chris rohrs
TRANSCRIPT
Given unfolding and unprecedented economic developments, TVB announced in mid-October that it
would re-visit its Forecast. We are reaching out to all of our input sources and ask them to review the
projections they gave us last summer. Given the instability in all markets, however, it's unlikely that new numbers will come together very soon. In the interim,
be aware that the above numbers are subject to change pending circumstances in the consumer
economy and the advertising marketplace. Amended forecasts will be issued as soon as market visibility
allows.
Y-T-D 2008 Spot Revenue Analysis
1st Q ’08 -5.9 -2.32nd Q ’08 -9.1 -7.61st H ’08 -7.6 -5.1
July ’08 -9.7 -6.1Y-T-D -8.0 -5.3
TVB Estimates GTSS
Spot TV % Change Base Total
Automotive – Fctry, Dlr Assn & Dlrs -13.5Restaurants -3.8Home & Building -4.9Telecom, incl. Cable & Satellite Srvcs+1.5Government & Organizations +28.8Beauty, Health & Medical Srvcs -0.9Financial -7.5Amusements & Events -0.1Property & Casualty +12.9Motion Pictures -21.9
1st Half 2008 Category Analysis
Source: TNS Media Intelligence
% ChangeTop 10 Spot Categories2008/2007
Automotive Ad Spending 1st H 2008
Chrysler-Cerberus 538,845 766,336 -29.7Ford 864,452 1,197,493 -27.8General Motors 1,384,186 1,419,022 -2.5
Subtotal Big 3 2,787,483 3,382,850 -17.6
BMW 125,613 124,126 1.2Daimler 175,018 124,349 40.7Honda 543,354 548,858 -1.0Hyundai/KIA 399,569 462,426 -13.6Isuzu 655 1,401 -53.3Mazda 176,807 178,556 -1.0Mitsubishi 75,443 104,004 -27.5Nissan 477,881 564,048 -15.3Toyota 918,522 1,025,006 -10.4Volkswagen 204,077 154,720 31.9
Subtotal All Other 3,096,939 3,287,495 -5.8
Grand Total 5,884,423 6,670,345 -11.8
Overall $ Overall $ %
Parent Co. 1st H 2008 1st H 2007 Ch.
Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 9/2/08
Automotive Spot TV $ 1st H 2008
Chrysler-Cerberus 203,218 226,761 -10.4Ford 245,363 275,522 -10.9General Motors 229,234 339,948 -32.6
Subtotal Big 3 677,816 842,232 -19.5
BMW 26,933 32,756 -17.8Daimler 43,724 37,983 15.1Honda 177,104 209,015 -15.3Hyundai/KIA 106,656 103,837 2.7Isuzu 130 347 -62.4Mazda 55,285 44,087 25.4Mitsubishi 18,373 53,938 -65.9Nissan 139,717 172,462 -19.0Toyota 319,347 341,701 -6.5Volkswagen 48,743 38,790 25.7
Subtotal All Other 936,012 1,034,918 -9.6
Grand Total 1,613,828 1,877,150 -14.0
1st H 2008 1st H 2007Spot TV $ Spot TV $ %
Parent Co. ($000) ($000) Ch.
Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 9/2/08
Automotive Spot TV Share 1st H 2008
Chrysler-Cerberus 37.7 29.6Ford 28.4 23.0General Motors 16.6 24.0
Subtotal Big 3 24.3 24.9
BMW 21.4 26.4Daimler 25.0 30.5Honda 32.6 38.1Hyundai/KIA 26.7 22.5Isuzu 19.9 24.7Mazda 31.3 24.7Mitsubishi 24.4 51.9Nissan 29.2 30.6Toyota 34.8 33.3Volkswagen 23.9 25.1
Subtotal All Other 30.2 31.5
Grand Total 27.4 28.1
1st H 2008 1st H 2007Spot TV Spot TV
Parent Co. % Share % Share
Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 9/2/08
Automotive Spot TV Share
2002 30.42003 28.62004 28.62005 27.22006 31.12007 30.2
1st H 2007 28.1 1st H 2008 27.4
AutomotiveAd Spending for Spot TV
Year of Share
Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 9/2/08
Base Business Analysis
Year % Change2000 8.72001 -15.62002 8.72003 0.62004 4.62005 -1.22006 2.42007 -1.8Thru July 2008 -8.0
2007/2008 Political Analysis
1st Half 40 548 508 1270.0
2nd Half 426 1,7021,276 299.5
Total 466 2,250 1,784 382.8
Source: CMAG
Dollars (M) 2007 2008(e) $ Change % Change
Now The Year Ahead
What Can We Expect?
Here’s What the Industry Analysts
Are Saying About 2009
Participating Firms
BIA FinancialBMO Capital MarketsJackMyers Media Business ReportUniversal McCannVeronis Suhler StevensonVogel CapitalWachovia
BIA Financial
Local Spot -5.0 +6.0Nat’l Spot -7.0 +5.0Network -4.5 +5.0Nat’l Synd. -3.5 +4.5Network Cable +1.5 +5.0Local Cable +2.5 +6.0Brdcst Online +25.0 +15.0Brdcast Wireless N/A +25.0
2009 2010(% Change)
BMO Capital Markets
Total Spot -9.0 +17.0Network -1.0 +4.0Syndication -3.0 +2.0Network Cable +6.0 +6.0Local Cable +1.0 +2.0
(% Change)2009 2010
JackMyers Media Business Report
Local Spot -11.5 +3.0Nat’l Spot -7.5 +4.0Network -4.0 0.0Syndication 0.0 +1.0Network Cable +3.0 +4.0Local Cable +1.0 +3.5Brdcst Online +20.0 +18.0Brdcst Wireless +40.0 +50.0
2009 2010(% Change)
Universal McCann
Local Spot 0.0 +4.0Nat’l Spot -6.0 +7.0Network 0.0 +6.0Syndication +1.0 +3.0Network Cable +4.0 +6.0Local Cable +4.0 +7.0Brdcst Online +10.0 +10.0Brdcst Wireless +8.0 +10.0
2009 2010(% Change)
Veronis Suhler Stevenson
Local Spot -6.1 4.2Nat’l Spot -11.1 5.5Network -5.1 4.5Syndication -3.5 2.4Network Cable 5.1 6.3Spot Cable 6.8 8.6Brdcst Online 26.5 21.2Brdcst Wireless 51.4 44.7
2009 2010(% Change)
Vogel Capital
Local Spot -3.0 +3.0Nat’l Spot -3.0 +2.0Network +1.5 +1.5Syndication +1.5 +2.0Network Cable +2.0 +2.5Local Cable 0.0 +2.5Brdcst Online +7.5 +5.0Brdcst Wireless +7.0 +6.0
2009 2010(% Change)
Wachovia Securities
Local Spot -6.0 +2.0Nat’l Spot -10.0 +8.0Network 0.0 +3.0Syndication -1.0 +1.0Network Cable +10.0 +12.0Local Cable +3.0 +5.0Brdcst Online +50.0 +50.0Brdcst Wireless +60.0 +60.0
2009 2010(% Change)
Industry Analysts Estimates 2009 – Local Spot
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0Local Spot Ranges% Change
Industry Analysts Estimates 2009 – Nat’l Spot
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0National Spot Ranges% Change
Local Spot -5.3 +3.7Nat’l Spot -7.4 +5.3Network -1.9 +3.4Syndication -1.2 +2.3Network Cable +4.5 +6.6Local Cable +2.6 +4.9Brdcst Online +23.2 +19.9Brdcst Wireless +33.3 +32.6
Summary of the Industry Expert Forecasts
2009 2010(% Change)
TV Rep Surveyfor 2009-2010
National Spot -11.9 +12.0
National Online +21.6 +21.6
12 Participants
TV Rep Survey
2009 2010(% Change)
2009 Rep SurveyMean
-11.9%
-18-16-14-12-10-8-6-4-20
% Change
And Now TVB’s Forecast for 2009 & 2010
Market Influences – 2009/2010
Consumer confidence, spending… Energy prices Food prices Debt and credit problems Real estate Political leadership
Market Influences – 2009/2010
Overall ad spending levels“Established”/”Emerging” balanceKey categories: Auto Political Retail Telecom Financial
Market Influences – 2009/2010
Technology and consumer adoption(DVR; online video; mobile web)IT and e-Biz applicationsSocial media marketingInteractive TV adoptionGrowth rates of Search and online display ads
Borrell Projection – Total Local Online
Source: Borrell Associates, Aug. 2008
Local Online Ad Revenue Trends 2003-2010F
Borrell Projection – Local Broadcast Online
Local Broadcast TV Web Revenues ($ in millions)
$75 $119$283
$447
$772
$1,158
$1,448
$1,665
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008p 2009f 2010f
Source: Borrell Associates, Aug. 2008
Local Broadcast TV Web Revenues
3.8% 5.8% 6.7% 8.1% 8.8% 9.0% 9.3% 8.8%Shareof Total
TVB Forecast 2009
Local Spot -1.0 to +2.0Nat’l Spot -10.0 to -7.0Total Spot -5.0 to -2.0Station Website +25 to +35Station Wireless +25 to +50
(% Change)
TVB Forecast 2010
Local Spot +1.5 to +5.5Nat’l Spot +12.5 to +16.5Total Spot +6.0 to +10.0Station Website +20 to +25Station Wireless +35 to +75
(% Change)
Base Business Comparison
2004 4.6% $1,600 10.1%
2005 -1.2% 479 -5.5%2006 2.4% 1,980 8.5%2007 -1.8% 466 -7.4%2008(e) -7.4% 2,250 -0.0%2009(e) 3.1% 700 -3.5%2010(e) 2.6% 2,000 8.0%
TotalBase POL $ (Base + Political)
Source: CMAG, TVB
(% Change)At Mid-Point of Forecast Range
2003
-2.42004
+10.12005
-5.52006
+8.52007
-7.42008*
-0.02009*
-3.52010*
+8.0
Over Last 12 Mos.Over Last 24 Mos.
Total Spot TV: 2 Year Increments
Source: Universal McCann/TVB Station Time Sales Surveys
* TVB Estimate
(% Change)At Mid-Point of Forecast Range
Index of the Growth of Spot TV
In 24 Month Cycles(‘95-’96 = 100)
At Mid-Point of Forecast Range
123.7127.8
123.2 123.6
'03-'04 '05-'06 '07-'08 '09-'10
2008
Local Station Revenue Model
(Dollars in millions)
Television Advertising $24,550 93.8Internet 1,158 4.4Mobile 21 0.1Retransmission Consent 450 1.7
Total Local Station Revenue $26,179 100.0
% of Total
Sources: Universal McCann, Borrell Associates, Information Week, Heavy Reading, B&C, SNL Kagan
2010
Local Station Revenue Model
(Dollars in millions)
Television Advertising $25,585 89.8Internet 1,665 5.8Mobile 250 0.9Retransmission Consent 1,000 3.5
Total Local Station Revenue $28,500 100.0
% of Total
Sources: Universal McCann, Borrell Associates, Information Week, Heavy Reading, B&C, SNL Kagan
Local Station Revenue Model
$22,000$23,000$24,000$25,000$26,000$27,000$28,000$29,000
2008 2010
Spot TV Internet Mobile Retrans($ millions)
Index of the Growth of Local Revenue
In 24 Month Cycles(‘95-’96 = 100)
All revenue
124.2130.0 130.2
136.5
'03-'04 '05-'06 '07-'08 '09-'10
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