climatechange india

7/31/2019 Climatechange India

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India - Climate Change and Food Security

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NH RaoNational Academy of Agricultural Research

Management, Rajendranagar, Hyderabad


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outline

Climate related changes

Temperature (averages and extremes)

Precipitation (averages and extremes)

Intensity, frequency, duration, location of extreme

weather events

Sea level rise

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations

projections

implications for food security

policy


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Changes in temperature

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

DJF MAM JJAS ON Annual

SEASONS

TEMP.TREND

inC/100yrs

Regional Variations in Max Temp Trends

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

West Him. North West North

Central

North Eas t West

Coast

East Coast Interior

Pen.

Max Temp Trends

T increase for India ~0.5 C/100yr(1901-2007); 0.2 C/10yr (1971-2007)

Both Max and Min T are increasing

Max T increase is at a faster rate Winter months show larger

increase

West coast, North East andWestern Himalayan show largerincrease


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Changes in rainfall

Low & Moderate events (10cm)

V. Heavy events (>15cm)

No long-term trend in all-India meanMonsoon Rainfall since 1871

Epochs of above/below normal monsoonactivity with a periodicity of approx. 30 yrs(current period - below normal epoch)

Changes in rainfall characteristicsincrease in frequency of high rainfall events


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share of GHG emissions

Indias share:

1990 2000

Source : Sharma et al, 2006

Greenhouse gas emissions, 2004 estimates (million mt, CO2e)

CO2 CH4 N2O PFC HFC SF6 Total

World 28,485 6,408 3,286 108 381 60 38,726

India 1,222 548 71 3 8 2 1,853(5% of total)

Indian 0 317 58 0 0 0 375 (20% of Indian)

agriculture Source: IFPRI, 2009

GWP of CH4 : 25 times CO2 ; GWP of N2O : 298times CO2


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status of climate models

PRECIS

source: Rupakumar et al, 2006

observed


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Projections (2071-2100)

Temperature Rainfall

by end of 21st century: rainfall increase by 15-40%

mean annual temperature increase by 3C to 6C.

maximum increase over northern India.

more warming over: land; winter, and post monsoon


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climate change and food security assessment

crop

models

crop models+

farm/regionaldatabases

+GIS

Crop models+

farm/regional

databases+GIS

+vulnerabilityassessments

Fig source: Ingram etal, 2005


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factors affecting productivity

rising temperature

decrease in length of growing

period

monsoon dependence

increase in rainfall offset by risein temperature

link with water security

increase in water resources

in most river basins

increased variability because

of increased rainfall variability,

floods/ droughts

Acute physical water

scarce conditions

Constant water

scarcities and shortage

Seasonal / regularstressed conditions

Rare water shortages


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impacts on productivity

Source PK Aggarwal, 2008

productivity decrease due to increase in temperature and decrease inwater availability (especially in Indo-Gangetic plains).

greater loss in rabi ; every 1oC increase in temperature reduces wheatproduction by 4-5 million tons.

increased climatic extremes- droughts and floods- lead to increased

production variability

increased fertilizer requirement for the same production targets; leading

to higher emissions

loss of 1.5 million tons of milk by 2020 in business as usual scenario

increasing sea and river water temperatures affect fish breeding,

migration, and harvests

effects on microbes, pathogens, and insects

quality of several commodities could change, e.g basmati rice,

medicinal and aromatic plants


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Food UtilizationNutritionalValue

Social ValueFood safety

Food AccessAffordabilityAllocation

Preference

Food AvailabilityProductionDistribution

Exchange

Stability of production base

determinants of food security


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household: food insecurity in India

Fig source: MSSRF

Food security assessment

Additional undernourisheddue to climate change


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Adaptation options

Agronomy: time of planting, changes in inputs, timing, water

management New crops/varieties: drought/heat resistant

diversification

With Adaptation

T (+ 2C) + precipitation (+) 7% GDPAgri 7%

T (+ 3.5C) + precipitation (+ 15% ) GDPAgri 2.5%

Poverty Hunger (Kavikumar, 2002)

The adaptive capacity of small and marginal farmers is severelylimited by dependence on natural factors, access to inputs, andinstitutional support systems


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% Change in Cereal Yield vs. Temperature Change(with/without adaptation) from 69 Modeling Studies

Synopsis low latitude cereal yields < current, even

with modest warmingprojected reduction for South Asia (20%)

can challenge food security with increasing climate variability and

frequencies of extreme events, crop

yield losses can occur at smaller meantemperature increases

Climate change likely to affect farmers notby gradual change in climate conditions,but by changes in frequencies of extremes(droughts, excessive rainfall, heat stress)

A change in climate variability is worsefor crops than slow, gradual climatechange

(source: Easterling 2005)


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IPCC Definition

Vulnerability is the degree to which a systemissusceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverseeffects of climate change, including climate

variabilityand extremes.

Vulnerability is a function of the character,magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation

to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and itsadaptive capacity

Vulnerability


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Vulnerability assessment

(Example: OBrien et al 2004)

1. Adaptive capacity =

f (biophysical, socioeconomic, technical factors)

- biophysical factors: soil depth, quality; groundwater

- socioeconomic factors: literacy, gender equity,alternatives

- technical factors: irrigation, infrastructure

2. Sensitivity to stress (dryness, monsoon dependence)

3. Exposure (from climate scenarios)


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Low adaptive capacity: districts in

Bihar (Jharkhand), Rajasthan,

Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh,Maharashtra, Karnataka

Biophysical

vulnerability

Social

vulnerabilityTechnical

vulnerability

Adaptivecapacity


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Climate sensitivity

1961-90 With exposure:

2x CO2

High Climate Sensitivity: districts in Rajasthan,

Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, and

Uttar Pradesh.


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Indian agriculture - current vulnerability to FutureClimate Change

Hot spots: districts inJharkhand

Rajasthan

Gujarat

Northern Maharashtra

Madhya Pradesh

Follow up:

Targeted studies at village level

in above districts to validate or

identify barriers at local level

Useful for assessing relative distribution ofvulnerability to climate change at district level


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Rice cultivation

23%

Manure

management

5%

Emission from

soils

12%

Enteric

fermentation

59%

Crop residues

1%

Mitigation: which sectors contribute more to GHGemissions

Source PK Aggarwal, 2008


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Mitigation strategies

Crop management: plant breeding, nutrient management, watermanagement, rice management, land use change, agroforestry,

Grazing land management

Management of Soil organic matter

Restoration of degraded lands

Livestock management: feed management, dietary additives,animal breeding

Waste management

Bio-energy

Carbon sequestration soil as carbon sink zero tillage,conservation tillage


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Adaptation vs mitigation issues for agriculturalresearch

Adaptation

focus on crop breeding and management responsesclimate change is global, whereas adaptation is intensely local

significant uncertainties in scaling down model scenarios to local scales

adaptation is seasonal and usually considered at 3 to 20 year time horizons,

whereas climate change scenarios are for far future, 2050 or 2100

relevance of many current adaptation studies is therefore uncertain

Mitigation

agriculture as part of solution to climate change problem

BMPs can significantly reduce emissions (intermittent irrigation and drainage

reduces methane emissions by 40%; conservation tillage, fertilizermanagement, livestock feed improvements can reduce GHGs)

reduced GHGs can earn carbon credits (can be offset against subsidies)

needs better understanding of processes and high traceability of BMPs


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Institutional arrangements in India


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ICAR Network on Climate Changeand Agriculture: Thematic areas


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A Network on Climate Changeand agriculture launched in2004 for studies on impactassessment, adaptation andmitigation options

Current strength:

23 institutes

> 100 scientists

more planned

ICAR Network on Climate Change and Agriculture


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Thank You

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