-
1 1
First Quarter Economic Report 2013 &
Updated economic forecasts for 2013 10 May 2013
Hong Kong SAR Government
-
2 2
Economic performance in 2013 Q1
-
3 3
Economy grew by 2.8% in Q1
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
實質增減率 (%) Rate of change in real terms (%)
本地生產總值 Gross Domestic Product
按年增減 Year-on-year change
經季節性調整按季增減 Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change
2.8% 0.2%
-
4 4
External sector
-
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30實質增減率 (%) Rate of change in real terms (%)
貨物出口 Exports of goods
5 5
Exports of goods accelerated in growth, though with considerable volatilities during the quarter
按年增減 Year-on-year change
經季節性調整按季增減 Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change
8.8%
1.8%
-
6 6
Exports to Mainland and Asia remained the bright spot, yet the US and EU markets weakened again
Hong Kong's merchandise exports in volume terms
Year-on-year rate of change (%)
EU
USA
Mainland
Japan Other Asia
2012 Q1 -9.7 -7.1 -7.8 -1.5 -7.4
Q2 -12.5 0.1 -0.6 1.5 -2.2
Q3 -14.1 -0.1 9.7 3.3 -4.4
Q4 -4.8 1.4 12.1 0.4 -2.4
Annual -10.4 -1.3 3.4 0.9 -4.1
2013 Q1 -5.4 -5.0 8.5 -4.9 3.8
-
7 7
Exports of services strengthened further…
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25服務輸出
Exports of services
實質增減率 (%) Rate of change in real terms (%)
按年增減 Year-on-year change
經季節性調整按季增減 Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change
2.4%
4.9%
-
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40運輸服務 Transportation services 與貿易有關的服務 Trade-related services 金融及商用服務 Financial and business services 旅遊服務 Travel services
按年實質增減率 (%) Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
3.2%
-1.3%
15.3%
2.7%
8 8
…mainly supported by vibrant tourism, while other service exports also saw some relative improvements
-
9 9
Domestic sector
-
10 10
Private consumption grew strongly on stable labour market and improved incomes
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
實質增減率 (%) Rate of change in real terms (%)
私人消費開支 Private Consumption Expenditure
按年增減 Year-on-year change
經季節性調整按季增減 Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change
7.0% 4.9%
-
11 11 (*) 增減小於0.05%。 (*) Change less than 0.05%.
註︰ Note :
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
按年實質增減率 (%) Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
機器、設備及知識產權產品開支 Expenditure on machinery, equipment
and intellectual property products
本地固定資本形成總額 Gross domestic fixed
capital formation
樓宇及建造開支 Expenditure on building
and construction
-4.0%
* -2.2%
Investment spending fell back slightly
-
12 12
Labour market
-
13 13
Unemployment rate edged up, but still at low level
註: 除整體失業率外,其他均為未經季節性調整數字。 Note: Not seasonally adjusted except the overall unemployment rate.
Q11999
Q12000
Q12001
Q12002
Q12003
Q12004
Q12005
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
失業率 (%) Unemployment rate (%)
低技術勞工 Lower-skilled workers
整體 Overall
專業及管理員工 Professional and managerial staff
2.2%
3.5% 3.7%
-
14
Incomes continued to improve
Year-on-year rate of change
Nominal Real
Index of Payroll per person engaged (2012 Q4) 5.9% 2.0%
Median household income (2013 Q1) 5.8% 2.0%
Average monthly employment earnings of full-time employees in the lowest decile group (2013 Q1)
7.7% 3.4%
14
-
15 15
Inflation
-
16 16
基本綜合消費物價指數按年變動率的主要組成項目 Contribution to the year-on-year rate of change in the underlying Composite Consumer Price Index by major component
0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0
1.4 1.8 2.1
2.2 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.2
-0.1
0.1 0.3
0.6
1.1
1.7
2.3 2.6
2.5 2.1
1.7 1.5 1.5
0.8
1.5
2.0 2.4
3.7
5.0
6.1 6.4
5.9
5.1
4.0 3.8 3.8
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13
其他 Others 交通 Transport 私人房屋租金 Private housing rentals 食品 Food 基本綜合消費物價指數 Underlying CCPI
(%)
Underlying inflation held steady at 3.8% in Q1 2013
-
17 17
Local property market
-
The Government always vigilant to housing bubble risks
• Raising flat supply through increasing land supply as top policy priority
• Counter-cyclical measures to manage demand, including SSD (Nov 2010), enhanced SSD and BSD (Oct 2012), and across-the-board rise in ad valorem stamp duty rates (Feb 2013)
• Six rounds of macro-prudential measures on mortgage lending business since Oct-2009 to safeguard financial stability
18
-
200
400
600
800
1 000
1112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 42010 2011 2012 2013
非本地個人買家 Purchase by non-local individuals
非本地公司買家 Purchase by non-local companies
宗數 Number
2012年1月至10月平均宗數 Jan-Oct 2012 average number of transactions
-78%
非本地買家成交宗數 Number of non-local buyers transactions
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 42010 2011 2012 2013
確認人交易 Confirmor
6個月內轉售 Resale within 6 months
6至12個月內轉售 Resale within 6 to 12 months
12至24個月內轉售 Resale within 12 to 24 months
交易宗數 Number of transactions
資料來源:稅務局 Source: Inland Revenue Department.
2010年1月至11月平均宗數 Jan-Nov 2010 average number of transactions
-95%
SSD
短期轉售成交宗數 Number of short-term resale transactions
SSD curbed speculative activities effectively
BSD also stemmed non-local demand
19
-
Supply side measures yielding some positive results
Consent to commence general building and superstructure work
Completions
Medium term supply (end-year)
2009 10 300 7 157 53 000
2010 10 100 13 405 59 000
2011 14 100 9 449 62 000
2012 18 200 10 100 67 000
2013 (F) - 13 600
2014 (F) - 15 800
20
-
21 21
Property market softened after the latest round of demand management measures
住宅價格在三月回軟 Flat prices softened in March
100
110
120
130
140
150
01/12 04/12 07/12 10/12 01/13
指數(一九九七年十月=100) Index (1997 Oct=100)
整體住宅價格指數 Overall residential
price index
70平方米以下住宅價格指數 Residential price index
(less than 70 sq m)
10月 2012
2月 2013
100平方米或以上住宅價格指數 Residential price index
(100 sq m or above)
0
4 000
8 000
2 000
6 000
09/10 01/11 05/11 09/11 01/12 05/12 09/12 01/13
買賣合約數目 Agreements received
交投量縮減 Trading activities dwindled
4月 2013
2010年1月至11月平均數 2010 Jan-Nov average
11月 2011
10月 2012
2月 2013
1
1
-
22 22
Mortgage payment to income ratio worsened further
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 130
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
供款與收入比率^Repayment-income ratio^ (%)
1993-2012年平均值(1993-2012 average)
註︰ (^) 45平方米單位的按揭供款(假設按揭成數為70%及年期為20年) 相對住戶入息中位數 (不包括居於公營房屋的住戶) 的比率。Note : (^) The ratio of mortgage payment for a flat with saleable area of 45 sq m (assuming 70% loan-to-value ratio and tenor of 20 years) to median income
of households (excluding those living in public housing).
負擔較輕More
Affordable
負擔較重Less
Affordable2013年第一季 : 56
2013Q1 : 56
-
23 23
Outlook for the remaining of 2013
-
US economy, while expanding moderately, was unsteady at times
24
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
美國實質國內
生產總值
US real GDP
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13
環比折年增減率(%)Annualised rate of change (%)
指數
Index
美國供應管理協會
非製造業生產指數
US ISM non-manufacturing Index
美國供應管理協會
製造業生產指數
US ISM manufacturing Index
-
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
60
80
100
120
1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13
指數
Index
歐元區綜合採購
經理指數(右標線)
Euro Area Composite PMI
(RHS)
歐元區經濟信心指數
(左標線)
Euro Area economicsentimental indicator (LHS)
Europe mired in recession
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12
按季實質增減率 (%)Q-t-q rate of change in real terms (%)
歐元區國內生產總值
Euro Area GDP
25
-
Other Asian economies also dragged by the lull in the advanced economies
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
韓國
Korea台灣
Taiwan新加坡
Singapore
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
韓國
Korea台灣
Taiwan新加坡
Singapore
以美金計價按年增減率(%)Year-on-year rate of change in US$ terms (%)
按年實質增減率(%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
國內生產總值
Gross domestic product貨物出口
Exports of goods
26
-
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
1/07 7/07 1/08 7/08 1/09 7/09 1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12 1/13 7/130
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1/10 4/10 7/1010/101/11 4/11 7/1110/111/12 4/12 7/1210/121/13
按年增減率(%)Year-on-year rate of change (%)
按年增減率(%)Year-on-year rate of change (%)
中國內地固定資產投資
Mainland China's fixed assets investment
中國內地社會消費品
零售實質總額
Mainland China's retail sales of consumer goods in real terms
中國內地製造業採購經理指數
- 新出口訂單(左標線,前移五個月)Mainland China's manufacturing PMI
- new export orders (LHS, shifted forward by 5 months)
中國內地出口(右標線)Mainland China's
exports (RHS)
滙豐中國製造業
採購經理指數
(左標線,前移五個月)HSBC China
manufacturing PMI (LHS, shifted forward
by 5 months)
指數
Index
27 27
Mainland’s external trade remained volatile, but domestic demand was still solid
20.7%
11.7%
48.6
50.4
14.7%
-
28 28
Global growth forecast for 2013
2013年亞洲新興工業化經濟體的經濟增長預測是根據國際貨幣基金會對個別經濟體的增長預測計算出來的。 Economic growth forecast for Asia NIEs in 2013 is calculated based on IMF’s growth forecast on individual economies.
註︰ Note :
3.2
2.2
-0.6
7.8
6.6
1.7
3.3
1.9
-0.3
8.0 7.1
2.8
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
年度實質增減率 (%)Annual rate of change in real terms (%)
美國
US歐元區
Eurozone中國內地
Mainland 全球
World發展中亞洲
Developing Asia亞洲新興
工業化經濟體
Asia NIEs
國際貨幣基金組織2013年經濟增長預測IMF forecasts for 2013 economic growth2012年經濟增長
2012 economic growth
2013年4月預測Apr 2013 forecast
2013年1月預測Jan 2013 forecast
-
29 29
H.K. economy forecast to grow by 1.5-3.5% in 2013
-8-6-4-202468
101214
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(預測)
(Forecast)
實質增減率 (%)Rate of change in real terms (%)
本地生產總值
Gross Domestic Product
十年趨勢增長
10-year trend growth (2003-2012) 1.5-3.5%
-
30 30
Food inflation to remain tame Imported inflation is receding
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
01/08 01/09 01/10 01/11 01/12 01/13
按年增減率 (%) Year-on-year rate of change (%)
%
% %
2.6%
消費物價指數-基本食品 CCPI - basic foodstuffs
內地消費物價指數-食品 Mainland CPI - food
4.0%
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
進口價格 Import price
食品進口價格 Import price of foodstuffs
消費品進口價格 Import price of consumer goods
按年增減率 (%) Year-on-year rate of change (%)
1.1
2.01.8
-
-5
0
5
10
15
Q11999
Q12000
Q12001
Q12002
Q12003
Q12004
Q12005
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
按年增減率 (%) Year-on-year rate of change (%)
5.1% 5.9%
名義工資指數 Nominal wage index
名義就業人士平均薪金指數 Nominal index of payroll per person engaged
31 31
Wage pressure eased somewhat
-
1/07 1/09 1/11 1/13-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
按年增減率 (%) Year-on-year rate of change (%)
基本綜合消費物價指數 - 私人房屋租金(右標線)
Underlying CCPI - Private housing rental (RHS)
新簽訂住宅租金 (24月移動平均數) (左標線) Fresh letting residential rental (24 months moving average)
(LHS)
32 32
Fresh letting rentals softening visibly of late
In the near term inflation still affected by the lagged effect of rising residential rental last year
Fresh letting residential rentals % change over 3 months ago
2012 Mar -1.1
Jun 6.0
Sep 3.6
Dec 2.4
2013 Mar 0.2
-
Q12002
Q12003
Q12004
Q12005
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
-25
0
25
50
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change (%)
Q12002
Q12003
Q12004
Q12005
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
-25
0
25
50
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change (%)
Q12002
Q12003
Q12004
Q12005
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
-25
0
25
50
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change (%)
名義經濟增長 (四季移動平均, 左標線)
Nominal economic growth (4QMA, LHS)
寫字樓租金成本(右標線) Office rental cost(RHS)
Q12002
Q12003
Q12004
Q12005
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-12
-6
0
6
12
18
24
30按年增減率 (%) Year-on-year rate of change (%)
零售總額 (四季移動平均, 左標線)
Retail sales value (4QMA, LHS)
商舖租金成本(右標線) Shop rental cost(RHS)
33 33
Rise in office rental receding…
…shop rental still elevated, but also with slightly tapered rise recently
-
-4
0
4
8
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
基本綜合消費物價指數
Underlying CCPI
按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change (%)
整體綜合消費物價指數
Headline CCPI
(預測)(Forecast)
4.5% 4.2%
34 34
Room for further easing in inflation limited; inflation expected to edge up in coming months
-
35 35
Latest economic forecasts for 2013 as a whole
Forecasts as released on 27 February Latest forecasts
Real GDP growth 1.5-3.5% 1.5-3.5%
Headline inflation 4.5% 4.5%
Underlying inflation 4.2% 4.2%
-
36
Thank you
PresentationEconomic performance in 2013 Q1 External sector Domestic sector Labour market Inflation Local property market Outlook for the remaining of 2013