重塑能源：中国

TIAN ZHIYU

ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, NDRC, CHINA

23 JUNE 2016

REINVENTING FIRE: CHINAA ROADMAP FOR CHINA’S REVOLUTION OF ENERGY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION TO 2050

REINVENTING FIRE FROM THE US

● Mapping pathways for running a 158%-bigger U.S. economy in 2050 but needing no oil, no coal, and no nuclear energy.

● Overall, a $4.5-trillion extra investment would save $9.5 trillion, for a 2010-net-present-valued saving of $5 trillion during 2010–2050

● A detailed blueprint for using the best existing technologies to unleash the enormous economic potential of the coming energy revolution

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• 2+ years of scientific research

• 4 partner joint US-China research team

• Analyzed cost-effective technology opportunities

• Created solutions roadmap

2050 Vision

China meets its energy needs and improves its energy security and

environmental quality by deploying the maximum feasible share of cost-effective energy efficiency and renewable supply

through 2050

A ROADMAP FOR CHINA’S REVOLUTION IN THE CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION OF ENERGY

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4

VISIONS AND GOALS OF REINVENTING FIRE: CHINA

Meet energy demand of a comprehensive modernized country

Achieve Chinese Dream and two centenary goals

Reach level of moderately developed country of 2050

Resolve resource, environmental and ecological constraints

Reduce current haze pollution

Realize long-term blue sky, green fields, beautiful

landscape and clean water

Contribute actively to mitigating climate change

Reach a early peak of carbon dioxide emission

Reduce carbon emission continuously after early peak

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MODELING TOOLS AND APPROACH

• Modeling and accounting tool used across four sectors and driven by macro assumptions

• Bottom-up and top-down methodologies based on activity, intensity, supply, and conversion

• Also includes production and resource extraction

• Adopted by 1000s of organizations in more than 190 countries

• Province level least-cost dispatch modeling• Ability to handle emerging tech, trends, and

learning• Can shape load curve with demand side management• Hourly resolution through 2050 time horizon

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INTERACTIONS AND FEEDBACK LOOPS BETWEEN SECTORS

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CASE STUDIES

B1. “Passive building” – Qinhuangdao, HebeiProvince

Introduction:Topic: Saving energy through passive designDeveloper: Qinhuangdao Wuxing Real Estate Development Co. and MOHURD-German government joint demo projectLocation: Qinhuangdao, China (cold climate)

SummaryThis community has 9 demonstrating buildings with an area of 80, 344 square meters. C15 is the first building that uses German passive building standard, it has 18 floors with an area of 6,467 m2. It was built in Qinhuangdao and some other project are still under construction in other places. The technologies applied in this project include: passive design and technologies integration; Good envelope thermal integrity; High performance air-tightness; dedicated outdoor air system (DOAS) for ventilation.

Left: the bird view of this project; Right: the real view of the project

Details…

• Case studies show real world implementation of key technologies and design opportunities in each of the four sectors

• Case study details are used to help calibrate model assumptions

• Team has documented over 80 global “best” and “next” practice examples of clean energy leadership

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RIGOROUS AND INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS TO IDENTIFY A LOW CARBON PATHWAY

Chinese economy increases 6 times by 2050

Using about the same amount of energy as today

Yielding 42% reduction in CO2 emissions from 2010

6× GDP

+1% Primary Energy

Over half from non-fossil energy

57% non-emitting*

-42% CO2 emission

100%Technically feasible, cost-effective and socially acceptable

¥22 Trillion net benefit

Requires ¥46 Trillion investment for ¥68 Trillionbenefit, excluding environmental gains

• Primary electricity converted using coal power plant equivalent, in accordance with China’s pledged target；• 35% if using direct equivalent method (consistent with IPCC)

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PARADIGM SHIFT: FROM OLD FIRE TO NEW FIRE

Decoupling due to improving energy efficiency

High penetration of low carbon energy

2050RF2050Ref2010

-47%Nuclear

Coal

Oil & Gas

Hydro

WindSolar

2050RF

100%

2050Ref

Primary Energy DemandMtce

Primary Energy DemandMtce

3367

6389

4726

3397

5%

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REINVENTING FIRE SO2 AND NOX

REDUCTIONS OVER TIME

Energy-Related Sulfur Dioxide and Nitrogen Oxides Air Emissions 10,000 Metric Tons

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

SO2

NOx

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

COAL (Mtce)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

PR

IMA

RY

EN

ER

GY

U

SE

(M

tce

)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CA

RB

ON

DIO

XID

E

EM

ISS

ION

S (

MtC

O2)

Reference Scenario Coal Peaks in 2034 at 3,990 Mtce

Reference Scenario Primary Energy Peaks in 2039 at 6,990 Mtce

Reinventing Fire Primary Energy Peaks in 2034 at 4,670 Mtce

Reference Scenario CO2 Peaks in 2036 at 14,610 MT CO2

Reinventing Fire CO2 Peaks in 2025 at 9,590 MT CO2

Reinventing Fire Scenario Coal Peaks in 2020 at 2,880 Mtce

COAL USE

CO2 EMISSIONS

PRIMARY ENERGY USE*

* Primary electricity converted using the direct equivalent method (consistent with IPCC). Source: Reinventing Fire: China team analysis.

CHINA’S THREE PEAKS

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Electrification rate

NEW ERA OF ELECTRICITY

18%21%

23%26%

29%32%

35%38%

41%

0%

13%

25%

38%

50%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Electrification rate from 18% to 41%, higher than EU in 2050

83% of electricity production from non-fossil energy

69% of electricity production from renewable energy

RF Power Generated by Fuel TypeTWh

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Biomass

Geothermal

Solar PG

Hydro

Wind PG

Nuclear

NGCC

Diesel

Coal ME 1000MWCoal ME 600 to1000 MW

13

3,370

6390

3,400

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2010 2050 Reference Industry Buildings Transportation Transformation 2050 RF

Indirect Transformation Savings

Direct Sectoral Savings

Primary Energy and Savings (IPCC)Mtce

2050 SECTOR REDUCTION OPPORTUNITIES

Indirect transformation savings allocated to end use sectors

• Structural shift

• Production demand reduction

• Energy efficiency

• Decarbonization

• Building industrialization

• Integrative and passive design

• Superefficient equipment and appliances

• Smart systems• Clean energy

technologies

• Activity reduction

• Structure optimization

• Fuel switching• Efficiency

improvement

• Efficient, clean and flexible central generation

• Distributed, efficient and clean power generation, utilization and storage

• Smart grid

-54%

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INVESTMENT AND SAVINGS TO PRODUCE REINVENTING FIRE RESULT

• Accounts for “hard” costs and benefits: upfront capital, ongoing operations, and maintenance costs

• Excludes external costs such as the costs of pollution or public health; also excludes transaction or program costs

• Shows that China can realize the Reinventing Fire Scenario at a profit; an upfront cost of 46 Trillion RMB secures 68 Trillion RMB in savings, with 22 Trillion RMB NPV

• Highlights opportunity for markets to support investment in helping drive the transformation, supplementing traditional government policies

Economic results

Note: Transformation costs and benefits are embedded in demand sectors through fuel prices

Net Present Value to Chinese EconomyTrillion RMB

-60

-40

-20

-

20

40

60

80

Cost Fuel Savings Net

Transportation Industry Buildings

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OVERALL ROADMAP OF REINVENTING FIRE: CHINA

Develop staged strategic targets and tasks

Pre 2020: resolve environmental pollution problems

2020-2030: reach a early peak of carbon dioxide emission

2030-2050: high penetration development of non-fossil

energy

Clarify sector pathways and key tasks

Industry to reach a early, low peak, and then

continuously reduce energy use

Building and transportation to rein in growth rates, and

reach early peaks

Development pattern shifts from past 35 years to next 35

years

1980-2015: economic expansion due to Open-up and Reform

2015-2050: economic upgrade towards Reinventing Fire

vision

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OVERALL ROADMAP

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INDUSTRY ROADMAP

2010-2020: Reach an early peak through stock upgrade and incremental capacity control2020-2030: Scale up ecological industrial parks and integrative factories2030-2050: Fundamental reform with intelligent technologies

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BUILDING ROADMAP

2010-2020: Transform urbanization pattern, improve standards

system

2020-2030: Promote ultra-low energy building

2030-2050: Reach high-efficient, clean and intelligent energy use

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TRANSPORTATION ROADMAP

2010-2020: Accelerate development of public transit system, and

upgrade fuel economy standards remarkably

2020-2030: Infrastructure system centering on railway and public

transit, with electric vehicles widely adopted

2030-2050: Modernize transportation system to world-class

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ELECTRICITY ROADMAP

2010-2020: Upgrade coal-fire plants, reaching an early pollutants emission

peak

2020-2030: Reach early peak of carbon through rapid deployment of non-

fossil power plants

2030-2050: Construct a modernized, low-carbon, smart electricity system

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KEY CONCLUSIONS AND OVERALL RECOMMENDATIONS

Launch Reinventing Fire Strategy to facilitate low-carbon

transformation

Expand energy efficiency as the First Fuel

Facilitate technology advancement to improve energy

productivity by 6 times, carbon productivity by 13 times

Promote development of electrified, low-carbon energy system

Promote Integrative design and upgrade infrastructure

Facilitate commercial innovation and build dynamic markets

Unleash reform and ecological dividend through institutional

transformation

重塑能源：中国

THANK YOU

TIAN Zhiyu

tianzy@eri.org.cn