evaluating models of human performance: safety-critical ... · national aeronautics and space...

7
National Aeronautics and Space Administration www.nasa.gov Evaluating Models of Human Performance: Safety-Critical Applications Michael Feary HSS Technical Lead HFES Annual Meeting May 24, 2012 https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20130013550 2018-06-03T17:19:47+00:00Z

Upload: doanxuyen

Post on 16-Apr-2018

215 views

Category:

Documents


2 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Evaluating Models of Human Performance: Safety-Critical ... · National Aeronautics and Space Administration Evaluating Models of Human Performance: Safety-Critical Applications Michael

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

www.nasa.gov

Evaluating Models of Human Performance:

Safety-Critical Applications

Michael Feary HSS Technical Lead

HFES Annual Meeting May 24, 2012

https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20130013550 2018-06-03T17:19:47+00:00Z

Page 2: Evaluating Models of Human Performance: Safety-Critical ... · National Aeronautics and Space Administration Evaluating Models of Human Performance: Safety-Critical Applications Michael

Human  Performance  Modeling  in  Safety-­‐Cri7cal,  Mixed-­‐Ini7a7ve  Domains  

•  Increased  use  of  automa7on  emphasizes  need  for  evalua7on  of  aAen7on  

•   Focusing  on  evalua7ons  of  acceptability  as  well  as  op7mality  

•   Need  to  account  for  distribu7ons  of  behavior  

•   Tasks  as  the  linkage  for  complex  system  evalua7on  

Page 3: Evaluating Models of Human Performance: Safety-Critical ... · National Aeronautics and Space Administration Evaluating Models of Human Performance: Safety-Critical Applications Michael

Cogni7ve  Modeling  for  Safety  Cri7cal,  Mixed-­‐Ini7a7ve  Applica7ons  

•  Suppor7ng  Tradeoff  Decisions  -­‐ Social  Penetra7on:  Characterizing  the  problem  space  

•   Focus  on  evalua7ng  the  correct  ques7ons  

-­‐ Metricity:  Avoiding  the  Illusion  of  precision  •   Applicability,  Uncertainty  

-­‐  Robustness:    Defining  strategic  varia7on  

-­‐  Data  Applicability:  Iden7fying  the  measurement    needs  

Page 4: Evaluating Models of Human Performance: Safety-Critical ... · National Aeronautics and Space Administration Evaluating Models of Human Performance: Safety-Critical Applications Michael

Limita7ons:  Bridging  the  Granularity  Gap  

•  New  architectures  –  Bounded  Op7mality  –  focus  on  the  

problems  the  human  has  –  Strategy  Genera7on  –  focus  on  how  the  

goals  could  be  achieved,  strategic  varia7on  

(Brumby,  Howes,  Salvucci,  2007)  

Insights obtained from FAA discussions Toward useful(?) modeling outputs and metrics

The “Anchor and Expand” Approach

In some cases, data may beavailable from a limitedsubject population on alimited task set in a limited(set of) evaluationenvironment(s).

Such empirical human dataprovide an anchor for theanalysis, from which we canexpand—throughmodeling—to new subjectpopulations, new tasks, andnew evaluation scenarios. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Multi−tasking Strategy Space Analysis

Device Task Duration (s)

Late

ral D

evia

tion

(m)

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

! !

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!! !

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

! !

!

!

!!

!

!!

!

! !

!

!

!

!

!

!

! !

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

! !

!

!

!

!!!

!

!

!

!

!

!!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

! !

!

!

!

! !

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!!

!

!!

!

!

!! !

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!!

! !

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

! !

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

! !

!

!

!

!!

!

!! !

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

! !!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

! !

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

! !

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

! !!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

! !

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!!

!!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!!

! !

!

!

!!

!

!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

! !

!

!

!

!

!

! !

!

!

!

!

!

!!

!

!

Wheel crosses lane boundary

!FASTEST

!SAFEST

!

HUMAN DATA

Lewis (University of Michigan) Michigan/NASA Modeling Task 20 July 2011 12 / 24

Page 5: Evaluating Models of Human Performance: Safety-Critical ... · National Aeronautics and Space Administration Evaluating Models of Human Performance: Safety-Critical Applications Michael

Limita7ons:  Bridging  the  Granularity  Gap  •  New  Tools  for  Domain  Experts  

–  CogTool  

•  New  empirical  measures  –  Focus  on  aAen7on  –  eye  tracking  –  fnirs  images  

–  EEG  

CogTool  (John  et  al.,  2004)  SanLab,  Gray  

Portable  fNIRS  

Page 6: Evaluating Models of Human Performance: Safety-Critical ... · National Aeronautics and Space Administration Evaluating Models of Human Performance: Safety-Critical Applications Michael

Thank  You  

Page 7: Evaluating Models of Human Performance: Safety-Critical ... · National Aeronautics and Space Administration Evaluating Models of Human Performance: Safety-Critical Applications Michael

Taxonomy