1

Global HIV prevalence in adults, 1985

UNAIDS/WHO, 2006

2

Global HIV prevalence in adults, 1995

UNAIDS/WHO, 2006

3

Global HIV prevalence in adults, 2005

UNAIDS/WHO, 2006

4July 2008 e

Global estimates for adults and children, 2007

• People living with HIV 33 million [30 – 36 million]

• New HIV infections in 2007 2.7 million [2.2 – 3.2 million]

• Deaths due to AIDS in 2007 2.0 million [1.8 – 2.3 million]

5

Estimated number of people living with HIV and adult HIV prevalence Global HIV epidemic, 1990–2007; and, HIV epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2007

Number of people living with HIV% HIV prevalence, adult (15–49)

% HIV prevalence, adult (15–49)

Number of peopleliving with HIV (millions)

% HIV prevalence, adult (15–49)

Number of peopleliving with HIV (millions)

These bars indicate the range around the estimate

NOTE: Even though the HIV prevalence stabilized in Sub-Saharan Africa, the actual number of people infected continues to grow because of ongoing new infections and increasing access to antiretroviral therapy.

Global HIV epidemic, 1990–2007 HIV epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2007

0

10

20

30

40

0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

1990 ‘91 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 2000 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 2007 1990 ‘91 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 2000 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 20070

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0

6July 2008 e

Total: 33 million (30 – 36 million)

Western & Central Europe

730 000[580 000 – 1.0 million]

Middle East & North Africa380 000

[280 000 – 510 000]

Sub-Saharan Africa22.0 million

[20.5 – 23.6 million]

Eastern Europe & Central Asia

1.5 million [1.1 – 1.9 million]

South & South-East Asia4.2 million

[3.5 – 5.3 million]

Oceania74 000

[66 000 – 93 000]

North America1.2 million

[760 000 – 2.0 million]

Latin America1.7 million

[1.5 – 2.1 million]

East Asia740 000

[480 000 – 1.1 million]Caribbean230 000

[210 000 – 270 000]

Adults and children estimated to be living with HIV, 2007

7July 2008 e

Estimated number of adults and children newly infected with HIV, 2007

Western & Central Europe

27 000[14 000 – 49 000]

Middle East & North Africa40 000

[20 000 – 66 000]

Sub-Saharan Africa1.9 million

[1.6 – 2.1 million]

Eastern Europe & Central Asia

110 000 [67 000 – 180 000]

South & South-East Asia330 000

[150 000 – 590 000]

Oceania13 000

[12 000 – 15 000]

North America54 000

[9600 – 130 000]

Latin America140 000

[88 000 – 190 000]

East Asia52 000

[29 000 – 84 000]Caribbean

20 000[16 000 – 25 000]

Total: 2.7 million (2.2 – 3.2 million)

8July 2008 e

Estimated adult and child deaths from AIDS, 2007

Western & Central Europe

8000[4800 – 17 000]

Middle East & North Africa27 000

[20 000 – 35 000]

Sub-Saharan Africa1.5 million

[1.3 – 1.7 million]

Eastern Europe & Central Asia

58 000 [41 000 – 88 000]

South & South-East Asia340 000

[230 000 – 450 000]

Oceania1000

[<1000 – 1400]

North America23 000

[9100 – 55 000]

Latin America63 000

[49 000 – 98 000]

East Asia40 000

[24 000 – 63 000]Caribbean

14 000[11 000 – 16 000]

Total: 2.0 million (1.8 – 2.3 million)

9July 2008 e

Western & Central Europe

1300[<1000 – 1800]

Middle East & North Africa26 000

[18 000 – 34 000]

Sub-Saharan Africa1.8 million

[1.7 – 2.0 million]

Eastern Europe & Central Asia

12 000 [9100 – 15 000]

South & South-East Asia140 000

[110 000 – 180 000]

Oceania1100[1200]

North America4400

[2600 – 7300]

Latin America44 000

[37 000 – 58 000]

East Asia7800

[5300 – 11 000]Caribbean

11 000[9400 – 12 000]

Children (<15 years) estimated to be living with HIV, 2007

Total: 2.0 million (1.9 – 2.3 million)

10July 2008 e

Western & Central Europe

<200[<100]

Middle East & North Africa5700

[3800 – 8000]

Sub-Saharan Africa330 000

[300 000 – 360 000]

Eastern Europe & Central Asia

3200 [2400 – 4300]

South & South-East Asia21 000

[14 000 – 29 000]

Oceania<1000

North America<500[<200]

Latin America4600

[4200 – 8300]

East Asia2000

[1200 – 3100]Caribbean

1800[1500 – 2100]

Estimated number of children (<15 years) newly infected with HIV, 2007

Total: 370 000 (330 000 – 410 000)

11July 2008 e

Western & Central Europe

<200

Middle East & North Africa4400

[3300 – 5400]

Sub-Saharan Africa240 000

[220 000 – 260 000]

Eastern Europe & Central Asia

1600 [1100 – 2200]

South & South-East Asia17 000

[13 000 – 20 000]

Oceania<500

North America<200

[<100 – <500]

Latin America3100

[2300 – 4400]

East Asia1200

[<1000 – 1900]Caribbean

1200[<1000 – 1400]

Estimated deaths in children (<15 years) from AIDS, 2007

Total: 270 000 (250 000 – 290 000)

12

HIV prevalence (%) among 15–24 years old, by sex, selected countries, 2005–2007

0 5 10 15 20 25% HIV prevalence

SwazilandSouth Africa

ZimbabweCentral African Republic

Côte d'IvoireSierra Leone

RwandaHaiti

GuineaEthiopia

Benin

DR CongoNiger

SenegalCambodia

India

UgandaChad

Dominican Republic

Mali

Female

Male

13

Dorrington RE, Johnson LF, Bradshaw D, Daniel T. The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa. National and provincial indicators for 2006.

HIV prevalence by sex and age in South Africa, 2006

14

Comprehensive knowledge of HIV among young people (ages 15–24), 1999–2007

1999–2003 20102004–20070

20

40

60

80

100

%

Year

Male

Female

2005 Target2010 Target

Source: MEASURE DHS (2008)

15

Percentage of most-at-risk populations reached with HIV prevention programmes, 2005–2007

Sex workers

Injecting drug users

Men having sex with men

% Median

60.4%*(39 countries)

46.1%**(15 countries) 40.1%*

(27 countries)

20

50

80

60

70

0

10

30

40

90

100

* Percentage of sex workers and men having sex with men reported knowing where they can receive an HIV test and that they were given condoms.

** Percentage of injecting drug users who reported knowing where they could receive an HIV test and be provided with condoms and sterile injecting needles and syringes.

Source: UNGASS Country Progress Reports 2008

16

Number of people receiving antiretroviral drugs in low- and middle income countries, 2002−2007

Source: Data provided by UNAIDS & WHO, 2008.

end-2002

end-2004

end-2003

end-2005

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.2

2.8

Mill

ion

s

Year

2.4

2.6

3.0

0.0

0.2

0.6

1.0

1.4

1.8

2.0

end-2007

end-2006

North Africa and the Middle East

Eastern Europe and Central Asia

East, South and South-East Asia

Latin America and the Caribbean

Sub-Saharan Africa

17

Per capita HIV expenditures from domestic public sources in low- and middle-income countries, 2004–2007

Year

2004 20062005 2007

4

8

12

0

2

6

10

14

US$

Sub-Saharan Africa Upper middle income countries

Rest of the world Upper middle income countries

Rest of the worldLow and lower middle income countries

Sub-Saharan Africa Low and lower middle income countries

(9.89)

(1.17)(0.63)

(0.14)

(12.01)

(2.04)

(1.15)

(0.20)

18July 2008 e

Over 7400 new HIV infections a day in 2007

• More than 96% are in low and middle income countries

• About 1000 are in children under 15 years of age

• About 6300 are in adults aged 15 years and older of whom:— almost 50% are among women— about 45% are among young people (15-24)

19

20

AIDS är exceptionellt (1)

HIV-infektion är annorlunda än andra infektionssjukdomar

Särdrag hos retrovirus:• Införlivas livslångt i våra cellers arvsmassa• Kontinuerlig nedbrytning av immunsystemet• Dödlig utgång efter 8-10 år • Vertikal transmission (MTCT)

21

AIDS är exceptionellt (2)

• Sexuell smitta; selekterar unga och starka individer

• Framgånsrik smittspridning på kort tid över hela världen

• Dödlig kombination med tuberkulos• Ingen botande behandling, inget vaccin

22

AIDS är exceptionellt (3)• HIV ger en persisterande infektion till skillnad

från akuta infektioner som har snabbt epidemiförlopp med en topp och ett slut

• HIV ger ingen vanlig epidemikurva; prevalensen kan minska men infektionerna kommer inte att försvinna.AIDS kommer att bestå.

23

Konsekvenser av HIV/AIDS pandemin (1)

• Hälso- och sjukvård• Demografi• Föräldralösa barn• Arbetskraft• Livsmedelsförsörjning• Skola- och utbildning

24

Konsekvenser av HIV/AIDS pandemin (2)

• Levnadsförmåga, “life skills”• Ekonomi• Diskriminering och utstötning• Säkerhet• Politik

2500002-E-7 – 1 December 2003

Changes in life expectancy in selected African countries with high and low HIV prevalence: 1950-2005

with high HIV prevalence:ZimbabweSouth AfricaBotswana

with low HIV prevalence:MadagascarSenegalMali

Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2001) World Population Prospects, the 2000 Revision

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Life

exp

ecta

ncy

(ye

ars)

1950–1955

1955-1960

1960-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

26

Globala åtgärder

FN: GeneralförsamlingenSäkerhetsrådetUNAIDS (WHO, UNICEF, UNDP, UNFPA etc.)Världsbanken

Globala Fonden mot AIDS, tuberkulos, malaria

Näringslivet

Folkrörelser, frivilligorganisationer, det civila samhället

27

Credits

• Prof Kallings (VRG 2007)• UNAIDS

Links• Wikipedia: HIV• Wikipedia: AIDS

July 2008 e