impacts of a future city master plan on on thermal and ... · future (the 2030s) climate with...
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Impacts of a future city master plan on
on thermal and wind environmentsin Vinh city, Vietnam
Satoru Iizuka, Nagoya University, Japan
Tatsunori Ito, Nagoya University, Japan
Masato Miyata, Mitsubishi UFJ R&C, Japan
in Vinh city, Vietnam
1
Background: Vietnam's recent growth
02468
1012[%]
ベトナムの経済成長率
400005000060000700008000090000
100000
[×1000] ベトナムの人口増加の割合
Economic growth rate Population
Average: 6% Growth rate: 1.2%
2
-6-4-20
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
Source: IMF-World Economic Outlook Databases
010000200003000040000
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
Source: The World Bank
Under the situation of Vietnam's recent growth,many city master plans have been proposed.
City master plan for Vinh city, Vietnam
By Nikken Sekkei Civil Engineering Ltd., Japan
Target period : 2030Planned population : 900,000
3
Vinh city, Vietnam (1)
Population 450,000
Land Area 105 km2
N Vinh city
Hanoi
Ho Chi Minh
4
Vinh city, Vietnam (2)
200250300350400450500
15
20
25
30
35
Pre
cipi
tatio
n [m
m]
tem
pera
ture
[℃]
Air temperature of Vinh Air temperature of Tokyo
050100150200
0
5
10
15
Pre
cipi
tatio
n [m
m
Air
tem
pera
ture
In Vinh city,June is the hottest month. Sep. and Oct. are rainy months.
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Introduction of city master plan
Grassland
CBD (Central Business District)
Cropland/Grassland Mosaic
Water Bodies
New Urban District
Cropland/Woodland Mosaic Shrubland
Existing Urban District
Irrigated Cropland and Pasture Dryland Cropland and Pasture
Deciduous Broadleaf Forest
Present land use City master plan(2030; 900,000 people) 6
Development of downscaling model
Global scale
Regional scale
Urban scale
Nagoya
Ise Bay
Urban scale
Building scale
7
GCM + WRF + LES downscaling
Computational domains and grid design
52.5 km
46.5 km
Citymaster
plan
Vietnam
Domain 1
SouthChina
Domain 2
Domain 3
8
Size Grid points Horizontal grid
Domain 1 585 km×540 km×21 km 130×120×34 4.5 km
Domain 2 177 km×159 km×21 km 118×106×34 1.5 km
Domain 3 52.5 km×46.5 km×21 km 106×94×34 0.5 km
kmplanarea
Laos
ChinaSea
Simulated cases (1)
Period Land use
Case 0 June in 2011 (Present) Present land use
Case 1
June in the 2030s(Future)
Present land use
Case 2 City master plan
Case 3Northern concentration
of the new urban districts
9
of the new urban districts
Case 4Southern concentration
of the new urban districts
Three categories in the urban area:
1. Central business district (CBD)Average height of buildings: 26 m, Building (green) coverage ratio: 50% (50%)
2. Existing urban districtAverage height of buildings: 12 m, Building (green) coverage ratio: 70% (30%)
3. New urban districtAverage height of buildings: 12 m, Building (green) coverage ratio: 70% (30%)
Simulated cases (2)
10
Present land use (Cases 0 and 1) Master plan (Case 2)
Northern concentration (Case 3) Southern concentration (Case 4)
Future projection by pseudo global warming method
General circulation model: GFDL-CM3
Pseudo global warming databased on RCP 8.5 scenario
Initial and boundary conditions for WRF simulations
Laos
Vietnam
Domain 1
SouthChinaSea
11
52.5 km
46.5 km
Domain 3
Domain 2
Future (the 2030s) climate with present land use (Case 1)– Present (2011) climate with present land use (Case 0)
Effect of global warming in the 2030sdi
ffere
nce
[°C
]
2
2.5
Space- and monthly-averaged diurnal variation of the difference in air temperature (at 2 m)
12Time [h]
Tem
pera
ture
diff
eren
ce
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223
1.76℃ Present land use
0.4
0.5
Future (the 2030s) climate with city master plan (Case 2)– Future (the 2030s) climate with present land use (Case 1)
Effect of introducing city master plandi
ffere
nce
[°C
]
Space- and monthly-averaged diurnal variation of the difference in air temperature (at 2 m)
0.85℃
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223Time [h]
Tem
pera
ture
diff
eren
ce
0.33℃0.17℃
Present land useCity master plan
Source: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Synthesis Report (SPM)
0.85℃(1880-2012)
13
Future (the 2030s) climate with modified master plan (Case 3)– Future (the 2030s) climate with city master plan (Case 2)
Effect of new urban district structure (1)di
ffere
nce
[°C
]
Space- and monthly-averaged diurnal variations of the difference in air temperature (at 2 m)
0.4
0.5 CBD New urban (North) Existing urban
14Time [h]
Tem
pera
ture
diff
eren
ce
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223
0.23℃Northern concentrationCity master plan
Future (the 2030s) climate with modified master plan (Case 4)– Future (the 2030s) climate with city master plan (Case 2)
Effect of new urban district structure (2)di
ffere
nce
[°C
]
Space- and monthly-averaged diurnal variations of the difference in air temperature (at 2 m)
0.4
0.5 CBD New urban (South) Existing urban
15Time [h]
Tem
pera
ture
diff
eren
ce
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223
0.11℃
Southern concentrationCity master plan
Summary
2. By introducing the proposed city master plan, the averaged air temperature in the urban areas was
℃
1. With the continuous progress of global warming, the future (the 2030s) thermal environment in Vinh city was about 1.8℃ hotter than that in the present status.
16
averaged air temperature in the urban areas was 0.17℃ higher than that in the case with the present land use.
3. The future (the 2030s) thermal environment in the case with the original city master plan was better than that with the northern or southern concentration of the new urban districts.
17
RCP scenarios IPCC 5th assessment report
RCP: Representative Concentration Pathway
Source: IPCC AR5 Working Group I Summary for Policymakers
18
Pseudo global warming data (1)
Components of global warming
1. Horizontal wind components
2. Potential temperature
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3. Geopotential height
4. Sea surface temperature
5. Ground surface temperature
Pseudo global warming data (2)
1) Monthly variations of 10-year averageddata from 2030 to 2039 based onthe RCP 8.5 scenario
2) Monthly variations of 10-year averaged
20
2) Monthly variations of 10-year averageddata from 2000 to 2009
1) − 2) was added to the present (June 2011)NCEP Final Operational Global Analysis data.