delphi method in medical education for phd research scholars - phdassistance
DESCRIPTION
Delphi Survey Research includes the fact that the participants are strangers to one another and that the procedure is iterative, with each round generated from the preceding one’s conclusions. In other words, each participant is given a summary of the variety of ideas expressed in the previous round, as well as the chance to reconsider their own views in light of the feedback provided by the other panellists. This regulated feedback helps to decrease the influence of noise, which is described as communication that distorts data due to personal prejudice and interests rather than issue solving. Learn More:https://bit.ly/3li20UC Contact Us: Website: https://www.phdassistance.com/ UK: +44 7537144372 India No:+91-9176966446 Email: [email protected]TRANSCRIPT
An Academic presentation byDr. Nancy Agnes, Head, Technical Operations, PhdassistanceGroup www.phdassistance.comEmail: [email protected]
Delphi Method inMedical Education ForPHD Research Scholars
Introduction
Designing a Delphi study
Procedure
Procedure of running a Delphi study
Analysis of results
Conclusion
About Phdassistance
Outline
TODAY'S DISCUSSION
The Delphi method was created in the 1950s with thegoal of gathering expert input and reaching aconsensus (Dalkey & Helmer, 1963, p. 458).
It got its name because it was created as asystematic, participatory way of forecasting orpredicting the future, similar to how ancient Greekswent to the Oracle at Delphi to hear their fortunes.
The method gathers views from a panel of experts ina field of real-world expertise and then aggregatesthose judgments to achieve a consensus on an issue.
INTRODUCTION TO LITERATURE REVIEW
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It differs from typical surveys in that it aims to discover what could orshould be, rather than what is (Miller, 2006).
Determine or create a variety of programme choices.
Investigate or reveal the assumptions or knowledge that lead to differingconclusions.
Look for facts that might lead to a consensus among the respondents.
Connect well-informed judgements about a topic that spans a variety offields.
According to Delbecq, Van de Ven, & Gustafson( 1975, pp. 11), Delphi studyare used for the following:
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Educate the response group on the topic's many and connected elements.
Other major aspects of Delphi Survey Research include the fact that theparticipants are strangers to one another and that the procedure is iterative, witheach round generated from the preceding one's conclusions.
In other words, each participant is given a summary of the variety of ideasexpressed in the previous round, as well as the chance to reconsider their ownviews in light of the feedback provided by the other panellists.
This regulated feedback helps to decrease the influence of noise, which isdescribed as communication that distorts data due to personal prejudice andinterests rather than issue solving.
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Delphi studies have been utilized in clinical education toestablish evaluation techniques that are not alwaysstraightforward to describe.
Clinical educators are concerned in changeable behaviorsand clinical competence, not so much in the knowledge andabilities presented in the classroom as in their application inpractice. Because it is impossible to assess all potentialcombinations of knowledge and abilities, assessments of theinformation and skills necessary for competent practicegenerally take the form of a sampling of a small fraction of thetotal possible range of things.
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Furthermore, not all physicians agree on the most critical aspects ofpractice and assessment.
As a result, the Delphi method is an acceptable methodological techniquefor gaining consensus on the crucial question of what to assess, how toassess it, and what measures to apply to improve practise.
In healthcare, Delphi studies have been used for service planning, study ofprofessional traits and skills, assessment instrument creation, andcurriculum development (Cross, 1999; Powell, 2003; Joseph, Hendricks &Frantz, 2011).
DESIGNING A DELPHI STUDY
Participants in a Delphi survey are generally experts in theirfields, and their contributions should help to enhanceknowledge of issues, opportunities, and solutions.
Although there are no defined criteria for selecting the panel,potential members should have similar backgrounds andexperiences in the subject, be capable of making usefulcontributions, and be willing to change their minds in orderto achieve consensus.
It is not sufficient for participants to have a basicunderstanding of the topic under investigation (Pill, 1971; Oh,1974).
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While a diverse panel is suggested for General Delphi Research (Delbecq etal., 1975), Jones and Hunter (1995) propose that domain specialists beemployed in clinical investigations.
Due to the aforementioned considerations, it is critical to demonstrate thepanel's credibility in order to back up the claim that they are true experts in thesubject.
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The panel size is the next factor to consider.
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This is frequently determined by the breadth of theproblem and the number of competent informants /experts available, and there is no consensus in theLiterature On The Ideal size (Hsu & Sandford, 2007).
Depending on the situation, the higher the degree ofdependability of the given elements, the moreparticipants there are.
However, if the individuals' backgrounds arehomogenous, it has been proposed that 10 to 15 peoplemay be adequate (Delbecq, Van de Ven & Gustafson,1975).
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The first round of questionnaires generally comprises of open-endedquestions designed to collect particular information on a topic of expertise,and it acts as a foundation for later rounds (Custer, Scarcella, & Stewart,1999).
This questionnaire may be developed from the literature (Hsu & Sandford,2007) and does not require validity or reliability testing.
The Data Analysis Methodologies used to establish agreement will bedetermined by the structure of the questionnaires, the sorts of questionsasked, and the number of participants.
While the procedure might potentially go on indefinitely, most expertsbelieve that three rounds of surveys is generally enough to reach adecision.
The first round's results are frequently utilised to detectkey themes arising from open-ended questions.
The replies are then compiled into questions that willserve as the foundation for the future rounds.
The data is generally statistically analysed after thesecond round, using either a rank order or ratingapproach (this is usually dependent on larger samplesizes).
The data is analysed to establish the degree ofagreement in the ranking order.
PROCEDURE
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Researchers warn that this degree of agreement should bedetermined prior to the start of Data Collection And AStrategy for how the data will be analysed so that a clearcut-off point for inclusion and exclusion can be established.
The degree of agreement is often set at 75%, although thiscan be changed if no agreement is obtained.
Participants may be requested to justify their rankingjudgments in some circumstances, particularly whenpanellists express opinions that differ from the groups'consensus on a subject or issue.
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PROCEDURE OF RUNNING A DELPHI STUDY
Determine what you want to achieve. What do you want yourpanellists to come to an agreement on?
Create your first set of questions after doing a thoroughexamination of the literature. Make sure that the initial set ofquestions is based on the goals you want to attain.
Check for ambiguity, timing, and appropriateness of replies inyour questions. Send it to a small group of specialists or at thevery least coworkers, and evaluate their replies to confirmthat your questions are relevant to your goal.
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The first round of the survey should be sent out.
Send a reminder to panellists around 1-2 weeks after the original survey wassent, however the exact time periods may depend on the study.
Analyze the first round's replies and use the information to create the secondround's survey.
Round two should be tested on a limited group of panellists to ensure that thereplies will give the information you want.
Send out the second round of the survey.
Send a reminder for the second round. Contd...
Again, the precise duration will be determined by yourspecific requirements and the context of your research.
Analyze the findings of round two's survey and utilisethem to create the survey for round three.
For the third round, test the survey and send it out whenyou're happy.
If necessary, remind panellists to finish.
Examine the results of the third round.
Check to see whether your goals have been met. If youfind that you require more information, add more rounds.
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ANALYSIS OF RESULTS
The panel size and questionnaire design are two factors toconsider when doing Quantitative Analysis.
As a result, the scale of the problem and the quantity ofcompetent informants/experts accessible to you arefrequently factors.
Some studies feel that the greater the number of participants,the better the degree of dependability of the listed factors.Obtaining an agreement level is the most commonly utilisedapproach for achieving consensus in this paradigm.
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
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Although there is debate over the degree or cut-off point for agreement, severalwriters have suggested that 75% agreement is a good starting point.
Other rating procedures are often employed to establish consensus in additionto getting a degree of agreement.
Ranking components in order of significance and computing the mean todetermine the most important to the least important aspects are two of thesegrading approaches.
Likert-type scales are also used to decide whether or not an element should beincluded. As a result, the nature of the analysis will be heavily influenced by thequestionnaire structure, types of questions, and number of participants.
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The establishment of agreement among participants in aQualitative Delphi Research does not rely on statisticalmeasurements.
The conclusion is derived from the study of emerging themes(assuming no structure was previously supplied).
Open-ended question responses are typically in the form ofbrief narratives, which should be analysed using qualitativemethods.
The researcher will look over the replies and group them intothemes that emerge. Advantages and disadvantages of usingthe Delphi method
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS
Whereas dominating individuals in committees and face-to-face meetingsmay monopolise the conversation's direction, the Delphi approacheliminates this by placing all replies on a "even" basis.
Anonymity also means that attendees should only consider the facts infront of them, rather than the speaker's reputation.
By allowing for the revision of previous judgements, anonymity also allowsfor the expression of personal ideas, free critique, and acknowledgment oferrors.
Furthermore, the researcher may filter, summarise, and eliminateunnecessary data, which might be distracting for face-to-face meetingparticipants.
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As a result, potentially distracting group dynamics are eliminated (Hsu & Sandford,2007).One of the most significant drawbacks is the high likelihood of poor response rate andattrition. Furthermore, a Delphi study generally consumes a substantial amount of time andadds significantly to the researcher's burden.
The advantages of employing a Delphi research in the proper setting, however, are thoughtto offer value that is difficult to attain with other approaches.
CONCLUSION
The Delphi method is a good way to reach anagreement on subjects that have no clearanswers and are open to dispute.
If you want your study's results to be regardedseriously, the trustworthiness of the panel youchoose is critical.
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