financial journalism meets quantitative finance
TRANSCRIPT
Financial journalism meets Quantitative finance
Quality journalism an unlikely tool for risk managers
Risk management an undeployed resource for a betterjournalism
Universitagrave di Bologna 19 November 2015
Overview
bull What is a news
bull News features columns investigations
bull News Vs regulatory communications
bull Public and private info
bull How to play with data
bull The secret ingredient
What is a news
News features columns investigations
News Vs regulatory communications
Play with regulatory communications
Source Consob (Italian stock market watchdog) filing
Public available sourcesbull Stock markets data
bull Companies mandatory reportsbull Companies announcements
bull Macro data (inflation public debt unemployment) bull Regulatory filings
bull Research reports (ie banks think tanks Government related bodies)
bull Academic papers
Scoop it Chasing the context
Scoop it When the info is not publicly available
Build a thorough network ofhellipbull advisers
bull tradersbrokersbull lawyersbull analystsbull professors
bull board membersbull risk managers
A matter of trust
Scoop it Basic example
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
What we knewbull overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta
bull major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled with Italian left party PD
bull operative underperformance compared with peers (NII and CET1 figures)
bull FRESH notes ldquododgyrdquo issuance to avoid Fondazione MPSrsquo dilution risk
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total
assets
Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn
All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents
What we knew
bullNot listed = not transparent
bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625
bull absence of a trading platform
bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)
bull ambitious branches expansion plan
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Play with public and private data
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the
bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive
assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario
capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =
EUR 109bn
Understanding the big picture
Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors
do
It works for risk managers as well
as journalists
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
Overview
bull What is a news
bull News features columns investigations
bull News Vs regulatory communications
bull Public and private info
bull How to play with data
bull The secret ingredient
What is a news
News features columns investigations
News Vs regulatory communications
Play with regulatory communications
Source Consob (Italian stock market watchdog) filing
Public available sourcesbull Stock markets data
bull Companies mandatory reportsbull Companies announcements
bull Macro data (inflation public debt unemployment) bull Regulatory filings
bull Research reports (ie banks think tanks Government related bodies)
bull Academic papers
Scoop it Chasing the context
Scoop it When the info is not publicly available
Build a thorough network ofhellipbull advisers
bull tradersbrokersbull lawyersbull analystsbull professors
bull board membersbull risk managers
A matter of trust
Scoop it Basic example
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
What we knewbull overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta
bull major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled with Italian left party PD
bull operative underperformance compared with peers (NII and CET1 figures)
bull FRESH notes ldquododgyrdquo issuance to avoid Fondazione MPSrsquo dilution risk
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total
assets
Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn
All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents
What we knew
bullNot listed = not transparent
bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625
bull absence of a trading platform
bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)
bull ambitious branches expansion plan
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Play with public and private data
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the
bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive
assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario
capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =
EUR 109bn
Understanding the big picture
Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors
do
It works for risk managers as well
as journalists
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
What is a news
News features columns investigations
News Vs regulatory communications
Play with regulatory communications
Source Consob (Italian stock market watchdog) filing
Public available sourcesbull Stock markets data
bull Companies mandatory reportsbull Companies announcements
bull Macro data (inflation public debt unemployment) bull Regulatory filings
bull Research reports (ie banks think tanks Government related bodies)
bull Academic papers
Scoop it Chasing the context
Scoop it When the info is not publicly available
Build a thorough network ofhellipbull advisers
bull tradersbrokersbull lawyersbull analystsbull professors
bull board membersbull risk managers
A matter of trust
Scoop it Basic example
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
What we knewbull overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta
bull major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled with Italian left party PD
bull operative underperformance compared with peers (NII and CET1 figures)
bull FRESH notes ldquododgyrdquo issuance to avoid Fondazione MPSrsquo dilution risk
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total
assets
Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn
All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents
What we knew
bullNot listed = not transparent
bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625
bull absence of a trading platform
bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)
bull ambitious branches expansion plan
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Play with public and private data
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the
bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive
assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario
capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =
EUR 109bn
Understanding the big picture
Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors
do
It works for risk managers as well
as journalists
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
News features columns investigations
News Vs regulatory communications
Play with regulatory communications
Source Consob (Italian stock market watchdog) filing
Public available sourcesbull Stock markets data
bull Companies mandatory reportsbull Companies announcements
bull Macro data (inflation public debt unemployment) bull Regulatory filings
bull Research reports (ie banks think tanks Government related bodies)
bull Academic papers
Scoop it Chasing the context
Scoop it When the info is not publicly available
Build a thorough network ofhellipbull advisers
bull tradersbrokersbull lawyersbull analystsbull professors
bull board membersbull risk managers
A matter of trust
Scoop it Basic example
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
What we knewbull overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta
bull major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled with Italian left party PD
bull operative underperformance compared with peers (NII and CET1 figures)
bull FRESH notes ldquododgyrdquo issuance to avoid Fondazione MPSrsquo dilution risk
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total
assets
Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn
All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents
What we knew
bullNot listed = not transparent
bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625
bull absence of a trading platform
bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)
bull ambitious branches expansion plan
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Play with public and private data
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the
bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive
assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario
capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =
EUR 109bn
Understanding the big picture
Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors
do
It works for risk managers as well
as journalists
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
News Vs regulatory communications
Play with regulatory communications
Source Consob (Italian stock market watchdog) filing
Public available sourcesbull Stock markets data
bull Companies mandatory reportsbull Companies announcements
bull Macro data (inflation public debt unemployment) bull Regulatory filings
bull Research reports (ie banks think tanks Government related bodies)
bull Academic papers
Scoop it Chasing the context
Scoop it When the info is not publicly available
Build a thorough network ofhellipbull advisers
bull tradersbrokersbull lawyersbull analystsbull professors
bull board membersbull risk managers
A matter of trust
Scoop it Basic example
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
What we knewbull overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta
bull major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled with Italian left party PD
bull operative underperformance compared with peers (NII and CET1 figures)
bull FRESH notes ldquododgyrdquo issuance to avoid Fondazione MPSrsquo dilution risk
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total
assets
Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn
All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents
What we knew
bullNot listed = not transparent
bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625
bull absence of a trading platform
bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)
bull ambitious branches expansion plan
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Play with public and private data
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the
bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive
assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario
capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =
EUR 109bn
Understanding the big picture
Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors
do
It works for risk managers as well
as journalists
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
Play with regulatory communications
Source Consob (Italian stock market watchdog) filing
Public available sourcesbull Stock markets data
bull Companies mandatory reportsbull Companies announcements
bull Macro data (inflation public debt unemployment) bull Regulatory filings
bull Research reports (ie banks think tanks Government related bodies)
bull Academic papers
Scoop it Chasing the context
Scoop it When the info is not publicly available
Build a thorough network ofhellipbull advisers
bull tradersbrokersbull lawyersbull analystsbull professors
bull board membersbull risk managers
A matter of trust
Scoop it Basic example
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
What we knewbull overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta
bull major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled with Italian left party PD
bull operative underperformance compared with peers (NII and CET1 figures)
bull FRESH notes ldquododgyrdquo issuance to avoid Fondazione MPSrsquo dilution risk
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total
assets
Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn
All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents
What we knew
bullNot listed = not transparent
bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625
bull absence of a trading platform
bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)
bull ambitious branches expansion plan
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Play with public and private data
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the
bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive
assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario
capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =
EUR 109bn
Understanding the big picture
Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors
do
It works for risk managers as well
as journalists
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
Public available sourcesbull Stock markets data
bull Companies mandatory reportsbull Companies announcements
bull Macro data (inflation public debt unemployment) bull Regulatory filings
bull Research reports (ie banks think tanks Government related bodies)
bull Academic papers
Scoop it Chasing the context
Scoop it When the info is not publicly available
Build a thorough network ofhellipbull advisers
bull tradersbrokersbull lawyersbull analystsbull professors
bull board membersbull risk managers
A matter of trust
Scoop it Basic example
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
What we knewbull overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta
bull major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled with Italian left party PD
bull operative underperformance compared with peers (NII and CET1 figures)
bull FRESH notes ldquododgyrdquo issuance to avoid Fondazione MPSrsquo dilution risk
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total
assets
Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn
All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents
What we knew
bullNot listed = not transparent
bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625
bull absence of a trading platform
bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)
bull ambitious branches expansion plan
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Play with public and private data
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the
bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive
assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario
capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =
EUR 109bn
Understanding the big picture
Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors
do
It works for risk managers as well
as journalists
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
Scoop it Chasing the context
Scoop it When the info is not publicly available
Build a thorough network ofhellipbull advisers
bull tradersbrokersbull lawyersbull analystsbull professors
bull board membersbull risk managers
A matter of trust
Scoop it Basic example
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
What we knewbull overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta
bull major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled with Italian left party PD
bull operative underperformance compared with peers (NII and CET1 figures)
bull FRESH notes ldquododgyrdquo issuance to avoid Fondazione MPSrsquo dilution risk
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total
assets
Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn
All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents
What we knew
bullNot listed = not transparent
bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625
bull absence of a trading platform
bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)
bull ambitious branches expansion plan
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Play with public and private data
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the
bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive
assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario
capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =
EUR 109bn
Understanding the big picture
Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors
do
It works for risk managers as well
as journalists
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
Scoop it When the info is not publicly available
Build a thorough network ofhellipbull advisers
bull tradersbrokersbull lawyersbull analystsbull professors
bull board membersbull risk managers
A matter of trust
Scoop it Basic example
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
What we knewbull overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta
bull major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled with Italian left party PD
bull operative underperformance compared with peers (NII and CET1 figures)
bull FRESH notes ldquododgyrdquo issuance to avoid Fondazione MPSrsquo dilution risk
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total
assets
Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn
All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents
What we knew
bullNot listed = not transparent
bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625
bull absence of a trading platform
bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)
bull ambitious branches expansion plan
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Play with public and private data
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the
bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive
assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario
capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =
EUR 109bn
Understanding the big picture
Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors
do
It works for risk managers as well
as journalists
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
Scoop it Basic example
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
What we knewbull overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta
bull major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled with Italian left party PD
bull operative underperformance compared with peers (NII and CET1 figures)
bull FRESH notes ldquododgyrdquo issuance to avoid Fondazione MPSrsquo dilution risk
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total
assets
Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn
All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents
What we knew
bullNot listed = not transparent
bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625
bull absence of a trading platform
bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)
bull ambitious branches expansion plan
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Play with public and private data
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the
bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive
assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario
capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =
EUR 109bn
Understanding the big picture
Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors
do
It works for risk managers as well
as journalists
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
What we knewbull overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta
bull major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled with Italian left party PD
bull operative underperformance compared with peers (NII and CET1 figures)
bull FRESH notes ldquododgyrdquo issuance to avoid Fondazione MPSrsquo dilution risk
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total
assets
Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn
All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents
What we knew
bullNot listed = not transparent
bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625
bull absence of a trading platform
bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)
bull ambitious branches expansion plan
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Play with public and private data
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the
bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive
assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario
capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =
EUR 109bn
Understanding the big picture
Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors
do
It works for risk managers as well
as journalists
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi
Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total
assets
Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn
All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents
What we knew
bullNot listed = not transparent
bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625
bull absence of a trading platform
bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)
bull ambitious branches expansion plan
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Play with public and private data
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the
bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive
assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario
capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =
EUR 109bn
Understanding the big picture
Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors
do
It works for risk managers as well
as journalists
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
What we knew
bullNot listed = not transparent
bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625
bull absence of a trading platform
bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)
bull ambitious branches expansion plan
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Play with public and private data
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the
bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive
assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario
capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =
EUR 109bn
Understanding the big picture
Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors
do
It works for risk managers as well
as journalists
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Play with public and private data
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the
bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive
assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario
capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =
EUR 109bn
Understanding the big picture
Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors
do
It works for risk managers as well
as journalists
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Play with public and private data
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the
bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive
assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario
capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =
EUR 109bn
Understanding the big picture
Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors
do
It works for risk managers as well
as journalists
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Play with public and private data
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the
bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive
assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario
capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =
EUR 109bn
Understanding the big picture
Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors
do
It works for risk managers as well
as journalists
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza
Scoop it Play with public and private data
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the
bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive
assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario
capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =
EUR 109bn
Understanding the big picture
Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors
do
It works for risk managers as well
as journalists
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
Scoop it Play with public and private data
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the
bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive
assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario
capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =
EUR 109bn
Understanding the big picture
Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors
do
It works for risk managers as well
as journalists
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the
bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive
assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario
capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =
EUR 109bn
Understanding the big picture
Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors
do
It works for risk managers as well
as journalists
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the
bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive
assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario
capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =
EUR 109bn
Understanding the big picture
Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors
do
It works for risk managers as well
as journalists
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
Scoop it Play with public and private data2
An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the
bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive
assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario
capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =
EUR 109bn
Understanding the big picture
Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors
do
It works for risk managers as well
as journalists
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
Understanding the big picture
Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors
do
It works for risk managers as well
as journalists
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
Understanding the big picture A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies
coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo
Thank you
antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom
antoniovanuzzo