godo ccamlr and climate change
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Change: The role CCAMLR can play and
projections and CCAMLR response options
Contribution by NorwayOlav Rune Godø
My talk• Climate change in general– UN climate panel etc• Norwegian ambitions (Plan 2012-2022)• Experience in north• Climate change in Antarctic• Harvest and management under climate change• CCAMLR’s role• How can it be pursued
UN – climate panel
• Warming temperatures, and declining pH and carbonate ion concentrations, represent risks to the productivity of fisheries and aquaculture
• no long-term trend in large-scale currents Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), IndonesianThroughflow (ITF), the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), or the transport of water between the Atlantic Ocean and Nordic Seas
UN – climate panel (cont)
• pH impact on calcification organisms• Rapid changes within ocean sub-regions have
already affected distribution and abundance• Local stressors (pollution and other human
impacts) combined with climate change bad mixture
• Changes to ocean generating new challenges for fisheries, as well as benefits (high agreement).
Norwegian research effort in Antarctica 2013-2022
Norway has responsibility and competence within particularly two areas:
• Knowledge on krill-based ecosystems
• Knowledge building on changes in ice mass – how it interact with the ocean
Ch30, Hoegh-Guldberg et. al (2014)
MORE H+ AND MORE CO2
***MORE BICARBONATE***
Ch30, Hoegh-Guldberg et. al (2014)
Ch30, Hoegh-Guldberg et. al (2014)
Ch30, Hoegh-Guldberg et. al (2014)
Ch30, Hoegh-Guldberg et. al (2014)
Ch30, Hoegh-Guldberg et. al (2014)
Northern experience
Sundby and Nakken 2008
Kjesbu et al. 2014
Cod resist climate change
• Exotic fish species appears under climate warming
• Stay for relatively short time
• Cod maintained its role as a major target species independent of climate
Enghoff et al. 2007
Unpredictability
Ice sheet break down at Larsen B during few weeks in 2002
West Antarctic - melting
Warm deepwater penetrates under the ice shelf and cases increased melting from beneath in west Antarctic
East-Antarctica and Dronning Maud Land
• Exceptionally high snowfall in DML compensating for the mass loss from West Antarctic
• Natural variation or climate change?• Is monitored by satellite, radar, ice cores and meteorology
Krill
Antarctic - krill
• Atkinson et al.2004
• Climate impact major ecosystem components and function
• Are salps replacing krill under global warming?
The Southern Ocean – a modified ecosystem
• Two centuries of human modification: Whaling, sealing, fishing pressure
• Commercial exploitation of krill-dependent species and subsequent biomass removal:– Antarctic fur seals ~200 000 tonnes– Whales ~37.4 million tonnes– Finfish ~unknown
• Prey biomass ’release’ ~154 million tonnes per year – mostly by whales
• Additional krill utilized by other predators (penguins not harvested?)
• Post-harvest recovery of whales > increased competition > decreased penguin population
”Krill surplus hypothesis”
“Climate-induced habitat modification Hypothesis”
• 2010 –2013 : 160 billion tonnes (bt) of ice loss (McMillan et al. (2014). GeophysRes Lett. DOI 10.1002/2014GL060111)– 31% increase on 2005 –2011 – Asymmetrical loss –West Antarctica (134bt), East
Antarctica (3bt), WAP (23bt)– Heterogeneous circumpolar loss of krill breeding
habitat –a ‘real’ loss in absolute krill abundance ?
Variability
• Predicting future scenarios, however, is complicated by an intense 55 inter-annual variability in recruitment success and krill abundance (Flores et al. 2012)
• critical knowledge gaps need to be filled – the factors influencing recruitment – the resilience and the genetic plasticity of
krill life stages
(Flores et al. 2012)
No question – these issues will impact CCAMLR!
• Are CCAMLR able to handle changes?
• Is applying the precautionary principle the only viable way to go?
• Can CCAMLR play a more proactive role?– Remove knowledge gaps– Support environmental and ecological
monitoring?
The proactive role
• CCAMLR manage fisheries
• Organise research
• Regulate research fishing proposed by members
• These are all contributions to sustainability
• But are they adequate/proactive efforts towards future challengers posed by climate change?
”Expect the unexpected!”• This is Bill Ricker’s advise
• CCAMLR need to prepare for it
• With CCAMLR’s ecosystem focus, management may run into problems when not knowing
• Can CCAMLR’s operational capacity be utilized more actively to support knowledge on climate change?
• Can CCAMLR do something? Yes we can!
CCAMLR has an impressive sleeping operational capacity
• A large fleet of longliners and trawlers operate all over Antarctic
• Their capacity to collect data is underutilized
• Can also be used to operate moorings, drifters and other equipment
• Enhance coverage in time and space
Use MPAs to support knowledge and data
• Introduction of MPAs have met substantial debate and resistance
• They could become important instruments in support of our knowledge base
• Requires rethinking of the operational strategy of the MPA
How?• Advances in technology may transform fishing
vessels to research vessel collecting physical, biological and chemical data
• Running acoustics on krill trawlers is a good example of hat can be achieved
• Automatic loggers with a variety of sensors can be attached to trawls and longlines profiling the whole water column
• Hull mounted sensors may log surface and weather condition
Reporting
• Small data sets by satellite directly to land base
• Larger data sets are transferred when Ethernet is available
Utilising SOOS
• Cooperation with SOOS to organise data might give a CCAMLR an important data collection role
• And Antarctic a more complete monitoring database
• CCAMLR efforts can limit the negative impacts of time – space gaps in present data.
http://www.soos.aq/
Enhancing legitimacy of CCAMLR fisheries regulation
• Involving stakeholders creates understanding– Informing– utilizing
• Supporting the knowledgebase and
• Strengthen the monitoring basis for adequate regulation
Organisational implications?
• Probably– SC might need restructuring– Tighter interaction between commission and
SC might be required– CCAMLR better integrated with other
Antarctic science and management organisations
• But CCAMLR as a consensus organisation is needed and will prevail
Acknowledgement
• Svein Sundby, IMR, Bergen
• Kit Kovacs, NPI, Tromsø
• Howard Browman, IMR, Bergen