

Schizophrenia

Multi-National Commercialization of

Public Sector Services

The De-Definition of American

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

%of GNP

1850 1950 2050

AgricultureManufacturingServices

Some things are clear--

Evolving Now into Just One Big Market: Evolving Now into Just One Big Market: The Global EconomyThe Global Economy

Evolving Now into Just One Big Market: Evolving Now into Just One Big Market: The Global EconomyThe Global Economy

…… the increasing tendency of economies around the world to interact w/ one another as one market instead of many national markets

For US- Presently about 1/3 of profits and 1/5 of economic growth are related to global business

The Global Village

The Global Economy

The Global Corporation

http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/0,15047,1299021,00.html

•Growing divergence between those employed in highly skilled, highly paid

professions, and those at the bottom .. The economy of work.. will be increasingly hourglass-shaped. "At the top end of the jobs hierarchy, people are likely to enjoy substantial discretion over their hours, places and patterns of working time…

•Outsourcing, … will continue. Reservation agents, computer programmers, database managers, financial analysts - all those whose jobs that depend, in part, on an ability to master repetitive tasks performed on a computer - will have been relocated abroad. "Only the customer-facing jobs will be left,"

•Growing divergence between those employed in highly skilled, highly paid

professions, and those at the bottom .. The economy of work.. will be increasingly hourglass-shaped. "At the top end of the jobs hierarchy, people are likely to enjoy substantial discretion over their hours, places and patterns of working time…

•Outsourcing, … will continue. Reservation agents, computer programmers, database managers, financial analysts - all those whose jobs that depend, in part, on an ability to master repetitive tasks performed on a computer - will have been relocated abroad. "Only the customer-facing jobs will be left,"

Networking is critical in building competency & competitiveness

2nd WavePowerSphere~Collapse

2nd WavePowerSphere~Collapse

"As the Second Wave produced a mass society, the Third Wave de-massifies us,………. moving the entire social system to a much higher level of diversity & complexity.

This revolutionary process, much like the biological differentiation that occurs in evolution, helps explain one of today's most noted political phenomena - the collapse of consensus."

Toffler, The Third Wave, p. 408 Toffler, The Third Wave, p. 408

What, then, happens to the very notion of

'representative democracy?' Under the convergence of speed & diversity,

can any constituency can be "represented?" In a mass industrial society, when people and

their needs were fairly uniform and basic, consensus was an attainable goal.

In a de-massified society, we not only lack national purpose, we also lack regional, statewide, or city-wide purpose. ... The elected representative cannot

represent the general will for the simple reason that there is none

Under the convergence of speed & diversity, can any constituency can be "represented?"

In a mass industrial society, when people and their needs were fairly uniform and basic, consensus was an attainable goal.

In a de-massified society, we not only lack national purpose, we also lack regional, statewide, or city-wide purpose. ... The elected representative cannot

represent the general will for the simple reason that there is none

Toffler, The Third Wave, p. 410

the collapse of consensus

In 2nd Wave society a political leader could glue

together half a dozen major blocs, as Roosevelt did in

1932, and expect the resulting coalition to

remain locked in position for many years.

the collapse of consensus

Today it is necessary to plug together hundreds, even thousands, of tiny, short-lived special interest groups… that cleave together just long enough to elect a president, then break apart again the day after the election, leaving him without a base of support for his programs

“In all likelihood it will require the radical overhaul –or even scraping-of:

.. all the unwieldy & unworkable apparatus of supposedly representative governments”…

“In all likelihood it will require the radical overhaul –or even scraping-of:

.. all the unwieldy & unworkable apparatus of supposedly representative governments”…

Toffler- The 3rd Wave

http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/0,15047,1299021,00.html

“The onward march of individualism - either through choice or fate - is still probably

the major force shaping our world”

“The onward march of individualism - either through choice or fate - is still probably

the major force shaping our world”

The central question is: Will the slow collapse of institutions that have been vehicles for our shared identity mean

collapse of identity itself?

Frontline- The Persuaders

The Near Future: Marketing

Considerations

The Near Future: Marketing

Considerations

“In today already walks

tomorrow.” Friedrich von

Schiller

Marketing’s Evolution Mirrors Civilization’s….

From 2nd wave Manufacturing Mentality

To 3rd Wave Information & Relationship Mgt. Process

Welcome to the Future

Real time data mining— conducted ‘round the world 24/7/365

On-going Consumer input & generated content

Marketing messages constructed “on the fly”-and delived thru integrated & individualized communication channels…

Analytical marketing skills and processes will be paramount

Career Competencies Needed by New -Marketers…

Traditional Skills Sales mgt Advertising mgt Sales promotion

mgt Marketing

research Pricing

Traditional Skills Sales mgt Advertising mgt Sales promotion

mgt Marketing

research Pricing

PLUS: Customer relationship

management (CRM) Partner relationship

management (PRM) Marketing Resource Mgt.:

Database Mgt & Data-mining Lifetime Profitability

analysis by segment, customer, channel

Integrated marketing communications; Public relations -(including event & cause sponsorship, buzz marketing)

PLUS: Customer relationship

management (CRM) Partner relationship

management (PRM) Marketing Resource Mgt.:

Database Mgt & Data-mining Lifetime Profitability

analysis by segment, customer, channel

Integrated marketing communications; Public relations -(including event & cause sponsorship, buzz marketing)

From Decision Support to Decision Automation: A 2020 VisionRandolph E. Bucklin, Donald R. Lehmann, and John D. C. Little; In coming decades, a

growing proportion of marketing decisions will be automated by ever-more-powerful combinations of data, combinations of data, models, and models, and computers.computers.

New age of marketing decision support will usher in an era of decision automation.

In coming decades, a growing proportion of marketing decisions will be automated by ever-more-powerful combinations of data, combinations of data, models, and models, and computers.computers.

New age of marketing decision support will usher in an era of decision automation. Marketing Resource Mgt

User Interface

WorkflowCollaboration

ContentManagement

Marketing Functionality

Marketing Context

Living Tomorrow –

Got Milk?

Got Pants?

Watching TV

Washing Clothes

Going to the Bathroom

Going to Bed

& Most Significantly:

Decision Support & Automation Systems- will be implemented within the consumer as well as business environments--

& Most Significantly:

Decision Support & Automation Systems- will be implemented within the consumer as well as business environments--