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The 21st Century Shrink
Program:
Analytics, Reporting and the
High-Response Protocol
Collaborating with Retailers toCreate World-Class Execution
Retail the way we see it
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1. The Opportunity 3
2. Profit Recovery Program Evolution 5
3. The Analytics 6
3.1 Data Collection & Validation 6
3.2 Correlation Analysis 6
3.3 Regression Analysis 7
3.4 Critical Success Factors 8
4. The Scorecard 9
4.1 Exception Reports 9
4.2 Why Scorecards? 9
4.3 Development 9
4.4 Implementation 10
4.5 Critical Success Factors 11
5. The High-Response Protocol 12
5.1 Design 12
5.2 Execution 12
5.3 Critical Success Factors 13
6. Why Do I Need to Change? 14
6.1 Profit Recovery ROI 14
6.2 21st Century Retail Operating Environment 15
7. Our Approach 16
About Capgemini 18
Appendix 19
Endnotes 19
Acronyms 19
Table of Contents
Prepared by:
Capgemini U.S. LLC
Date:
June 2008
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Retail the way we see it
includes not only inventory loss butalso controllable losses in cost, price
and recoverable merchandise. AtCapgemini we refer to this opportunityas profit recovery (see figure 1).
Capgemini has routinely identified50-100 basis points of profit recoveryas a result of analytics and reportingprograms and returned 12-15 timesof implementation investment innumerous retail environmentsincluding grocery, chain drug, massand specialty. Capgemini has saved
retailers more than $5 million forevery $1 billion in sales per year.Even more telling, our experienceshows that, on average, properlyimplemented profit recovery reportingprojects have returned 10-20% ofthese savings within the first year.
How do we do it? We work togetherin putting the pieces of the puzzletogether so we can see the wholepicture. A three-pronged approach isemployed:
1.Data analytics
2.Robust reporting platform
3.Targeted, high-response action plan(Figure 2)
What if you could wade through thevast amount of collected retail data to
determine truly actionable elements?What if you could get your organizationfocused on the true indicators ofshrink? What if you could respond toalarming trends as they are occurring?
With a properly implemented shrinkanalytics and reporting program, thesescenarios have become reality formany retailers.
Sifting through all the data collectedat the average retailer, trying to pick
out relevant information is similar toputting together a jigsaw puzzle withan ever-growing number of pieces.This is especially true when searchingfor gross profit recovery opportunities.Most retail store operators are notcued in to store and enterprise widechallenges until months after theyhave occurred. Many retailers onlymeasure shrink on a quarterly oreven yearly basis as part of a physicalinventory. By the time the shrinknumbers have been reported, monthsof loss have already been carried outthe company doors.
Retailers do not all measure shrinkconsistently. For this reason, the onlyway to truly measure loss is to look attotal gross profit leakage which
The 21st Century Shrink Program:Analytics, Reporting and the High-Response Protocol 3
1. The Opportunity
Capgemini has saved
retailers more than
$5 million for every
$1 billion in sales per
year as a result of
properly implemented
profit recovery reporting
programs
Figure 1: Profit Recovery: The True Measure of Company Loss
Other Lost Gross ProfitShrink
Inventory Loss (Store Reported) Physical Inventory (Adjustment) Damage Return / Customer Service Donation Close-out Shipping Error
Warehouse Loss / Swell Void Loss
$
$$$Profit Recovery
$$
Cash Over / Short Check Loss Credit / Debit Card Loss Price Change / Exit Strategy Employee Purchase Discount RTV / Vendor Credit Loss A/P-A/R Losses
Coupon Abuse Other Store Discounting
Source: Capgemini
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The first piece of the puzzle is todetermine the retailers true indicatorsof gross profit loss. With as muchdata that is possibly available, the datais merged together into an integrateddatabase. Correlations are run witheach data element against eachstores shrink numbers. With yearsof experience on hand, the data ismined in innovative ways to find truerelationships. The effect that multipleindicators can exert when appliedsimultaneously is analyzed and
conclusions are developed. The endgoal is to mirror the retailers actualoperating environment - wheremultiple factors work togetherincrease profit loss.
The second piece of the puzzle is touse the output of the analysis to create
a resource allocation tool. Everycompany strives to do more with less.To facilitate this goal, the strongestindicators of profit loss is determinedbased on statistical analysis.Exception reports are developedwhich give quick views into greatestprofit recovery opportunities and alertretailers to performance challenginglocations. (These reports can typicallybe set up in a short amount of timeand require little technology to
support.) The exception reportsthen feed a series of one-page shrinkscorecards. These scorecardshighlight predefined metrics whichcue in decision-makers toextraordinary trends occurring atparticular locations. Shrink is mostclearly visible at the operations levelof the business, however, ourexperiences indicate there are rootcauses in all business areas (seefigure 3 for our view of a successfulprofit recovery program). Therefore,scorecards are developed for alldepartments, with clear emphasison: store and regional operations, lossprevention, corporate and fieldmerchandising, other supply chainactivities and vendors.
The final piece of the puzzle is highresponse protocol as profit recoverycan only be induced as a result ofdirect action. Data and tools bythemselves do not reduce profit loss.
Capgemini layers industry-leadingpractice on top of own experiencesand direct observations to create anaction plan that allows the organizationto take the appropriate steps at theright time. The action plan is tailoredto key profit loss drivers for particularretailers and compiled into an easy toreference format so that expectationsand predictable response methods canbe clearly established.
With the puzzle solved, the retailerwill be able to effectively increaseprofit recovery and save tens ofmillions of dollars in the process.
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Figure 2: Future State Shrink Reporting Program
e e 1 6 (T ra i l i m o t h s r i t o t a l s e c e p t e i r o m e t a l r i s - a s s e s s e a a l l s e l f - a i t - b i a a l l ) tore core 8.81 toreistrictank
K $ % G oa l S co re R a nk V al ue G o al S c or e R an k V al ue G o al S c or e Ra nkCurrQtrF/EShrink 70.00 3.70 2.50 0.17 10 Non- Aut hRetur ns 0. 05 - 0.12 7 V oi ds 2 .8 7 2.00 0.24 14Cur r Qt r RX S hr ink 23. 00 1.08 0.50 0.24 14 Dam age Ret urns 0. 15 0.10 0.17 10 R ef un ds 1 .9 8 1.00 0.36 21Cur r Qt r S hrink 93. 0 3.26 2.00 0.25 15 S hopl i f t ing Los s 0. 10 0.10 0.19 11 D i sc o un t s 1 . 12 1.00 0.22 13T 4 Q S h ri n k 3 7 2. 0 2.89 2.00 0.22 13 Non- Ret ur nLos s 0. 05 0.05 0.08 5 Rain Chec ks 0. 70 1.00 0.07 4V a ri a nc e ( 2 3. 0 0) (0.37) 0.20 0.29 17 T o ta l R e tu r ns 0 . 30 0.25 0.15 9 T o ta l SR A 6 . 67 5.00 0.32 19
K $ % V a ri an ce S co re R a nk V al ue G o al S c or e R an k V al ue G o al S c or e Ra nkF /E S a le s 1 ,8 92 47% 4. 86% 0. 07 4 C ur re nt 9 4. 00 98.00 0.17 10 C u rr e nt 9 7 .2 0 98.00 0.05 3R XS al es 2 ,1 30 53% 1. 41% 0. 10 6 P re vi ou s 9 3. 20 98.00 0.20 12 P r ev i ou s 9 5 .0 0 98.00 0.14 8T o ta l S al e s 4 , 02 2 100% 3. 03% 0. 07 4 V ar ia nc e 0 .8 0 - 0.10 6 V a ri a nc e 2 . 20 - 0.02 1
K $ # D ay s G o al S co re R an k V al ue G o a l S co re R a n k V al ue G o al S co re R a n kS a le s fl o or 3 6 8. 6 33.00 30.00 0.25 15 Out-of-stock % sales 0.50 0.50 0.10 6 C u st o me r 3 , 77 0 3,700 0.10 6Increase/(Reduction) 29.0 2.60 - 0.32 19 S ca n Ra te 9 8. 00 98.00 0.12 7 PrevQtr 3,890 3,700 0.07 4B ac k Ro om 8 9. 4 8.00 5.00 0.31 18 LP Cases 2 - 0.07 4 V a ri a nc e ( 1 20 ) - 0.14 8Increase/(Reduction) 8.9 0.80 - 0.24 14 S cr ip t 7 00 0.12 7RX 189.9 17.00 10.00 0.24 14 P re v Qt r 7 00 0.12 7Increase/(Reduction) 4.5 0.40 - 0.20 12 V ar ia nc e - - 0.14 8To ta l 6 47 .9 58.00 45.00 0.32 19 K $ G o al S c or e R a n kIncrease/(Reduction) 42.4 3.80 - 0.36 21 V ar ia nc e 1 2. 00 - 0.31 18
$ % G oa l S co re R a nk V al ue G o al S c or e R an k V al ue G o al S c or e R an kRegular Non-RX 519 12.90 12.70 0.12 7 P ar t- ti me 6 8. 00 60.00 0.03 2 W e ek l y Av g 9 . 10 9.00 0.05 3R eg ul ar RX 5 63 14.00 14.00 0.14 8 PrevQtr 67.00 60.00 0.07 4 P r ev Week A v g 8. 80 9.00 0.08 5O ve rt im e 2 01 5.00 3.00 0.17 10 V ar ia nc e 1 .0 0 - 0.07 4 V a ri a nc e 0 . 30 - 0.03 2D ou bl e Ti me - - - 0.02 1 F ul l- ti me 3 2. 00 40.00 0.03 2 Q t r -t o- dat e 8. 70 9.00 0.08 5
PrevQtr 33.00 40.00 0.07 4 PrevQtr-to-date 8.50 9.00 0.14 8V ar ia nc e ( 1. 00 ) - 0.07 4 V a ri a nc e 0 . 20 - 0.05 3
V alueS c or eRankR is k ra ti ng 9 .2 0 0.08 5
Store Shrink & Profit RecoveryScorecard Example
Shrink
Sales
K n o w n L o ss ( % o f s a les ) S a le s R e d u c in g Ac t iv ity ( % of s ale s )
S el f- Au d it S co re s D M Au di t Sc or es
Environment
MoneyOrder/MoneyGram
HoursScheduled
CountsI nv en to ry Da ys O th er Sh ri n k I nd i ca to rs
Wages (% of total w ages) Customer Service Scores
Shrink Indicators
0.32
0.32
0.31
0.27
0.25
0.23
0.23
0.21
0.20
0.0 0 0.0 5 0. 10 0. 15 0 .20 0. 25 0 .3 0 0 .3 5
Inventory
Returns -Damage, Plano, etc.
Sales ReducingActivity
C ashSal es
CashRefunds
Demographic Risk Enhancers
UnderperformingStores
#Year s Stor eH as BeenOpen
Markdowns
Correlation to Shrink
R2 = 50%
0.0075
0.0150
0.0225
0.0300
0.0375
0.0450
-0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05
Trailing 4-QTR Shrink
FittedValues
Correlation &
Regression Analysis
Scorecards
High-Response
Protocol What do you do when a
store begins showingalarming trends? Excess coupon use? Excess inventory? Etc.?
Add
Leading
Practices
Shrink
ReductionShrink
Database
External Data Demographics
Outside auditscores
Industry trends
Internal Data Inventory Returns POS data
Exception Reports
Source: Capgemini
Figure 3: The Capgemini Profit Recovery Program Wheel
Supply Chain &
Merchandising
LP, Accounting
& HR
Store
Operations &
DSD
POS &
Transaction
Monitoring
Minimized
Gross Profit
Leakage
Analytics &
Reporting
Source: Capgemini
Our experiences indicate
that there are root causes
in all business areas.
Therefore, scorecards are
developed for all
departments, with clear
emphasis on: store and
regional operations, loss
prevention, corporate and
field merchandising, other
supply chain activities andvendors.
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Retail the way we see it
The 21st Century Shrink Program:Analytics, Reporting and the High-Response Protocol 5
Clear, consistent roles andresponsibilities must be assigned
when it comes to shrink and profitrecovery.
The transition to a holistic view ofprofit recovery takes time. Profit lossis everywhere and touches everydepartment. As such, it is essential tobring cross-functional teams togetherto address the issue and to raiseawareness and visibility of the trueglobal nature of profit loss.
Finally, as the company movesalong the continuum toward a moreprofitable organization, the toolsetmay need to be adjusted as well. AsCapgemini has experienced, exceptionreports initially crafted in Excel cangive quick visibility to poorperformance until enterprise-wide,balanced scorecards are implemented.For example, Capgemini helped a500 store chain drug retailer take100 basis points of shrink out of itsoperation through basic analysis,exception reporting in Excel andfocused action.
The path toward a 21st century profitrecovery analytics and reporting
organization is an evolution. Manysteps are needed to bring about thefull transformation and it is necessaryto set the stage that will take retailersfrom current to leading state.
The goal is to transform the organizationfrom reactive to proactive (Figure 4).This transformation has broadorganizational impact though. Sofirst, the retailer needs to objectivelyassess whether its organization is
ready for such a change and, if it isnot, determine what it will take toget ready. The programs currentlyin place and the readiness of theorganization to accept a new way ofthinking will greatly influence thespeed and impact of any transformation.
The key components of any actionplan are specific accountability,organizational alignment, andappropriate incentives. For instance,it is easy to determine that lossprevention owns shoplifting, but whoowns excess inventory? Typically, theresponsibility for excess inventory isshared or negotiated, even though itaffects operations, merchandising andloss prevention in profound ways.
2. Profit Recovery Program Evolution
Profit loss is everywhere
and touches every
department. Lossprevention is not solely
responsible for loss. As
such, it is essential to
bring cross-functional
teams together to address
the issue and to raise
awareness and visibility of
the true global nature of
profit loss.
Figure 4: Shrink Analytics and Reporting Program Evolution
Basic Analysis
Basic Dashboard
Exception Reporting
Reactive Response
Reactive Proactive
Action
Toolset
More Advanced Analysis
High-Focus Scorecard
Exception Reporting
Robust Analysis
Balanced Scorecarding
Exception Reporting
Proactive Response
Predictive Analysis
Data Warehouse
MS Excel / Access
Siloed Databases
Business Intelligence
Canned Analytics
Integrated Databases
Time to Implement
Source: Capgemini
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To solve the profit loss puzzle, retailersmust first understand its true causes.
A series of data collection andstatistical analysis techniques areemployed that mine vast amounts ofdata and discover pointed, action-oriented information. Based onperformance characteristics, the analysistells retailers which stores are performingwell versus others that remain achallenge in relation to profit loss.
For many retailers, shrink is reallyonly uncovered when a physical
inventory is taken. The only way tobecome more proactive is to identifythe drivers of profit loss and focus onthose indicators that are moreimmediately known and frequentlyreported. By creating controls basedon the leading conditions andbehaviors identified in the analysis,quick value can be attained.
3.1 Data Collection & ValidationThe first step is data collection. Sincespeed-to-value is always one of ourmain concerns at Capgemini, we askretailers for a data request wish list inadvance. An integrated database isbuilt with the information that is mostoften received from a myriad ofrepositories. Typically, two parallelwork streams with the integrateddatabase are maintained. We takeone-time, static data extracts while,at the same time, preparing the ITorganization to provide automateddata feeds for on-going analysis support.
Capgemini will analyze the data andin collaboration ask questions such as:
n Does the data make sense given ourexperience in the industry?
nWhat were the collectionmechanisms? Are they accurate andconsistent?
n Can the data integrity be trusted?
All data is validated. Only dataelements that are directionallyaccurate and representative of theretailers business proceed forward.For example, data that contained amisplaced decimal point and data
from a store that was located rightnext to corporate headquarters might
both be removed. Either couldmisconstrue an accurate picture of theretailers true operating environment.
The goal is to build a like-storesample set. The aim is to include atleast 50% of the companys stores andcompare only like variables withinthose stores. For example, wecompare only stores open in the sametimeframe (trailing four quarters isgenerally preferable). Additionally we:
n Ensure that the data contains arepresentative cross-section of stores
n Remove any outlier variables orvariables that contain extraordinaryevents that would skew the results
n Exclude irrelevant variables
n Control for seasonality
n Control the data set for any bias inthe data collection or receipt process
3.2 Correlation Analysis
Once the sample set has been createdand store-level shrink numbersreceived, the potential indicators ofshrink are correlated to the storesactual shrink number.
To gain the best insight into the data,a number of data manipulations areperformed. For example, we will lagsome variables one time period. Wehave found, for instance, that somedata, like employee turnover, contributesto profit loss in future periods.
Capgemini will check for whatstatisticians refer to as multicollinearity.Sounding complex but simply put,this means that a particular variablemay not, by itself, be an indicator ormitigator of profit loss even thoughthe analysis shows a high correlation.For example, security guard expensemay show up as a high correlation.In reality though, security guardexpense is highly correlated to crime
in the surrounding area. Crime is thetrue indicator of profit loss notsecurity guard expense.
6
3. The Analytics
Based on performance
characteristics, the
analysis tells retailerswhich stores are
performing well versus
others that remain a
challenge in relation to
profit loss.
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Retail the way we see it
means that the model can explain at
least 50% of the cause of store loss).An adjusted R2 of .5 translates into acorrelation greater than .7 which isrepresentative of a reasonableexplanation of store loss (Figure 7).
As the regression analysis proceeds,we continue to check all variables forreasonableness and validate againstexperience and direct observation.
By combining the variables discoveredin the regression analysis with the
highest single-variable correlationelements, the retailer will have anaccurate depiction of the true driversof profit loss.
We use statistical software to quickly
analyze the interrelationship amongall variables collected. This becomesa highly iterative process as relevantvariables are included/excluded tofind the best fit for explaining storeloss.
Model correctness is typically displayedas the square of the correlation value(or R2). We use a slightly differentmetric adjusted R2. A models R2can be inflated by simply adding morevariables to the model, thus skewing
the models information content.Adjusted R2 controls for this fact. Asa result, we do not consider the modelreasonable until we have achieved anadjusted R2 of at least .5 (which
Academia will often state that youdo not begin to see even a weak
correlation until you receive a magnitudeof .3 and a strong correlation doesntexist until .7. Capgemini will workwith retailers to interpret the magnitudeof the correlations. The reality is thatthe correlations found in the businessworld are far weaker. There are twogeneral reasons for this:
1.Profit loss is rarely caused by onesingle factor it is far morecommon that multiple drivers worktogether to bring about store loss
2.Data collection at most retailers isan imprecise process themeasurement process at most retailstore operations contains a lot oferror and noise.
Because of these two issues, thecorrelation order becomes moreimportant than the actual number.
Both profit loss indicators andmitigating factors are analyzed in
order to give an accurate picture ofwhat drove the entire shrink number(Figures 5 and 6).
Finally, all analysis is accompanied bya reasonableness check. Correlationsare compared against direct observation,industry experience and commonsense to make sure that we as a teamare making accurate inferences fromthe data.
3.3 Regression AnalysisOnce the correlation analysis iscomplete, Capgemini will then layeradditional complexity and realismonto the profit loss picture. A modelis built that looks at multiple variablesat the same time. Questions areanswered such as: what is the effecton profit loss when inventory increasesby 5% and the percentage of part-timelabor increases by 5% and the storemanager changes to a different store?Because this analysis looks at multiple
variables simultaneously, it eliminatesone of the chief shortcomings of thesingle variable analysis.
The 21st Century Shrink Program:Analytics, Reporting and the High-Response Protocol 7
Figure 5: Sample Correlation Analysis Indicating Factors
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35
Shrink Indicators
Correlation to Shrink
0.32High Inventory
Cash Sales
Cash Refunds
Returns (Damage, Plano Change, etc.)
# Years Store has been open
# of Markdowns
Sales Reducing Activity (Coupons,Discounts, etc.)
Demographics Low Socioeconomic
Conditions
Underperforming Stores (Sales &Gross Profit)
0.32
0.31
0.27
0.25
0.21
0.20
0.23
0.23
Source: Capgemini
Figure 6: Sample Correlation Analysis Mitigating Factors
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30
Shrink Mitigators
Negative Correlation to Shrink
Demographics High Socioeconomic
Conditions
Sales per Total Sqft.
Credit Card Sales
Check Sales
0.27
0.27
0.19
0.21
Source: Capgemini
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due to the imprecision of the datacollection and the fact that pastperformance is not always indicativeof future performance
8
3.4 Critical Success Factorsn Full client participation during the
statistical analysis statistics can beeasily manipulated and, as a result,there can be a lot of debate
regarding their validitynAssigning a respected company
member to accompany theCapgemini analyst - view theanalysis first-hand and make astatement to its validity is anessential step
n Full IT and business support responsiveness to and completenessof the data request is essential
n Data availability the faster theclient can provide the data to
Capgemini and the moreencompassing the variety of data,the better the results of the analysis
nAutomating the data feeds IT willwant to collect the initial round ofdata with this in mind; this greatlyspeeds up implementation of thereporting platform
n Recognition that the correlationorder is much more important thanthe actual correlation number thisis a critical step to begin trusting the
wisdom of the analysisn Understand the directional nature of
the regression model this is notmeant to be a precise scientific tool,a margin of error is involved; this is
Figure 7: Sample Regression Output
0.0075
-0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05
R2 = 50%
Trailing 4-QTR Shrink
FiltedV
alues
0.0150
0.0225
0.0300
0.0375
0.0450
Source: Capgemini
Capgemini does not
consider the model
reasonable until we haveachieved an adjusted R2 of
at least .5an adjusted R2
of .5 translates into a
correlation greater than .7
which is representative of
a reasonable explanation
of store shrink.
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Retail the way we see it
performance data (e.g., sales, grossprofit, overtime percentage). The
goal is that each store manager willuse his/her one-page store operationsscorecard as the basis forcommunication and performanceevaluation.
Profit loss is not limited to the store,however. Merchandising and buyerscorecards are created in conjunctionwith store-based cards. It is realizedthat employees will want to seedifferent views of the data based on
area of responsibility. So typicallystore-level, district-level and region-level scorecards are created, reducingthe level of detail as the view levelgoes higher. For example, a region-level card may have only the 5-7 mostcritical key performance indicators(KPIs), while the store-level card mayhave 20-25 KPIs.
The most important rule of scorecarddevelopment is that the scorecardmust be simple to interpret. Theentire focus of the analytics andreporting program is to equip theretailer with pointed, relevant, action-oriented information. We buildscorecards that are easy to read andthat highlight out-of-tolerance KPIs,allowing the managers eye toimmediately jump to his or her areasof concern (Figure 8).
The variables included on thescorecard are driven by the correlation
and regression analysis along with anyother key performance-related variables.Great care should be taken to ensurethat only the truly important elementsare included. Trouble can often occurwhen a retailer tries to include toomany variables. Ease of interpretationmust always be the goal.
Another key to scorecard developmentis to include all important stakeholdersin the scorecard creation process, but
avoid the temptation to makedevelopment a consensus decision.Driving for consensus only extendsthe implementation timeline and theincremental benefit is often not worth
Now that the drivers of profit losshave been discovered, the next step
is to determine how best to attack theproblem and infuse this newlydetermined information into theorganization. Scorecards serve as avaluable tool in this process. Theyallow managers to deploy limitedresources in an optimal manner to thegreatest profit recovery opportunitiesallowing the retailer to see the greatestreturn on initial time invested.
4.1 Exception Reports
Before beginning a scorecard discussion,it is necessary to talk briefly about areporting tool that typically precedesthe scorecard. Simple, often Excel-based, exception reports provide amethod to quickly add value.Constructed with just the criticaldrivers of loss, they provide decision-makers with a quick way to identifyperformance challenging locations andto begin taking action. They can alsobe used as a tool to raise profit lossawareness and start the organizationon a path to thinking differently aboutprofit loss. These reports are usuallydiscontinued when scorecards areimplemented company-wide.
4.2 Why Scorecards?The term scorecard is often confusedwith dashboard or workbench.Capgemini defines scorecard as amechanism for quantifying storeperformance against a preset target or
goal, determined by management.Dashboards and workbenches typically
just report performance; they do notgenerally show the difference betweena strong and a weak performance inrelation to a goal.
4.3 DevelopmentThe first step in a successfulscorecard program is properscorecard development. Capgeminiunderstands that a profit recovery
program must be fully integrated intothe retailers overall operations program.As such, we broaden the scope of ourscorecards to include not just shrink-specific data, but all pertinent
The 21st Century Shrink Program:Analytics, Reporting and the High-Response Protocol 9
4. The Scorecard
The most important rule of
scorecard development is
that the scorecard must besimple to interpret. The
entire focus of the
analytics and reporting
program is to equip the
retailer with pointed,
relevant, action-oriented
information
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the scorecard must be put throughsensitivity analysis. This willdetermine how overall scoringresponds to changes in the variables.The scorecard must be stable. Small
variations in the data should not causewide scoring changes.
4.4 ImplementationOnce the scorecard has beendeveloped, the next step is properexecution, which starts with thedesign process. Implementationbecomes much easier with properdesign and buy-in up front. However,proper design must also be managedwith proper implementation. It isessential that the scorecard be
implemented in conjunction withprocess changes in order to leverage
new information and properorganizational change management.
It is important that the rewards andorganization align and enable theinitiative. Retailers often seechallenges in execution whenscorecards are simply built and set upwith regular distribution, assumingthat mere visibility of the issues willresult in change.
The organizational change managementmust be managed and included in theprogram as its own work stream.Depending on the scope of changeassociated with the profit recoveryprogram implementation, a brandedawareness campaign may make themost sense to heighten visibility of theissues and mobilize action. A clear,concise, consistent message isessential and strong executive supportis crucial. It is recommended toappoint a senior-level executive tobe the face of the initiative and anexecutive-level profit loss steeringcommittee with all importantfunctional groups represented toapprove all important programrecommendations.
At Capgemini, we manage eight broadelements as part of our changemanagement work stream (Figure 9):
the extra effort. The goal is not tomake the perfect decision, but tomake good decisions and get themimplemented quickly so that theorganization can begin realizing true
value.
A significant amount of effort inscorecard development typicallyrevolves around the scoring criteria.To stay on track, ask key questionssuch as:
nWhat type of information is mostimportant to decision-makers?
nWhat type of behavior are we tryingto encourage?
The answers to those questions willinfluence the scoring methodology.The three most common types are:
nAbsolute rank within a group (e.g.,district, region, buyer group)
n Some percentage level above orbelow a pre-defined goal set at thebeginning of the fiscal period (e.g.,gross profit .5% lower than goalreceives a lower score than a storethat meets or exceeds gross profittargets)
n Some combination of the above two(e.g., 50-50 blend of the two scores)
Finally, once the variables and scoringmethodology have been established,
10
Figure 8: Store-Level Scorecard Example
Week 12 3Q06 (Trailing 3 months running totals except environmental risk - assessed annually & self-audit - biannually) Store Score 8.81 Store District Rank 9
K $ % Goal Score Rank Value Goal Score Rank Value Goal Score RankCur r Qt r F/ E Sh rink 7 0. 00 3.70 2.50 0.17 10 Non-Auth Returns 0.05 - 0.12 7 Voids 2.87 2.00 0.24 14Cur r Q tr RX Sh rink 2 3. 00 1.08 0.50 0.24 14 Damage Returns 0.15 0.10 0.17 10 Refunds 1.98 1.00 0.36 21Curr Qtr Shrink 93.0 3.26 2.00 0.25 15 Shoplifting Loss 0.10 0.10 0.19 11 Discounts 1.12 1.00 0.22 13T4Q Shrink 372.0 2.89 2.00 0.22 13 Non-Return Loss 0.05 0.05 0.08 5 Rain Checks 0.70 1.00 0.07 4Variance (23.00) (0.37) 0.20 0.29 17 Total Returns 0.30 0.25 0.15 9 Total SRA 6.67 5.00 0.32 19
K $ % Variance Score Rank Value Goal Score Rank Value Goal Score RankF/E Sales 1,892 47% 4.86% 0.07 4 Current 94.00 98.00 0.17 10 Current 97.20 98.00 0.05 3RX Sales 2,130 53% 1.41% 0.10 6 Previous 93.20 98.00 0.20 12 Previous 95.00 98.00 0.14 8Total Sales 4,022 100% 3.03% 0.07 4 Variance 0.80 - 0.10 6 Variance 2.20 - 0.02 1
K $ # Days Goal Score Rank Value Goal Score Rank Value Goal Score RankSalesfloor 368.6 33.00 30.00 0.25 15 O ut -o f-st ock % sales 0 .5 0 0.50 0.10 6 Customer 3,770 3,700 0.10 6Increase/ (Reduction) 29.0 2.60 - 0.32 19 Scan Rate 98.00 98.00 0.12 7 Prev Qtr 3,890 3,700 0.07 4Back Room 89.4 8.00 5.00 0.31 18 LP Cases 2 - 0.07 4 Variance (120) - 0.14 8
I nc re ase/ (Red uc ti on ) 8 .9 0.80 - 0.24 14 Script 700 0.12 7RX 189.9 17.00 10.00 0.24 14 Prev Qtr 700 0.12 7
I nc re ase/ (Red uc ti on ) 4 .5 0.40 - 0.20 12 Variance - - 0.14 8
Total 647.9 58.00 45.00 0.32 19 K $ Goal Score RankIncrease/(Reduct ion) 42.4 3.80 - 0.36 21 Variance 12.00 - 0.31 18
$ % Goal Score Rank Value Goal Score Rank Value Goal Score RankRegular Non-RX 519 12.90 12.70 0.12 7 Part-time 68.00 60.00 0.03 2 Weekly Avg 9.10 9.00 0.05 3Regular RX 563 14.00 14.00 0.14 8 Prev Qtr 67.00 60.00 0.07 4 P re v W eek Avg 8 .80 9.00 0.08 5Overtime 201 5.00 3.00 0.17 10 Variance 1.00 - 0.07 4 Variance 0.30 - 0.03 2Double Time - - - 0.02 1 Full-time 32.00 40.00 0.03 2 Qtr-to-date 8.70 9.00 0.08 5
Prev Qtr 33.00 40.00 0.07 4 Prev Qtr-to -date 8.50 9.00 0.14 8Variance (1.00) - 0.07 4 Variance 0.20 - 0.05 3
Value Score RankRisk rating 9.20 0.08 5
Store Shrink & Profit Recovery Scorecard Example
Shrink
Sales
Known Loss (% of sales) Sales Reducing Activity (% of sales)
Self-Audit Scores DM Audit Scores
Environment
Money Order/Money Gram
Hours Scheduled
CountsInventory Days Other Shrink Indicators
Wages (% of total wages) Customer Service Scores
Source: Capgemini
Figure 9: Capgeminis Change Management Framework
Manage to
Deliver
Outcomes
VisionClarity
AffirmPowerful
Business Case
Develop ChangeLeadership &
Accountability
AlignPerformance &
Culture
IntegratePlanning &
Teams
Increase ChangeCapacity
Enlist
StakeholderCommitment
Change Specific
Communication
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Retail the way we see it
n Gain organizational buy-in thoseresponsible for implementing the
scorecards can hinder itseffectiveness if they do not see thelogic and vision behind it
n Make the scorecard easy to interpretand act upon this is an essentialstep to wide-spread adoption
n Make the scorecard the central focusof store performance combine theprofit loss data with overallperformance data
n Intentionally manage the changemanagement associated with theinitiative this element cannot beoverstated; flawless design must beaccompanied with properimplementation so that the rewardsand the organization areaccommodating the initiative
n Make the scorecard easy to maintain automatically compile anddistribute the information
n Tie the output to variablecompensation our experience
shows that this is the singlegreatest way to inject quickand meaningful change
The 21st Century Shrink Program:Analytics, Reporting and the High-Response Protocol 11
Objectives, activities and outcomesmust be clearly defined and backed by
senior management. Communicationmust be frequent and consistent.Training must be developed andimplemented for all participatingparties.
Properly executed, the scorecardshould be the single, central point ofstore performance within the company.
When a store manager is visited by adistrict manager or when a categorymanger receives a performance
appraisal, their one-page scorecardshould be the basis for discussion.Capgemini recommends tying variablecompensation to scorecardperformance. For this reason alone,it becomes imperative that theorganization participate in and havefull understanding of the scorecardmechanics.
4.5 Critical Success FactorsnAppoint a senior manager as the face
of the initiative an effective leadercan galvanize support and speedvalue creation
n Establish an executive-level profitrecovery committee this needs tobe established at the beginning ofthe process so that it can give strong,continuous support to programinitiatives
Even flawless design must
be managed with proper
implementation. The
rewards and organization
must align to enable the
initiative the
organizational change
management must be
intentionally managed andincluded in the program as
its own work stream
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This final piece of the profit recoveryanalytics and reporting puzzle helps
retailers make use of all their newlyrevealed information. The high-response protocol instructs managersexactly how to act in response tohighlighted trends.
5.1 DesignThe content of the protocol is acompilation of leading practiceknowledge acquired by working withour retail clients and what has beendiscovered while working as store
operations professionals. As with thescorecards, strong executive sponsorshipand organizational buy-in areessential, but there must also beclearly defined accountability,benchmarks and format to easilysearch and act against.
Initially, it is important to understandthat each retailer is different and, assuch, each response protocol mustspecifically tailored. Each retailer hasa unique set of competitive pressuresand corporate strategy. As with everyprogram within the company, theprofit recovery program must be fullycompliant with the retailers overallstrategic objectives.
Next, someone must be accountablefor each out-of-tolerance metric.Specific responsibility must be assignedfor each and every important profitloss element. For example, theregional loss prevention head might
be responsible for discounting abusewhile a specific buyer might beresponsible for too much inventoryin a specific commodity group.Capgemini recommends buildingRACI (responsible, accountable,consulted, informed) charts alongwith process charts when designingthe response processes.
Baseline targets or benchmarks mustalso be clearly defined. It is important
to know exactly when an elevatedaction should commence and exactlywhen it should cease. Clear targetsmust be set for each. Specific servicelevel agreements (SLAs) must be
explicitly determined. Responsibleparties must be given reasonable
deadlines to complete prescribedactions for out-of-tolerance conditions.
Finally, the action plan must be easyto use and to act against. We typicallyorganize the protocol to read like areference manual. The content isdivided into scenario-driven situationswhich detail the response appropriateto that scenario. For example, profitloss caused by data integrity cases willelicit a specific set of responses from
the organization, excess inventory willcall for another set of responses whileproblems with overall store shrinkmay require a combination of severaldifferent responses. Data integrityexception reports, for example, mayreveal differences between two non-integrated systems. This exceptionalert may inform managers to a lack ofsystem or process controls and theresponse protocol could then call for asystem audit that may uncoverinstances of paper shrink and helpinform operators how to use systemscorrectly.
We also recommend embedding theaction plan within the scorecard. Bycreating an on-line reporting andaction plan tool, managers can bealerted of out-of-tolerance conditionsand click-through to the tailoredresponse plan based on the specificexception. Workflow can also beintegrated into the tool to alert
managers via email of exceptions ormissed SLAs.
5.2 ExecutionProper response execution is the keyto success for the entire profit recoveryanalytics and reporting program. Ifthe retailer cannot effectively act onthe response plan, all the analysis,reporting and program design workwill have been completely wasted. Toensure success, the program must
have clear overall ownership,uncompromised executive supportand consistent action.
12
5. The High-Response Protocol
Each retailer has a unique
set of competitive
pressures and corporatestrategy the profit loss
program must be fully
compliant with the
retailers overall strategic
objectives.
If the retailer cannot
effectively act on the
response plan, all the
analysis, reporting andprogram design work will
have been completely
wasted.
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5.3 Critical Success Factorsn Executive sponsorship
n Organizational buy-in
n Clear definition of accountabilityand recommended response
n Make the actions simple, targetedand effective
n Clear definition of benchmarks(what level of performance isrequired before the elevated actionplan is met) and SLAs
Intentionally manage the change
management associated with theinitiative it is impossible tooverstated this; flawless design willfail if the processes, the rewards andthe organization have not beenchanged to enable the initiative
Retail the way we see it
First, there must be clear ownershipof the overall program. For some
retailers, the domain for the protocolwill probably reside within storeoperations. Within others, the lossprevention department is a morelikely home. Whoever is designated,that group must truly own theprogram and execute against it.
Full executive support for the activitiesis also essential. All response tasksdocumented in the action plan mustbe fulfilled without interference from
superiors. As mentioned earlier,various causes of profit loss existwithin every functional department.
As such, response to profit loss driverswill necessarily cut across functionalreporting lines and must be effectivelymanaged across these lines. Strongexecutive support is the best methodto ensure the proper execution.
In addition, all appropriate changemanagement considerations must betaken into account. The changemanagement work stream (outlined insection 4.4) must be extended to theimplementation of the high-responseprotocol as well.
Finally, every effort should be takento avoid treating any one store ordistribution center as unique. Theplan needs to be flexible enough sothat true exceptions can beaccommodated, but not at theexpense of consistency. For example,
a flagship store might carry moremerchandise and run morepromotions than the average store,but that probably does not make itunique enough to warrant a differentset of operating standards. It isimportant, however, to test the actionsinitially on a small pilot group ofstores so that the action plan can beadjusted for different operatingconditions before a complete rollouttakes place.
The 21st Century Shrink Program:Analytics, Reporting and the High-Response Protocol 13
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6.1 Profit Recovery ROIInitiatives focused on shrink reduction
and gross profit recovery bring someof the best returns for the investmentdollar in the retail industry today.They usually call for relatively littlecapital spending, improve all-important operating margins, providea tangible, quantifiable benefit andcan even work to boost sales.
First, programs focused on improvinggross profit recovery require littlecapital or operating expenditure given
the potential opportunity. Capgeminiprograms usually yield 40 to 70 quickhit recommendations that require noor little capital outlay and minimalorganizational change. An average of10 to 15 strategic initiatives build onthe benefits produced by the quickhits and typically yield, if properlyimplemented, 50-100 basis points ofprofit recovery and return 12-15 timesany consulting fees. Even better, ourexperience shows that, on average,properly implemented shrink reportingprojects have returned 10-20% of thisbenefit within the first year.
For example, Capgemini helped a 150store regional grocer recover over $25million in profit loss in 17 months ontotal project expenses of less than $3million by instituting robust exceptionreporting, preventative data integritycontrols, focused profit loss actionplans, standardized DSD practices andright-sizing excess inventory. Through
an appropriate change managementprogram, this benefit has become anannuity, realized annually over theirprior operating state.
The next benefit of enhanced profitloss performance is improved operatingmargins. Wall Street is increasinglyfocused on Earnings Before Interestand Taxes (EBIT). This is exactlywhere the primary benefit from profitrecovery initiatives shows itself. As
profit loss and fraudulent coupon/discounting abuse decrease, loweringoverall expense, gross profit dollarsincrease.
Gross profit recovery programs alsoyield hard, quantifiable benefits. If
the program is set up with a focusgroup of stores that receive theupdated tools and processes and acontrol group that operates underbusiness-as-usual conditions, thentrue program benefits can beaccurately measured independent ofexogenous influences.
Finally, our experience shows thatprofit loss improvement can actuallyboosts sales. Since out-of-stocks are
less common, customers can morereadily find and purchase desiredproducts.
14
6. Why Do I Need to Change?
Our shrink program
typically yields, if properly
implemented, 50-100 basispoints of profit recovery
and returns 12-15 times
any consulting fees.
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Retail the way we see it
transaction monitoring. Through theefforts of these early adopters, theobstacles and pitfalls have beenidentified and, as a result, increasedgross profit recovery has become thestandard all retail operators mustattain to stay competitive.
6.2 21st Century RetailOperating Environment
For most grocery stores today it isdifficult to know the true scope of losseven with a properly implementedperpetual inventory system (seeCapgemini whitepaper, Computer-
Assisted Ordering: Focus on RetailGrocery1). Most retailers can not giveyou their Stock Keeping Unit (SKU)-level shrink numbers on a regularbasis without going through extensivemanual processes. The only timemost retailers have an accurate picture
of their true profit loss is whenperiodic physical inventories aretaken. Even then, the information isusually only available at the categorylevel, in an aggregate dollar amount.
A leading drug retailer, among otherretailers, has extended the limits oftheir profit loss program to drive morethan 100 net basis points out ofoperating expense. With companieslike these leading the way, profit lossnumbers have fallen across the entireretail industry (Figure 10). This sortof assault means that, in order tosurvive, all retailers will need to becompetitive and perform at lower andlower levels of acceptable loss.
Operating environment changes areputting additional pressure on U.S.retailers. Retailer formats are convergingand labor costs are climbing. Thecombination of these two factors isleading to eroding profit margins.
Driving down labor cost has been thestrategy most retailers use to preservethe bottom line, but this strategy hasits limits and many retailers are fastapproaching them.
There have already been numerousearly adopters of 21st century profitrecovery control programs in the U.S.and Europe. Together with Capgemini,these companies have defined theroadmap. For example, Capgemini
assisted a large U.S. grocery companyto take more than 50 basis points ofshrink out of their operation throughpredictive shrink analytics andreporting and instituting DSD
The 21st Century Shrink Program:Analytics, Reporting and the High-Response Protocol 15
Figure 10: Year-Over-Year Average Retail Shrink (Percentage of Total Revenue)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
1.70
1.80
1.54
1.65
Source: University of Florida2
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Depending upon the number of storesin the scope, a typical profit recovery
program implementation can takefrom 18 to 24 months for Tier 1retailers. Our profit recovery projectstypically begin with an eight- to ten-week diagnostic divided into fivebroad areas, covering the entire retailorganization (Figures 3 and 11).
The diagnostic typically yields 40-70quick hits and 10-15 strategicinitiatives from which value is derived
as soon as possible. Often quick hitsare identified before the end of the
diagnostic.
The diagnostic phase is typicallyfollowed by an Accelerated SolutionsEnvironment (ASE) session designedto validate, quantify and consolidatestrategic transformation opportunitiesinto an integrated program and gainorganizational alignment on allstrategic initiatives.
16
7. Our Approach
Figure 11: The Capgemini Shrink Point-of-View (A Holistic Approach)
Audit & Supervision Supply Chain Category Management
Scorecard compliance auditStore/department classification
for improvement priorityField Support/supervision
resources
Market segmentation, core itemselection and movement tracking
Category/SKU net profit analysisand periodic SKU rationalization
Logistics Warehouse Buyer
Security
Damage preventionand delivery integrity
Quality inspection &
receiving integrityInventory management
Forecasting &
inventory integrityPerformance tracking
Parameter
settings/manager
intervention
POS Receiving Inventory Backstage People Physical Perishables
Receiving
verification
Order
replenishment
Shrink measure
integrity and
reporting
Physical
inventory
integrity
Performance
scorecards
Store and SKU
risk analysis/
reporting
Price integrity
Pre-screening/
background
Shrink org and
loss prevention
staffingHiring
effectiveness
Technology
enabled
workforce
optimization
Awareness and
training platform
Retention
strategies
Overall asset
control platform
beyond CC
TV/EAS
Centralized
monitoring
Physical
security
Production
planning
Order
replenishment
Known loss
tracking/mark-
down controls
Tare weight and
portion controls
Shelf life
standards
Shrink trend
reporting
Known loss
tracking/mark-
down controls
Idle or dead
inventory
disposition
Product exit
strategy
Damage
reduction
DSD system
functionality
Vendor payment
process
KPI shrink trend
reporting
Store level
standards and
processes
Centralized
transaction
monitoring
KPI* Mgt
transaction
monitoring
Policy-payment/
credit controls
Information Flow
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After the diagnostic and the ASE session,we finish implementing quick hit
recommendations while simultaneouslybeginning the pilot phase for selectedstrategic initiatives. During the pilotphase, we recommend establishing afocus and control group of stores toproperly measure the programs impact.
Careful consideration must be givenwhen choosing pilot stores. It isimportant to choose stores that arerepresentative of the larger businessbut not mission critical in terms of
organizational risk.
Following the pilot (Phase 2), ourimplementation approach is fine-tuned to incorporate the lessonslearned. Phase 3, termed theLearning Center, follows with arollout to a larger subset of stores.Our approach is further refined andthen full rollout (Phase 4) begins onan enterprise-wide level (Figure 12).
The 21st Century Shrink Program:Analytics, Reporting and the High-Response Protocol 17
Accelerated Solutions Environment (ASE): The Art of Collaboration
What if...n you could get all of your stakeholders to work together to discuss your business
strategy, technology architecture and next business improvement initiative?
n you could unleash the full potential and creativity of your staff, your leadership team,
key suppliers, customers, and subject matter specialists all at once - and agree on a
common vision and transformation roadmap?
n you could accelerate all phases of your system development projects reducing months
to weeks and weeks to days?
n your team could identify tens of millions of dollars in cost savings, develop a detailed
action plan to realize the benefits, and then commit to each other to go for it?
In the Accelerated Solutions Environment (ASE), we combine our world-class
facilitation team, patented, decision-making process, global knowledge bases and
innovative workspaces to enable organizations to make better, faster business decisions.
We have conducted thousands of successful ASE DesignEvents for leading
organizations around the world.
The Bottom Line
The value of an ASE is realized through:
nAcceleration: The process dramatically reduces cycle times for solution delivery and
results. Sponsors often say that they have accomplished three, six, or nine months of
work in three days.
n Commitment: The rapid alignment and mobilization of a large team occurs in several
days. Change agents make the decisions and commit to the successful implementation
of the solution.
n Reduced Risk: Higher quality solutions are developed through creative collaboration in
a knowledge-rich environment. Better, more comprehensive solutions yield superior
operating results.
Capgemini is dedicated to the art of collaboration, acceleration and delivering
measurable and enduring value. The greatest testimony of our value is our list of repeat
clients.
Figure 12: Typical Shrink Program Timeline
Shrink Improvement Effort
Phase 1
10 weeks Phase 3Phase 2 Phase 4
Diagnostic
(Design)
Development Learning Center Roll-Out
Multiple Store Trial
(test, measure, refine)Roll-Out
1/3 stores
Roll-Out
2/3 stores
Roll-Out
Certify
Corporate/Support
Initiatives
Implement Change
(test, measure, refine)
Continuous
Improvement
Pilot Store
Source: Capgemini
The ASE delivers in a 3-day
DesignEvent whattypically takes 3-6 months
worth of work using
traditional methods
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For more information on shrink analytics, reporting and high-response protocolas well as Capgeminis entire shrink offering set, please contact:
18
Capgemini, one of theworlds foremost providers
of Consulting, Technology andOutsourcing services, has a unique wayof working with its clients, called the
Collaborative Business Experience.
Backed by over four decades of industry
and service experience, the CollaborativeBusiness Experience is designed to helpour clients achieve better, faster, more
sustainable results through seamlessaccess to our network of world-leadingtechnology partners and collaboration-
focused methods and tools.
Through commitment to mutual successand the achievement of tangible value,
we help businesses implement growthstrategies, leverage technology, and thrivethrough the power of collaboration.
Capgemini employs over 84,000 peopleworldwide and reported 2007 global
revenue of greater than $11 billion.
More information about our services,
offices and research is available atwww.capgemini.com.
About Capgemini and the
Collaborative Business Experience
Brian Cederborg
+1 707 712 9409
Craig Moyer
+1 610 392 3407
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Retail the way we see it
Endnotes1 Computer-Assisted Ordering: Focus on Retail Grocery, Capgemini, January 2006
2 2004 National Retail Security Survey, University of Florida
AcronymsASE Accelerated Solutions Environment
DSD Direct Store Delivery
EBIT Earnings Before Interest and Taxes
HR Human Resources
KPI Key Performance Indicator
LP Loss Prevention
POS Point of Sale
RACI Responsible, Accountable, Consulted, Informed
ROI Return on Investment
SKU Stock Keeping Unit
SLAs Service level Agreements
The 21st Century Shrink Program:Analytics, Reporting and the High-Response Protocol 19
Appendix
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www.capgemini.com