Sunflowerseeds market in Russia: season 2015/16 Trade and Trends
Gritsai Anton, EFKO Group
Russia
EFKO-Trade LLC grain & oil
export/import tel./fax: +7(863)300-11-39/40/38 [email protected]
www.efko.ru
EFKO Group: outlook
Обзор деятельности ГК ЭФКО
Results of 2014: outlook
EFKO’s Infrastructure, 2015
The largest holding in Eurasian Economic Community oils and fats market
Belgorod Oilseeds crush – 747 tsnd.tons
Export of packaged sunoil –17 tsnd.tons Export of crude sunoil in bulk – 209 tsnd.tons
Yoghurt
Industrial
fats– 471 tsnd.tons
Mayonnaise –
123 tsnd.tons
Ketchup – 9 tsnd.tons
R&D
More than 10 thousand employees Vertically integrated business model
Voronezh
Taman Rostov-on-Don
Saratov
Krasnodar
Interior silos
Oilseed crushing plants
Three oilseed crushing plants have total crushing capacity 1,5 mln.tn per year Oil production – 0,5 mln.mts per year Meal production – 0,8 mln.mts per year 10interior silos with total capacity of 1 million tons of grain
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EFKO Group in EEC Market* Группа ЭФКО на рынке ЕАЭС*
Industrial fats market
#1
6% EFKO
20% NMZHK + DW
SolPro
35% 10%
Cargill
Soyuz
5%
Others
25%
Market of mayonnaise
#1-2 15% 3%
EFKO
Essen production
15% 14% Unilever
4% 12%
NMZHK
SolPro
3%
KZHK
29%
5% Rusagro
Others
EFC
Market of packaged sunflower oil
#2
32%
EFKO Yug Rusi
8% EFC SolPro
4%
2%
3% Cargill Bunge
36% 9% Aston Others
6%
Export of sunoil
#3 EFKO Yug Rusi
15% 23%
Aston
SolPro
12%
Artis
Rusagro
11%
25% 8% Others
6%
____________________ *Евразийский Экономический Союз 3 Eurasian Economic Union
Sunflowerseeds supply and demand in Russia: forecast for 2015/16
Прогноз баланса семян подсолнечника в России в сезоне 2015/16
2013/14 2014/2015 2015/2016 (forecast) , tsnd mts , %
Opening stocks 85 213 52 -161 -75,59%
Production (clean weight) 9 822 8 727 9114 387 4,43%
Import 35 96 100 4 4,17%
Export 109 39 20 -19 -48,72%
Crush 9 320 8 795 8 966 171 1,94%
Other use 300 150 200 50 33,33%
Ending stocks 213 52 80 28 53,85%
Supply to demand ratio, % 102,19% 100,58% 100,87%
250 102,50%
200 102,00%
150 101,50%
100 101,00%
100,50%
50
100,00%
0 99,50%
2013/14 2014/2015 2015/2016 (forecast)
Ending Stocks Supply to demand ratio, %
Russian sunflowerseeds and rapeseeds crop in 2015/16
Russian Federation SFS gross crop RS gross crop Total
9 794 1 150 10 944
Central FD 2 682 308 2 990
Southern FD 2 715 52 2 767
Volga Region 3 467 193 3 660
North Caucasian FD 312 79 391
Others FD 618 519 1 137
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Sunflower seed oil supply and demand in Russia: forecast for 2015/16
Прогноз баланса подсолнечного масла в России в сезоне 2015/16
2013/14 2014/2015 2015/2016 (forecast) , tsnd mts , %
Opening stocks 215 139 201 62 45%
Production 3 961 3 739 3 855 116 3%
Import 10 1 1 0 0%
Export (crude sunoil) 1 435 1046 1 260 214 17%
Domestic consumption 2 612 2 632 2 625 -2 0%
Ending stocks 139 201 172 -29 -14%
Supply to demand ratio, % 103,43% 105,46% 104,43%
250 106,00%
200
105,00%
150
104,00%
100
50
103,00%
0
102,00%
2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/16 (forecast)
Ending stocks Supply to demand ratio, %
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Russian oilseeds crush capacity utilization
Загруженность мощностей по переработке масличных культур в РФ
тыс. т 83% 69% 91% 77% 11 200 – gross harvest of oilseeds in Russia, 16 000 13 800
13 800 14 500
13 800 tsnd tons.
14 000
12 500
12 000 11 400 sunflowerseed
11 200
rapeseed
10 000 9 500
8 000 linseed
6 000 others
10 554
4 000 9 697 9 034 Oilseeds crush capacity in Russia,
7 993
tsnd tons
2 000
77% - oilseeds crush capacity utilization
0
in Russia
11/12 МГ 12/13 МГ 13/14 МГ 14/15 МГ
Forecast of capacity allocation in Federal Districts of Russia in 2015/16
Forecast of sunflower and rapeseed gross harvest allocation in Federal Districts of Russia in 2015/16.
North-Western FD Sunflowerseed Rapeseed
2% Ural FD OTHERS 1% УФО 1%
Siberian FD 0,5%
4% Siberian FD 4% OTHERS
North-W FD 9%
Central FD 27% Southern FD11%
Ural FD 12%
Volga FD
Southern FD
20% Volga FD 17%
16 100 43% 11 000 1 150
Southern FD 9 794
tsnd.tons tsnd.tons
Siberian FD 23%
31%
Central FD Central FD 27%
31% Volga FD 35%
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Обеспеченность переработчиков подсолнечником в 2015/2016 МГ
в разрезе федеральных округов РФ Sunflowerseeds crush capacity utilization in the crop year 2015/2016, regional statistics
North-Western
Region
Central Region
4 942
56%
2 754 Volga Region
3 157 88%
2 770
6 877 Southern
Region
47% 3 203
New crushing capacities to launch in 2015/16
Capacities, tsnd mts Russian Federation 1 624 000 Central FD 504 000
Lipetsk region
Terbuny 384 000
Tambov Region
Maksimovskiy Plant 120 000
Southern FD 640 000
Volgograd Region
Cargill’s ‘Novoanninskiy’ Plant 640 000
Volga FD 480 000 Orenburg region
Sorochinskiy Plant 384 000
Samara region
Yakushinskoe Oil LLC 96 000
Oilseeds crush capacity, tsnd. mts Sunflowerseeds crush capacity utilization, tsnd. mts
Мо
56% Sunflowerseeds crush capacity utilization, %
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Top-10 Russian crude sunflower seed oil exporters Рейтинг экспортеров подсолнечного масла из России
2013/14 % 2014/15 %
1 Aston 270776 18,8% 242031 23,1% 4,70% 300000
18,8%
2 Yug Rusi 239843 16,70% 158069 15,1% -1,26%
16,7% 17.1%
250000
3 EFKO
244718 17,1% 123230 11,8% -4,96% 23,1%
4 SolPro 119925 8,4% 117737 11,3% 3,10% 200000
5 Artis 126441 8,8% 79445 7,6% -1,04%
6 Rusagro 124708 8,7% 61195 5,9% -2,68% 150000 15,1%
7 Glencore 59452 4,1% 47274 4,5% 0,47% 8,4% 8,8% 8,7%
11,8%
8 NMZHK 71539 5% 40222 3,8% -1,04% 100000
11,3% 10%
9 Kernel 73146 5,1% 36478 3,3% -1,52%
7,6%
4,1% 5% 5.1%
5%
10 Sodruzhestvo 32923 2,3% 27408 2,6% 0,38% 50000 5,9%
4,5% 3,8% 3,3% 2,3% 2,6%
Others 71258 5% 104237 10% 3,85%
1 434 729 100% 1 046 326 100% 0
Aston Yug Rusi EFKO SolPro Artis Rusagro Glencore NMZHK Kernel Sodruzhestvo Others
2013/14 2014/15
Total Russian SFO export in 2013/14 and 2014/15
Совокупный экспорт подсолнечного масла из России в 2013/14 и 2014/15 200 000 180 000 160 000 140 000 120 000 100 000 80 000 60 000
40 000 20 000
0 September October November December January February March April May June July August
2014/15 2013/14
Source: custom and port statistics 8
Топ-10 импортеров подсолнечного масла из России
Top-10 importers of Russian crude sunflowerseed oil
Crop 2013-14 – Custom statistics
Country Quantity, thous. mts % 1 Turkey 528 42% 2 Egypt 425 34% 3 EU 88 7% 4 Iran 53 4%
86% of the total Russian
export 1% 2% 1% 2%
3% 3%
Turkey Egypt EU Iran
5 Saudi Arabia + UAE 43 3% 6 Kazakhstan 39 3% 7 Azerbaijan 30 2% 8 Sudan 28 2% 9 Lebanon 11 1%
10 Morocco 8 1% Total: 1 253 100%
4%
7%
42%
Saudi Arabia / UAE Kazakhstan Aserbaijan
34% Sudan
Lebanon Morocco
Crop 2014-15 – Custom and port statistics
Country Quantity, thous. mts % 1 Turkey 573 60% 2 Egypt 136 14% 3 Kazakhstan 61 6% 4 Sudan 51 5% 5 Azerbaijan 35 4% 6 Saudi Arabia 35 4% 7 Iran 33 3% 8 China 21 2% 9 Tajikistan 7 1%
10 Oman 6 1% Total: 958 100%
91,6% of the total Russian export 1%
1% 3% 2%
4%
4%
5%
6%
60%
14%
Turkey Egypt
Kazakhstan Sudan
Azerbaijan Saudi Arabia
Iran China
Tajikistan Oman
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Ставки импортных и экспортных пошлин на семена масличных Russian oilseeds: import and export taxation rates
Изменение уровня ставок импортных и экспортных пошлин в соответствии с обязательствами России при присоединении к ВТО
Russian oilseeds export taxes reduction according to WTO trading rules
On the agreement date As from 01.09.2013, As from 01.09.2014, As from 01.09.2015, As from 01.09.2016, end
(August, 2012) transition period transition period transition period of transition period Soya beans 20 13,33 6,67 0 0
Rape seeds 20 15 11 9 6,5
Sunflower seeds 20 16,62 13,24 9,88 6,5
10 10
Conclusions
Sunflowerseeds crop forecast in the crop year 2015-16 is 9.1 mln mts (+387 tsnd mts vs 2014/15)
Despite sunflowerseeds export tax reduction down to 9.88% we do not expect the seeds export to pick up due to a deficit of domestic crush capacity utilization resulting in higher domestic prices vs export prices
Crude sunflowerseed oil output forecast in the crop year 2015-16 is 3,8 mln mts (+ 116 tsnd mts vs 2014/15)
Crude sunflowerseed oil export forecast in the crop year 2015-16 is 1260 mln mts (+214 tsnd mts vs 2014/15)
Russian domestic sunflowerseeds crush capacity utilization remains deficit as crop rise will not offset the increase of the crush capacity (387 thous. mts vs 1.6 mln mts). Domestic sunflowerseeds origination competition remains tough and stimulate higher domestic prices
Turkey, Egypt and Arab countries will remain importers of Russian sunflowerseed oil
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Thank you for your attention
EFKO-Trade LLC grain & oil export/import
tel./fax: +7(863)300-11-39/40/38
www.efko.ru
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