economic density: a new perspective of regional economic study in china...

Economic Density: A New Perspective of Regional Economic Study in China

经济密度：中国区域经济研究的新视角

Xin LAO 劳昕Doctoral candidate: Peking University

Visiting Fellow: CGA, Harvard University

CGA seminar series - GIS applications in China Studies

Outline

• Background• Methodology• Results• Conclusions

Background

• Density, distance and division are three key factors of global regional economy development (World Bank Development Report 2009: Reshaping Economic Geography)

• Economic (Activity) Density: The economic development level and economic agglomeration degree per unit area

Outline


Methodology: Framework of Economic Density Study

Origin: Clark(1951)

Theoretical foundation

Monocentric & polycentric

Urban & regionalScales

Spatial scale of research: region, city,

community

Density Model

Mechanism

Impacts

Empirical Research of Econom

ic D

ensityEm

pirical Research of Economic

Density Time-series

Periods of time: evolution process

Methods Econometrics, GIS,

Spatial Statistics, ESDA

IndicatorsVariables and indicators depicting the economic

density

Reveal evolution reasons

Influence on productivity

Further research needed

Theo

retic

al R

esea

rch

of E

cono

mic

D

ensi

tyTh

eore

tical

Res

earc

h of

Eco

nom

ic

Den

sity

理论研究实证研究

密度模型

演化机制

影响效应

研究维度

研究尺度

研究时段

研究方法


Mechanism

Coordination

mechanism

Market

government

Macro driving force

Median driving force

Micro driving force

Economic growth

Industrial structure change

Factor flow (labor, capital and technology)

Endogenous driving force: urbanization

Economic density growth


Category Metrics Empirical researchEconomic density of population

Economic indicators/population

卢忠， 1992 ；王晓明， 1993

Economic density of land

Employment density (labor per unit area)

Ciccone & Robert ， 1996 ；Christopher ， 2003 ； Lourens & Jouke ，2005 ；范剑勇， 2006 ； Fredrik

等， 2007 ； Giorgio &

Francesca ， 2007 ； Marius &

Nicole ， 2008

Output density (output per unit area)

张富刚等， 2005 ；冯玉平等， 2006 ； A.

Grübler 等， 2006 ；陈良文、杨开忠， 2007 ；曹广忠、白晓， 2010

Industry density (secondary and tertiary industry value added and industrial output per unit area)

林坚等， 2008 ；冯科等， 2008 ；何邕健、胡丽， 2008 ；贝涵璐等， 2009 ；罗文斌等， 2010 Indicators

Methodology: study area

• Study area: Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta—most developed and main employment agglomeration regions in China– Indicator: Employment Density– Scale: County Level– Time-series: 2004 and 2008– Methods: Kriging Interpolation, Kernel Density Analysis, Spatial

Autocorrelation Analysis, Employment Mean Center and Standard Deviation Ellipse

• Data: Employment data from the first and second national economic census (2004 and 2008)全国第一、二次经济普查数据

Outline


Results (1): Economic Density Distribution in China

Multi-centralized

多中心化Coast-oriented

沿海化Axis-oriented

轴线化

Empirical Research: Indicators

10%area(20km from the coast) 55%employment


Province

省级Prefecture

地级County

区县级

Empirical Research: Scales

Gradient distribution 梯度格局


Employment mean center

就业重心

Standard deviation ellipse

标准离差椭圆

2004—2008:

Polarized effects

极化效应

Empirical Research: Time-series


Scale Industry 2004 2008

Province

Moran's I of all industries 0.15 0.18

Moran's I of Secondary Industry 0.20 0.22

Moran's I of Tertiary Industry 0.08 0.11

Prefecture




County




Empirical Research: Methods—ESDA


Empirical Research: Methods—ESDA

Results (2): Employment Density Distribution in Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta

Employment Density Spatial Features (Employment Distribution Pattern)

Yangtze River Delta Pearl River Delta

2004 2008

2004

2008

Kriging Interpolation


Employment Density Spatial Features(Employment Center Structure)


2004 2008

2004

2008

Kernel Density Analysis


Employment Density Agglomeration and Diffusion Trends (Spatial Autocorrelation)


2004 2008

2004

2008


Region Yangtze River Delta Pearl River DeltaSpatial Statistics Index 2004 2008 2004 2008

Mean Center (coordinate)

(120.57 ， 31.01) (120.25 ， 31.29)

（ 114.16 ， 22.

98 ）（ 114.15 ， 22.

97 ）SD Ellipse Area （ km2 ） 91586.3 114046.0 56386.3 55072.2

SD Ellipse Long Axis （ km ）

250.4 299.3 233.4 228.7

SD Ellipse Short Axis （ km ）

114.6 119.1 76.9 76.7

Spatial Density Index (person/km2)

388 477 404 563

Employment Density Agglomeration and Diffusion Trends（ Employment Mean

Center Movement and Dispersion Tendency）


Outline


Conclusions

(1) Regional economic patterns in China– Economic density spatial features 空间特征• Gradient distribution 梯度格局• Multi-centralized 多中心化• Coast-oriented 沿海化• Axis-oriented 轴线化

– Economic density evolution 演化特征Agglomeration Effect 集聚效应

Conclusions

(2) Comparison between Yangtze and Pearl River Delta– Similarity

• Employment density cores are mainly located in big cities along the delta coasts 就业密度核心区均集中在三角洲沿岸的重要城市

• Employment density distribution decreased outward from the core area to the fringe 由核心区往外就业密度分布呈圏层结构递减

– Difference• Yangtze River Delta—Monocentric Diffusion 单中心扩散• Pearl River Delta—Polycentric Agglomeration 多中心集聚

Conclusions

(2) Comparison between Yangtze and Pearl River Delta– Employment center structure

• Yangtze——Government-oriented 政府主导• Pearl——Market-oriented 市场主导

– Influence scope of core employment area• Yangtze——Location merit and regional integration strategy

区位优势和区域一体化政策• Pearl——Highly concentrated economic distribution nearby

Hong Kong 临近香港的高度集中的经济空间格局

Thanks!Questions and comments are welcome!

Xin [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

economic density: a new perspective of regional economic study in china...

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