2018’
Deals & Portfolio Review
Clarivate Analytics KoreaLife Science ConsultantKyung-Mi Lee
2019. 4. 16
2
AGENDA
❖ Deal-making 2018 Year-in-Review
2018년거래트렌드
인수합병동향
라이센싱및공동개발동향
글로벌제약사의거래트랜드
❖ 머신러닝 (Machine Learning)기법에기반한최초의 AI 약물개발예측프로그램
“Cortellis Drug Timeline and Success Rate”
This report contains general information only and is based on the experiences and research of Clarivate Analytics practitioners. Clarivate Analytics is not, by means of this report, rendering business, financial, investment, or other professional advice or services. This report is not a substitute for such professional advice or services, nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your business, you should consult a qualified professional advisor. Clarivate Analytics, its affiliates, and related entities shall not be responsible for any loss sustained by any person who relies on this report.
Disclaimer
Deal-making 2018
Year-in-Review
5
M&A11%
Licenses41%
Asset Purchases
5%
Funding18%
Commercial14%
Other10%
Service1%
M&A64%
Licenses26%
Asset Purchases
5%
2018년, 거래트렌드
4014Total transactions
announced in 2018
$428 BTotal deal dollars
announced in 2018
• Unless otherwise noted, all dollars throughout presentation are USD and are nominal figures (not corrected for inflation).• Transaction types: M&A = 50-100% acquisitions, mergers, reverse mergers; Licenses = licenses, joint ventures, research
collaborations; Asset Purchases = products and business unit acquisitions; Funding = acquisitions of < 50% equity, grants, loans, other funding types; Commercial = distribution, supply, co-promotion agreements; Service = contract services; Other = royalty buyouts, spin-outs, settlements.
Funding 15%; Commercial 2%; Service 0.2%;Other 1.2%
2018’ Deal Volume 2018’ Deal size ($ billion)
Source : 2019, Cortellis
6
M&A, 482 M&A, 449
Licenses, 1811
Licenses, 1658
Asset Purch, 210 Asset Purch,
184
Funding, 941
Funding, 734
Commercial, 563
Commercial, 560
Service, 465
Service, 376
Other, 50
Other, 53
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2017 2018
Deal Volume
M&A, $256M&A, $276
Licenses, $88
Licenses, $111
Asset Purch, $33
Asset Purch, $22
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
2017 2018
Deal Size ($ billion)
2017년 대비, 2018년은?
4014
4522$428 B
$392 B
** Funding $6.0 (2017), $14.9 (2018); Commercial $24.0, $2.0; Service <$0.1, $0.2; Other (royalty buy-out, spin-out, settlement) $4.4, $1.2.
**
**
Source : 2019, Cortellis
2018 Dealmaking
Year-in-Review
Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A)
8
$2.0
$2.1
$2.1
$2.1
$2.3
$2.4
$2.5
$3.7
$4.3
$4.8
$5.1
$5.7
$7.0
$7.1
$8.7
$9.0
$11.6
$13.0
$62.3
$67.0
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70
Deal size ($ billion)
2018년, Top 20 M&A
Service
Therapeutics
Therapeutics
Therapeutics
Therapeutics
Therapeutics
Cosmetics/nutrition
Therapeutics
Healthcare data
Therapeutics
Therapeutics
Therapeutics
Financial Holding firm
Therapeutics
Medical diagnostics
Therapeutics
Medical device
Medical diagnostics
Cosmetics
Therapeutics
Sector
Future milestones
Total at closure $ billion
KEY:
Pending closure
Cigna/Express Scripts
Takeda/Shire
Sanofi/Bioverativ
Celgene/Juno
International Flavors & Fragrances/Frutarom
Celgene/Impact Biomedicines ($1.1 B upfront + $5.9 B milestones)
Veritas Capital/Athenahealth
GlaxoSmithKline/TESARO
Sanofi/Ablynx
Boston Scientific/BTG
CVC Capital/Finanziaria Industriale
Aurora Cannabis/MedReleaf
Roche/Foundation Medicine
Advent International/Zentiva
Platinum Equity/LifeScan Diabetes Institute
Novartis/Endocyte
Johnson & Johnson/Ci:z Holdings
Danaher/Integrated DNA
GlaxoSmithKline/Novartis
Novartis/AveXis
Source : 2019, Cortellis
9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
No
. M&
A t
ran
sact
ion
s
치료분야별 M&A transactions
2017
2018
치료분야별, 2017년 대비 2018년의 M&A
Analysis covers M&A transactions with an identifiable core therapeutic focus.
Not shown:
TAs for which there
were ≤5 M&As
announced in 2018:
• Immune
• Toxicity
• Inflammatory
Source : 2019, Cortellis
2018 Dealmaking
Year-in-Review
Licenses, Joint Ventures, and Research Collaborations
11
2018년 Top 20 라이센싱
$80
$300
$80
$50
$150
$350
$131
$170
$150
$1,000
$150
$1,850
$200
$175
$300
$1,250
$1,370
$1,565
$1,300
$1,600
$1,700
$1,622
$1,530
$1,788
$2,000
$1,688
$2,800
$3,010
$1,780
$3,505
$3,500
$4,950
$4,355
$125
$1,425
$425
$1,350
$1,100
$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000
Roche/SQZ Biotech
Boehringer Ingelheim/OSE…
Gilead/Scholar Rock
bluebird/Gritstone Oncology
Cilag/arGEN-X
Merck & Co/Sutro Biopharma
Gilead/Tango
Gilead/Agenus
Akcea/Ionis
Eli Lilly/AC Immune
Takeda/WAVE Life Sciences
Celgene/Prothena
Biogen/Ionis
Allogene/Cellectis
Kite/Sangamo
Bristol-Myers Squibb/Nektar
Eli Lilly/Dicerna
Janssen/Arrowhead
Genentech/Affimed
Merck & Co/Eisai
Upfront + equity ($M)
Milestones ($M)
Remainder ($M)
Oncology/Launched
Oncology/Discov
Infection/Phase 2
Oncology/Launched
Neuro/Discov
Oncology/Discov
Diversified/Discov
Neuro/Phase 2
Neuro/Discov
Neuro/Pre-reg
Oncology/Discov
Oncology/Phase 2
Oncology/Discov
Inflam/Discov
Oncology/Clinical
Oncology/Discov
Discovery stage alliances
Total announced deal size $ million
Diversified/Discov
Oncology/Discov
Neuro/Discov
Oncology/Discov
* A total of 32 licensing deals valued at > $1B were captured Cortellis as of 2 January 2018. Only the top 20 are displayed here Source : 2019, Cortellis
12
여전히높은관심, 항암과 신경계질환
Cancer, 515
Neurology/Psychiatric, 183
Infection, 129
Diversified, 91
Endocrine/Metabolic, 63
Gastrointestinal, 63
Dermatologic, 39
Cardiovascular, 37
Other/Miscellaneous, 34
Ocular, 34
Immune, 33
Genitourinary/Sexual Function, 30Inflammatory, 25Musculoskeletal, 23
Hematologic, 17 Respiratory, 17 Toxicity/Intoxication, 13
Chart includes all announced License, Joint Venture, and Research-Only collaborations where a Therapy Area is defined
Source : 2019, Cortellis
2018 Dealmaking
Year-in-Review
Top Pharma Dealmakers
14
2018 글로벌제약사들은?
• Graph covers key transaction types: M&As, Licenses/joint ventures, and Research-only deals• Not shown: Other Funding, Service, Distribution, Co-promotion only, Supply only, and Settlement transactions.• 2017 revenue from PharmExec.com Top 50 Companies (August 2018)
글로벌제약사의 BUY-side vs. SELL-side
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
No
. an
no
un
ced
tra
nsa
ctio
ns
TOTAL BUY TOTAL SELL
Source : 2019, Cortellis
15
2018년 글로벌 제약사들의관심치료분야는?
• Covers announced total deal size for key transactions types, M&As, Licenses/joint ventures, Research-only deals, and Other (Asset Purchases, Equity Stakes, Spin-outs), with identifiable therapeutic focus areas.
• Not shown: Toxicity, Unknown and Not Applicable therapy areas. • Diversified total does not include Takeda/Shire acquisition (Total for Diversified is $92,934 with deal included).• Companies are the Top 30 in terms of 2017 revenue (derived from PharmExec.com Top 50 Companies, August 2018)
글로벌제약사의치료분야별거래량과규모
Source : 2019, Cortellis
2019’s Deal-making for Q1
17
2019’ Q1 Deals
Using predictive analytics to make better decisions
Cortellis Analytics – Drug Timeline and Success Predictor
1919
Drug Timeline and Success Rate (DTSR)?
>70KA robust foundation
Real-time inputs
Powered by machine learning
Patent-pending algorithm
Drug programs
Dynamic updates
>325KClinical trials 25%
greater accuracy vs. benchmark models
More reliable results>15Years of data
More info on testing the precision of our model
20
Core traits impacting
drug success rates
Historical Cortellis (CI, CTI and CDI)
data
Upcoming milestones
Model Inputs
Model/ Algorithm Output
25% 더높아진예측률 !(벤치마킹 대비)
Patent-pending predictive model:
• 프로그램안에서특정이벤트의영향을통합하는 “Machine learning-generated model”
• 매일업데이트되는데이터 : 최신정보를기반으로미세하게조정된예측
• 특정방법을따르거나단일예측패턴이아님
• Milestones 과의약품개발의특성이필요에따라시장에적용됨
21
2019’ 블록버스터 예상약물 ‘Zolgensma‘는지금? 그리고앞으로는?
Source: Cortellis Analytics – Drug Timeline & Success Rates
22
US / International Patent Pending
Methodology – Drug Timeline & Success Rate Model
23
Methodology – program events/elements 예시Sample Milestone Events
ANDA Approval
ANDA Filing
Availability For Outlicensing
Expected Approval
Expected Clinical Trial Outcome Announcements
Expected Clinical Trial Start Date
Expected Clinical Trial End Date
IND Filing
Expected NDA/sNDA/BLA/sBLA Filing
Interim/Topline/Initial Trial Results Reported
PDUFA/BsUFA Date
Predicted Launch Date
Regulatory Committee Meetings
Regulatory Response
Safety/Black Box Warnings
Trial Completion/Final Data Reported
Sample Qualitative Data Elements
개발의특성program
• therapeutic area 가정해져있는지?• 특정 regulatory designation (Fast Track, etc.)을가지는지?
• 환자집단을나누기위해 biomarkers가사용되었는지?
• …
의약품의특성drug
• 제형변경한의약품인지?• 복합제약물인지?• …
개발의특성sponsor
• 개발 sponsor의규모는(L/M/S)?• …
More in the future, as trends develop
24
o 2017년대비, 2018년거래규모의성장
o 증가한디스커버리단계에서의에서의거래 (Top 20 중 13건)
o 증가하는추세의중국의라이센싱관심
o 여전한항암제그리고신경계질환에대한관심
o 글로벌제약사의항암분야에대한관심
o “Drug Timeline and Success Rate (DTSR)” is on your side.
Summary
25
Clarivate Analytics Life Sciences
Clarivate Analytics is the global leader in providing trusted insights and analytics to accelerate the pace of innovation.
Building on a heritage going back more than a century and a half, we have built some of the most trusted brands across the innovation lifecycle, including Web of Science, Cortellis, Derwent, Techstreet, CompuMark, and MarkMonitor.
Today, Clarivate Analytics is a new and independent company on a bold entrepreneurial mission to help our clients radically reduce the time from new ideas to life-changing innovations.
Cortellis Competitive IntelligenceLeading pipeline database for depth and breadth of content
Cortellis Deals IntelligenceRapid insights into critical deal making trends
Cortellis Regulatory IntelligenceMost comprehensive regulatory content and analysis
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MetaCoreProprietary toolbox for discovery of biological pathways
Integrity & Drug Research AdvisorUnique provider of multifaceted drug research content
BioWorld NewsDaily actionable intelligence and incisve analysis
Powering life sciences innovation with trusted content, analytics & technology.
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