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PricewaterhouseCoopers Global Media & Entertainment Outlook 15 1) . 1)
- Internet Access- Internet Advertising
- Recorded Music- Filmed Entertainment
-
2009/3/24
& , .
& 2007 1.6 2012 2.2 (08~12) 6.6% . 2007 TV, , 75%( 15% ), 25% . 2007 37.6% 35.7%, 20.9%, 5.7%. (4.8%), (6.8%) 8.8% .
& 2007 681.4 (1,392.3 ) (395.5 ) 1.7 . (08~12) 14.6% 2012 1,345.4 .
- TV Subscription & License Fees- TV Advertising- Radio and Out-of-Home Advertising- Newspaper Publishing- Consumer Magazine Publishing- Consumer and Educational Book Publishing- Business to Business Publishing
- Video Games- Theme Park and Amusement Parks- Casino and Other Regulated Gaming- Sports
: 1) TV , Pay per view, VOD, TV , TV . 2) , , , 3) , . 4) , , , PC , 5) , , , 6) , TV, ,
: PricewaterhouseCoopers(2008. 6)
-
2009/3/25
[ 1] 2007 & (08~12)
(: 10, %)10.7
4.9
6.2
1.20.6
1.4
9.7
2.8
1.5
10.4
8.9
4.5
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1.4
24.1
34.0
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10.98.4
13.7
6.8
18.7
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12.4
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
TV
TV
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&
B2B
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
(08~12)
: PricewaterhouseCoopers(2008. 6)
[ 2] , &
0
10
20
30
0 3 6 9
/
TVTV
&
B2B
: PricewaterhouseCoopers & 2007 (08~12)
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2009/3/26
, , , , . , , .
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. 2006 11 5 () , , , , . 2006 11 5 2020 ( 2020) 15 . 2006 9 11 5 , . . (), () , . , , ,
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2009/3/27
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2007 40.7% 1,570 2010 3,421 .
[ 3]
(: )
850
1,116
1,570
2,168
2,682
3,421
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38.1%
31.4%
40.7%
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0
0.05
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0.15
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0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
: Sinotes(2008. 1),
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-
2009/3/28
3. (1)
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, 2008 1 31 . , , . . , 1 . (2006)
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2009/3/29
, (2007 122) () .
(2)
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SP . , 2006 SP , 2 ( ), WAP . 2006 , , SP SP SP . . 2006 SP SP . , , , , SP . 2 SP .
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2009/3/210
WTO . 2006 7 13 , . . 2008 . (ICP) SP , SP 1,000 , ( ) 50% . SP .
. 1. (1)
2.5 . IDC 2007 105.7 (07~12) 19.9% 2012 262.3 . .
2008 10 83% . R&D .
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2009/3/211
[ 4]
9.113.2
24.7
37.7
65.4
105.7
62%
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87%
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0
30
60
90
120
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0%
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40%
60%
80%
100%
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2005 , , , , KINGSOFT 2004 68% 2007 31% .
[ 5] ('08 2Q)
KINGSOFT
(2.6%)
(3.0%)
(3.7%)
(6.5%)
(6.7%)
(7.5%)
(14.8%) SHANDA(15.7%)
NETEASE(11.2%)
(9.8%)
TENCENT(9.4%)
(9.1%)
: iResearch(2008. 7),
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2009/3/212
[ 6]
: iResearch(2008. 1),
(2)
Analysys 2005~2006 SP 2007 -1% 7.8 . 2008 , , 13.4 . , WAP JAVA BREW . 2008 2 JAVA 1 8,900 46% BREW 9,800 88% . Analysys 3G 2011 37 .
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2009/3/213
[ 7]
13.4
7.88.0
4.9
0.8 -1
6963
505
0
5
10
15
20
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E
-20
80
180
280
380
480
580
(%)()
1.3
1.6
1.91.8
1.9
0.980.86
0.520.510.52
0.0
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1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
07Q2 07Q3 07Q4 08Q1 08Q2
JAVA BREW
()
: Analysys(2008. 7),
2008 2 JAVA SP MIG SINA 1, 2 2 31.9% . BREW 1, 2 2 33.6% .
[ 8] JAVA/BREW SP ('08 2Q)
JAVA
14.60%3.70%3.40%2.60%2.50%2.30%2.10%2%1.70%
47.80%
17.30%
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MIGSinaTOM
Com2us
BREW
15.8%
11.0%
7.0%
6.8%
6.0%
35.6%
17.8%
0% 15% 30% 45% 60%
T
ence
nt
: Analysys(2008. 7),
-
2009/3/214
2. (1)
2007 1.5 . 2008 , 2009 2007 3 4.5 .
[ 9]
: iResearch(2007. 11),
MP3, , P2P . 2006 . . ,
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2009/3/215
MP3, QQ, , A8 .(2)
2002 . iResearch 2007 SP 28.7% 120.9 . 2008 174.6 .
[ 10]
93.9120.9
326.4
244.5
174.633.5
40.044.4
28.8
0
100
200
300
400
2006 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e
()
0
10
20
30
40
50
(%)
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, CRBT(Color Ring Back Tone), IVR(Interactive Voice Response), CRBT . iResearch 2008 1 CRBT 1 7 3.5% .
-
2009/3/216
2002 2002 ,
,
CRBT() 2003 2004
,
IVR 2002 2004 3G ,
2007 2007 3G
, : iResearch 2008. 6,
SP . SP TOM, Tencent, A8, Hurray , CP Taihe Rye Music , EMI, Universal, Warner, SONYBMG , . 12530 , CRBT , , M.Music . 23 10155 .
3. (1)
2007 12.5 (08~12) 29.8% 2012 46 .
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2009/3/217
5% . .
[ 11]
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722
1,247
1,969
2,626
3,282
3,938
4,595
16.7%
33.4%
57.9%
72.7%
20.0%25.0%
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
: 2007 : PricewaterhouseCoopers(2008. 6)
Baidu . Baidu , 3 Analysis 2008 2/4 Baidu 63%, 26%, 8% . Baidu UI .
Sina, Sohu, Tentcent . iResearch 2008 2/4 Sina 24%
-
2009/3/218
, Sohu 16%, Tentcent 12% . Sohu 2008 .
(2)
2006 . 3G 2009 . 2008 2010 , 3G . .
2007 100% 7.8 , 2010 22 .
[ 12]
2.45
7.8
18
22
13
108.3%
66.7%56.0%
22.2%
38.5%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2006 2007(E) 2008(E) 2009(E) 2010(E)
()
: iResearch(2007. 9),
, , . . 2006 3
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2009/3/219
() , 2007 7 . 2006 7 Unicom NewSpace() WAP , SMS , , 4 .
Focus Media 2006 3 8 3 () Focus Wireless , 2007 9 PPC (Pay-per-click) . 2006 10 DENTSU INC., CA MOBILE Inc., Cyber Communications Inc. DIANYI() .
2006 3 24 WAP 3G(www.3g.net.cn) . 2008 5 Google , , .
. 1. , ,
, [ 13] .,
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2009/3/220
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2009/3/221
, SP 3G . , . , . , .
2.
, , , , , & .
Joint Venture() , , . , , . . Partner() . , . , , .
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-
2009/3/222
(, , ) . , , , , .
, ,
, 25% 25% 100%
: (2007. 4)
, , , , . , .
-
2009/3/223
() , , .
3. 4
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[ 14]
-
2009/3/224
, . , . bargaining power .
. , ,
, , , . . 1 2007 16% 2012 44.8% .2) . 2008 5 24 , , 2009 1 , , 3 3G . 2010 3G 1,600 . 2% . 3G .
. , . 2) : PricewaterhouseCoopers(2008. 6)
-
2009/3/225
. . . IT , .
. . . , , . . , . , . , , , . , . . .
-
2009/3/226
(2008), KISDI (2006. 8), : , Issue
Paper(2007. 4. 18), (2008), , mimeo(2008. 1. 7), , , , , (2008. 5), , DigiEco (2008. 3), 2007 (2009. 1) 2008 ,
08-04PricewaterhouseCoopers, Global Media & Entertainment Outlook 2008~2012,
2008. 6
