ifpri- global pulses perspective production, consumption, trade and outlook -parthasarathy rao
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Global Pulses Perspective: Production, Consumption, Trade and Outlook
P Parthasarthy Rao and P K Joshi South Asia Regional Office
International Food Policy Research Institute
Conference on Pulses for Sustainable Agriculture and Human Health
May 31-1 June, 2016, NAAS Complex, Pusa, New Delhi
This Presentation
• Trends and patterns of pulse production
•Pulse consumption
• Trade in pulses and price trends
•Demand and supply outlook of pulses
•Conclusions and way forward
Data source: FAOSTAT, FAO Web site, and literature
Pulses Production and Area
• Roughly 72 m t of pulses are produced from about 80 m ha • It was 45 mt from 64 m ha area in 1981-83
• Global pulses production during 1980s increased impressively (3.7%); stagnated (0.1%) during 1990s; and picked-up (2.2%) during 2000s.
• Production increased in eighties in developed countries
• Recent increase in production led by developing countries • Yield gains was the main source of production increase during
1980s (62%) but area during 2000 (63%)
• Pulses account for a small share in global arable land (5.8%) • Its share however ranges from 35% to 10% in several low and
middle income countries• Pulses account for 18% of arable land in India the Worlds
largest producer
33.7
14.120.9
2.9
3.7
5.1
9.3
10.3
31.9
16.814.6
8.9
6.5
6.2
5.8
9.3
Dry beans
Chickpeas
Dry peas
Cowpeas
Lentils
Pigeon peas
Broad beans
Others
1980-822011-13
• Dry beans tops the list (32%) followed by chickpea (17%) dry peas (15%); cowpea (9%); lentils and pigeonpea 6%
• Share of cowpea and lentilincreased from 6 to 15%
• Chickpea and pigeonpeashare increased marginally
• Share of peas dry and broadbeans declined
• Six pulses contribute about 80% of pulses production
Production of Pulses by Type
Changing Regional Patterns in Pulses Production
• Asia & Africa share about 67% of all pulses; showing rising trends
• Relative share of Asia in global pulse production however declined from 51% in eighties to 45% in 2013
• Southeast Asia is emerging fastest growing region in pulses • 7.4%, per annum between 2000-2013
• Dry beans, chickpea and pigeon pea are gaining importance
• Chickpea and pigeon pea showing increasing trends in South Asia
• Africa is also showing fast growth in pulses production • 4.6% per annum• Chickpea and pigeon pea in East Africa and Cowpea in West Africa
• Share of Africa increased from 12 to 22%
• Among developed regions, North America led by Canada and Oceania are showing rising trends
• 4.1% per annum• Lentils in Canada and chickpea and lentils in Oceania
• Production declined in traditional growing areas like Europe, West Asia and Eastern Asia.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
19
61
19
65
19
69
19
73
19
77
19
81
19
85
19
89
19
93
19
97
20
01
20
05
20
09
20
13
Africa Northern America
Latin America and Caribbean Asia
Europe Oceania
Regional pulse production (000 t)
Yield of Pulses versus Cereals
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
19
61
19
65
19
69
19
73
19
77
19
81
19
85
19
89
19
93
19
97
20
01
20
05
20
09
20
13
Yie
ld (
kg/h
a)
Cereals Pulses
0500
1000150020002500300035004000450050005500
19
61
19
65
19
69
19
73
19
77
19
81
19
85
19
89
19
93
19
97
20
01
20
05
20
09
20
13
Yie
ld (
kg/h
a)
Developed cereals Developing cereals
Developed pulses Developing pulses
• Global pulse yield around 900 kg/ha; whichused to be 550 kg/ha in 1961 and 750 in1985
• But, global cereals yields increased rapidly
• 1500 kg/ha in 1961, 2500 in 1985 to 4000 kg/hain 2013
• Cereal yields increased significantly both indeveloped and developing countries
• Pulse yields increased mainly in developedcountries until mid 1990s and thereafterstagnated
• In developing countries pulse yields werestagnant throughout and increasedmarginally only from mid 2005
Yield of Pulses in Major Growing Countries, 2011-13
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Can
ada
Un
ited
States o
f Am
erica
Ch
ina
Turkey
Ethio
pia
Ru
ssian Fe
de
ration
Au
stralia
Myan
mar
Brazil
Nigeria
Iran (Islam
ic Rep
ub
lic of)
Un
ited
Rep
ub
lic of Tan
zania
Me
xico
Ind
ia
Pakistan
Ken
ya
Ugan
da
Bu
rkina Faso
Mo
zamb
iqu
e
Niger
Yie
ld (
kg/h
a)
• There is large inter-regional and inter-country yield variation
• Average yields of developed countries was > 1.5 t/ha• Canada > 2 t/ha; US near 2 t/ha
• Developing countries average yield was <1 t/ha• Myanmar and Ethiopia are exception
• Most of the African and S Asian countries yields are 400-600 kg/ha
Consumption and Utilization of Pulses
0
20
40
60
80
100
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Foo
d (
%)
World Developed Developing
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Feed
(%
)
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Per
cap
ita
foo
d
World Developed Developing
• Global demand for pulses is increasing• Around 70 m t in 2011-13 compared to 42
m t in 1980-81• But per capita consumption declined (10kg in
1961 to 6kg in 1980 and remained stagnant;slow rise since 2008
• Diverse uses for food & feed• Developing countries 75% as food• Developed countries 35% as food
Drivers of Household Consumption: Role of Demand Elasticities
Consumer Income Price Overall
All 0.206 -0.456 -0.250
Poor 0.500 -0.699 -0.199
Rich 0.098 -0.345 -0.250
• Price elasticity is more than income elasticity
• Net elasticity is -0.250
• Poor are more sensitive to these elasticities• Pe= -0.666 and Ie= 0.500
• Consumption will be stabilized if income increase is more than price increase
Pulse Share in Total Protein Consumption
34.5
26.1
21.7
18.9
18.5
18.2
17.9
17.3
16.4
14.7
14.4
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Rwanda
Niger
Tanzania
Ethiopia
Uganda
Cameroon
Nicaragua
Haiti
Mozambique
Kenya
Malawi
Pulse share, %
• Globally share of pulses in total protein intake is around 5%.
• Share of protein however, high in several low and middle income countries ranging from 30% to 10%.
• In India pulses contribute 13% to protein intake.
• Per capita availability of protein from pulses as also per capita consumption growth turned positive and grew at 1.3% per annum since mid 2000.
Region-wise Self-Sufficiency in Pulses
0.96
2.27
3.03
1.56
0.89 0.93 1.02 0.930.72 0.81
1.021.24
1.55
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Self-sufficiency ratio: 1 = Self sufficient • At aggregate level, developed countries
have surplus while deficit in developing countries• Northern America has highest surplus, while
Asia has high deficit
• West and South Asia are highly deficit in pulses
• Between 1980 and 2011 self-sufficiency is increasing in developed countries and further declining in developing countries• Developed from 1.05 to 1.56.
• Developing from 1.0 to 0.93
Pulse Trade: Changing Patterns
• Global pulse trade is about 12 million tons; it was 3 m t in 1980-82 and 6.5 m t in 1990-92• 18% of total global pulse production is traded, it is 55% for
developed countries
• Developed countries shares 65% of all exports
• Developing countries shares 82% of all imports; South Asia shares about 40% of imports
• Exports zooming from North America from 1990s led by Canada• Canada, Myanmar, USA, Australia and China account for 75% of
all exports
• India is largest importing country (3-4 m t)• India, China, BD, Pakistan and Egypt account about 62% of all
imports
Pulse trade: Index values 1960=100
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Ind
ex v
alu
e
Pulses (Total) Cereals (Total)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Exp
ort
s
Developed (Pulses) Developing (Pulses)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Imp
ort
s
Developed (Pulses) Developing (Pulses)
Pulse Exports by Type
1980-82
Dry peas exports
47.3
5.77.6
12.4
21.3
5.7
Beans, dry
Broad beans,horse beans, dry
Chick peas
Lentils
Peas, dry
Other pulses
31.6
5.9
9.415.2
35.8
2.2Beans, dry
Broad beans,horse beans, dryChick peas
Lentils
Peas, dry
Other pulses
2009-11
Exports share of peas dry, lentils and chickpeas increased and declined for beans
dry
Pulse Prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012Pro
du
cer
pri
ces
(US
$/
ton
ne
)
Canada Spain
Russian Federation United Kingdom
United States of America
Dry peas
Stage I: 1961-71 almost stagnatedStage II: 1971-85 increasing; peak for chickpea in 1979-80 & most pulses in 1981Stage III: 1985-03 volatile; peak for chickpea in 1995Stage IV: 2003 onward rising trend with peak in 2008Dry peas: Lower prices than other pulses; with peak in 2008 and then rising
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Exp
ort
s U
nit
Pri
e
Chick peas Lentils Pulses + (Total) Cereals + (Total)
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
Euro
pe
No
rthA
merica
Africa
Latin A
merica
Asia
Sou
theastern
Asia
Eastern A
sia
Sou
thern
Asia
Tho
usa
nd
met
ric
ton
s
2020 2030 2050
Source: S, ICSource S. Nedumaran, ICRISAT
Projected Pulse Surplus and Deficit by Region, IMPACT Model
Future Pulse Outlook (Source: Clancey 2009; Kumar et al 2009; Rao et al 2010)
• Global pulse consumption may grow by 10% in coming decade and 23% by 2030; more rapidly in Africa and Asia• Pulse consumption in Africa may rise 27% in next decade and 50% by 2030
• In Asia, pulses consumption would increase by 12% in 2020 and by 24% in 2030
• To bridge demand –supply gap • Yields to increase more than 1.5 times; not easy task
• Or additional area under pulses to 6 m ha by 2020 and 10 m ha by 2030
• Prices of pulses will increase and fluctuate with changes in annual production
• Trade will increase; developing countries to import more
• Shift in consumption towards value added products
• More private sector participation
Conclusions and Way Forward
• Pulse production has started to look up since mid 2000 due to promotion of improved technology and government support
• Pulse production has diversified with new production niches emerging
• New niches not only in developed country regions (North America, Oceania) but also in Africa and South East Asia.
• In India the largest pulse producing and consuming country production trending up but at a slow pace
• Per capita consumption of pulses increased marginally at the global level after decades of decline.
• Pulses trade scenario in changing with new countries producing pulses for export
• Demand for pulses is set to grow in the short to medium term but under business as usual scenario supply side constraints will continue
Continued……….
• Measures to increase pulse supply:
• Global level
• Increase funding for pulse research
• Incentives for improved technologies to public as well as private sector
• Enable effective trade
• National level
• Bridge yield gaps to increase domestic production
• Find niches to fit pulses in cropping pattern
• Reduce volatility in pulse prices
• Improve pulse value chains to benefit producers and consumers
• Attract private sector in pulses production, processing and marketing
• Promote innovative institutions for scale
International Year of Pulses- 2016Commit ensuring pulses to poor at affordable prices
Thank you