intro to systems thinking
DESCRIPTION
Slides for "Intro to Systems Thinking" workshop. Session details and resources available here: http://pwoessner.wikispaces.com/Introduction+to+Systems+ThinkingTRANSCRIPT
Introduction to Systems ThinkingPatrick Woessner
Lausanne Laptop Institute 2012http://bitly.com/systems_thinking_2012
The Dilbert System
Knowledge and Experience
0 5 10
I Recognize Dilbert I Have Heard of Systems Thinking
Jay Forrester Sends Me
Flowers On My Birthday
The World’s Biggest Problems• Armed Conflict• Spread of Infectious Disease• Growing Population• Availability of Energy• International Terrorism• The Economy• Climate Change• Poverty, Hunger, Lack of Water
Date Source: Eurobarometer survey of the EU, 2011Image Source: 123RF
Why Do These Problems Persist?
Schools Have Not Prepared Students to Solve Them
Learning to solve this…
A car averages 27 miles per gallon. If gas costs $4.04 per gallon, which of the following is closest to how much the gas would cost for this car to travel 2,727 typical miles?
A. $44.44B. $109.08C. $118.80D. $408.04E. $444.40
Question Source: ACT PrepImage Source: MarketMixup
won’t teach you to solve this.
The United States consumers more than 20% (7 billion barrels) of the world’s oil supply annually yet only has 2% of the world’s proven oil reserves. What factors will determine when we reach “peak oil”—the point in time when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of oil production is expected to enter terminal decline?
Image Source: OnlineBikeMania
Systems Thinking
Traditional analysis focuses on the individual pieces of what is being studied. Systems thinking focuses on how the things being studied interact with the other constituents of the system.
Instead of isolating smaller and smaller parts of the system being studied, systems thinking works by expanding its view to consider larger and larger numbers of interactions as an issue is being studied.
Image Source: Flickr Creative Commons, by erwlas
Don’t Wake Up in a Roadside Ditch
Problem Solving: Pest Control
Problem: Insect “A” is damaging cropsTraditional Analysis Approach: Spray pesticide to kill the insects
Insect “A” Population Insect “B” Population
Pesticide Application Insect “A” Declines Crops Flourish
OVER TIME…
Insect “B” Population Explodes Crops Damaged Even More
What is a System?
A set of elements or parts that is coherently organized and interconnected in a pattern or structure that produces a characteristic set of behaviors, often classified as its “function” or “purpose.” (Donella Meadows)
Components of a System
Elements Inter-connections Function
Elements
Elements
• Typically the most obvious part of a dynamic system
• Changing elements often has very little effect on the system
Image Source: Armchair GM
Interconnections
Inter-connections
• Often involve the flow of information
• Changing relationships usually changes system behavior
Image Source: Creative Commons by ~IconTexto
Function
• Typically the least obvious part of a dynamic system
• A change in purpose changes a system profoundly
Image Source: Antique Radios
Function
Systems: Key Points• A system is more than the sum of its parts.• Many of the interconnections in systems operate through the
flow of information.• The least obvious part of the system, its function or purpose,
is often the most crucial determinate of the system’s behavior.• System structure is the source of system behavior. System
behavior reveals itself as a series of events over time.
A System Case Study
What is Thinking?
“Thinking consists of two activities: constructing mental models and then simulating them in order to draw conclusions and make decisions.” – Barry Richmond
Understanding the concept of a tree requires more information than is available through sensory experience alone. It’s built on past experiences and knowledge.
Source: Jeremy Merritt
Mental Models
Image Source: Flickr Creative Commons, by Dave Hosford
Mental Models
Image Source: Sports in Wisconsin
Mental Models
Image Source: The Baby Proofing Blog
Changing Thinking
Fold your arms the way you would if you were bored, with one falling over the other.
Uncross your arms and fold them again, the other way, with the other arm on top.
Image Source: Flickr Creative Commons by CJ Berry
Thinking in Systems
“The problems we have created in the world today will not be solved by the level of thinking that created them.”--Albert Einstein
Image Source: Flickr Creative Commons, by mansionwb
Habits Rubric for Students
Modeling Systems
“Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.”--George Box (Emeritus Professor of Statistics, University of Wisconsin-Madison)
Image Source: Wikipedia
Modeling Systems
We are limited in our capacity to form and reform mental models. Systems modeling allows us to move from “what” to “what if” and make our thinking visible
The basic building blocks of dynamic models are stocks, flows, and loops
Stocks• Stocks are the foundation of any system and are the elements
that you can see, feel, count, or measure• Stocks do not have to be physical
Flows• Stocks change over time through the actions of a flow• A stock is the present memory of the changing flows within
the system
Loops• A feedback loop is formed when changes in a stock affect the
flows into or out of that same stock• Balancing feedback loops are stability seeking and try to keep
a stock at a certain level or within a certain range• Reinforcing feedback loops occur when a system element has
the ability to reproduce itself or grow at a constant fraction of itself
Problem Solving: Pest Control
Insect “A” Population Insect “B” Population
“Seek and Destroy” Model
Is this system really that simple?
Systems Thinking Model
Modeling Influenza
Exploring Models
• Forio NetSim•MIT Sloan• ISEE STELLA Models
Complete List of Models and Simulations
http://bitly.com/systems_thinking_2012
Getting Started
• Partner: Systems Thinking is hard to master alone
• Read: Thinking in Systems by Donella Meadows
• Identify: Articulate the systems in your curriculum
• Create: Draw a simple stock-flow-loop diagram
• Simulate: Explore a systems model using the Habits of Systems Thinkers
Contact Information
• Presentation Resources: http://bitly.com/systems_thinking_2012• Email: [email protected]• Twitter: http://twitter.com/pcwoessner• Blog: http://pwoessner.com/• Skype: pwoessner• Office: 314-995-7375