模糊随机环境下 B2C 电子商务配送系统 CLRIP 集成优化模型陈德慧 1，陈东彦 2

(1. 哈尔滨商业大学 经济学院，哈尔滨 150028；2. 哈尔滨理工大学 应用科学学院，哈尔滨 150080)

【摘要】结合 B2C 电子商务配送系统的特点，在考虑客户需求具有模糊随机性的基础上，将设施选址、车辆路径和库存控制三个层次的决策进行集成优化。建立具有模糊随机变量的混合 0-1 整数规划选址-路径-库存问题（CLRIP）集成优化模型；利用模糊可能均值法将模糊随机模型转化为确定的 CLRIP 模型，并设计了基于优化方法和禁忌搜索算法（TS）的两阶段混合启发算法对其进行求解。最后，利用算例验证了模型的正确性和算法的有效性。

关键词：选址-路径-库存问题；模糊随机；模糊可能均值法；禁忌搜索算法参考文献：[1] Liu S C, Lee S B. A two-phase heuristic method for the multi-depot location routing problem taking inventory

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网络嵌入对消费者团购意愿影响的实证研究张晓丹，龚艳萍，张琴

（中南大学 商学院，长沙 410083） 【摘要】网络团购以其独特的消费模式广受消费者、供应商及相关电子商务网站青睐。以往关于团购的相关文献主要着眼于消费者个体特征对网络团购意愿的影响，缺乏基于群体视角的研究。而随着互联技术的提高，消费者参加网络团购这一行为是嵌入于社会网络之中的，其决策必然受到群体因素影响。鉴于团购环境的改变，以社会网络理论为基础，探讨了网络群体结构嵌入、关系嵌入对团购购买意愿影响的作用机理，检验了感知控制和信任的中介效应，并对比分析了不同团购方式的影响程度。实证结果表明，对于网站发起式团购和消费者发起式团购方式，网络结构嵌入和关系嵌入的影响程度有显著差异。

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基于 GERT 网络的战略性新兴产业技术瓶颈探测模型郭本海 1,2，陈玮 1，吕东东 1

(1.江苏大学 管理学院，江苏 镇江 212013；2.南京航空航天大学 经济与管理学院，南京　210016)

【摘要】构建了以战略性新兴产业技术突破基本过程为基础的 GERT 网络模型，提出技术瓶颈测度系数，结合算例分析并通过数值模拟，探寻产业技术突破过程中的瓶颈节点所在；运用计算机仿真，测度瓶颈节点技术瓶颈测度系数的变化特征。结果表明，关键技术定位及突破等 4 个节点分别为各自阶段的瓶颈，针对瓶颈节点采取相应的技术创新管控措施可有效减小技术瓶颈测度系数直至稳定值。

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基于自我构念的高卷入度产品在线购买意愿研究郝鸿 1，刘尊礼 2，孟宪忠 3，陈洁 3

（1. 上汽集团 质量和经济运行部，上海 200041；2. 上海工程技术大学 管理学院，上海 201620；3. 上海交通大学 安泰经济与管理学院，上海 200030）

【摘要】消费者对高卷入度耐用消费品的网上购买的意愿很低，汽车最具有代表性。但近年来汽车电商发展迅速备受瞩目，因其货值较大，消费者的感知风险较高，不同特征的消费人群对网上购车的接受意愿差异较大。利用 4150 个真实消费者的调查数据，实证分析了消费者的自我构念对其网上购车接受意愿的影响。研究发现，高感知风险下相依自我网上购车意愿更强；自我构念同网上购车意愿的关系受到感知风险的负向调节。品牌信任会减缓感知风险对自我构念和网上购车意愿关系的负向调节作用。根据上述结论，探讨了有实践指导意义的市场措施。

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链与链竞争背景下的制造商定价策略1

李凯，李伟，安岗（东北大学 工商管理学院，沈阳 110169）

【摘要】基于 2 个制造商和 2 个零售商组成的链与链竞争的纵向市场结构，构建了供应链定价形式决策模型，研究了不同条件下制造商在线性定价、两部收费制和转售价格维持（RPM）3种定价形式之间的选择问题。研究发现，制造商最优定价形式选择与 RPM 的规制环境、RPM 的定价协同程度以及产品替代程度有关。在 RPM 规制原则是合理推断的情况下，制造商最优的定价形式取决于产品替代程度以及 RPM 的定价协同程度：当 RPM 的定价协同程度较高时，最优的定价形式是 RPM；当 RPM 的定价协同程度较低时，最优的定价形式取决于产品替代程度。在 RPM 的规制原则是自身违法的情况下，当产品替代程度较弱时，制造商最优的定价形式为两部收费制；反之则为线性定价。

关键词：链与链竞争；定价决策；转售价格维持；定价协同；产品替代程度参考文献 [1] 赵海霞, 艾兴政, 马建华, 等. 风险规避型零售商的链与链竞争两部定价合同[J]. 系统工程学报, 2013,

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1收稿日期：2015-07-18 修订日期：2016-3-24基金项目：国家自然科学基金面上项目（71172150，71472032）作者简介：李 凯（1957-），男，博士，教授，博士生导师。研究方向为公司治理、产业组织理论等。E-mail: likai@mail.neu.edu.cn

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价格串谋行为概率识别及审核决策林菡密 1，孙绍荣 2

（1. 杭州师范大学 钱江学院，杭州 310036 ；2. 上海理工大学 管理学院，上海 200093）【摘要】在第一价格密封价格拍卖背景下，建立竞拍方与干预方间的四阶段序贯博弈模型，通过分

析两者期望收益得到双方均衡策略，最后进一步探讨均衡条件得到拍卖方的串谋概率以及干预方的审核概率。主要作用是提供一种是依据竞拍方的竞拍价格，以筛查竞拍方是否存在价格串谋行为的方法，为是否需要证明价格串谋的存在性提供依据。

关键词：密封第一价格拍卖；价格串谋；串谋筛查；序贯博弈参考文献：[1]Graham D A, Marshall R C. Collusive bidder behavior at single-object second-price and English auctions[J].

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and Economics, 2011, 54(2): 455-492.[13]王宏,陈宏民,等.基于第二价格预拍的竞争者合谋均衡分析[J].中国管理科学，2010,18(3):132-140.[14] 敬辉蓉,李传昭.拍卖中卡特尔的两种合谋机制研究[J].管理工程学报，2008,22(3):130-133.[15]Harrington Jr J E. Detecting cartels[C]//Handbook in antitrust economics. 2006.[16]Porter R H, Zona J D. Detection of bid rigging in procurement auctions[J]. Journal of Political Economy,

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双渠道供应商的差异化定价对渠道的影响林庆 1，何勇 1, 2

（1.复旦大学 管理学院，上海 200433；2. 上海证券交易所 博士后科研工作站，上海 200120）【摘要】在互联网技术和电子商务冲击下，商贸流通渠道正在发生颠覆性变化，原有的商贸流通理

论也面临创新升级挑战。双渠道供应商作为互联网时代出现的新市场主体，其定价方式不仅是一个市场主体的决策行为，而且是能对整个商品销售渠道产生直接影响的关键因素。为此，引入一个代表供应商批发价价差的独立变量，构建由一个双渠道供应商和两个不同类型零售商组成的分销结构模型，通过数值模拟，对比“相同批发价”前提下和“差异性批发价”前提下的市场均衡，剖析双渠道供应商差异化定价对整个商品销售渠道的影响机理。最后，建议研究传统商品销售渠道中被忽视而在互联网背景下地位发生变化的市场主体，进一步补充和完善互联网时代的商贸流通理论，以及抓住商贸流通领域的“白发老人”“宅男宅女”等群体的消费新特征，注重利用这些新的变化态势实现突破发展。

关键词：双渠道供应商；差异性定价；数值模拟；渠道效益参考文献：[1] 蔡津, 张正华. 基于博弈论的电子商务零售商与传统零售商的价格竞争模型 [J]. 上海理工大学学报 , 2001(1): 71- 74.[2] 陈云, 王浣尘, 沈惠璋. 电子商务零售商与传统零售商的价格竞争研究[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2006(1): 35- 41.[3] 陈云, 王浣尘, 沈惠璋. 互联网环境下双渠道零售商的定价策略研究[J]. 管理工程学报, 2008(1): 34- 39.[4] 王磊, 王世伟, 成克河. 供应商喜好风险的双渠道定价策略研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2012(S2): 575- 579.[5] 肖剑, 但斌, 张旭梅. 双渠道供应链电子渠道与零售商合作策略研究[J].系统工程学报, 2009(6): 673-679. [6] 但斌, 徐广业. 随机需求下双渠道供应链协调的收益共享契约[J]. 系统工程学报, 2013(4): 514- 521.[7] 申成然, 熊中楷, 晏伟. 网络比价行为下双渠道定价及协调策略研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2014(1): 84- 93.[8] R. Lal and M. Sarvary, When and how is the Internet likely to decrease price competition?[J]. Marketing Science, 1999, 18(4): 485-503. [9] E. Brynjolfsson and M.D. Smith, Frictionless commerce? A comparison of Internet and conventional retailers[J]. Management Science, 2000,46(4):563-585.[10] R. Friberg ， M. Ganslandt and M. Sandstrom, E-commerce and prices-theory and evidence[R]. Working paper series in economies and Finance, No 389，Stockholm Schol of Eeonomies，Sweden，2000.[11] Pan X, Shankar V, Ratchford B T. Price competition between pure play vs. bricks-and-clicks e-tailers: Analytical model and empirical analysis[C]//in Baye M R Eds. The Economics of the Internet and E-commerce (Advances in Applied Microeconomics, Volume 11), Emerald Group Publishing Limited,2002:29-61.

创业团队异质性与新企业绩效关系的路径研究：基于动态能力的视角

刘 刚 1，李超 2，吴彦俊 3

（1. 同济大学 经济与管理学院，上海 200092；2. 曼彻斯特大学 曼彻斯特商学院，曼彻斯特 M156PB；3. 泛华集团，北京 100070）

【摘要】创业团队异质性在较大程度上决定了技术创业的绩效表现，但已有研究对其中的作用路径没有深入研究。利用 256家新创技术企业的有效问卷数据，实证研究了创业团队异质性、动态能力与新创企业绩效之间的关系。结果表明：创业团队的社会性异质性（年龄和教育）和功能性异质性（产业经验和职能经验）与新创企业绩效显著正相关，而这种关系需要通过动态能力的中介作用实现。研究结论对技术创业绩效来源研究有重要的理论启示，对技术创业团队组建与管理也有重要的实践意义。

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生产运作过程质量危机预防与预警模型刘书庆 1，刘杰 1，刘佳 1，忽宏瑞 2

（1. 西安理工大学 经济与管理学院，西安 710054；2. 西安杨森制药有限公司，西安 710043）【摘要】针对企业产品质量危机事件日益频发问题，为有效预防与及时准确预警质量危机、削减产

品质量危机危害，在识别生产准备过程、生产过程、产品防护与交付过程 13 个质量危机预防与监控要素基础上，提出了生产运作过程质量危机预防与预警程序；从质量危机预防与监控要素视角，依据监控要素与预警指标的关联关系，提取出了 12 个生产运作过程质量危机预警指标，探究了质量危机预警指标的预警等级阈值；构建了基于改进型物元可拓法的质量危机预警模型，提出了 3 个过程及其整体质量危机预警方法，并结合某公司实际进行了应用研究，以期对其生产运作过程质量危机进行有效预防与预警。

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企业级专有软件应对开源软件的竞争策略刘莹，廖貅武

（西安交通大学 管理学院 过程控制与效率工程教育部重点实验室，西安 710049）【摘要】考虑企业级软件使用成本较高的特点和开源软件的威胁，对企业级软件市场上专有软件提

供商的竞争策略进行了研究。分析了专有软件与开源软件竞争的市场均衡，发现当开源软件质量较低时，专有软件提供商具备一定的开发效率就能垄断市场；当开源软件质量较高时，专有软件提供商需要提高开发效率以获得市场份额。随着开源软件质量的提高，它需要降低质量、降低价格来获取最优利润。 研究了专有软件提供商的最优质量策略，发现当用户使用软件成本较高时，专有软件提供商应采取高质量策略；当使用成本较低时，软件提供商开发效率高则采取高质量策略，效率低则采取低质量策略；当使用成本适中时，若专有软件提供商开发效率低且开源软件质量高，则专有软件提供商应采取低质量策略，否则采取高质量策略。最后，探讨了开源软件对消费者剩余的影响，发现质量较高的开源软件才会增加消费者剩余。

关键词：开源软件；专有软件；企业级软件；价格策略；质量策略参考文献：[1] Zhu K X, Zhou Z Z. Research note—lock-in strategy in software competition: Open-source software vs.

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基于谱映射的非线性 Sharpe 模型及其在基金投资风格识别中的应用

苏木亚 1,2，郭崇慧 3

（1.内蒙古大学 经济管理学院，呼和浩特 010021；2.中国科学院 数学与系统科学研究院，北京 100190；3.大连理工大学 管理与经济学部，大连 116024）

【摘要】由于金融时间序列往往具有非线性的特点，经典的 Sharpe 模型难以全面、准确地描述经济变量之间的关系。为此，提出了基于谱映射的非线性 Sharpe 模型。谱映射的核心思想来源于经典的谱图理论。谱映射借助由数据集导出的一些特殊矩阵的部分特征向量，将该数据集投影至高维空间。在投影后的高维空间，数据集的有些性质得到改进，如原空间中线性不可分的数据集在高维空间线性可分。基于谱映射的非线性 Sharpe 模型的主要步骤为，利用谱映射将基金收益率数据和风格指数收益率数据投影至高维空间，在高维空间利用经典 Sharpe 模型识别各基金的投资风格。利用基于谱映射的非线性Sharpe 模型分析了部分开放式基金的投资风格。实验结果表明，本文提出的基于谱映射的非线性Sharpe 模型的性能优于在原数据集上直接利用经典Sharpe 模型得到的结果。

关键词：谱映射；非线性 Sharpe 模型；基金投资风格；识别参考文献[1] Sharp W. Asset allocation: Management style and performance measurement[J]. Journal of Portfolio Management,

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不确定性环境下制造商双渠道策略的计算实验田晨，肖条军，石晶

（南京大学 工程管理学院，南京 210093）【摘要】基于 Multi-Agent思想和面向对象编程技术建立起计算实验模型，从消费者效用的角度，

研究双渠道供应链成员收益和渠道策略。在市场不确定性环境下，同时考虑库存和定价决策，通过多周期 Stackelberg博弈的计算实验，发现：消费者群体对商品价值评价的差异性会减弱直销渠道带来的影响，当差异性较小时制造商有动机选择双渠道策略，较大时倾向于单渠道；市场不确定因素影响较大时倾向于双渠道策略；单位生产成本不太大时倾向于双渠道策略，否则，倾向于单渠道。这些结论对现实情境中制造商制定双渠道策略具有一定的管理启示。

关键词：双渠道策略；消费者效用；不确定性；库存；计算实验参考文献：[1] Seong Y P, Hean T K. Modelling hybrid distribution channels: A game-theoretic analysis[J]. Journal Retailing and Consumer

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网络社群的凝聚力与活跃度提升研究：品牌与信任的角度万岩 1，范静 2，高锦萍 1，高丽 3

（1．北京邮电大学 经济管理学院，北京 100876；2. 北京外国语大学 国际商学院，北京 100089；3. 上海外国语大学 国际工商管理学院，上海 200083）

【摘要】 随着社交媒介的迅速发展，网络社群平台对组织和公众客户的重要性日益显著，网络社群的凝聚力和活跃度成为社群成功的重要标志。然而，对于为什么一些网络社群较另一些网络社群更为成功，这方面的理论研究却开展不多。考虑了群个体成员的认知特征与群整体的行为特征，探讨网络社群运营商（群平台）如何提升其凝聚力与活跃度。一方面，从网络社群中个体成员对平台认知的角度，采用实证研究方法，探究群平台的品牌感知、安全保护感知和隐私保护感知是如何通过影响群平台信任从而提升群活跃度和群凝聚力；另一方面，个体认知只是群体认知的基础，无法完全代表群体层次上的特征，从群平台整体行为特征的角度，采用实验研究方法，设计了两类群平台品牌、两类群安全保护措施以及两类群隐私保护措施共 3组实验，研究了 3 个不同变量环境下，群成员信任、群活跃度和群凝聚力的差异性。结果表明，网络社群平台的品牌感知、安全保护感知、隐私保护感知，可以直接影响用户对群平台信任，从而影响网络社群的凝聚力与活跃度。

关键词：群凝聚力；群活跃度；网络社群；品牌感知；隐私保护感知；安全感知

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CDO 再证券化的违约相关性与资产组合总体风险测度——基于 Copula 分析技术王宏 1，黄莹霄 2

（1. 南京审计大学 社会与经济研究院，南京 211815；2. 上海中汇亿达金融信息技术有限公司，上海 201203）

【摘要】通过考察 2 个非独立担保债务凭证进行再证券化生成的复杂资产组合，研究了该资产组合的违约相关性测度及其与资产组合总体风险的关系，组合间的相关性定义为总风险因素的 Kendall秩相关系数。通过构建 copula函数模型，并运用蒙特卡罗模拟技术对违约相关性与总体风险的关系进行仿真模拟。实验结果表明：当总风险的相关性增大时，投资组合内证券的预期违约比率会降低；同时，该实验也为 CDO 发行人如何确定股权级比例的下边界提供了参考。只有在该下边界以上，CDO 发行人才有可能盈利，并且投资者获得正收益。

关键词：违约相关性；Copula函数；担保债务凭证（CDO）；蒙特卡罗模拟参考文献：[1] Lucas D J. Default correlation and credit analysis[J]. Journal of Fixed Income, 1995, 4(4) :

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基于回购的风险分担协调契约设计王永龙，蹇明

（西南交通大学 交通运输与物流学院，成都 610031）【摘要】研究了由单供应商和多个竞争性零售商组成、供应商产出随机且生产投入量不受零售商控

制的二级供应链协调问题，决策变量为供应商的生产投入量和零售商的订购量。证明了整个供应链期望利润是生产投入量和订购量的凹函数，阐释了分散决策下的供应链存在双重边际化效应，并从风险分担的角度提出了能协调供应链的回购和成本风险分担契约。理论分析了该契约的协调条件，并在一定条件下，供应商和零售商的期望利润将获得帕累托改进。最后，通过数值算例验证了以上结论的正确性。 关键词：随机产出；协调；风险分担；回购参考文献：[1]Dellarocas C. Double marginalization in performance-based advertising: Implications and solutions[J]. Management Science,

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农村改水工程健康效应的实证研究：基于省际空间面板的计量分析韦庆明 1，林翰 2，蒋琬 3，马汉阳 4

（1. 河海大学 企业管理学院常州 213022；2. 南京审计大学 工程管理学院，南京 211815； 3. 天津大学 管理与经济学部，天津 300072；4.上海交通大学 安泰经济与管理学院，上海 200030）

  【摘要】基于 2003～2012年全国各省（市、自治区）面板数据，使用空间计量模型分析了农村改水工程和农村居民健康水平的关系，结果表明：在其他因素不变的条件下，农村改水工程的实施显著减少了当地农村居民氟斑牙和氟骨症的发病人数；并且这种健康效应具有正向的空间溢出特征，即本地农村居民健康水平的提高会间接地带来周边地区农村居民健康水平的提高。

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电子废弃物非正规回收查处政策及其效果谢天帅

（重庆邮电大学 经济管理学院，重庆 400065）【摘要】建立了包括政府、正规和非正规回收者在内的两阶段动态三方博弈模型来研究电子废弃物

非正规回收查处政策。研究表明，最优查处力度与回收者的技术经济水平、回收市场条件、用于查处支出的专项预算、政府的查处能力等因素有关，政府应根据这几方面的具体情况制定最优查处政策。研究也发现，查处政策具有双面作用：一方面，可以降低正规、非正规回收价格，减轻正规回收者与非正规回收者竞争的压力，从而使正规回收数量增加、正规回收率提高；另一方面，使非正规回收的减少量大于正规回收的增加量，从而使得总回收量减少，导致较多电子废弃物滞留在消费者手中，不利于循环经济的实现。因此，查处政策不宜单一执行，而应与其他政策配合使用。

关键词：电子废弃物；正规回收者；非正规回收者；查处政策；政策效果参考文献：[1] Hammond D, Beullens P. Closed-loop supply chain network equilibrium under legislation [J]. European Journal

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突发交通事故下城市道路交通网络的延误扩散临界研究姚红光，李智忠，林彦

（上海工程技术大学 航空运输学院，上海 201620）【摘要】延误扩散临界研究，可以为预防因突发交通事故造成的城市道路交通网络大

面积延误提供基础理论指导。应用平均场理论建立了道路交通网络中的延误扩散 SIS 模型，通过该模型在系统稳态时延误路段的稳态密度，得出了延误扩散临界值的解析表达式；并设计了仿真系统，在生成的“与道路交通网络拓扑结构具有相同统计特征的”虚拟网络上对延误扩散临界值进行了仿真检验，仿真结果与解析结果具有较高的吻合度。研究表明：城市道路交通中延误扩散的临界值与“道路交通网络中交通量、网络的平均度、交通流单位时间内流经路段的平均数、网络中交通流总量和重新选路概率”成反比；与网络路段数成正比。

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生产资金约束下供应商融资方式的选择策略占济舟 1，2，舒友国 3

（1. 南京审计大学 管理科学与工程学院，南京 211815；2. 复旦大学 管理学院，上海 200433；3. 南京大学 工程管理学院，南京 210094）

【摘要】 在由单一供应商和单一零售商构成的二级供应链中，当供应商生产资金受到约束时，建立了零售商提前支付和银行应收账款两种融资方式下，零售商的预订决策和供应商的生产决策模型，并分别从供应链成员和供应链系统利润最大化的角度，探讨了供应商融资方式的选择策略。算例分析的研究结果表明：从供应商和供应链系统利润最大化出发，当银行贷款利率较低时，应收账款融资更占优势；随着贷款利率的增大，零售商提前支付更具有优势，且提前支付可为零售商创造更多的融资价值。

关键词：供应链；资金约束；提前支付；应收账款；融资参考文献：[1] Gupta D, Wang L. A stochastic inventory model with trade credit [J]. Manufacturing &

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retailer under delay in payments [J]. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 2013, 66: 758-767.

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或有可转换债券和管理者薪酬设计赵志明 1，杨招军 2，罗鹏飞 3

（1.湘潭大学 商学院，湖南 湘潭 411105；2.南方科技大学 金融系，广东 深圳 518055；3.湖南大学 金融与统计学院，长沙 410079）

【摘要】假定公司资本结构包含普通债、或有可转换债券（CoCo）和股权，所有证券的收益来自终止时刻的一次性支付，管理者薪酬由固定工资和或有奖金组成。应用Girsanov 定理构造等价鞅测度，获得证券价格的显式解。分析表明：发行 CoCo 可以显著降低公司破产概率，减少普通债的风险；与经典的固定工资加股权薪酬结构相比，本文设计的薪酬方案更能够有效促使管理者控制风险，注重企业长期发展。

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基于农户知识行为的农业技术扩散系统模型构建与仿真周荣 1,2，喻登科 2，涂国平 2

（1 江西科技师范大学 经济管理学院，南昌 330031；2 南昌大学 管理学院管理科学与工程系，南昌 330031）

【摘要】在分析农业技术扩散系统仿真基本原理和仿真模型构建思路的基础上，提出模型构建和仿真分析的主要步骤。进而确定系统变量，设计相关方程，确定仿真参数，进行仿真测试。仿真测试结果表明，模型符合逻辑预期，也对各参数具有一定的敏感性，具有一定程度的科学性和适用性。采用 Matlab软件编程计算，进行农户知识行为（知识对接行为、知识共享行为和知识创新行为）、公司行为（技术推广行为、共享激励行为、协同创新行为）以及社会网络和社会心理等因素对农业技术扩散效果的作用机制的仿真分析结果表明，上述因素会对农业技术扩散带来不同程度的影响，要促进农业技术扩散，需要围绕相关因素及其作用机制提出针对性政策建议。关键词：农业技术扩散；农户知识行为；系统模型；建模；仿真参考文献[]龙冬平,李同昇,于正松.农业技术扩散中的农户采用行为研究:国外进展与国内趋势[J].地域研究与开发, 2014 (5):132-139.

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属性强度函数已知下的煤炭资源采矿权案例估价模型邹绍辉 1,2，张甜 1，张金锁 2

（1. 西安科技大学 管理学院，西安　710054；2. 西安科技大学 能源经济与管理研究中心，西安　710054）

【摘要】科学合理地对煤炭资源采矿权进行估价是最优配置煤炭资源的关键所在。随着煤炭资源采矿权交易市场的快速发展，案例估价方法将在煤炭资源采矿权估价中变得越来越重要。目前，国内外研究仍然没有建立起合适的案例选取准则和相似度模型。运用案例推理和现代统计学等理论和方法，对属性指标、属性强度函数、标的采矿权、案例采矿权以及案例相似度等关键概念进行了界定；建立了属性强度函数已知情形下的煤炭资源采矿权案例选取准则、案例相似度模型、估价模型和估价流程。通过一煤炭资源采矿权实例对该模型进行了运用研究。研究结果表明：运用煤炭资源采矿权案例估价方法估价出的结果非常接近该采矿权的最后交易价格；在存在一定数量的可比较采矿权案例前提下，案例估价方法较其他方法所需数据较少，也更为高效和直接。

关键词：煤炭资源；采矿权；案例推理；属性强度函数；案例相似度参考文献[1] 邹绍辉， 张金锁. 煤炭资源开发税费政策改革方向研究[J]. 中国矿业，2009，18(144):17-21.[2] 邹绍辉. 基于期权的煤炭资源采矿权估价方法研究[D]. 西安：西安科技大学，2009.[3] Kendal S, Creen M. An introduction to knowledge engineering[M]. Springer, 2007.[4] Liao S H. Expert system methodologies and applications-A decade review from 1995 to 2004[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2005, 28, 93-103.[5] Ahn H, Kim K J, Han I. Global optimization of feature weights and the number of neighbors that combine in a case-based reasoning system[J]. Expert Syst., 2006, 23(5): 290-301.[6] 邹绍辉, 张金锁. 我国煤炭价格变动模型实证研究[J]. 煤炭学报, 2010, 35(3):525-528.[7] Juell P, Paulson P. Case-based systems[J]. IEEE Intel. Syst. Applic., 2003, 18(4):60-67[8] Hüllermeier E. Case-based approximate reasoning[M]. Springer, 2007.[9] Kaoru Hirota, Hajime Yoshino, Xu MingQiang, et al. An application of fuzzy theory to the case-based reasoning of the CISG[J]. Journal of Advanced Computational Intelligence,1997,1(2): 86-93[10] 周艳春, 李向阳. 基于差异关系案例推理的关系价值度量研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2010, 19(3):70-74.[11] 郭强, 郭耀煌, 郭春香. 基于模糊相似度的群决策方案排序[J].西南交通大学学报, 2010, 45(2):307-311.[12] Gu Lichcuan, Guo Qingyan, Cao Mengru, et al. Case retrieval algorithm based on structure matrix[J]. Journal of Multimedia. 2013, 8 (6):712-720.[13] 朱佳俊, 郑建国, 覃朝勇. 基于证据理论的不确定可拓推理及应用.系统管理学报, 2013, 22(6):876-881[14] 张协奎, 陈伟清, 成文山, 等. 基于模糊数学的市场比较法研究[J] . 中国管理科学, 2001, 9( 3) : 37-42.[15] 周春喜. 基于模糊数学的房地产市场法价格评估[J]. 中国资产评估, 2004 (5):25-29.[16] 张金锁. 矿物资源资产案例估价方法研究[J]. 西安科技学院学报, 2002, 22(4):476-480.

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