Michal Till

There are more and more resources available.

The Limits to Growth (1972)Years to depletion predictions in 1972 vs. 1992 1972 1992Gold 29 35Silver 42 39Nickel 96 110Copper 48 50Lead 64 70Manganese 94 101Zinc 50 78Tin 61 53Coal 150 166

Hampl, Mojmír Vyčerpání zdrojů – dobře prodejný mýtus, Praha, CEP – Centrum pro ekonomiku a politiku, 2004

Proved reserves in millions of tons, 1950 and 1990

1950 1990Bauxite 1400 21500Iron 19000 145000Tin 6.0 4.2Nickel 17 59Zinc 70 145Lead 40 70Copper 100 350Chromium 70 420Manganese 500 980

Hampl, Mojmír Vyčerpání zdrojů – dobře prodejný mýtus, Praha, CEP – Centrum pro ekonomiku a politiku, 2004

Simon-Erlich wager

Erlich: "In the 1970s and 1980s . . . hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death“

“I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000” => $10,000 bet on five commodity metals

Simon-Erlich wager

Author: Loren Cobb. Data source: US Geological Survey Data Series 140. Data URL: http://minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/140

The ecologist lost.

(Maybe it’s because he is an entomologist and his specialization are butterflies)

Gas

Canadian government educational comics, 1970’s

Oil: prices

Oil: proven reserves

d

Remaining oil breakdown

Source: OPEC 2005 Annual Statistical Bulletin, http://www.opec.org/library/Annual%20Statistical%20Bulletin/pdf/ASB2005.pdf

Probability & types of reserves

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-0028-01/fs-0028-01.htm

Prices of resources relatative to 1990 US wage

Energy usage vs. GDP (Japan)

http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/chouki/index.htm

Sources

Simon, J. L. The Ultimate Resource II: People, Materials, and Environment, 2nd Edition, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1996

Hampl, Mojmír Vyčerpání zdrojů – dobře prodejný mýtus, Praha, CEP – Centrum pro ekonomiku a politiku, 2004