dr rv ahilan th march 2018 · 2018-05-14 · loc group marine and ... •piers needed to meet the...

Dr RV Ahilan

20th March 2018

ONE PARTNER. WORLDWIDE SUPPORT一个合作伙伴。国际资源支持

LOC Group

Marine and Engineering Consultants

Established 1979

成立

400+ staff

员工

30 offices

办事处

Oil & Gas

能源

Shipping

航运

Renewables

新能源

• Established 1979 建立于1979年

• Premier marine warranty surveying firm in O&G 海上石油天然气领域主要的海事保险检验人

• No.1 marine warranty surveying firm with >30 Offshore wind farms warranted 为超过30个海上风电场执行过海事保险检验，市场份额第一

• Design engineers and analysts on >30 OWFs through sister company Longitude 通过全资子公司Longitude为超过30个海上风电项目提供过独立计算和设计服务

• Just completed the Infrastructure & Logistics scope for the Carbon Trust Floating Wind JIP for 500MW Farm. 刚刚完成了Carbon Trust Floating Wind JIP 500兆瓦的基础设施和物流范围

• Currently running the MWS on one of the largest FIDs ($37bn) taken in 2016.正在进行2016年最大的海事保险检验项目。

• Design and consultancy spanning sky to seabed in offshore wind 离岸上风电项目全套完善服务（从天空到海床的设计和咨询）

Contracting Financing and Constructiing Offshore Wind Farms - Key

Lessons Learned - Taipei - 20 March 2018

2

The Panel 專家組

Liu Ying-Ru, President, CR Classification Society

Dr Tim Camp, Director, Turbine Engineering, LOC Renewables

Tonni Bager, Principal Consultant, Head of Construction, COP

Nicolas Cazeres, Managing Director, Longitude Engineering Singapore

Koen van der Perk, Senior Vice President Commercial, Seaway Heavy Lifting

Three themes to be discussed in the Panel:專家組將討論的三個主題

Cost and technology trends & transfer of

technology

Infrastructure, logistical challenges

and interfaces

Design challenges Taiwan vs rest of the

world

LCOE/Price Trend 價格趨勢

[1] IRENA (2018), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi

[2] https://loc-group.com/renewables/news/cfd-awards-dramatic-impact-of-scale-competition-and-finance-on-offshore-wind-energy/



5

Cost reduction pointers 降低成本的指針

[1] https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability-and-resource-productivity/our-insights/winds-of-change-why-offshore-

wind-might-be-the-next-big-thing

Turbine Technology Trends 風力發電機組科技的發展趨勢

Turbines

HAWT

Drivetrains

Scale

Downwind

VAWT

Yaw Bearings

Deck Level Gearbox

Item Units

TURBINE Rating 6MW 10MW

Rated Power MW 6 10

Air Density t/m^3 1.22E-03 1.22E-03

Rotor Diameter m 154 178 206 218

Swept Area m^2 18627 24969 33354 37407

Rated Wind Speed m/s 11.4 11.4

Max Rotor Speed RPM 11 9 8 7.5

Hub Height m 100 119 133 139

Number of Upwind Blades 3 3 3 3

Control VSIP VSIP VSIP VSIP

Drivetrain Direct Gearbox

Rotor mass t 160 231 303 333

Tower Top Mass t 560 677 733 858

Nacelle Mass t 400 446 430 526

Tower Mass t 456 628 1155 1806

Blade Mass t 28 42 66 69

Hub Mass t 76 106 105 125

Overall Mass t 1017 1305 1887 2664

Proposed Design Basis

15

1.22E-03

11.4

Gearbox/Direct

15MW Range

Wind Resource Technology Innovations 風能資源技術創新

Wind Resource

Modelling

Atmospheric & Wake

Modelling

O&G Hindcasts

MeasurementsSatellitte &

LiDAR

Foundation Technology Trends 基礎科技的發展趨勢

Foundations

Fixed

Monopile

Jacket/Tripod

GBS

Floating

Spar

Semi

Barge

TLP

Speed

Turbulence

Scale

2025-30?

Depth

Geotechnics

Natural

Periods



9

Electricity Transmission Technology Trends 輸電科技發展趨勢

Electricity Transmission

Higher Voltage

Dynamic Design

Remote Sensing

Distributed Substations

Cost/Contractual

Installation Trends 安裝趨勢

Installation

Single Unit

Semi, Spar, GBS, Barge

Self Install

Jackup to DPDeeper, Floater, Heavier, Higher

OSP: Floatovervs Modular

Decks

More Installation &

Commissioning

O&M Trends 操作和維護趨勢

O&M

Access vs Remote

CTVs, WTW

SCADA

CBMBig Data,

AI

Crystal Ball 水晶球

Individual

Small

Specialist

Fixed

Physical

Variable

Individual

Medium

Integrated

Fixed

Physical

Variable

Farm

>10MW

Control Integrated

Floating

Remote

Dispatchable

Turbine to Farm Model

Small to Large

Component to System

Shallow to Deep

Inspection

Storage



13

Local Capability according to TWTIA, 2017本地能力根據 TWTIA, 2017

Vessels Infrastructure

• > 2 Wharves needed by 2019

• Piers needed to meet the transportation

demand for foundations

• Wharves needed for daily O&M activities

• Construction vessels

• Turbine components

• Grid connections

• Offshore substations

Claims (Ref: PO223, EWEA Offshore Copenhagen, 2015)索賠(Ref: PO223, EWEA Offshore Copenhagen, 2015)

Warnock, McMillan, Pilgrim and Shenton (2016):

Export cable failure rate is 0.07-0.5 failures/year (50km length);

Lost Production ~ £16m (300MW, 3 months) – this does not even cover the replacement/repair cost



15

Global Capacity Forecast by EY (May 2017)EY全球產能預測 (May 2017)

Countries to drop out of the Top 10 by 2024

Countries to enter Top 10

A Banker’s view additionally

identifying Canada & Poland



16

Observations 觀察

• Cost trends in offshore are already dramatic; comparison with onshore shows we ain’t

finished yet!

• Taiwan set to get into the Top 10 by 2024

• Europe did not get it right first time – witness LCOE trend; Taiwan has an opportunity to

learn from somebody else’s mistakes

• In construction phase the dominant failures have occurred with cables and foundations;

a golden opportunity exists to avoid them through relentless focus on design and

construction

• In O&M, gearbox damage dominate; leapfrogging to larger direct drive turbines could

help?

• Taiwan specific issues – typhoon & earthquakes - need focus and have no precedence

in the European experience

ONE PARTNERWORLDWIDE SUPPORT一个合作伙伴，国际资源支持

www.loc-group.com

Panel Questions 專家提問

1. What key lessons have we learned from designing offshore wind farms form your perspective. Are these lessons easily transferable?

2. Offshore wind in Europe went through a painful learning process with LCOE rising initially – even until 2013 – but seems to have turned the corner. Does Taiwan have to go through the same pain?

3. What lessons have we learned in Europe with respect to construction/installation that we can rapidly transmit? What can we not because of local conditions?

4. We always talk about Typhoons and Earthquakes… what other issues in construction and O&M make it a challenge and an opportunity in Taiwan.

5. Has Taiwan Offshore Wind industry established guidelines for how to deal with typhoons/earthquakes in construction phase even if we have dealt with in-place performance under these conditions? Do we need these?

6. I think scale, competition and finance were keys to unlocking offshore wind costs; In scale, we have technology. Other panels have talked about what we can learn about competitive landscape and finance. What general and Taiwan specific technologies can help us push further, faster

7. Cables have been painful part of OWF – 60%-80% of claims; what recommendations will you make to help Taiwan avoid the same statistics

8. Foundations – the lessons we learned with grouted connections – are they well learned in the specifics as well as the general – that is check for errors in code and don’t extrapolate O&G without thinking?

9. Where do you see the arms race of larger and larger turbines ending up and at what timescale? Gearbox vs DD?

10. What O&M challenges will we face when we have to do major component replacement and having to lift 1000t up 150m?

11. Floating?

12. Final message to our guests today?

dr rv ahilan th march 2018 · 2018-05-14 · loc group marine and ... •piers needed to meet the...

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