confidential grouper acquisition opportunity august 14, 2006 for 投資検討委員会 (8/16 gec...

21
CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity August 14, 2006 for 投投投投投投投 (8/16 GEC 投投投 Gp CEO 投投投投投投

Upload: mercy-williamson

Post on 29-Jan-2016

214 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity August 14, 2006 for 投資検討委員会 (8/16 GEC 付議後 Gp CEO 承認予定案件)

CONFIDENTIAL

Grouper Acquisition Opportunity

August 14, 2006for 投資検討委員会(8/16 GEC 付議後 Gp CEO 承認予定案件)

Page 2: CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity August 14, 2006 for 投資検討委員会 (8/16 GEC 付議後 Gp CEO 承認予定案件)

page 2

Executive Summary目的急速に人気を獲得しつつある動画共有サイトの1つである grouper.com を運営する Grouper Networks, Inc. 社

(“Grouper”)の買収により、拡大するユーザー制作コンテンツ (user-generated content) 市場に進出。追加収入ポテンシャルとなると

共に将来的には SPE におけるデジタル動画配信サービスやソニー Gp の他の関連事業との連携へ発展の可能性がある。

Grouper会社概要設立: 2004 年 3 月  所在地: San Francisco, US    資本金: $5.1 million   株主: Management: 40% 、 VC Fund 45% (Accela, Applegreen Capital, DAG Ventures, T-Online

Ventures)Employee Options: 12% 、 Friends and Families: 3%

業務内容: UGC (user-generated content) を観たり( watch) ・共有したり (share) ・制作したり (create) するサイト運営(’ 05/12-) ユーザー数: 700 万人(うち US 300 万人)、業界 2 位。掲載ビデオ数 : 11.2 万。広告収入モデルを目指す。

特徴:     他サービス (ex YouTube) と比較して Share, Create で差別化。具体的には気に入った動画を友達にメールで紹介、  one-click で他 SNS 等サイトに posting 可能、 iPod/PSP への簡単な download 、 Webcamを使った Real-time upload 、 editing 。映像と音楽の mash-up 。 P2P 技術と強力な経営陣。 

買収概要出資比率: 発行済み株式の 100%出資金額: US$65 million  ( Grouper 概算企業価値: DCF US$149.6 mil, 類似企業比較 US$80 ~ 110 mil )支払方法: 契約時 US$52.5 mil + Grouper のパフォーマンス等に基づいた支払い: US$12.5 mil              ( 1 年目売上リンク $2.5 mil 、 1-2 年目の売上と Stream 数リンク $7.5 mil 、 3 年間の Exec Retention(5 名 )

$2.5 mil )  採算性 NPV/IRR : US$89.0 mil, 47% (OP @ 16.5% 。経企試算 : after-tax @ 10%=63mil, 32% )Deepwarter Mark : US$▲76.4mil (’08/3 月 )

その他・本買収にかかる exclusive negotiation 期間 (7/25-) が 8/18 に終了予定であり、 8/16 GEC にて Gp CEO 承認の取得を希望・ SPE の Good faith 以外の理由で Deal 不成立の場合は SPE に $4mil を出資させる権利を Grouper は持つ( $62.5mil の評価

base )

Page 3: CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity August 14, 2006 for 投資検討委員会 (8/16 GEC 付議後 Gp CEO 承認予定案件)

page 3

Grouper Management Team

• Josh Felser, CEO & Co-founder– President & Co-founder Spinner (Sold to AOL for $320M); GM AOL’s music brands;

Business development at News Corp

• Dave Samuel, President & Co-founder– CEO and Co-founder Spinner; VP Technology AOL, MIT

• Aviv Eyal, CTO & Co-founder– CTO and Co-founder Friskit; Lead engineer Microsoft Multimedia

• Mike Sitrin, VP Revenue & Co-founder– Director Marketing and Commerce AOL, Director of Sales Spinner

• Jonathan Shambroom, VP Product– VP Product Jumpstart, Director Product: Evite (Sold to IAC), When.com (Sold to AOL),

PF.Magic (Sold to Learning Co)

Page 4: CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity August 14, 2006 for 投資検討委員会 (8/16 GEC 付議後 Gp CEO 承認予定案件)

page 4

Grouper Service Highlights

WatchWatch

• Home page with “video wall” of user generated content; 80% click-through

ShareShare CreateCreate

• Share with users• Post videos to personal

pages on other sites

• Easy-to-use downloadable tools for creating and editing videos

Differentiated from YouTube and Other CompetitorsDifferentiated from YouTube and Other CompetitorsCompetes with YouTubeCompetes with YouTube

Page 5: CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity August 14, 2006 for 投資検討委員会 (8/16 GEC 付議後 Gp CEO 承認予定案件)

page 5

Grouper Service Highlights: Watch Videos

•Home page with “video wall” of user generated content (80% click-through)

•Content can be discovered through:–Rotation in video wall–Search–Channels

•Ability to download content to multiple devices (iPod, PSP)

Page 6: CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity August 14, 2006 for 投資検討委員会 (8/16 GEC 付議後 Gp CEO 承認予定案件)

page 6

Grouper Service Highlights: Share Videos

•Easy upload of user videos

•One click publishing to other sites

•E-mail to friends in users’ MSN, Hotmail, and Yahoo accounts

•P2P client enables download of original, high quality files

•Add video comments

Page 7: CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity August 14, 2006 for 投資検討委員会 (8/16 GEC 付議後 Gp CEO 承認予定案件)

page 7

Grouper Service Highlights: Create Videos

•Real-time recording and upload from web cams

•Proprietary client with easy-to-use editing tools–Select video–Select photos and tracking / panning effects

–Select music

Page 8: CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity August 14, 2006 for 投資検討委員会 (8/16 GEC 付議後 Gp CEO 承認予定案件)

page 8

54.1

30.5

8.53.0 2.6

22.0

9.315.2

10.5 8.6 8.34.7 2.4 1.1

4.6 4.2 4.1 3.21.1

Social Network Store Channel Promotional

Social Networks are Growing Quickly and Attracting the Largest Audiences for Digital Video Content

• Provide interactivity between users• Increasingly dependent on user-

generated video• Primarily advertising based revenues

• Aggregates video across content providers for purchase

• Uses a range of models including sell-thru, rental, and subscription

• On-demand videos in programmed micro-channels or on a show-by-show basis,

• Business model primarily includes advertising, with some upsell to subscription

• Predominantly short video clips that promote the site owner’s content, merchandise, and brand

• May include some advertising, and minimal commerce capabilities, but is promotional in nature

Monthly Unique Users (mm)G

rouper

*

Source: Nielsen NetRatings. Figures as of 8/10/06.* Grouper unique user numbers as provided by company. Number of unique users represents US base of direct and embedded. Worldwide unique users total approximately 7 million.

Page 9: CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity August 14, 2006 for 投資検討委員会 (8/16 GEC 付議後 Gp CEO 承認予定案件)

page 9

Grouper Performance Against Competitors

Ease of UseCommunity

ConnectionsFeaturesQuality of Content P2P Client

TechnologyTechnology ContentContent ManagementManagement

Strength of Leadership

MonthlyUnique

Users (mm)

3.0

1.7

0.5

1.0

2.4

2.6

0.03

1.0

0.5

1.2

0.3

0.5

30.5

• Strong, experienced team

• Unknown

• Unknown

• Weak team

• Strong (but captive to Viacom)

• Unknown

• Unknown

• Average

• Unknown

• Unknown

• Unknown

• Unknown

• Young, limited experience

Source: Grouper Management and SPE assessment

Page 10: CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity August 14, 2006 for 投資検討委員会 (8/16 GEC 付議後 Gp CEO 承認予定案件)

page 10

Competitors Are Investing in Social Networks

Social Networks Generate Value for Traditional Content Owners

Social Networks Generate Value for Traditional Content Owners

Attracting large audiences and creating legitimate alternative distribution channels

Offering user-generated video and driving advertising revenue

Two-way medium with high degree of interactivity, customer engagement and feedback

Provide opportunities to create derivatives of existing properties

Harness users’ creativity to identify and develop new concepts

Attracting large audiences and creating legitimate alternative distribution channels

Offering user-generated video and driving advertising revenue

Two-way medium with high degree of interactivity, customer engagement and feedback

Provide opportunities to create derivatives of existing properties

Harness users’ creativity to identify and develop new concepts

• Acquired Intermix / MySpace for $580MM

• Acquired IGN for $650MM and Scout for $170MM

• $900MM search advertising deal with Google

7/18/2005

9/09/2005

8/07/2006

• Acquired Lightningcast for online video ad insertion technology

• Launched free video portal with content from A&E, MTV, Warner

5/18/2006

• Acquired iVillage for $592MM

• Promoting new series on YouTube

3/06/2006

6/27/2006

• Acquired iFilm for $49MM

• Agreed to distribute MTV content over Google’s AdSense network

• Announced pending acquisition of Atom Entertainment for $200MM (includes Addicting Clips)

10/13/2005

8/07/2006

8/09/2006

8/1/2006

Page 11: CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity August 14, 2006 for 投資検討委員会 (8/16 GEC 付議後 Gp CEO 承認予定案件)

page 11

Grouper Would Provide Opportunities for SPE and Sony

• Could help address needs for complementary services– Enable users of Sony cameras and camcorders increased interactivity with content– Provides initial base of unprotected content for PSP and Walkman

• Potentially complementary to existing service efforts– PSBG eyeVi initiative selected Grouper to develop its service prototype– Expands Connect’s service capabilities by adding user-generated content

• Grouper technology built to support ad-based and transactional business models

• Management team has required expertise

• Brand has demonstrated traction and strong growth potential

• Platform for SPE to market and distribute studio content online

• Enhance SPE’s existing advertising revenues

• Build software capabilities

• Address core business challenges in meeting growth objectives

Standalone Business Growth Opportunity

Standalone Business Growth Opportunity

Traditional SPEBusiness Opportunity

Traditional SPEBusiness Opportunity

Could Provide Value toSony Devices

Could Provide Value toSony Devices

Page 12: CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity August 14, 2006 for 投資検討委員会 (8/16 GEC 付議後 Gp CEO 承認予定案件)

page 12

Comparable Company Analysis Supports a $80-$110MM Valuation

Recent FundingsRecent

Fundings

Recent Acquisitions

Recent Acquisitions

GrouperRound of Amount Unique EV / Unique Post Money Value Based On

($ mil) Date Funding Raised Users (mm) Users Valuation EV/UU Multiple*

Facebook 4/19/2006 2 $25.0 7.68 $11.16 $71.4 - $100.0 $33.5

Friendster** 11/6/2003 1 $13.0 1.70 $31.18 $53.0 $93.5

Metacafe 7/1/2005 2 $15.0 1.95 $26.40 $42.9 - $60.0 $79.2

Brightcove 11/22/2005 2 $16.2 0.20 $220.00 $44.0 NM

YouTube*** 3/31/2006 2 $8.0 6.00 $16.67 $100.0 $50.0

BitTorrent 9/27/2005 1 $8.8 0.38 $123.13 $35.0 - $58.3 NM

Veoh Networks 4/18/2006 1 $12.5 0.10 $250.00 $25.0 NM

Median $51.4 $64.6

Implied Acquisition Valuation (at 25% Premium) $64.3 $80.8

iVillage 3/3/2006 ACQ $600.0 14.0 $42.86 $600.0 $128.6

Intermix / MySpace 7/18/2005 ACQ $580.0 17.7 $32.77 $580.0 $98.3

thePlatform 6/1/2006 ACQ $80.0 -- -- $80.0 NM

Median $580.0 $113.4

Implied Acquisition Valuation NM $113.4

Source: Funding information provided by VentureSoruce.com. Unique user data from Nielsen NetRatings and ComScore MediaMetrix.* Grouper value based on EV/UU based on US unqiue users of 3.0 million.** Post money valuation for Friendster provided at $53.0 million.*** Pre money valuation for YouTube on latest round of funding from Sequoia Capital has been discussed at $100 mllion. Guidance has been provided by Montogomery & Co. and sources at Sequoia.

Comparable Company Statistics

Analysis excludes Viacom’s August 9 acquisition of Atom Films for $200MM

( Mean 58) ( Mean 64)

( Mean 113)

Page 13: CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity August 14, 2006 for 投資検討委員会 (8/16 GEC 付議後 Gp CEO 承認予定案件)

page 13

Revenue Type

Grouper – Revenue Drivers

In-Stream

Base of Users

Drivers of Inventory % Sold Revenue (in $mm)

Unique users for Grouper.com

+

Embedded unique user

Total unique users

Banner and Ad-words

Sponsored Search

Streams per unique X

Total uniques=

Total streams

Page views per unique

XTotal uniques

=Page views

% of page views searching

XPage views

=Searches

% of inventory sold(1)(2)

XTotal Streams

=Streaming ads sold

Ads sold per page (2) viewX

Page views=

Ads sold

% of inventory sold (2)

XSearches

=Ads sold

CPMX

Ads sold=

Revenue

CPMX

Ads sold=

Revenue

CPMX

Ads sold=

Revenue

(1) % of inventory sold for in-stream ads assumes pre-roll ads are placed with only 1/4 to 1/3 of videos.(2) % of inventory sold assumed to be highest in United States initially, Rest of World increases over time.

Page 14: CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity August 14, 2006 for 投資検討委員会 (8/16 GEC 付議後 Gp CEO 承認予定案件)

page 14

Consumer Time is Shifting Online and Driving Growth in Internet Advertising

36.6 40.0 39.6 43.2 44.0 47.2 48.2 52.2 53.3

14.214.7 16.3

18.9 21.724.3 26.9

29.733.4

7.16.0 7.3

9.612.6

16.120.0

24.128.2

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Broadcast Netw orks Cable Netw orks Online

US

$ (

Bil

lio

ns

)

Overall ’05 – ’09 Projected CAGR: 10.1%

Broadcast ’05 – ’09 Projected CAGR: 4.9%

Cable/Sat ’05 – ’09 Projected CAGR: 11.4%

Online ’05 – ’09 Projected CAGR: 22.3%

TV

& O

nli

ne

Ad

ve

rtis

ing

Sp

en

d

Source: Veronis Suhler, 2005 Note: Cable/satellite growth expected to be driven by increasing audience share of prime time ratings, ability to target within specific demographic groups, improved sales system; broadcast growth expected to be driven by sustained ratings and ad rates, continued appeal as optimal means to reach large audiences

Online %: 12% 10% 12% 13% 16% 18% 21% 23% 25%

57.9 60.7 63.271.7

78.3

87.695.1

106.0114.9

Page 15: CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity August 14, 2006 for 投資検討委員会 (8/16 GEC 付議後 Gp CEO 承認予定案件)

page 15

SPE Projections – Base Case (lower than Management Case)

(1) EBIT reflects operating profit less estimated amortization of technology/software assets totaling $20MM over 7 years. Initial estimate requires third party review for final figures. Assumes transaction close at 9/30/2006.

(2) 4 year discounted pre-tax cash flow analysis (2006-2009) performed with a discount rate of 16.5% (in-line with SPE’s normal rate); terminal EBIT multiple of 8.0x.(3) Total consideration includes $52.5m at closing; $12.5m contingent on performance and paid over the course of 2007 and 2008. (4) Deepwater mark represents cumulative cash position.

(millions) FY 2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009

User Activity

End of Period Uniques 20.9 37.2 53.9 76.3

Page Views 899.7 3,385.2 7,621.5 12,506.4

Total Searches 171.5 798.0 1,941.8 3,251.7

Total Streams 1,534.9 5,967.7 12,003.4 17,543.6

P&L Performance

In-Stream 1.42$ 10.06$ 28.25$ 43.02$ Banner / Ad-words 1.18 5.66 12.80 20.99 Sponsored Search 0.46 2.87 10.46 19.51

Total Revenue 3.07$ 18.60$ 51.50$ 83.51$

Sales Commission 0.21$ 1.30$ 3.60$ 5.85$ Video Streaming 1.39 5.39 10.84 15.84 Page View Bandwidth 0.08 0.31 0.69 1.13

Total COGS 1.68$ 6.99$ 15.13$ 22.81$

Gross Profit 1.39$ 11.60$ 36.37$ 60.70$

Total Operating Expenses 10.23$ 18.82$ 23.28$ 29.80$

Operating Profit (8.85)$ (7.22)$ 13.09$ 30.91$

Amortization (1) (1.43)$ (2.86)$ (2.86)$ (2.86)$

EBIT (10.28)$ (10.08)$ 10.23$ 28.05$

Impact on SPE

DCF Value (2) 149.62$

Total Consideration (3) (65.00)$

NPV 88.99$

IRR 47%

Deepwater Mark (4) Mar-08 (76.36)$

Page 16: CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity August 14, 2006 for 投資検討委員会 (8/16 GEC 付議後 Gp CEO 承認予定案件)

page 16

SPE Projections – Base Case Assumptions

Revenue Drivers and AssumptionsRevenue Drivers and Assumptions Cost Drivers and AssumptionsCost Drivers and Assumptions

B

* Represents gross In-Stream CPM, including revenue share to partners.

Discounted Cash FlowDiscounted Cash Flow

FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009

Streaming Bandwidth

Bandwidth cost per MB per Month 50.00$ Cost of Streaming 1 Video 0.0009$ Cost of Streaming One Page 0.0001$

Total Streams (000) 1,534,921 5,967,725 12,003,384 17,543,578 Streaming Costs 1,386$ 5,388$ 10,836$ 15,838$

Total Page Views (000) 899,709 3,385,164 7,621,476 12,506,356 Page View Costs 81$ 306$ 688$ 1,129$

Payroll

Headcount 50 67 77 83

Cost per Head 107$ 140$ 142$ 149$ Total Payroll 5,357$ 9,409$ 10,953$ 12,340$

Marketing

% of Revenue 52.9% 25.8% 9.9% 9.5%Marketing Expense 1,625$ 4,796$ 5,112$ 7,899$

Infrastructure Technology

% of Revenue 54.4% 11.1% 6.9% 5.7%Infrastructure Expense (Total) 1,669$ 2,072$ 3,537$ 4,740$

7.0x 8.0x 9.0x 10.0x

$216 $247 $278 $309

Discount Rate Valuation11.5% $158 $178 $198 $21814.0% 145 163 182 20016.5% 133 150 166 18319.0% 122 137 153 16821.5% 112 126 141 155

Terminal EBIT Multiple

Terminal Value

FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009

Unique Users (000)

Total Unique Users 20,868 37,211 53,905 76,309

Page Views (000)

Grouper.com PVs/Unique 15.9 25.7 32.9 33.5 Total Page Views 899,709 3,385,164 7,621,476 12,506,356

Total Searches (as a % of Page Views) 171,474 797,981 1,941,754 3,251,652

Streams (000)

Streams/Total Uniques 10.1 16.6 21.7 22.4 Total Streams 1,534,921 5,967,725 12,003,384 17,543,578

Sell-Through / Inventory

In-Stream, incl. Embbeded (from Streams) 185,086 999,854 2,717,879 4,455,878

% In-Stream Inventory Sold 12.1% 16.8% 22.6% 25.4%

Banner / Ad-words (from Page Views) 1,152,503 5,703,871 13,222,563 21,713,410

Banner / Adwords Inventory Sold (per page) 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.7

Sponsored Search (from Searches) 31,000 191,649 697,049 1,300,661

% of Sponsored Search Inventory Sold 18.1% 24.0% 35.9% 40.0%

CPMs / Unit Prices

In-Stream CPMs (excl rev share) * 13.92$ 16.29$ 13.77$ 12.54$

Banner / Ad-words CPMs 1.02$ 0.99$ 0.97$ 0.97$

Sponsored Search CPMs 15.00$ 15.00$ 15.00$ 15.00$

Revenue (000)

In-Stream Revenue 1,424$ 10,061$ 28,247$ 43,019$

Banner / Ad-words Revenue 1,181$ 5,662$ 12,796$ 20,986$

Sponsored Search Revenue 465$ 2,875$ 10,456$ 19,510$

Total Revenue 3,070$ 18,598$ 51,499$ 83,515$

Revenue by Territory , including Video and Banner / Adwords (000)

North America Revenue 1,674$ 8,887$ 21,675$ 35,303$

Asia Revenue 181$ 1,050$ 1,978$ 3,002$

Western Europe Revenue 221$ 1,406$ 3,569$ 5,666$

ROW Revenue 35$ 230$ 503$ 758$

Page 17: CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity August 14, 2006 for 投資検討委員会 (8/16 GEC 付議後 Gp CEO 承認予定案件)

page 17

The SPE base case model uses page views to help determine online ad inventory

• Traditional tracking mechanisms do not accurately count the number of page views for Grouper

– Grouper’s advanced technology allows users to view multiple videos without the need to refresh pages

– However, Grouper’s technology also allows the site to refresh and serve multiple ads against a single page view

• The higher level of time spent on Grouper should allow the service to generate more ad inventory than competitors that average 18.8 page views per user per month

• However, the SPE base case model conservatively estimates average first year page views at 15.9

YouTube 37.2

Guba (1) 40.1

Daily Motion 11.1

Sony Connect 13.0

MovieLink 6.3

MetaCafe 32.1

iFilm 11.1

Addicting Clips 10.2

VidiLife 7.9

Average Page Views per Unique Users per Month

Average 18.8

Pageviews

Page 18: CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity August 14, 2006 for 投資検討委員会 (8/16 GEC 付議後 Gp CEO 承認予定案件)

page 18

Average Minutes

per Unique

Average Minutes

per Usage Day

Average Minutes

per Page

Average Usage Days

per Unique

Addicting Clips 1.9 1.0 0.2 1.9Daily Motion 12.8 8.7 0.8 1.5

Ifilm 6.1 4.2 0.6 1.5MetaCafe 8.6 3.9 0.2 2.2MovieLink 10.2 5.9 0.7 1.7

Sony Connect 11.7 6.1 0.9 1.9Vidilife 1.6 1.0 0.1 1.6YouTube 37.9 13.3 0.8 2.8

Median 10.2 5.9 0.7 1.7

Grouper 13.4 8.6 1.2 1.6

Note(s):

(1) Guba's site is focused on longer premium content. This signficantly increases minutes on site.

Addicting Clips 1.9 1.0 0.2 1.9Daily Motion 12.8 8.7 0.8 1.5

Ifilm 6.1 4.2 0.6 1.5MetaCafe 8.6 3.9 0.2 2.2MovieLink 10.2 5.9 0.7 1.7

Sony Connect 11.7 6.1 0.9 1.9Vidilife 1.6 1.0 0.1 1.6YouTube 37.9 13.3 0.8 2.8

Median 10.2 5.9 0.7 1.7

Grouper 13.4 8.6 1.2 1.6

Note(s):

(1) Guba's site is focused on longer premium content. This signficantly increases minutes on site.

YouTube 37.9 13.3 0.8 2.8

Guba (1) 24.9 14.7 0.8 1.7

Daily Motion 12.8 8.7 0.8 1.5

Sony Connect 11.7 6.1 0.9 1.9

MovieLink 10.2 5.9 0.7 1.7

MetaCafe 8.6 3.9 0.2 2.2

iFilm 6.1 4.2 0.6 1.5

Addicting Clips 1.9 1.0 0.2 1.9

VidiLife 1.6 1.0 0.1 1.6

Time spent on Grouper exceeds the industry average

Pageviews

Page 19: CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity August 14, 2006 for 投資検討委員会 (8/16 GEC 付議後 Gp CEO 承認予定案件)

page 19

(1) EBIT reflects operating profit less estimated amortization of technology/software assets totaling $20MM over 7 years. Initial estimate requires third party review for final figures. Assumes transaction close at 9/30/2006.

(2) 4 year discounted pre-tax cash flow analysis (2006-2009) performed with a discount rate of 16.5% and terminal EBIT multiple of 8.0x.(3) Total consideration includes $52.5m at closing; $12.5m contingent on performance and paid over the course of 2007 and 2008. (4) Deepwater mark represents cumulative cash position.

Comparison of Sensitivities on the Operating Model

Upside Case(above management projections)

Upside Case(above management projections)

DownsideDownsideBase Case (below management projections)

Base Case (below management projections)

Increased unique users to 125% of management forecast

Assumes higher CPMs Increased total expenses by 5-10%

of revenue

Increased unique users to 125% of management forecast

Assumes higher CPMs Increased total expenses by 5-10%

of revenue

Maintain management projections for unique user base

Assumes average CPMs Increased total expenses by 5-10%

of revenue

Maintain management projections for unique user base

Assumes average CPMs Increased total expenses by 5-10%

of revenue

Decreased unique users to roughly equal 80% of management forecast

Assumes lower CPMs Increased total expenses by 5-10%

of revenue

Decreased unique users to roughly equal 80% of management forecast

Assumes lower CPMs Increased total expenses by 5-10%

of revenue

(millions)

Operating Statistics

End of Period Uniques

Page Views

Total Searches

Total Streams

Financial Performance

Total Revenue

Total COGS

Gross Profit

Total Operating Expenses

Operating Profit

Amortization (1)

EBIT

DCF Value (2) 336.77$

Total Consideration (3) (65.00)$

Deepwater Mark (4) Dec-07 (69.25)$

Impact on SPE

DCF Value (2) 90.37$

Total Consideration (3) (65.00)$

Deepwater Mark (4) Sep-08 (81.91)$

Impact on SPE

DCF Value (2) 149.62$

Total Consideration (3) (65.00)$

Deepwater Mark (4) Mar-08 (76.36)$

Impact on SPE

FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009

20.9 37.2 53.9 76.3

899.7 3,385.2 7,621.5 12,506.4

171.5 798.0 1,941.8 3,251.7

1,534.9 5,967.7 12,003.4 17,543.6

3.07$ 18.60$ 51.50$ 83.51$

1.68$ 6.99$ 15.13$ 22.81$

1.39$ 11.60$ 36.37$ 60.70$

10.23$ 18.82$ 23.28$ 29.80$

(8.85)$ (7.22)$ 13.09$ 30.91$

(1.43)$ (2.86)$ (2.86)$ (2.86)$

(10.28)$ (10.08)$ 10.23$ 28.05$

FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009

25.6 46.2 67.2 95.4

1,094.2 4,348.5 9,790.3 16,065.2

213.6 1,025.1 2,494.3 4,177.0

1,816.3 7,428.8 15,011.2 22,007.6

4.77$ 29.71$ 83.12$ 136.89$

2.07$ 9.18$ 20.25$ 30.90$

2.70$ 20.53$ 62.87$ 105.99$

10.37$ 20.13$ 30.14$ 41.90$

(7.68)$ 0.41$ 32.73$ 64.09$

(1.43)$ (2.86)$ (2.86)$ (2.86)$

(9.10)$ (2.45)$ 29.87$ 61.24$

FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009

16.2 29.3 42.5 60.1

754.5 2,677.2 6,027.5 9,890.7

140.0 631.1 1,535.6 2,571.6

1,250.7 4,693.4 9,459.4 13,831.0

2.24$ 13.75$ 38.97$ 63.57$

1.35$ 5.44$ 11.81$ 17.83$

0.88$ 8.30$ 27.16$ 45.74$

10.12$ 18.30$ 20.99$ 25.18$

(9.24)$ (10.00)$ 6.17$ 20.57$

(1.43)$ (2.86)$ (2.86)$ (2.86)$

(10.66)$ (12.86)$ 3.31$ 17.71$

NPV $ 276.14 NPV $ 88.99 NPV $ 29.74

Page 20: CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity August 14, 2006 for 投資検討委員会 (8/16 GEC 付議後 Gp CEO 承認予定案件)

page 20

検討課題戦略的意義・競合メディア企業の動向は注目すべき。但し Sony (SPE) としてこの領域に参入する戦略的意義の議論は分

かれる。 - 広告事業 : SPT にて経験値あり ($250mil/yr) vs. 動画配信事業 : Studio Content と UGC の融合は未知

数。 - YouTube含め動画共有サイト事業のビジネスモデルは確立していない。

・他の関連事業 ( エレキ、 PSBG) と合わせた Sony United 的価値の評価の必要性。

著作権問題・ YouTube に代表される各種著作権問題を含んだ買収となることへの懸念。 (eg. NBC: SNL ビデオ削除依頼→和解へ)

・人種的・性的・暴力的コンテンツの排除(管理)の問題

⇒① ”Take-down policy” を掲げ内部手順を確立していれば、デジタルミレニアム著作権法 (DMCA) 上の宥恕規定      あり ( 著作権侵害問題発生時に当該コンテンツを削除すればプロバイダは免責)+通信品位法 (CDA )での規定。

  ②現状で問題となるコンテンツはない、③ Sonyブランドではサービスを行なわない。    

投資資金 (Cash Flow)・本投資は事業計画未計上。 SPE全体の Cash Flow 目標 (絶対値で $100mil) を達成することを条件とすべし。 Deal条件・採算性 ・ Mgmt Retention を確実に行なえるか(有効性評価)・他サイトの統計数値との比較では概ね保守的な前提。 Unique User 数の実現が鍵のように思われる。・広告モデルが成立しない場合は前提が大きく崩れる( eg UGM 上のスポンサードサーチはどの程度有効か)

Page 21: CONFIDENTIAL Grouper Acquisition Opportunity August 14, 2006 for 投資検討委員会 (8/16 GEC 付議後 Gp CEO 承認予定案件)

CONFIDENTIAL

Appendix