energy, environment, and industrial development frederick h. abernathy michael b. mcelroy lecture 9...

Energy, Environment, and Industrial Development

Frederick H. AbernathyFrederick H. Abernathy Michael B. McElroyMichael B. McElroy

Lecture 9Lecture 9

March 6, 2006March 6, 2006


Figure 3.1 The radiation budget of Earth’s surface-atmosphere system. Source: Peixoto and Oort 1992


Classification of terrestrial ecosystems1.1. Tundra. No trees, grasses, mosses, lichens. Low Tundra. No trees, grasses, mosses, lichens. Low

rainfall, low temperaturesrainfall, low temperatures2.2. Taiga or boreal forests. Dominated by conifers – Taiga or boreal forests. Dominated by conifers –

spruces, firs, larches, pines. Trees less than 30m high. spruces, firs, larches, pines. Trees less than 30m high. Covers much of Canada and Northern EurasiaCovers much of Canada and Northern Eurasia

3.3. Temperate deciduous forests. Maples, beeches, oak. Temperate deciduous forests. Maples, beeches, oak. Source of hardwood. China, Japan, western Europe, Source of hardwood. China, Japan, western Europe, United States, southern CanadaUnited States, southern Canada

4.4. Temperate rain forests. Moderate temperatures and Temperate rain forests. Moderate temperatures and high precipitation. Redwoods, Douglas firs, western high precipitation. Redwoods, Douglas firs, western cedars. Western US, western New Zealandcedars. Western US, western New Zealand

5.5. Temperate woodlands. Temperature similar to Temperate woodlands. Temperature similar to deciduous forests but drier. New England to Georgia. deciduous forests but drier. New England to Georgia. Parts of CaribbeanParts of Caribbean

6.6. Temperate shrub lands. Dry, temperate, low stature, Temperate shrub lands. Dry, temperate, low stature, chaparralchaparral


Classification of terrestrial ecosystems7.7. Temperate grasslands. Regions too dry for Temperate grasslands. Regions too dry for

forests. North American prairies, steppes of forests. North American prairies, steppes of Eurasia, pampas of Argentina. Fire and Eurasia, pampas of Argentina. Fire and grazing necessary for persistence of grassesgrazing necessary for persistence of grasses

8.8. Tropical rain forests. High average Tropical rain forests. High average temperature relatively constant over year. temperature relatively constant over year. High, frequent, rainfall. Amazon basin, High, frequent, rainfall. Amazon basin, Indonesia, Malaysia. Indonesia, Malaysia.

9.9. Tropical seasonal forests and savannas. Tropical seasonal forests and savannas. High relatively constant average High relatively constant average temperature. Abundant, but seasonal, temperature. Abundant, but seasonal, rainfall. Savannas dominate at lower rainfall. rainfall. Savannas dominate at lower rainfall.

10.10. Deserts. Rainfall < 0.5m/yearDeserts. Rainfall < 0.5m/year


http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/glcc/gifs.asp


Spring, Feb. 21-Apr. 21, 2001 Summer, May 21-Jun. 21, 2000

Fall, Aug 21-Oct. 21, 2000 Winter, Nov 21- Jan. 21, 2001

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/EVI_LAI_FPAR/


Perfectly dry wood (0% moisture) can provide as Perfectly dry wood (0% moisture) can provide as much as 8660 BTU/lbmuch as 8660 BTU/lb

Live wood contains a large amount of H2O. Even Live wood contains a large amount of H2O. Even when well seasoned, the moisture content is when well seasoned, the moisture content is significant ~ 20%significant ~ 20%

Significant heat is expended to evaporate the Significant heat is expended to evaporate the water content of the wood and to raise its water content of the wood and to raise its temperature to the typical stack gas temperature temperature to the typical stack gas temperature (~ 400 F). Energy required to evaporate 1 lb of (~ 400 F). Energy required to evaporate 1 lb of water = 1050 BTUwater = 1050 BTU

A realistic estimate of the energy available from A realistic estimate of the energy available from well seasoned wood is about 6050 BTU/lb or well seasoned wood is about 6050 BTU/lb or 13,367 BTU/kg13,367 BTU/kg

Approximately half of the wood is represented by Approximately half of the wood is represented by carbon. Thus, energy available is 12,100 BTU (lb carbon. Thus, energy available is 12,100 BTU (lb C)C)-1-1 or 26,734 BTU (kgC ) or 26,734 BTU (kgC )-1-1 = 2.67x10 = 2.67x1044 BTU BTU (kgC )(kgC )-1-1


The The photosynthetic processphotosynthetic process may be represented as Light + CO2 + H2O CH2O + O2

Respiration (or decay) describes the reverse process CH2O + O2 CO2 + H2O + energy

Gross uptake of C by photosynthesis at Harvard Forest today amounts to about 11 tons C ha-1 yr-1. 1 hectare (ha) = 2.47 acres

Most of the carbon taken up is respired. Only about 25% is converted to organic matter, half of which is above ground, half below. This constitutes the net uptake.

Carbon available for sustainable harvest: tons C ha-1 yr-1 = 1.4 tons C ha-1 yr-1 11

4

1

2

1


Abernathy estimated that in 1800 people used Abernathy estimated that in 1800 people used about 5.5 cords of wood per person per year. about 5.5 cords of wood per person per year.

Energy content of a cord he took as 20x10Energy content of a cord he took as 20x1066 BTUBTU

Implies energy use per person per year of 5.5 x Implies energy use per person per year of 5.5 x 20 x1020 x1066 BTU = 110 x10 BTU = 110 x1066 BTU BTU

Carbon required to supply this energy Carbon required to supply this energy

Each person required 4.1 metric tons of C per Each person required 4.1 metric tons of C per year, equivalent to about 8 metric tons of dry year, equivalent to about 8 metric tons of dry wood or more than 15 tons of wood harvestwood or more than 15 tons of wood harvest

To apply needed carbon by sustainable harvest To apply needed carbon by sustainable harvest each person would need each person would need

kgCxkgCx

x

kgCBTU

BTUx 34

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person 25.7person 93.2 4.1

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Approximately 11% of the total global Approximately 11% of the total global land area is devoted to crops: about land area is devoted to crops: about 15x1015x1066 km km22 = 1.5x10 = 1.5x1099 ha ha

If If allall of this land were devoted to of this land were devoted to sustainable forestry with yields quoted sustainable forestry with yields quoted here, the carbon yield would amount here, the carbon yield would amount to 2.1x10to 2.1x1099 tons C yr tons C yr-1-1

At a consumption rate of 4.1 tons C At a consumption rate of 4.1 tons C (person)(person)-1-1 yr yr-1-1, this could supply 512 , this could supply 512 million peoplemillion people


There are indications that mid-latitudes of There are indications that mid-latitudes of the N. hemisphere are currently the N. hemisphere are currently accumulating carbon at a rate of about accumulating carbon at a rate of about 2x102x1099 tons C yr tons C yr-1-1

Taking the 1800 per capita demand as 4.1 Taking the 1800 per capita demand as 4.1 tons C yrtons C yr-1-1, it follows that this would be , it follows that this would be sufficient to supply (2/4.1) x 10sufficient to supply (2/4.1) x 1099 people or people or 487 million people at the 1800 consumption 487 million people at the 1800 consumption rate. rate.

Current fossil fuel use is about 6x10Current fossil fuel use is about 6x1099 tons C tons C yr yr-1 -1 or about 1 ton C/personor about 1 ton C/person

US consumption per capita is about 4 ton C US consumption per capita is about 4 ton C yryr-1-1 (person) (person)-1-1


Nutritional energy requirement for a typical human Nutritional energy requirement for a typical human 40 kcal 40 kcal dayday-1-1 (kg of body wt) (kg of body wt)-1-1

Energy requirement per unit of body mass for an insect is about Energy requirement per unit of body mass for an insect is about 10x higher than for a human or about 20x higher for a small bird10x higher than for a human or about 20x higher for a small bird

Nutritional energy requirement for a typical 70 kg adult human Nutritional energy requirement for a typical 70 kg adult human

70 x 40 kcal day70 x 40 kcal day-1-1 = 2.8x10 = 2.8x1033 kcal day kcal day-1-1; ; 1 kcal = 4 BTU1 kcal = 4 BTU Nutritional energy requirement for a typical 70 kg adult Nutritional energy requirement for a typical 70 kg adult

1.1x101.1x1044 BTU day BTU day-1-1 1.1x101.1x104 4 x 3.65x10x 3.65x1022 BTU yr BTU yr-1-1 = 4x10 = 4x1066 BTU yr BTU yr-1-1. Allowing for domestic . Allowing for domestic

animal feed animal feed ~ 15 x10 ~ 15 x1066 BTU yr BTU yr-1-1 This compares with the energy demand for wood per person This compares with the energy demand for wood per person

per year in 1800 of 110x10per year in 1800 of 110x1066 BTU BTU Energy/food factor = 28 or ~ 7 allowing for animalsEnergy/food factor = 28 or ~ 7 allowing for animals


Estimate for carbon incorporated globally Estimate for carbon incorporated globally in trees in trees 3x10 3x1099 tons C yr tons C yr-1-1

How many people could this support at How many people could this support at utilization rate in 1800 New England? utilization rate in 1800 New England? About 0.7 billion (3x10About 0.7 billion (3x1099/4.1)/4.1)

Current global consumption of carbon in Current global consumption of carbon in fossil fuel is about 6x10fossil fuel is about 6x1099 ton C/yr, roughly ton C/yr, roughly twice the carbon potentially available from twice the carbon potentially available from treestrees

But, large amount of energy required to But, large amount of energy required to harvest the trees. Plus transportation and harvest the trees. Plus transportation and seasoningseasoning


What is the better economic choice, to grow food or timber? Timber is sold in units of board feetTimber is sold in units of board feet 1 board foot = 1 foot x 12 inches x 1 inch1 board foot = 1 foot x 12 inches x 1 inch Assuming a density of 1 g cmAssuming a density of 1 g cm-3-3, the mass of a , the mass of a

board food is about 0.25 kgboard food is about 0.25 kg Price for softwood: $35~$305/1000 board feet; Price for softwood: $35~$305/1000 board feet;

price for hardwood: $230~$580/1000 board feetprice for hardwood: $230~$580/1000 board feet Take $300/1000 board feet as average Take $300/1000 board feet as average

timber worth $1200/metric tontimber worth $1200/metric ton Rice costs $0.48/lb Rice costs $0.48/lb $1.10/kg $1.10/kg $1100/metric $1100/metric

tonton It would appear that wood and food are It would appear that wood and food are

comparable as investments!comparable as investments!


Wood in English History

England was industrially relatively backward in England was industrially relatively backward in early 1500s. Henry VII built only four ships for early 1500s. Henry VII built only four ships for the Royal Navy during his reign (1485-1509)the Royal Navy during his reign (1485-1509)

Imported salt, iron, dyes, glass and arms from Imported salt, iron, dyes, glass and arms from continentcontinent

Change in 1530s. Concern about Change in 1530s. Concern about Spanish/French intention to depose Henry VIII Spanish/French intention to depose Henry VIII (1509- 1547)(1509- 1547)

Development of arms industry in Sussex. Development of arms industry in Sussex. England is forefront of arms race to 1550England is forefront of arms race to 1550

To produce 1 ton of bar iron required 48 cords To produce 1 ton of bar iron required 48 cords of wood. Beginning of English deforestationof wood. Beginning of English deforestation

A Forest Journey, John Perlin, Harvard Univ. Press, 1991



Prior to Elizabeth I, England’s ships were Prior to Elizabeth I, England’s ships were mostly made elsewhere or were hired.mostly made elsewhere or were hired.

Elizabeth took steps to promote domestic Elizabeth took steps to promote domestic industry. Subsidies for large ships, fishing, industry. Subsidies for large ships, fishing, policies on wine importationpolicies on wine importation

To build a large warship took 2000 oaks To build a large warship took 2000 oaks which had to be more than 100 years old. which had to be more than 100 years old. Increased wood demands for iron, copper, Increased wood demands for iron, copper, glass, construction. Wood becomes scarce.glass, construction. Wood becomes scarce.

James I prescribes permissible uses of James I prescribes permissible uses of timber (houses, glass etc)timber (houses, glass etc)

English reach to Ireland for new sources of English reach to Ireland for new sources of woodwood

Great fire of London, 1666Great fire of London, 1666




John Houghton proposed a strategic timber John Houghton proposed a strategic timber reserve: “in times of peace, enough might be reserve: “in times of peace, enough might be laid up for war and I believe that once a ten-laid up for war and I believe that once a ten-year store was gotten, we never need fear year store was gotten, we never need fear the want of timber…when we are so the want of timber…when we are so prepared, we need care for nobody”prepared, we need care for nobody”

Growth in use of wood for rail carriages, Growth in use of wood for rail carriages, mining, canal building, mills, water wheelsmining, canal building, mills, water wheels

Abraham Darby develops method to use Abraham Darby develops method to use coked coal rather than charcoal for metal coked coal rather than charcoal for metal smelting. First coal-fired iron furnace in 1754smelting. First coal-fired iron furnace in 1754

England moves from wood to coal ageEngland moves from wood to coal age



Diamond’s view of factors that can lead to the collapse of a society

1.1. Damage people inadvertently inflict Damage people inadvertently inflict on their environmenton their environment

2.2. Climate changeClimate change

3.3. Hostile neighborsHostile neighbors

4.4. Decreased support by friendly Decreased support by friendly neighborsneighbors

5.5. Society’s response to problemsSociety’s response to problems

Collapse, Jared Diamond, 2005, Viking Penguin, member of Penguin Group

energy, environment, and industrial development frederick h. abernathy michael b. mcelroy lecture 9...

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