engineering 176 meeting #10 今晩の最新 9 thermal principles (march 19 continued april 4)...

Engineering 176 Meeting #10

今晩の最新 • 9 Thermal Principles (March 19 continued April 4)

– Convection, Conduction, Radiation in the spacecraft environment

– Heat capacity and other simplifying considerations

– Minimalist’s FEA: MOST

– Hints from Heloise

• 10 - Project Management, Cost & Schedule (April 4)

• Thermal / Mechanical Design.FEA(Joel Pedlikin - April 9)

• 12 - Design work +digital (4/18)

• 13 - Presentations & Misc

(4/25 & 4/30)

• 1 - Introduction• 2 - Propulsion & ∆V• 3 - Attitude Control

& instruments• 4 - Orbits

& Orbit Determination

• 5 - Launch Vehicles• 6 - Power

& Mechanisms• 7 - Radio & Comms• 8 & 9 Reliability

(March 14 & 19)


Last (and this) week: Reliability

‘60s ‘70s ‘80s ‘90s

Government Commercial

Class S implemented

beginClass S

planning

1st Qualified

ManufacurersList

1st Automotive

apps

Transistors

JapaneseQuality

Challenge

submicrontechnology

Customer / supplier

partnerships

• MIL-HNBK-217E

Sensor Encoder Computer Tx

0.99 0.99 .98 0.97 Ps = 0.93

Connector

0.99 0.99 .98 0.97

Sensor Encoder Computer Tx

Ps = 0.83

• Real World

Leads to

What

&

Have in common


Last (and this) week: Reliability

Probability: two views: P(n) = ∏1n Pi …or… count

states

Burglar Alarm paradox in a world of burglar alarms

Redundancy - not a panacea but sometimes useful

Real Threats - budgets and program cancellations - Attrition


Quantum Burglar AlarmsPerpetual Motion via 2nd law violation: Maxwell’s Demon

Flaw: ratchet, if small & soft enough to differentiate among collisions, is itself also moved by them.

Solution #1: insert demon to control ratchet

Solution #2: cool the ratchet so it experiences softer collisions - et voilá - a 2nd law engine

Moral of that story - not obvious you can increase reliability by proliferation of low reliability systems (why nature makes redundant systems, not subsystems, and even that is messy since they eventually annihalate each other, either purposefully or via overpopulation)


Due Last Month (Tuesday, March 19)

• Reading on Reliability:– SMAD 19.2 (15 Pages worth reading / skimming)– TLOM 15 (clean rooms etc.)

• Reading on Thermal Design– SMAD 11.5 (31 pages worth reading + good ref. Data)– TLOM 10

• Mission Success / Reliability plan– Designing in Reliability - Mission Definition– Insurance - Risk mitigation – Estimate lifetime, P(Success) - Test Plan


Due Tonight, April 4

• Reading on Project Management:– SMAD Chapter 23 (9 easy pages)– TLOM ?

• (for next week) Reading on Structural Design– SMAD 18.3 (10 easy pages on structural requirements)– Review/use SMAD 11.6 (36 pages on Structural analysis)

• Budgets– Link - Bits (how many you need)– Power - Mass– $ (for key components +?) - ∆V (station keeping / ACS…)– Thermal - schedule and labor (ROM)


Due Tuesday, April 9 /Thursday, April 11

For Tuesday• Reading on Structural Design

– SMAD 18.3 (10 easy pages on structural requirements)

– Review/use SMAD 11.6 (36 pages on Structural analysis)

For Thursday• Email to Alex / me:

State of your presentation as of April 11


If life is a banquet...• Mission Definition

– Black tie & prime rib for 300 at the Ritz vs.

– Beer and hot dogs in the park down the street

• Preliminary Design– Select entré, drinks, desert, type of music => 1st serious cost estimates

• Detailed Design– # bottles of Schlitz / Perrier & Jouet, ft2 of cake, place markers, # of beef

=> may sign up to fixed price

• ICD– Cash bar? Who supplies the flowers? (Flowers? What flowers?). Chairs?

• Management and Standards– Waiters in tuxedos, sommelier and served hors d’ouvres vs. buffet

• Build vs. Buy– Can you really bake those cookies for less than $7/lb? (and so what!)– What won’t get done while you’re busy at home baking?


What “Management” Does• Planning and Predicting:

– What can be done at what budget– How many people of what types for what duration necessary to do a job– Translate that into contracts, deliverables, payment schedules

and then constantly reworking them as the program evolves

• Creating the environment– Tools, desks, support staff, purchasing, quality, inspection– Compensation, staffing, benefits, incentives, job descriptions and

interrelations– Understanding the client’s / application’s requirements

• Measurement and Intervention– Program revues and other milestones– Employee assessment, assignments– Doing something when it isn’t working

• Problem solving– Supposedly you have those grey hairs for a reason– Picking significant problems out of the noise of day-to-day issues

(don’t do other people’s jobs for them)– Mediating among teams and between team and clients / suppliers

• Getting the job done via your staff– Deadlines and standards / program meetings / team building / – Communicating between suppliers (us) and consumers (them)


What “Upper Management” Does• Tech Management: CTO

– Technical accuracy, quality (no errors + state of the art)– Yellow flags: coming disruptions (and opportunities), dead-end

approaches– Innovating new solutions: make the company more technical

competitive– Management of the tech staff - “what about me?”

• Corporate Management: COO– Legal: employees, workplace, contracting /

auditing, patents– Finding inefficiencies and stomping on them– Physical Plant: leases (space and equipment)– Contracting and negotiating

• Finance Management: CFO– Business plans and money raising– Cash management– Lease v. buy, investing short / medium term

• VP Biz Dev:– Bid / No-bid, proposal prep– Marketing, advertising, trade shows

corp persona– Dabble in programs -

• success is your most powerful sales tool• Ongoing client relationships

• CEO– Why are we here

• Define our biz niche• New directions• Growth (or no-growth)• True to our roots?:

corp. memory– Corporate philosophy

• Look and feel– Employee relations– Contracting style

and client select– Who works here

– Strategy• Relationships• Person behind the

curtain• Mergers / Acquisitions

– Ambassador (icon)– Rep. to the board– + Per CEO’s strengths


Generic Schedule and Staffing Plan


Program Life Cycle

• Development is a learning process.

• Planning is no substitute for on the ground experience.

• Everything is negotiable.

• Will you build > 1 satellite in your life?

Requirements Synthesis

Preliminary Design

Detailed Design

Fabrication

Test &Integration

Development is a poly-cyclic

process. Each phase of the process is

cyclic with the ones adjacent

to it.

Order Component


The Dilbert WarsManagement vs. Engineering

Don’t Invest The Best ToolsR&D Support

Don’t Hire Hire for PeakSlow Pace Fast Pace

Multiplex People Dedicated Staff1 bit controller

Tech Staff Help Selling Don’t Disturb ‘em

Corporate Loyalty Program Loyalty

Gloss Over Bad News Detailed Analysisof all anomalies

Good enough Never good enough

Follow FAR and other rules Impulse BuysOvertime / Comp

Stop if $ Stop Don’t stop

Save fee for Corp. Ops Use fee onproduct

Continuity & Quality of Life Wake of bodies

Company as a team “Best” People


Documentation• Basic Rule: Don’t write what no one will read.

• Go for easy documentation:– Email exchanges - Photographs of everything– Manufacturer’s data on purchased parts - Test & failure logs– Videos of procedures - Well documented code

• Offer automatic documentation– Fabrication drawings & schematic diagrams - Block diagrams

• Synthesized documents worth producing– ICDs - System Requirements Documents

– (H&S’wr) - Launch environment

– Cabling diagram - Thermal / Structure analysis reports

– Users’ manual - Test plans & results

– Contracts, change orders etc.


• GS Locations: (arranged by cost impact)– Central GS: Their motivation vs. yours; Labor intensive; Capability exceeds needs.– Field GS: Portable, hardened equipment; Virtually always backed up at office; Minimal

Autonomy but must be idiot and disaster proof.– Remote GS: Similar to Office but: rent; person to power cycle, maintain, trouble shoot;

max investment in environmental protection (radome, foundation, heater / AC, backups)– Office GS: Motivates autonomy; Employ existing staff; Already on your network– No GS: per minute charges only

• GS Staffing– First 30days: Engineering staff: some (˜3) present, some on call (˜everyone), frequent

telecon and in-person briefings; don’t forget your PR staff– Day 31 to day 90: Engineering (1 or 2) and Ops staff (2 or 3): transition; anomaly track.– Ongoing: Ops staff: One person plus buddy plus on-call. Engineering staff on board via

email and occasional reviews. Probable budget for capabilities upgrades. Possible savings by GS sharing (multiple antennas or prioritize)

• Software– Autonomy and anomalies

• Autonomy is not a risk - it’s a reliability plus– down time (LANL fire experience)

– Menu selection vs. freehand composition

• Tracking– Role & limitations of GPS– Role & limitations of Cheyenne

Operations at a minimum

• The no GS GS– Geosynchs– LEO commsat links– Receive only GS

• Managing the Remote GS– Site availability, installation & test– On-site maintenance– Visits for

• Upgrades• Alignment and maintenance


Keeping Ops Cost Down• Design-in Autonomy

– Satellites go by at the oddest times... - beepers– Design must tolerate outages gracefully (to lower the cost of a GS failure)– Intuitive, graphic, quick-look, menu driven interfaces

• Simple GS– Rental and staffing costs will exceed spacecraft costs– Office / lab space is never free - for long– Pick an orbit that passes over your office

• Assume a 6 month mission

• Manage the transition from the development team to the ops team– Don’t break things and then have to fix them– Allow several months overlap - Agree on command authorization levels

• Keep the development team plugged in– i.e. via email for rapid anomaly resolution

• Use the internet– Remote control vs. remote personnel (if you need a remote GS at all)– Use dial up for security– Find hosts to attend the GS in exchange for data / service access


Populating your program


Scheduling Your Program