global energi 2008

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World-wide energy needs

³There is enough for everybody's need -

but not for everybody's greed´

Mahatma Gandhi



Institutt for elkraftteknikk NTNU 2

Global energy flow (TW)

M å n e - o gp l a n e t -

b e v e g e l s e r

P l a n t e r

F o s s i l eb r e n s l e r

U r a n G e o t e r m i s kv a r m e

S o l l y s1 7 8 . 0 0 0

R e f l e k t e r ts o l l y s

5 3 . 0 0 0

V a r m e -s t r å l i ng

8 3 . 0 0 0

4 1 . 0 0 0

E lv e r 5

3

T i d e v a n n

V in d , b ø lg e r, h av s trø m m e r 3 70

1 0 0F o to s y n te s e N e d b ry t in g 3 5

V a r m e -ta pK j e r n e k r a f t

0 ,5U t t a k 7 , 5

F ø l b a r v a rm e

i lu f t, v a n no g jo r d

I s , v a n nd a m p

K o n d e n s e r i n g

F r y s i n g

F o r d a m p i n gS m e l tin g




Energy Recourses

Non Renewable: ± Oil (included NLG, ́ Natural Gas Liquids´)

Conventional

Unconventional (oil shale, tare sand) ± Natural gas:

Conventional

Unconventional

± Coal:

Hard coal

Lignite (brown coal)

(Peat)

± Nuclear Fuel

Uranium

Thorium




Energy Recourses (cont.)

Renewable ± Hydro power

± Peat ?

± Wood

± Other biomass

± Solar energy

Thermal

Electrical

± Geothermal

± Wind

± Waves ± Tidal energy

± Salt gradients

± OTEC (Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion)




Energy resources. Billion toe.(Source: IIASA, WEC)

Consumption

1850-1990 1990

Reserve Resource Total Additional

(Uncertain)

Oil

Conventional

Unconventional

90 3,2 150

193

145

332

295

525 1900Natural gas

Conventional

Unconventional

41 1,7 141

192

279

258

420

450 400

Coal 125 2,2 606 2794 3400 3000

Total fossil 256 7,0 1282 3808 5090 5300

Uranium

In FBR

17 0,5 57

3390

203

12150

260 150




Energy resources.

Static life time (Years).(Source: IIASA, WEC)

Based on reserve Resourcesincluded

OilConventional

Unconventional

46

107

92

256

Natural gas

Conventional

Unconventional

83

192

247

511Coal 175 1545

Total fossil 183 727

Uranium

In FBR

114

6780




Oil

Sourc : B




Gas

Sourc : B




Oil reserves

Middle East

64 %Oceania

0 %

Africa

7 %

North America

8 %

South America

8 %

Asia

6 %

Europe

7 %




Natural gas

Africa7 %

South

America

4 %

Asia11 %

North

America

6 %

Oceania

1 %

Middle East

34 %Europe

37 %




Static life time for oil (years)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

M i d d l e

E a s t

O c e a n i a

A f r i c a

N o r t h

A m e r i c a

S o u t h

A m e r i c a

A s i a

E u r o p e

W o r l d




Coal

North America

26 %

South America

2 % Asia

25 %

Europe

32 %

Africa

6 %

Oceania

9 %

Middle East

0 %Middle East

Oceania

Africa

North America

South America

Asia

Europe




IE A/OECD: ³World Energy Outlook´

2006 Edition

Total energy intensity will decrease in all countries

Electricity intensity will increase in developing

countries, stabilise or decrease the rest of the world




Global primary energy use5 0

40

30

2 0

10

0

185 0 190 0 195 0 2 00 0 2 05 0 210 0

12

8

4

0

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Gt e

W at [b s]

B

C

Source: IIASA, WEC




IIASA Global

perspectives 1998

Evolution of primary

energy shares

Green Scenarios




0

25000

50000

75000

100000

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Other

H r

ear

at. Gas

Oil

Coal

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Other s

H r o

Nuclear

Nat. Gas

Oil

Coal

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Other s

H r o

Nuclear

Nat. Gas

Oil

Coal

Global power productionIIASA: Scenario A2, A1, B, C1

TWh/year

TWh/year TWh/year

A2

B C1

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

1 99 0 2 01 0 2 03 0 2 05 0 2 07 0 2 09 0

Ot r s

r

N c r

N t. G s

O

A1

TWh/year




World electricity generationIIASA: Scenario A1

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Others

Hydro

Nuclear

Nat. Gas

Oil

Coal

TWh/year




World electricity generationIIASA: Scenario A2

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Others

HydroNuclear

Nat. Gas

Oil

Coal

TWh/year




World electricity generation

IIASA: Scenario A3

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Others

HydroNuclear

Nat. Gas

Oil

Coal

TWh/year





IIASA: Scenario B

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Other s

roNuclear

Nat. Gas

Oil

Coal

TWh/year





IIASA: Scenario C1

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

he s

Hyd o

Nu ea

Na as

l

Coal

TWh/year




0

25000

50000

75000

100000

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Othe s

H d o

Nuclea

N t. s

Oil

l


IIASA: Scenario C2TWh/year




CO2-concentration 1959-2004, from Mauna Loa, Hawaii.




Contribution to GHG emmision



Green Paper: NOU 2006:18

A Climate Friendly Norway

TheThe Report from Norway¶s Low EmissionsCommission

Mandate:

Show how national emissions in Norwaycan be reduced by 50 - 80 % by 2050.

Appointed by the Government 11. March 2005

Professor Jørgen Randers, Oslo (chair)

Exec. direktor Eli Arnstad, Enova

Professor Ola Flåten, Univ. Of Tromsø

Direktor Alvhild Hedstein, Ecolabeling

Direktor Hanne Lekva, StatoilDirektor Lasse Nord, Hydro

Konserndirektør Sverre Aam, Sintef




Why « Norway?

The rich countries have a large responsibilityfor today¶s situation.

Reasonable that they should lead the way.

If not rich Norway, who then?

Other progressive countries have started.

Early mover opportunities.

´All´ countries are small.

N w y




Greenhouse gas emissions in the past and in theCommission¶s reference path, 1990±2050

Elect city ction

Oil and gas activities

Process industr y

Transpor tation

Heating

Agriculture, waste

Mt O2-eq. per year




Greenhouse gas emissions in the past, in the reference path, andin the proposed low-emission path 1990±2050

Mt O2-eq. per year

-CO2 capture and storage f rom gas- or coal-f ired

power plants,

new renewable energy

-Electrif ication of off shore activities

-CO2 capture and storage f rom industr y, process

improvements

-Biof uels, low- and zero-emission vehicles and

ships

-Improved energy eff iciency and biomass

-Methane capture

Ref erence path

Low-emission path




BNP

1 200

1 700

2 200

2 700

3 200

1995 2010 2025 2040 2055

M r d

1 9 9 9

- k r

R f r n b n n

L v pp b n n

Effect on GDPRef er ence ath

Low emissions ath

Bill.Bill.




The Commission¶smain conclusion

It is necessary, doable and not

unreasonably expensive to reduce

Norway¶s GHG emissions by two thirdsby the year 2050.

Norge can without significant

renunciations become a climate friendly

country by the mid century.

Norway should establish the formal goal

of reducing GHG emissions from

Norwegian territory by two thirds by2050.




World generation mix 1995

TWh (%) GW (%)*

Coal 4949 (37) 1193 (38)

Hydro 2496 (19) 725 (23)

Gas 1932 (15) 465 (15)

Nuclear 2337 (18) 368 (12)Oil 1315 (10) 317 (10)

Other 129 (<1) 31 (<1)

Geothermal

Totalt:

42 (<1)

13200 (100)

10 (<1)

3109 (100)

* Estimated.




Expected new capacity 1996 - 2005

(Source: TMI Handbook 1997)

GW Andel

Coal 205 30,8%Hydro 149 22,4%Gas 129 19,4%

Nuclear 65 9,8%

Oil 49 7,4%LNG 29 4,4%

Waste heat 24 3,6%Other 12 1,8%

Geothermal 3 0,5%




Global hydro resources (TWh/år)Theoretical potential: 39 000 TWh/year ( Norway: 600 )Technically exploitable: 14 000 TWh/year ( Norway: 178 )

Developed (1996): 2 500 TWh/year ( Norway: 114 )Source: WEC

0

1000

2000

30004000

5000

M i d d l e

E a s t

O c e a n i a

A f r i c a

N o r t h

A m e r i c a

S o u t h

A m e r i c a

A s i a

E u r o p e

Teknisk potensiale

Utbygd




Renewable GenerationCosts

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050

Gas turbinesGas turbines

2233

5

Cost pr. kWh

11

22

Solar electricity

Solar heat

Etanol/metanol

f rom biof uel

El f rom biof uel

Wind power

33

4

5

44

11

Source: Sydkr aft




Wind power. World capacity

0

2000

4000

000

000

10000

12000

14000

16000

198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000

År

M

W

Other

China

India

USAEU




Other renewables OECD (-)2000/2010/2020/2030

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Bio Vi eo Sol Ha0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Bio Vi eo Sol Ha

Ref er e ce sce ar io Alter ati sce ar io

TWh/year TWh/ year

Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2002




Power generation EU2000/2010/2020/2030

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Ku

O

je ¡ a¢ ¢

K jer ne Vann A.£

or n. ¤ ydr ogen

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Ku¥ ¥

O¥

je¦

a§ §

K jer ne Vann A. ̈

or n. © ydr ogen

TWh/ year TWh/ year

Refer ence cenar ioSum:

000: 72 TWh

2010:3064 TWh

2020:3511 TWh

2030:3835 TWh

A ter nati cenar ioSum:

000: 72 TWh

2010: TWh

2020:3207 TWh

2030:3383 TWh

Source: International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2002

8 ga ant r year , 400 W

15 ga ant r. year , 400 W

030

2020

2010

2000




Other renewables EU2000/2010/2020/2030

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

B o eo o a

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

B o eo o a

Ref er a sesce ar A ter at t sce ar

TWh/ year TWh/ year

Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2002

2030

2020

2010

2000



i f lk f k ikk

Kraftproduksjon i dagens EU-landa)2000 b)IE A 2030 reference scenario c)2030 alternativ scenario

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Kjerne Kull Gass Vann Olje Bio Vind H2 sol

Alternativ scenario

Ref erence scenarioData f or 2000

TWh/ year Sum generation:a) 2572 TWh

b) 3834

c) 3383

Source: International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2002

global energi 2008

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