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Bi ging Xy dng v qun l{ d n

ThS. V Ngn Th 1

Ch tiu Hiu qu ti chnh

Bi ging b sung

Mn Xy dng v qun l{ d n

Hin gi thun NPV

2

Tn gi:

Net Present Value

Gi tr hin ti rng gi tr hin ti thun

Hin gi thu hi thun hin gi thun...

ngha:

tng Ngn lu rng ca c i d n c chit khu v nm hin ti theo t l chit khu nht nh.

NPV > 0 : c hiu qu

Hin gi thun NPV

3

n

0t

n

0t

n

0t )1()1()1(NPV

t

t

t

t

t

tt

r

C

r

B

r

CB

Trong : Bt (Benefit) tin thu v Ct (Cost) tin chi ra r T sut chit khu. n S nm hot ng kinh t ca d t Thi gian (t = 0,1,n)

V d 1

4

0 1 2 3 4

NCF

(USD)

-100.000 40.000 30.000 30.000 35.000

Tm NPV ca d n t thng tin sau

Ngn lu rng cho trong bng

Sut chit khu p dng: 7%/nm

Cch 1: Lp bng tnh

5

0 1 2 3 4

NCF (USD) -100.000 40.000 30.000 30.000 35.000

HSCK (7%) (tra bng hin gi)

(1+0,07)-0

= 1

(1+0,07)-1

=0,935

(1+0,07)-2

=0,873

(1+0,07)-3

=0,816

(1+0,07)-4

=0,763

PV(NCF) (= NCFxHSCK)

-100.000 37.400 26.190 24.480 26.705

PV(NCF) ly k -100.000 -62.600 -36.410 -11.930 14.775

NPV = 14.775 USD

Cch 2: V dng tin

6

a dng tin v hin ti

NPV = -100 + 40(1+0,07)-1 + 30(1+0,07)-2 + 30(1+0,07)-3 + 35(1+0,07)-4

NPV = -100 + 40 x 0,935 + 30 x 0,873 + 30 x 0,816 + 35 x 0,763

NPV = 14,775 (nghn USD)

0 1 2 3 4

40 30 30 35

100

r = 7%/nm

VT: 103USD


ThS. V Ngn Th 2

Cch 3: Tnh bng Excel

7

Hin gi thun NPV

11

u im:

Cho bit quy m tin li thu c ca c i d n.

Nhc im:

Ph thuc nhiu vo t sut chit khu

Phi xc nh r rng dng thu v dng chi ca c

i d n

Cha ni ln hiu qu s dng mt ng vn.

Ch s dng la chn cc d n loi b nhau

trong trng hp tui th nh nhau.

Ch tiu B/C

15

ngha: Cho bit mc sinh li hiu qu

B/C > 1 NPV > 0

Khi no nn dng t s B/C?

T s B/C = PV(li ch)

PV(chi ph)

B/C dng thng

16

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Th

c th

u t

r t

h

c ch

i

Vn u t

Tin thu t hot ng

Tin chi cho hot ng

B =

PV (Thu t H) =

PV (NL vo)

C PV(Vn u t + Chi cho H) PV (NL ra)

B/C dng sa i

17

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Th

c th

u t

r t

h

c ch

i

Vn u t

Thu chi trong thi gian hot ng

B =

PV (thu chi trong tg H) =

PV (Thu nhp rng)

C PV(Vn u t) PV (vn u t)

Ch tiu B/C

18

u im:

cho bit hiu qu ca mt ng vn b ra.

Nhc im:

Ph thuc vo t l chit khu la chn tnh ton.

L ch tiu nh gi tng i nn d dn n sai lm khi la chn cc d n loi b nhau

Tuz thuc vo quan nim v li ch v chi ph ca ngi nh gi.


ThS. V Ngn Th 3

V d

19

0 1 2 3 4

NCF

(USD)

-100.000 40.000 30.000 30.000 35.000

Tm B/C ca d n t thng tin sau



Lp bng tnh

20

0 1 2 3 4

NCF (USD) -100.000 40.000 30.000 30.000 35.000

PV(NCF) -100.000 37.400 26.190 24.480 26.705

Cch 1

Tng hin gi li ch = 37.400 + 26.190 + 24.480 + 26.705

= 114.775 USD

Tng hin gi vn u t = 100.000 USD

B/C = 114.775 / 100.000 = 1,148

Ngha l c 1 USD vn u t ban u b ra s thu c 1,148 USD thu

nhp rng trong thi gian hot ng

Lp bng tnh

21

0 1 2 3 4

NCF (USD) -100.000 40.000 30.000 30.000 35.000

PV(NCF) -100.000 37.400 26.190 24.480 26.705

Cch 2

B/C = 1+ (14.775 / 100.000)

= 1,148

D n PVincome PVcost B/C NPV

A 1200 1000 1.2 200

B 450 300 1.5 150

Chnh lch

A B

750 700 1.07 50

V d 3

24

C s liu v d n A v B nh sau. La chn d n no u t?

Ch tiu IRR

25

Tn gi:

Internal Rate of Return

Sut ni hon

Sut thu hi ni b

ngha:

L sut thu hi do bn thn d n c th to ra c

Kh nng sinh li ca bn thn d n ang xt

IRR chnh l r lm cho NPV c gi tr bng 0

IRR > r : d n c hiu qu

Ch tiu IRR

26

Phng php tnh: Gii phng trnh

PP ni suy

PP hnh hc

MS Excel


ThS. V Ngn Th 4

Tnh IRR bng PP gii phng trnh

27

Nm 0 1

NCF -1000 1100

Ta c

NPV = -1000 + 1100*(1+IRR)-1 = 0

IRR = 10%

Tnh IRR bng PP ni suy

28

Trong :

r1: l sut chit khu lm cho d n c NPV1>0

r2: l sut chit khu lm cho d n c NPV2


ThS. V Ngn Th 5

Dng tin i du nhiu ln

33

Nm 0 1 2

NCF -1200 3200 -2000

tnh IRR, ta cho NPV = 0, khi :

0

)1(

2000

)1(

32001200

21

rrNPV

T phng trnh trn ta thit lp phng trnh bc hai nh sau:

-1200 (1 + r)2 + 3200 (1 + r) 2000 = 0

Phng trnh c hai nghim: r1 = 0.67 tc IRR = 67%

r2 = 0.00 tc IRR = 0%

Quy m khc nhau

34

Ta tnh c IRR(A) = IRR(B) = 20%

t 0 1 NPV (10%)

A -100 120 9,09

B -1000 1200 90,9

Thi k phn tch khc nhau

35

t 0 1 2 3 4 5 NPV(8%) IRR

A -1000 1120 37 12%

B -1000 0 0 0 0 1607,7 94 10%

Thi im u t khc nhau

36

t 0 1 2 3 4 5 NPV(10%) IRR

A - 1000 1200 90,9 20%

B - 1000 1200 62,09 20%

37

Ch tiu thi gian hon vn

L thi gian cn thit c th hon tr li vn u t b ra

L thi gian cn thit tng hin gi thu hi bng tng hin gi vn u t


38

T

t

t

t

T

t

t

t rCrB00

11

Cch tnh:

Tnh da trn dng Ngn lu rng

Tnh hin gi dng Ngn lu

Tnh hin gi ngn lu ly k


ThS. V Ngn Th 6

V d 5.

39

0 1 2 3 4

NCF

(USD)

-100.000 40.000 30.000 30.000 35.000

Tm PP ca d n t thng tin sau



0 1 2 3 4

NCF (USD) -100.000 40.000 30.000 30.000 35.000

HSCK (7%) 1 0,935 0,873 0,816 0,763

PV(NCF) -100.000 37.400 26.190 24.480 26.705

PV(NCF) ly k -100.000 -62.600 -36.410 -11.930 14.775

Xt n ht nm 3, d n vn cn thiu li 1 khon l 11.930 USD.

Hin gi li nhun trong nm th 4 l 26.705 USD

mi thng = 26.705 / 12 = 2.225,42 USD

S thng trong nm 4 hon vn = 11.930 / 2.225,42 = 5,4 ~ 6 thng

Vy PP = 3 nm 6 thng

Cch khc: PP = 3+ 11.930/26.705 3,5 nm

40


u im:

Cho bit lc no th vn c thu hi.

T c gii php rt ngn thi gian .

Nhc im:

Khng cp n s din bin ca chi ph v li ch ca d n sau khi hon

vn.

D ng nhn phi chn d n c PP nh nht, do c th b qua cc d n

c NPV ln.

Ph thuc nhiu vo li sut tnh ton r

41

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