instructions for use - 北海道大学学術成果コレク …¼ˆipcc ar4, wgii, spm, 2007 ） 13...

Instructions for use

Title Water, Sustainable Development, and Climate Change

Author(s) Oki, Taikan

Citation 持続可能な低炭素社会づくりへの挑戦～社会改革と技術革新の相乗効果を求めて～．平成20年6月24日．札幌市

Issue Date 2008-06-24

Doc URL http://hdl.handle.net/2115/34487

Type conference presentation

File Information 14-2.pdf

Hokkaido University Collection of Scholarly and Academic Papers : HUSCAP

https://eprints.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/dspace/about.en.jsp

http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ 1

Taikan OkiInstitute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo

Water, Sustainable Development,and Climate Change

Challenges in Water System as a Fundamental System of Sustainable Human Society, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, June 24th, 2008


World Water Issues

Indispensable water for livesOne in five of the world population does not have access to safe and affordable drinking water (20L/d/c within 1km).

Each year 3-4 million people die because of waterborne diseases

Profitable water for agriculture and industryTotal withdrawals 3,800km3(1995) 4,300-5,200km3(2025)

Comfortable water for human being and ecosystemsClimate Change and Urbanization water hazard risksInternational conflicts because of water issues?


Future ProjectionFuture Projectionthrough the 21through the 21stst CenturyCentury

Changes considered include:Water demand for domestic, industrial, and irrigation sectors.

Population (SRES)Urban and rural areas separated

GDP (SRES)Improvement of reuse (SRES)

Climate change (SRES)


World Food Production and Supply

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Ratio t

o t

he 1

961 V

alu

e

Population-Estimates

Agricultural Area

Irrigated Area

Area Harv: Cereals, Total

Yield: Cereals, Total

Production: Cereals, Total

Cal/Cap/Day

“irrigated land, which is 16% of

cropland, produces 40%

of crops”

(based on FAOSTAT & AQUASTAT)

World Food Production and Supply


GDP/capita and domestic water use

Future Domestic Water Use=Future Estimate +D

where D is the bias error,D=Statistics in 1900 –

Estimate for 1990

Assumptions：1 Domestic water use in developing

countries will increase associated with the increase of GDP.

2 Life style in domestic water use is calibrated by simple manner for countries with statistics of the current domestic water use.

1

10

100

1000

100 1000 10000 1000001人当たりGDP [1990年 USドル]

1990年

　1人

当た

り生

活用

取水

量

[m3/(人

・年

)]

Q : Domestic Water Use [m3 / capita/year ] G : GDP per person [US$ equivalent of year 1990]

989.32403169.2

GG

log(Q) =

* Future GDP under SRES scenario was downscaled from GDP projection in 4 region in the world into each country by CIESIN.

GDP and Domestic Water Use

G

Q


Total water withdrawal and GDP for industry in each country are proportional.

Japan is an exception with high water use efficiency.

r = 0.788

slope = 51

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400GDP(PPP) for Indus. /bilion $

Indus.

wat

er

use

/m

ilion

m^3

Japan

Russia

CanadaFrance

KoreaUK

r = 0.935(0.967 exclud. Japan)

China

USA

( Japan)

slope = 74

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

GDP(PPP) for Indus. /bilion $

Indus.

wat

er

use

/m

ilion

m^3

3

Future IW＝Current IW ＊GDP Growth for Industry＊Improvement of water use efficiency

Future Projection

GDP and Industrial Withdrawals

(part of the left figure)


Total Water Withdrawal (106m3/y)in 2050 (difference to Year 2000)

A1b(2055-2000)

(Shen, et. al, 2008, HSJ)

-5000 -200 -50 -5 5 50 200 1000 5000


（Lead Authors for the 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC, WG II, Chapter 3 “Freshwater resources and their management”）


Impacts of climate change on freshwater fesources

In the course of the century, water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline, reducing water availability in regions supplied by melt water from major mountain ranges, wheremore than one-sixth of the world population currently lives.By mid-century, annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to increase by 10-40% at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease by 10-30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics, some of which are presently water-stressed areas.Drought-affected areas will likely increase in extent. Heavy precipitation events, which are very likely to increase in frequency, will augment flood risk.

（IPCC AR4, WGII, SPM, 2007）


Number of people underserious water stress

(Oki and Kanae, Science, 2006)

Rws= (W-S)/QAwc= Q/C (m3/y/c)

Q: How can we realize B1 society?

Rws in 2055 (A2)

http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ 14Change in water stress index for 2050 (ratio)

MultiGCM/GSWP2

A1b

A2

B1

2055/2000

< 0.50.5 - 0.90.9 - 1.51.5 - 2.02.0 - 3.03.0 - 4.04.0 - 5.0

> 5.0


Extreme Events?

http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ 16降雨量増加の地域分布

①

②

③

④

⑤

⑥

⑦

⑧

⑨

⑩

⑪

①

②

③

④

⑤⑥

⑦

⑧

⑨

⑩

⑪

1.20～1.25

1.15～1.20

1.10～1.15

1.05～1.10

1.00～1.05

凡例

① 北海道 1.24

② 東北 1.22

③ 関東 1.11

④ 北陸 1.14

⑤ 中部 1.06

⑥ 近畿 1.07

⑦ 紀伊南部 1.13

⑧ 山陰 1.11

⑨ 瀬戸内 1.10

⑩ 四国南部 1.11

⑪ 九州 1.07

ＧＣＭ２０（A1Bシナリオ）で求めた

各調査地点の年最大日降水量から

（2080-2099年の平均値）

（1979-1998年の平均値）

将来の降雨量を予測（上記の中位値）

を求め

（国交省資料より）今世紀末

今世紀末でもせいぜい1.2倍程度


X年確率降水量（年最大日降水量）

60.9

69.4

73.2

77.7

87.7

66.6

75.4

79.5

84.1

89.2

94.8

82.1

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

"XX年に1度の豪雨"

日降

水量

(mm

/day)

20C

21C

降水強度1割増加

≒豪雨頻度3倍

(CCSR/NIES K-1 シミュレーション結果、東京付近)

http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ 18Change in Drought Frequency

End of 21st centurycompared with 20th century

Drought: daily river discharge is belowthreshold of 10%

percentile

Hirabayashi et al., (HSJ, 2008)Based on CCSR-NIES AOGCM

Change in Flood Frequency

End of 21st centurycompared with 20th century

Frequency in the 21st

century of 100-year flood

in the 20th century

Increase Drought

Flood Increase Flood Decrease

Decrease Drought


Number of people under more frequent floods

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2001-2030 2036-2065 2071-2100

0-10

10-25

25-50

50-75

75-100

notincrease

return period of 100-year flood

MIROC-Hi, A1B(Billion people)

69.2%(5.6)

27.3%(1.1)25.1%(1.8)

1.2%(0.1)

11.5%(0.9)13.1%(1.1)

31.9%(2.2)24.4%(2.1)

23.1%(1.6)

10.3%(0.8)

20.2%(1.7) 11.3%(0.8)

(Hirabayashi et al. 2008, HSJ)


MitigationReduce the emission of green house gases (GHGs) and slow down the speed of the climate change.Most of the measures are also good for reducing the energy consumption and saving the fossil energy.

AdaptationEnhance the resilience of the society and reduce the disaster which is anticipated due to the climate change. Most of the adaptation measures are also good for solving the existing social issues: poverty, vulnerabilities for natural disaster, food and agriculture, health, ecosystem, …

Counter Measure against CC


Adaptation OptionsSupply-side

Prospecting and extraction of groundwaterIncreasing storage capacity by building reservoirs and damsDesalination of sea waterExpansion of rain-water storageRemoval of invasive non-native vegetation from riparian areasWater transfer

(IPCC AR4, WGII Ch3, 2007)


Naha, Okinawa, Japan40,000m3/day


Adaptation OptionsDemand-side

Improvement of water-use efficiency by recycling waterReduction in water demand for irrigation by changing the cropping calendar, crop mix, irrigation method, and area plantedPromotion of indigenous practices for sustainable water useExpanded use of water markets to reallocate water to highly valued usesExpanded use of economic incentives including metering and pricing to encourage water conservationReduction in water demand for irrigation by importing agricultural products, i.e., virtual water

(IPCC AR4, WGII Ch3, 2007)


0

1 ,000

2 ,000

3 ,000

4 ,000

Unit

W

ater

Requir

em

ent

R i ce Ba rle y So y

Be a n

W h e a t M a ize

3,600

Unit Water Requirement of Major Crops

(m3/t)

2,600 2,5002,000 1,900

(based on crop yield in Japan、FAOSTAT mean 1996-2000)

Unit Requirement of Water--Crops--

(Oki, et. al, 2002, IHE-UNESCO)


5,900

4,100

3,200

20,600

4,5003,000

14,400

0 5 ,000 10 ,000 15 ,000 20 ,000 25 ,000

牛（正肉）

牛（枝肉）

豚（正肉）

豚（枝肉）

鶏（正肉）

鶏（枝肉）

鶏卵

(m3/t)

Unit Water RequirementーMeatー

WholeBeef

WholePork

Pork

Beef

PoultryWhole Poultry

Egg

Unit Water Requirement of Major Meat (based on crop yield and the way of raising in Japan)

560 m3/t for milk

(Oki, et. al, 2002, IHE-UNESCO)


CaribbeanCaribbean

“Virtually Required Water” Trade between Regionsassociated with food trade in 2000 (cereals only)

NorthNorthAmericaAmerica

Central Central AmericaAmerica

South South AmericaAmerica

WestWestAfricaAfrica

OceaniaOceania

East &East &South East AsiaSouth East Asia

SouthSouthAsiaAsia

USSRUSSR

North WestNorth WestAfricaAfrica

WesternWesternEuropeEurope

MiddleMiddleEastEast

1~5 5~10 10~15 15~20 20~30 30~50 50<

Importer based, over 5 km3/y

km3/y

(Based on Statistics from FAO etc., for 2000)

78.5

33.5

46.2

57.538.8

36.4

(Oki, et. al, 2004)


•7 out of top 10 importing countries are seriously poor in water resources.

•7 out of top 10 exporting countries are rich in water resources.

•Denmark (10) and India (18) are water stressed but exporting RW in net.

Virtual Water Balance in Countries (m3/c/y) in 2000

Blue: ExportingRed: Importing

Exporting Importing(Oki, et. al, 2004)

Major cropsand meat


Conventional Water Resources AssessmentConventional Water Resources Assessment

Potentially Available Water Resources per Capita in 2000　

Seriously Stressed (~1) Stressed (1~2) Slightly Stressed (2~5)

101033 mm33/capita/capita//yearyearModerate (5~10) Rich (10~)

GSWP2 ensemble runoff, SRES A1/B1 population

Countrybase

http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ 29World Water Resources Considering Virtual Water TradeWorld Water Resources Considering Virtual Water Trade

Seriously Stressed (~1) Stressed (1~2) Slightly Stressed (2~5)

101033 mm33/capita/capita//yearyearModerate (5~10) Rich (10~)

Potentially Available Water Resources per Capita in 2000　

Countrybase+VW

GSWP2 ensemble runoff, SRES A1/B1 population


4 34 11

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1̃ , 000 USD 1, 000 5̃ , 000

USD

5, 000 2̃0, 000

USD

20, 000USD̃

GDP per capi t a ( US$/y/c)

Sl i ght l y

St r es sed

Ser i ous

Water Resources Assesment Considering VW tradeWater Resources Assesment Considering VW trade

22 Countries were classified into “seriously stressed” in 2000 by conventional water resources assessment.

+Virtual Water Import

(Oki, et. al, 2004)


2

12

0

2

3

6

2

0 0

31

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1̃ , 000 USD 1 , 000-5 , 000

USD

5 , 000-20 , 000

USD

20 , 000 USD̃

GDP per cap i t a ( US$/y/c )

Sl i g h t l y

St r es s ed

Ser i ous




(Oki, et. al, 2004)


2

12

0

2

3

6

2

0 0

31

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1̃ , 000 USD 1 , 000-5 , 000

USD

5 , 000-20 , 000

USD

20 , 000 USD̃

GDP per cap i t a ( US$/y/c )

Sl i g h t l y

St r es s ed

Ser i ous




Rich Countries aresaved by VW importPoor Countries

remainWater Poor

Seriously StressedSeriously Stressed

StressedStressedSlightly StressedSlightly Stressed

Burundi: 31m3/c/yRwanda:53m3/c/y

VW Balance

Egypt:141m3/c/y

Oman: 512m3/c/yBahrain:313m3/c/y

UAE:4,490m3/c/y

(Oki, et. al, 2004)


MessagesScenario Projection:

The ultimate objectives of future-oriented world water resource assessments are to show the international community what will happen if we continue to manage our water resources as we do today and to indicate what actions may be needed to prevent undesirable outcomes. In that sense, studies of future world water resources are successful if their predictions based on business-as-usual are proven wrong.

Mitigation is also good for sustainable energy usage, and adaptation is also good for reducing of current vulnerabilities against hazards.

(Oki and Kanae, Science, 2006)


Support developingsustainability in a society

Water should not be dealt alone separated from food and energy.

Water

Energy Food

desalination

hydropower irrigation

virtual water trade

bio-fuel

cultivation

Limited Resources = “LAND”


飲水思源When you drink water, think its origin.

飲食思水When you eat,think about water.

Thank You!!

instructions for use - 北海道大学学術成果コレク …¼ˆipcc ar4, wgii, spm, 2007 ） 13...

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