Download - 能源發展綱領政策環境影響評估 暨能源供給效率規劃 NGO 溝通說明會
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NGO97102997
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IEA(2007)203084203068WRI(2007)2025GHG Global distribution of large stationary sources of CO2() IEA(2007)World Energy Outlook
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()BP(2007) statistical review of world energy 1.2.
(2006)
12,082
181
9,091
(2006)
298
2.9
62.0
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63
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2006()200720082009COP 12 COP 13COP 14 COP 15G8 G8 (AWG-KP)3.9 (Bali Action Plan)AWG-LCA(2008) 13( Bali Action Plan)20092012 83200915G8205050% 2008.0320082009 20082008.061. 2.()3.2008.081.(REDD)(Sectoral Approach) 2.
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99.2% 8.65%2007147.2491.6 % ()147.24(2008), 96
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2007243, 180()40.1%20060.637CO2e/
()20051CO2e/21.IEA(2007), CO2 emissions from fuel combustion Highlights 1971-2005(2007 Edition) 2.(2008), 97,27.9%11.3% ()11.4%10.0%39.0%20072007 ()5.01%18.4%16.7%6.2%53.6%243,1804,572.0(2008), 96
0.4290.4180.5760.0870.841
20050.63220060.63820070.637
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1990CO211,050200626,527200616,40961.86%5,26819.86%3,71314%2250.85%5221.97%20052216CO2(2007)()()- IEA(2007), CO2 Emission from Fuel Combustion Highlights 1971-2005.
1.GDP
billion 2000$
355.53
16
2.CO2
Mtoe
261.28
22
3.CO2
t CO2/ capita
11.41
16
4.GDP CO2
kg CO2/ 2000$
0.73
73
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201532016202020082025200040%202555%82201520%202550%Cool !(Cool)
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()
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20258%202525%()
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202530% 201525%()
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20157%(Carbon Neutral) 201110%~70%201520~90%() ()
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()4 50 100
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() 20162020200820252000() () (NGO
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(Policy)(Plan)(97)630959707
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1.2.3.()
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E
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96 94 94() (6/157/24)NGO(8/16)(8/229/5) (10/1812/13)859495()
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1.201532006~20254.27%2006~20154. 79% 2016~20253.74%2016 ( (2008) TaiSEND)
201529()
TaiSEND()20052006~20152016~20252006~20254.164.793.744.27
TaiSENDGDP(/)200520152025522,306852,1571,285,955
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2.20162020200820252000
-40%202555%-822015200520%202550%133(Kg-CO2)(toe)(Kg-CO2/toe)
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(1) -a.
(42.3)
IGCCCCS()
2020IGCC+CCS(20201GW20253 GW)
LNG
20101,05020201,60020252,000
20103,920MW20154,972 MW20206,711MW20258,450MW
2009
~
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(BREF)(BREF) 5
b.
(%)
(Electrical efficiency)
LHVnet
()
36-40
32-35
38-45
-
>38
>35
/ (HRSG)
54-58
50-54
(HRSG)
-
1. 2.3.5. 1. 2.3.4.1.2.3.4.1.2.3. 4.
1. 2.(Carbon Neutral)
1.2.
50%201020052020201520254.69.27.16.65.8(LOE/) (base)()2%(2) -U,
-
() 1.4.8%12.0%
15.6%
37.3%
30.3 %10,5490.4 %8.5 %8.0 %
51.2%
31.9%
12,78913,3326.8%6.8%
22.3%
43.1%
21.0%13,61812,0946.5%10.0%19.8%
39.6%
24.1%1.(2008)96 2.(2008) Markal05 %10.6 %6.7 %
50.8%
31.4 %
Chart3
331153597121112.843.5
4354697210851154.648.7
3876476419951536616
2920479523941209772
280157442975901910
201520152015
2005
$4,356$5,547$5,436$5,017
$6,929$6,161$6,161$5,242
$1,085$2,265$2,265$2,408
$1,158$1,434$1,434$1,434
$75$711$711$711
2025202520252025
20002005201520202025
33114354$3,876$2,920$2,801
53596972$4,764$4,795$5,744
7121085$1,995$2,394$2,975
1112.81154.6$1,536$1,209$901
43.548.7$616$772$910
$13,614
Sheet3
2005201520252015202520152025
$1,726$2,522$3,661$2,432$2,673$2,106$1,876
$483$438$161$438$142$376$96
$1,110$1,716$2,101$1,716$2,101$1,716$1,716
$514$784$365$784$365$784$365
$260$260$360$260$360$260$360
259600800600800600$800
Sheet3
000000
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2. ()200043.2%201553.1%202553.8%1.(2008)96 2.(2008) Markal
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(Life Cycle Thinking)FAHPLCA()1. (96.06.1596.07.24)2.4. (97.10.22)
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()()() 1. 2. 3.
()
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LCA(Gate to gate)CO2
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( 2,4,Dsoil)(2,4,Dwater)(eq SO2)(eq Bezeneair )eq Toulene200073.70.1516.91.644642005104.50.2723.22.2569201573.50.3918.81.4415202586.70.5220.61.4525
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()()200560196259()25.640.937.555.22025159.220152025(GNEP ) (2008)
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200526.14%201528.75%25.37% (2008) TaiSEND
2000
2.56
31.31
66.13
2005
2.24
26.14
71.62
2015
2.12
28.75
69.13
2020
2.01
27.62
70.37
2025
1.91
25.37
72.72
(%)
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200599.1%86.4%202553.8%40%202555%2025()19.9%15%(8%)
(%)
(/)
(/)
(%)
()(%)
2000
98.7
60.9
108.6
4,195
43.2
14.0
2005
99.1
61.4
104.8
4,974
40.1
12.0
2015
83.2
52.1
155.2
5,515
52.2
13.2
2025
86.4
53.7
220.1
5,749
53.8
19.9
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()()(FAHP)()FAHP(SAW)AHP FAHP
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FAHP1. 2.
3. 4.
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5%20154%