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1.5 Learning from observed responses:vulnerability, adaptation andresearch needs

The great majority of observed changes are consistent withfunctional understanding and modelled predictions of climateimpacts. Examples of expected responses include infrastructureeffects of melting in the cryosphere, effects of intensifyingdroughts and runoff, and effects of rising sea levels. In marine,freshwater and terrestrial biological systems, changes inmorphology, physiology, phenology, reproduction, speciesdistribution, community structure, ecosystem processes andspecies evolutionary processes are, for the most part, in thepredicted directions. Agricultural crops have shown similartrends in phenology, and management practices along with thespread of pests and diseases coincide with expected responsesto warming. Responses of yields in the few crops with reportedchanges coincide with model predictions. Temperature-sensitive vectors, e.g., ticks, have spread for some humandiseases.Observed changes are prevalent across diverse physical and

biological systems and less prevalent in managed systems andacross many, but not all, geographical regions. While there isevidence of observed changes in every continent, includingAntarctica, much evidence comes from studies of observedchanges in Northern Hemisphere mid- and high latitudes andoften from higher altitudes. Significant evidence comes fromhigh-latitude waters in the Northern Hemisphere as well.Evidence is primarily found in places where warming is mostpronounced. Documentation of observed changes in tropicalregions is still sparse.The evidence for adaptation and vulnerability to observed

climate change is most prevalent in places where warming hasbeen the greatest and in systems that are more sensitive totemperature. Thus, documented changes relating to adaptation inthe Arctic and mountain regions include reduced outdoor andtourism activities, and alterations in indigenous livelihoods inthe Arctic. Responses to climate change, including warming,vary by community and are beginning to be systematicallydocumented (Section 1.3.9).In terrestrial biological systems, special conservation

measures by resource managers are carried out as an adaptationto the impacts of climate change, focusing on spatial strategies,such as ecological networks, short-term refugia, robust corridors,transnational pathways, or potential future protected areas(Opdam andWascher, 2004; Thomas, 2005; Gaston et al., 2006).Conservation management for wetlands undergoing erosion hasbeen addressed as well (Wolters et al., 2005).Documented evidence of adaptation to regional climate trends

in the highly managed systems of agriculture and forestry isbeginning to emerge, such as shifts of sowing dates of annualcrops in Europe (Section 1.3.6). With regard to the assessmentof vulnerability, few studies have documented observed effectsof warming in subsistence agricultural systems in ruralpopulations in developing countries; there are, however, well-documented studies of adaptive responses and vulnerability tolong-term drought in the Sahel.

Vulnerability appears to be high in the case of extreme eventsor exceptional episodes, even in developed countries, asdocumented by the agricultural response to, and excess mortalityoccurring in, the 2003 heatwaves in Europe. The global declinein aggregate deaths and death rates due to extreme weatherevents during the 20th century suggest that adaptation measuresto cope with some of the worst consequences of such eventshave been successful. However, the 2003 European heatwaveand the 2005 hurricane season in the North Atlantic show that,despite possessing considerable adaptive capacity, evendeveloped nations are vulnerable if they do not mobiliseadaptation measures in a timely and efficient manner. In humanhealth, air-conditioning has contributed to declines in death ratesduring the summer in the USA and Europe over the past 30-40 years (Section 1.3.7). Documentation of adaptation andvulnerability in terms of energy and tourism is limited (Section1.3.9).There is a notable lack of geographical balance in the data

and literature on observed changes in natural and managedsystems, with a marked scarcity from developing countries.Regions with climate warming with an accumulation ofevidence of observed changes in physical and/or biologicalsystems are Europe, Northern Asia, north-western NorthAmerica, and the Antarctic Peninsula. Regions with warmingwhere evidence of observed changes is sparse are Africa andLatin America, and evidence is lacking in South-east Asia, theIndian Ocean and regions in the Pacific. Possible reasons for thisimbalance are lack of access by IPCC authors, lack of data,research and published studies, lack of knowledge of systemsensitivity, differing system responses to climate variables, lageffects in responses, resilience in systems and the presence ofadaptation. There is a need to improve the observation networksand to enhance research capability on changes in physical,biological and socio-economic systems, particularly in regionswith sparse data. This will contribute to an improved functionalunderstanding of the responses of natural and managed systemsto climate change.

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• New methods and tools appropriate for regional and localapplication. An increasing focus on adaptation to climatechange at local scales requires new methods, scenarios, andmodels to address emerging issues. New approaches are alsoreconciling scale issues in scenario development; forexample by improving methods of interpreting andquantifying regional storylines, and through the nesting ofscenarios at different scales.

• Cross-sectoral assessments. Limited by data and technicalcomplexity, most CCIAV assessments have so far focusedon single sectors. However, impacts of climate change onone sector will have implications, directly and/or indirectly,for others – some adverse and some beneficial. To be morepolicy-relevant, future analyses need to account for theinteractions between different sectors, particularly at nationallevel but also through global trade and financial flows.

• Collection of empirical knowledge from past experience.Experience gained in dealing with climate-related naturaldisasters, documented using both modern methods andtraditional knowledge, can assist in understanding the copingstrategies and adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities,and in defining critical thresholds of impact to be avoided.

• Enhanced observation networks and improved access toexisting data. CCIAV studies have increasing requirementsfor data describing present-day environmental and socio-economic conditions. Some regions, especially in developingcountries, have limited access to existing data, and urgentattention is required to arrest the decline of observationnetworks. Integrated monitoring systems are needed forobserving human-environment interactions.

• Consistent approaches in relation to scenarios in otherassessments. Integration of climate-related scenarios withthose widely accepted and used by other international bodiesis desirable (i.e., mainstreaming). The exchange of ideas andinformation between the research and policy communitieswill greatly improve scenario quality, usage, and acceptance.

• Improved scenarios for poorly specified indicators. CCIAVoutcomes are highly sensitive to assumptions about factorssuch as future technology and adaptive capacity that atpresent are poorly understood. For instance, the theories andprocesses of technological innovation and its relationshipwith other indicators such as education, wealth, andgovernance require closer attention, as do studies of theprocesses and costs of adaptation.

• Integrated scenarios. There are shortcomings in howinteractions between key drivers of change are represented inscenarios. Moreover, socio-economic and technologicalscenarios need to account for the costs and other ancillaryeffects of both mitigation and adaptation actions, which atpresent are rarely considered.

• Provision of improved climate predictions for near-termplanning horizons. Many of the most severe impacts ofclimate change are manifest through extreme weather andclimate events. Resource planners increasingly need reliableinformation, years to decades ahead, on the risks of adverseweather events at the scales of river catchments andcommunities.

• Effective communication of the risks and uncertainties ofclimate change. To gain trust and improve decisions,awareness-building and dialogue is necessary between thosestakeholders with knowledge to share (including researchers)and with the wider public.

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can produce information of more relevance to watermanagement.

• Impacts of changes in climate variability need to beintegrated into impact modelling efforts.

• Improvements in coupling climate models with the land-usechange, including vegetation change and anthropogenicactivity such as irrigation, are necessary.

• Climate change impacts on water quality are poorlyunderstood. There is a strong need for enhancing research inthis area, with particular reference to the impacts of extremeevents, and covering the needs of both developed anddeveloping countries.

• Relatively few results are available on the economic aspectsof climate change impacts and adaptation options related towater resources, which are of great practical importance.

• Research into human-dimension indicators of climate changeimpacts on freshwater is in its infancy and vigorousexpansion is necessary.

• Impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems (not onlytemperatures, but also altered flow regimes, water levels, andice cover) are not adequately understood.

• Detection and attribution of observed changes in freshwaterresources, with particular reference to characteristics ofextremes, is a challenging research priority, and methods forattribution of causes of changes in water systems needrefinement.

• There are challenges and opportunities posed by the adventof probabilistic climate change scenarios for water resourcesmanagement.

• Despite its significance, groundwater has received littleattention from climate change impact assessments, comparedto surface water resources.

• Water resources management clearly impacts on many otherpolicy areas (e.g., energy projections, nature conservation).Hence there is an opportunity to align adaptation measuresacross different sectors (Holman et al., 2005a, b). There isalso a need to identify what additional tools are required tofacilitate the appraisal of adaptation options across multiplewater-dependent sectors.

Progress in research depends on improvements in dataavailability, calling for enhancement of monitoring endeavoursworldwide, addressing the challenges posed by projected climatechange to freshwater resources, and reversing the tendency ofshrinking observation networks. Broadening access to availableobservation data is a prerequisite to improving understanding ofthe ongoing changes. Relatively short hydrometric records canunderplay the full extent of natural variability and confounddetection studies, while long-term river flow reconstruction canplace recent trends and extremes in a broader context. Data onwater use, water quality, and sediment transport are even lessreadily available.

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• Improving impact and vulnerability assessments within anintegrated assessment framework that includes natural-human sub-system interactions. This requires a stronginter-disciplinary approach and the targeting of the mostvulnerable areas, such as populated megadeltas and deltas,small islands and coastal cities (Section 6.4.3). Improvingsystems of coastal planning and zoning and institutions thatcan enforce regulations for clearer coastal governance isrequired in many countries.

• Developing methods for identification and prioritisation ofcoastal adaptation options. The effectiveness and efficiencyof adaptation interventions need to be considered, includingimmediate benefits and the longer term goal of sustainabledevelopment (Sections 6.6; 6.7).

• Developing and expanding networks to share knowledge andexperience on climate change and coastal managementamong coastal scientists and practitioners.

These issues need to be explored across the range of spatialscales: from local to global scale assessments and, given the longtimescales of sea-level rise, implications beyond the 21st centuryshould not be ignored. Thus this research agenda needs to betaken forward across a broad range of activities from the needsof coastal management and adaptation to global integratedassessments and the benefits of mitigation. While some existingglobal research efforts are pushing in the direction that isrecommended, e.g., the IGBP/IHDP LOICZ Science Plan(Kremer et al., 2004), much more effort is required to achievethese goals, especially those referring to the human, integratedassessment and adaptation goals, and at local to regional scales(Few et al., 2004a).

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7.8 Key uncertainties and research priorities

Because research on vulnerabilities and adaptation potentialsof human systems has lagged behind research on physicalenvironmental systems, ecological impacts and mitigation,uncertainties dominate the subject matter of this chapter. Keyissues include (a) uncertainties about climate-change impacts ata relatively fine-grained geographic and sectoral scale, bothharmful and beneficial, which undermine efforts to assesspotential benefits from investments in adaptation; (b) improvedunderstanding of indirect second and third order impacts: i.e.,the trickle down of primary effects, such as temperature orprecipitation change, storm behaviour change and sea-level rise,through interrelationships among human systems; (c)relationships between specific effects in one location and thewell-being of other locations, through linkages ininflows/outflows and inter-regional trade and migration flows;(d) uncertainties about potentials, costs and limits of adaptationin keeping stressful impacts within acceptable limits, especiallyin developing countries and regions (see Parson et al., 2003);and (e) uncertainties about possible trends in societal, economicand technological change with or without climate change. Aparticular challenge is improving the capacity to provide morequantitative estimates of impacts and adaptation potentials underthe sets of assumptions included in SRES and other climate-change scenarios and scenarios of greenhouse gas emissionsstabilisation, especially for time horizons of interest to decisionmakers, such as 2020, 2050 and 2080.

All of these issues are very high priorities for research in bothdeveloped and developing countries, with certain differences inemphasis related to the different development contexts. As abroad generalisation, the primary impact issue for developedcountries is the possibility of abrupt climate change, which couldcause changes too rapid and disruptive even for a relativelydeveloped country to absorb, at least over a period of severaldecades. High priorities include reducing uncertainty about thepotential for adaptation to cope with climate-change impacts inthe absence of abrupt climate change, considering possibleresponses to threats from low-probability/high consequencecontingencies, and considering interactions between climatechange and other stresses. The primary impact issue fordeveloping countries is the possibility that climate change,combined with other stresses affecting sustainable development,could jeopardise livelihoods and societies in many regions. Highpriorities include improving the understanding of multiple-stresscontexts for sustainable development and improving theunderstanding of climate-sensitive thresholds for components ofsustainable development paths.

Some of these uncertainties call for careful location- andsector-specific research, including better information about thegeographic distribution of vulnerabilities of settlements andsocieties at a relatively localised scale, emphasising especiallyvulnerable areas, such as coastal areas in lower-incomedeveloping countries, and especially vulnerable sectors, such astourism, and possible financial thresholds regarding theinsurability of climate-change impact risks. Others call forattention to cross-sectoral and multi-locational relationships

between climate change, adaptation and mitigation (Chapter 18),including both complementarities and trade-offs in policy andinvestment strategies. Underlying all of these issues for industry,settlement and society are relationships between possibleclimate-change impact vulnerabilities and adaptation responsesand broader processes of sustainable economic and socialdevelopment, which suggest a need for a much greater emphasison research that investigates such linkages. In some cases,because of the necessarily speculative nature of research aboutfuture contingencies, it is likely to be useful to consider pastexperiences with climate variability and analogues drawn fromother experiences with managing risks and adapting toenvironmental changes and stresses (e.g., Abler, 2003). In manyothers, an important step will be to establish mechanisms formonitoring interactions between emerging climate changes andother processes and stresses in order both to learn from theobservations and to provide early alerts regarding potentialproblems or opportunities.

Underlying all of these research needs are often very seriouslimitations on available data to support valid analysis, especiallydata on nature-society linkages and data on relatively detailed-scale contexts in both developed and developing countries (e.g.,Wilbanks et al., 2003). If information about possible impacts,vulnerabilities and adaptation potentials for industry, settlementand society is to be substantially improved, serious attention isneeded towards establishing improved data sources on human-environmental relationships in both developing and developedcountries, improving the integration of physical and earthscience data from space-based and in situ observation systemswith socioeconomic data, and improving the ability to associatedata systems with high-priority questions.

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In many low-income countries, access to electricity is limited.Over half of the world’s population still relies on biomass fuelsand coal to meet their energy needs (WHO, 2006). Thesebiomass fuels have low combustion efficiency and a significant,but unknown, portion is harvested non-renewably, thuscontributing to net carbon emissions. The products of incompletecombustion from small-scale biomass combustion contain anumber of health-damaging pollutants, including small particles,carbon monoxide, polyaromatic hydrocarbons and a range oftoxic volatile organic compounds (Bruce et al., 2000). Humanexposures to these pollutants within homes are large incomparison with outdoor air pollution exposures. Current bestestimates, based on published epidemiological studies, are thatbiomass fuels in households are responsible annually forapproximately 0.7 to 2.1 million premature deaths in low-income countries (from a combination of lower-respiratoryinfections, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lungcancer). About two-thirds occur in children under the age of fiveand most of the rest occur in women (Smith et al., 2004).

Clean development and other mechanisms could requirecalculation of the co-benefits for health when taking decisionsabout energy projects, including the development of alternativefuel sources (Smith et al., 2000, 2005). Projects promoting co-benefits in low-income populations show promise to helpachieve cost-effective, long-term protection from climateimpacts as well as promoting immediate sustainabledevelopment goals (Smith et al., 2000).

8.8 Key uncertainties and research priorities

More empirical epidemiological research on the observedhealth effects of climate change have been published since theTAR, and the few national health impact assessments that havebeen conducted have provided valuable information onpopulation vulnerability. However, the lack of appropriatelongitudinal health data makes attribution of adverse healthoutcomes to observed climate trends difficult. Further, moststudies have focused on middle- and high-income countries.Gaps in information persist on trends in climate, health andenvironment in low-income countries, where data are limitedand other health priorities take precedence for research andpolicy development. Climate-change-related health impactassessments in low- and middle-income countries will beinstrumental in guiding adaptation projects and investments.

Advances have been made in the development of climate–health impact models that project the health effects of climatechange under a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios.The models are still limited to a few infectious diseases, thermalextremes and air pollution. Considerable uncertainties surroundthe projections, including uncertainty about how populationhealth is likely to evolve based on changes in the level ofcommitment to preventing avoidable ill-health, technologicaldevelopments, economic growth and other factors; the rate andintensity of future climate change; uncertainty about how theclimate–health relationship might change over time; anduncertainty about the extent, rate, limiting forces and major

drivers of adaptation (McMichael et al., 2004). Uncertaintiesinclude not just whether the key health outcomes described inthis chapter will improve, but how fast, where, when, at whatcost, and whether all population groups will be able to share inthese developments. Significant advances will occur byimproving social and economic development, governance andresources. It is apparent that these problems will only be solvedover time-frames longer than decades.

Considerable uncertainty will remain about projected climatechange at geographical and temporal scales of relevance todecision-makers, increasing the importance of risk managementapproaches to climate risks. However, no matter what the degreeof preparedness is, projections suggest that some future extremeevents will be catastrophic because of the unexpected intensityof the event and the underlying vulnerability of the affectedpopulation. The European heatwave in 2003 and HurricaneKatrina are examples. The consequences of particularly severeextreme events will be greater in low-income countries. A betterunderstanding is needed of the factors that convey vulnerabilityand, more importantly, the changes that need to be made inhealth care, emergency services, land use, urban design andsettlement patterns to protect populations against heatwaves,floods, and storms.

Key research priorities include addressing the majorchallenges for research on climate change and health in thefollowing ways.

• Development of methods to quantify the current impacts ofclimate and weather on a range of health outcomes,particularly in low- and middle-income countries.

• Development of health-impacts models for projectingclimate-change-related impacts under different climate andsocio-economic scenarios.

• Investigations on the costs of the projected health impacts ofclimate change; effectiveness of adaptation; and the limitingforces, major drivers and costs of adaptation.

Low-income countries face additional challenges, includinglimited capacity to identify key issues, collect and analyse data,and design, implement and monitor adaptation options. There isa need to strengthen institutions and mechanisms that can moresystematically promote interactions among researchers, policy-makers and other stakeholders to facilitate the appropriateincorporation of research findings into policy decisions in orderto protect population health no matter what the climate brings(Haines et al., 2004).

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enhance such an understanding. Likewise, while there isevidence of researchers grappling with various paradigms ofresearch, e.g., disaster risk-reduction and climate change, thereare still few detailed and rich compendia of studies on ‘humandimensions’ interactions, adaptation and climate change (of botha historical, current, and future-scenarios nature). The need formore detailed local-level analyses of the role of multipleinteracting factors, including development activities and climaterisk-reduction in the African context, is evident from much ofthis chapter.

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the priority concerns based on the most likely future outcomes.However, some of the greatest concerns emerge not from themost likely future outcomes but rather from possible ‘surprises’.Growing evidence suggests the ocean-atmosphere system thatcontrols the world’s climate can lurch from one state to another,such as a shutdown of the ‘ocean conveyor belt’ in less than adecade. Certain threshold events may become more probableand non-linear changes and surprises should be anticipated, evenif they cannot be predicted with a high degree of confidence.Abrupt or unexpected changes pose great challenges to ourability to adapt and can thus increase our vulnerability tosignificant impacts (Preston et al., 2006).

The spotlight in climate research is shifting from gradual torapid or abrupt change. There is some risk that a catastrophiccollapse of the ice sheet could occur over a couple of centuriesif polar water temperatures warm by a few degrees. Scientistssuggest that such a risk has a probability of between 1 and 5%(Alley, 2002). Because of this risk, as well as the possibility ofa larger than expected melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, arecent study estimated that there is a 1% chance that global sealevel could rise by more than 4 metres in the next two centuries(Hulbe and Payne, 2001).

10.8.3 Research gaps and priorities

A number of fundamental scientific questions relating to thebuild-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and thebehaviour of the climate system need to be critically addressed.These include (a) the future usage of fossil fuels, (b) the futureemissions of methane (Slingo et al., 2005; Challinor et al., 2006),(c) the fraction of the future fossil-fuel carbon that will remainin the atmosphere and provide radiative forcing versus exchangewith the oceans or net exchange with the land biosphere, (d)details of the regional and local climate change given an overalllevel of global climate change, (e) the nature and causes of thenatural variability of climate and its interactions with forcedchanges, and (f) the direct and indirect effects of the changingdistributions of aerosols.

An effective strategy for advancing the understanding ofadverse impacts of climate change in Asia will requirestrengthening the academic and research institutions to conduct

innovative research on the response of human and naturalsystems to multiple stresses at various levels and scales. Keyspecific research-related priorities for Asia are:• basic physiological and ecological studies on the effects ofchanges in atmospheric conditions;

• enhancing capability to establish and maintain observationfacilities and to collect, and compile, climatic, social andbiophysical data;

• improvement of information-sharing and data networking onclimate change in the region;

• impacts of extreme weather events such as disasters fromflood, storm surges, sea-level rise, heatwaves, plant diseasesand insect pests;

• identification of social vulnerability to multiple stressors dueto climate change and environmental change;

• adaptation researches concerning agro-technology, waterresources management, integrated coastal zone management;pathology and diseases monitoring and control;

• sectoral interaction such as between irrigation and waterresources, agricultural land use and natural ecosystem, waterresources and cropping, water resources and livestockfarming, water resources and aquaculture, water resource andhydropower, sea-level rise and land use, sea-water invasionand land degradation;

• mainstreaming science of climate change impacts, adaptationand vulnerability in policy formulation; and

• identification of the critical climate thresholds for variousregions and sectors.

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developed.More research is required as to how local communitiescan shape adaptation (Kenny, 2005) and of adaptation optionsfor Māori and Indigenous Australian communities, especiallyfor those on traditional lands. Priority should be given toreducing the vulnerability of ‘hotspot’ areas through:

• identification of mechanisms that governments might use toreduce vulnerability,

• better understanding of societal preparedness and of thelimitations and barriers to adaptation,

• better definition of costs and benefits of adaptation options,including benefits of impacts avoided, co-benefits, sideeffects, limits and better modelling,

• analyses of various options for social equity and fairness,the impacts of different discount rates, price incentives,delayed effects and inter-generational equity.

11.8.3 Assessing risks and opportunities ofclimate change for different scenarios

Impact scenarios underpin policy decisions about adaptationoptions and emission reduction targets. The following analyses arerequired for the full range of SRES andCO2 stabilisation scenarios:

• definition of the probabilities of exceeding criticalbiophysical and socio-economic thresholds and assessmentof consequent vulnerability or new opportunities,

• assessment of net costs and benefits for key economicsectors and for each country,

• better modelling of land-use change as climatic boundariesshift, and assessment of the implications for regionaldevelopment, social change, food security and sustainability.

11.8.4 Analysing global trade, immigration andsecurity for climate change outcomes

Impacts of climate change and adaptation elsewhere in theworld are very likely to change global interactions, andespecially trade in commodities. The implications are large forthe strongly export-based economies of Australia and NewZealand. Further studies are needed in order to assess theimpacts of climate change on the region’s competitiveness andexport mix. In the Asia-Pacific region, adverse effects on food,disease, water, energy and coastal settlements are likely (Dupontand Pearman, 2006), but implications for immigration andsecurity in Australia and New Zealand are poorly understood.

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Zebisch, M., T. Grothmann, D. Schröter, C. Hasse, U. Fritsch and W. Cramer, 2005:Climate Change in Germany – Vulnerability and Adaptation of Climate SensitiveSectors. Umweltbundesamt Climate Change 10/05 (UFOPLAN 201 41 253),Dessau, 205 pp.

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Picea abies in south-east Norway in response to climate change: a case studyusing process-based model simulation with field validation. Scand. J. Forest Res.,17, 35-46.

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• reducing water availability and hydropower generation,• increasing desertification and aridity,• severely affecting people, resources and economic activitiesin coastal areas,

• increasing crop pests and diseases,• changing the distribution of some human diseases andintroducing new ones.

One beneficial impact of climate change is likely to be theprojected increase in soybean yields in the south of SouthAmerica. However, the future conversion of natural habitats toaccommodate soybean expansion are very likely to severelyaffect some ecosystems such as the Cerrados, dry and humidChaco, Amazon transition and rainforest, and the Atlantic,Chiquitano and Yungas forests.

If the Latin American countries continue to follow thebusiness-as-usual scenario, the wealth of natural resources thathave supported economic and socio-cultural development in theregion will be further degraded, reducing the regional potentialfor growth. Urgent measures must be taken to help bringenvironmental and social considerations from the margins to thefore of decision-making and development strategies (UNEP,2002).

Climate change would bring new environmental conditionsresulting from modifications in space and time, and in thefrequency and intensity, of weather and climate processes. Theseatmospheric processes are closely interlinked with environmental,social and economic pillars on which development should bebased, and all together may influence the selection of sustainabledevelopment paths. Facing a new climate system and, inparticular, the exacerbation of extreme events, will call for newways to manage human and natural systems for achievingsustainability. Future development in regional, sub-regional andlocal areas must be based on reliable and sufficiently-dense basicdata. Consequently, any action towards sustainable developmentalready commits governments and stakeholders to take the lead inthe development of the information necessary to facilitate theactions needed to cope with the adversities of climate events, fromthe transitional period until a new climate system is established,and to take advantage of the new climate system’s potentialadvantages.

13.8 Key uncertainties and investigationpriorities

The projections mentioned in this chapter rely on the qualityof the available mathematical models. As it can be seen in itsdifferent sections, there are contradictory statements. Suchcontradictions, also observed in other sectoral and regionalchapters, make evident some of the weaknesses of models,especially when the necessary observational background ismissing. In addition to the models’ shortcomings, the use ofsocio-economic scenarios which are not sufficientlyrepresentative of the socio-economic conditions in the region,plus the problems still being faced with downscaling techniques,puts more emphasis on the lack of information as a criticaluncertainty. Additionally, the communication of risk to

stakeholders and decision-makers under uncertainty has beenshown to be a significant weakness that needs to be addressed inthe short term.

In order to promote economic efficiency and policy efficacyfor future adaptation, important multidisciplinary researchefforts are required in order to reduce the information gaps. Inpreparing for the challenges that climate change is posing to theregion in the future, the research priorities should be to resolvethe constraints already identified in terms of facing currentclimate variability and trends, such as:• lack of awareness,• lack of well-distributed and reliable observation systems,• lack of adequate monitoring systems,• poor technical capabilities,• lack of investment and credits for the development ofinfrastructure in rural areas,

• scarce integrated assessments, mainly between sectors,• limited studies on the economic impacts of current andfuture climate variability and change,

• restricted studies on the impacts of climate change onsocieties,

• lack of clear prioritisation in the treatment of topics for theregion as a whole.

In addition, other priorities considering climate change are:• to reduce uncertainties in future projections,• to assess the impacts of different policy options onreducing vulnerability and/or increasing adaptive capacity.

It is also worth stating that we must change the attitude fromplanning to effective operation of observation and alertingsystems. Currently, the typical response to a severe climaticevent consists of intervening after the fact, usually withinsufficient funds to restore the conditions prior to the event. Anecessary change would be to migrate from a culture of responseto a culture of prevention.

In addition, the possibility of abrupt climate change due to aperturbation of the thermohaline circulation opens up a newtheme for concern in the Latin American region, where therehave been no studies about its possible effects. Another relatedproblem is the occurrence of possible climatic ‘surprises’ (evenin a gradually changing climate) when certain thresholds aresurpassed and a negative feedback mechanism is triggered,affecting different sectors and resources. Tropical forests andtropical glaciers are likely candidates for surprises.

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UNEP, 2000: Global Environment Outlook 2. United Nations Environment Pro-gramme. http://www.unep.org/geo2000.

UNEP, 2002: Caribbean Environmental LawDevelopment andApplication: Envi-ronmental legislative and judical developments in the English-speaking Caribbeancountries in the context of compliance withAgenda 21 and the RioAgreements,UNEPRegional Office for LatinAmerica and the Caribbean.

UNEP, 2003a: Global Environment Outlook 3. United Nations Environment Pro-gramme. Earthscan, London, 446 pp.

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UNEP, 2003c: Global Environment Outlook Year Book 2003. United NationsEnvironment Programme, 80 pp.

UNMSM, 2004: Calor intenso y largas sequías. Especials, Perú. http://www.unmsm.edu.pe/Destacados/contenido.php?mver=11 .

Valtorta, S.C., M.R. Gallardo and P.E. Leva, 2004: Olas de calor: impacto sobre laproducción lechera en la cuenca central argentina. Actas X Reunion Argentina deAgrometeorologia. IV. Reunión Latinoamericana de Agrometeorologia, Mar delPlata, Argentina.

van Lieshout, M., R.S. Kovats, M.T.J. Livermore and P. Martens, 2004: Climatechange andmalaria: analysis of the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios.Global Environ. Chang., 14, 87-99.

Vásquez, O.C., 2004: El Fenómeno El Niño en Perú y Bolivia: Experiencias enParticipación Local. Memoria del Encuentro Binacional Experiencias deprevención de desastres y manejo de emergencias ante el Fenómeno El Niño,Chiclayo, Peru. ITDG, 209 pp.

Vásquez-León, M., C.T. West and T.J. Finan, 2003: A comparative assessment of


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climate vulnerability: agriculture and ranching on both sides of the US-Mexicoborder. Global Environ. Chang., 13, 159-173.

Vergara, W., 2005: Adapting to climate change: lesson learned, work in progress,and proposed next step for theWorld Bank in LatinAmerica. Sustainable Devel-opment Working Paper No. 25, World Bank, Washington, District of Columbia,56 pp.

Viddi, F. and S. Ribeiro, 2004: Ecology and conservation of dolphins in SouthernChile. Cetacean Society International. Whales Alive!, XIII, No. 2. http://csi-whalesalive.org/csi04208.html.

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Villamizar,A., 2004: Informe técnico de denuncia sobre desastre ecológico en elDesparramadero de Hueque. Edo. Falcón. Presentado ante La Fiscalía Generaly la Defensoría del Pueblo, República de Venezuela, 25 pp.

Villers, L. and I. Trejo, 2004: Evaluación de la vulnerabilidad en los sistemasforestales. Cambio Climático: Una Visión desde México, J. Martínez and A.Fernández Bremauntz, Eds., SEMARNAT e INE, México, 239-254.

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Vinocur, M., 2005: Adaptation of farmers to climate variability and change incentral Argentina: a case study. Abstracts 6th Open Meeting of the Human Di-mensions of Global Environmental Change Research Community, 9-13 Octo-ber, 2005, Bonn.

Vinocur, M.G., R.A. Seiler and L.O. Mearns, 2000: Predicting maize yield re-sponses to climate variability in Córdoba,Argentina. Abstracts of InternationalScientific Meeting on Detection and Modelling of Recent Climate Change andits Effects on a Regional Scale, Tarragona, Spain, 29–31 May, 2000.

Vuille, M., S.R.S. Bradley, M.Werner and F. Keimig, 2003: 20th century climatechange in the tropicalAndes: observations and model results.Climatic Change,59, 75-99.

Walton, M., 2004: Neoliberalism in Latin America: good, bad or incomplete?Lat. Am. Res. Rev., 39, 165-183.

Warner, J., 2006: El Niño platforms: participatory disaster response in Peru.Dis-asters, 30, 102-117.

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October, 55-57.Waylen, P.R. and G. Poveda. 2002. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and aspects ofwestern South America hydro-climatology. Hydrol. Process., 16, 1247-1260.

Wehbe, M., H. Eakin, R. Seiler, M. Vinocur, C. Ávila and C.Marutto, 2006: Localperspectives on adaptation to climate change: lessons from Mexico and Ar-gentina. AIACCWorking Paper No. 39, 39 pp.

Werth, D. and R. Avissar, 2002: The local and global effects of Amazon defor-estation. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 8087, doi:10.1029/2001JD000717.

WHO, 2000: Vegetation Fires. World Health Organization, Fact Sheet No. 254.August 2000, 3 pp. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs254/en/index.html.

WHO/UNEP/WMO, 2000: The WHO-UNEP-WMO health guidelines for veg-etation fire events. Int. Forest Fire News, 22, 91-101. http://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de/iffn/org/who/who_1.htm.

Williams, R.J., R.T. Bryan, J.N. Mills, R.E. Palma, I. Vera and F. de Velásquez,1997: An outbreak of hantavirus pulmonary síndrome in western Paraguay. Am.J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 57, 274-282.

Windevoxhel, N. and G. Sención, 2000: Mangrove forests in Nicaragua and sub-tropical forest in Guatemala. Sustainable Forest Management and Global Cli-mate Change: Selected Case Studies From the Americas, M.H.I. Dore and R.Guevara, Eds., Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 281 pp.

WMO, 2007: Volume A: Observing Stations. World Meteorological OganizationPublication No. 9. http://www.wmo.ch/pages/prog/ www/ois/volume-a/vola-home.htm.

World Bank, 2002a: Desarrollo en riesgo debido a la degradación ambiental:Comunicado de prensa (Development at risk from environmental degradation:News release), No. 2002/112/S.

World Bank, 2002b: Sustainable groundwater and aquifer management.WorkshopApril 23, 2002, TheWorld Bank Group.

World Bank, 2002c: World Development Report 2002: Building Institutions forMarkets. TheWorld Bank, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 228 pp.

World Bank, 2006: World Development Report 2006: Equity and Development.TheWorld Bank, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 336 pp.

Wright, K.R. and A. Valencia Zegarra, 2000: Machu Picchu: A Civil EngineeringMarvel. American Society of Civil Engineers Press, Virginia, 144 pp.

WWF, 2004: Deforestation threatens the cradle of reef diversity.WorldWide Fundfor Nature, 2 December 2004. http://www.wwf.org/.

Yáñez-Arancibia,A. and J.W. Day, 2004: Environmental sub-regions in the Gulf ofMexico coastal zone: the ecosystem approach as an integrated management tool.Ocean Coast. Manage., 47, 727-757.

Young, E., 2001: State intervention and abuse of the commons: fisheriesdevelopment in Baja California Sur, Mexico. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr., 91, 283-306.


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freshwater resources (see Section 14.4.1), the accumulationof fuel in forest ecosystems susceptible to wildfire (see Box14.1), and continued introductions of invasive species withthe potential to disrupt agriculture and ecosystem processes(see Section 14.2.2, 14.2.4). In the sectors that are the subjectof the most intense human management (e.g., health,agriculture, settlements, industry), it is possible that changesin technology or organisation could exacerbate or ameliorateimpacts of climate change (see Section 14.4.9).

• Indirect impacts of climate change are poorly understood. Ina world of ever-increasing globalisation, the future of NorthAmerican people, economies and ecosystems is connectedto the rest of the world through a dense network of culturalexchanges, trade, mixing of ecosystems, human migrationand, regrettably, conflict (see Section 14.3). In thisinterconnected world, it is possible that profoundly importantimpacts of climate change on NorthAmerica will be indirectconsequences of climate change impacts on other regions,especially where people, economies or ecosystems areunusually vulnerable.

• Examples of North American adaptations to climate-relatedimpacts are abundant, but understanding of the options forproactive adaptation to conditions outside the range ofhistorical experience is limited (see Section 14.5).All of these areas potentially interact, with impacts that are

unevenly distributed among regions, industries, andcommunities. Progress in research and management is occurringin all these areas. Yet stakeholders and decision makers needinformation immediately, placing a high priority on strategiesfor providing useful decision support in the context of currentknowledge, conditioned by an appreciation of the limits of thatknowledge.

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- the role of coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, coralreefs and beaches in providing natural defences againstsea-level rise and storms;

- establishing the response of terrestrial upland and inlandecosystems, including woodlands, grasslands andwetlands, to changes in mean temperature and rainfall andextremes;

- considering how commercial agriculture, forestry andfisheries, as well as subsistence agriculture, artisanalfishing and food security, will be impacted by thecombination of climate change and non-climate-relatedforces;

- expanding knowledge of climate-sensitive diseases insmall islands through national and regional research, notonly for vector-borne diseases but for skin, respiratory andwater-borne diseases;

- given the diversity of ‘island types’ and locations,identifying the most vulnerable systems and sectors,according to island type.

• In contrast to the other regions in this assessment, there isalso an absence of demographic and socio-economicscenarios and projections for small islands. Nor have futurechanges in socio-economic conditions on small islands beenwell presented in existing assessments (e.g., IPCC, 2001;Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2003). Developingmore appropriate scenarios for assessing the impacts ofclimate change on the human systems of small islandsremains a challenge.

• Methods to project exposures to climate stimuli and non-climate stresses at finer spatial scales should be developed,in order to further improve understanding of the potentialconsequences of climate variability and change, particularlyextreme weather and climate events. In addition, furtherresources need to be applied to the development ofappropriate methods and tools for identifying criticalthresholds for both bio-geophysical and socio-economicsystems on islands.

• Our evaluation of adaptation in small islands suggests thatthe understanding of adaptive capacity and adaptation optionsis still at an early stage of development. Although severalpotential constraints on, as well as opportunities for,adaptation were identified, two features became apparent.First, the application of some adaptation measures commonlyused in continental situations poses particular challenges in asmall island setting. Examples include insurance, where thereis a small population pool although the propensity for naturaldisasters is high and where local resilience may beundermined by economic liberalisation. Second, someadaptation measures appear to be advocated particularly forsmall islands and not elsewhere. Examples includeemigration and resettlement, the use of traditional knowledge,and responses to short-term extreme events as a model foradaptation to climate change. Results of studies of each ofthese issues suggest some ambiguities and the need for furtherresearch, including the assessment of practical outcomes thatenhance adaptive capacity and resilience.

• With respect to technical measures, countries may wish topay closer attention to the traditional technologies and skills

that have allowed island communities to cope successfullywith climate variability in the past. However, as it isuncertain whether the traditional technologies and skills aresufficient to reduce the adverse consequence of climatechange, these may need to be combined with modernknowledge and technologies, where appropriate.

• Local capacity should be strengthened in the areas ofenvironmental assessment and management, modelling,economic and social development planning related to climatechange, and adaptation and mitigation in small islands. Thisobjective should be pursued through the application ofparticipatory approaches to capacity building andinstitutional change.

• Access to reliable and affordable energy is a vital element inmost small islands, where the high cost of energy is regardedas a barrier to the goal of attaining sustainable development.Research and development into energy options appropriate tosmall islands could help in both adaptation and mitigationstrategies whilst also enhancing the prospect of achievingsustainable growth.

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the impacts of climate change, the social dimensions of forest-dependent communities indicate both a limited communitycapacity and a limited potential to perceive climate change as asalient risk issue that warrants action. Climate change messagesare often associated with environmentalism andenvironmentalists, who have been perceived by many residentsof resource-dependent communities as an oppositional politicalforce. Risk perceptions tend to be higher for women than for men,the higher concern levels of womenmay either be stifled or simplybe unexpressed in a highly male-dominated environment(Davidson et al., 2003).

Anthropological research suggests that the scale and noveltyof climate changes are not the sole determinants of degree ofimpact (Orlove, 2005). Societies change their environments, andthus alter their own vulnerability to climate fluctuations. Theexperience of development of the Colorado River Basin in theface of environmental uncertainty clearly illustrates that impactsand interventions can reverberate through the systems in ways thatcan only be partially traced and predicted (Pulwarty et al., 2005).

Accounting for future economic and social trends involvesproblems of indeterminacy (imperfectly understood structures andprocesses), discontinuity (novelty and surprise in social systems),reflexivity (the ability of people and organisations to reflect onand adapt their behaviour), and framing (legitimately-diverseviews about the state of the world) (Berkhout et al., 2002;Pulwarty et al., 2003). Case studies reveal that there exists adiversity of local or traditional practices for ecosystemmanagement under environmental uncertainty. These include rulesfor social regulation, mechanisms for cultural internalisation oftraditional practices and the development of appropriate worldviews and cultural values (Pretty, 2003).

Social and cultural limits to adaptation are not well researched:Jamieson (2006) notes that a large segment of the U.S. populationthink of themselves as environmentalists but often vote forenvironmentally negative candidates.Althoughmany societies arehighly adaptive to climate variability and change, vulnerability isdynamic and likely to change in response to multiple processes,including economic globalisation (Leichenko and O’Brien, 2002).The Inuit, for example, have a long history of adaptation tochanging environmental conditions. However, flexibility in groupsize and group structure to cope with climate variability andunpredictability is no longer a viable strategy, due to settlement inpermanent communities. Also, memories and hunting narrativesare appearing unreliable because of rapid change. Furthermore,there are emerging vulnerabilities, particularly among the youngergeneration through lack of knowledge transfer, and among thosewho do not have access to monetary resources to purchaseequipment necessary to hunt in the context of changing conditions(Ford et al., 2006).

17.5 Conclusions

Adaptation has the potential to alleviate adverse impacts, aswell as to capitalise on new opportunities posed by climatechange. Since the TAR, there has been significantdocumentation and analysis of emerging adaptation practices.

Adaptation is occurring in both the developed and developingworlds, both to climate variability and, in a limited number ofcases, to observed or anticipated climate change. Adaptation toclimate change is seldom undertaken in a stand-alone fashion,but as part of broader social and development initiatives.Adaptation also has limits, some posed by the magnitude andrate of climate change, and others that relate to financial,institutional, technological, cultural and cognitive barriers. Thecapacities for adaptation, and the processes by which it occurs,vary greatly within and across regions, countries, sectors andcommunities. Policy and planning processes need to take theseaspects into account in the design and implementation ofadaptation. The review in this chapter suggests that a highpriority should be given to increasing the capacity of countries,regions, communities and social groups to adapt to climatechange in ways that are synergistic with wider societal goals ofsustainable development.

There are significant outstanding research challenges inunderstanding the processes by which adaptation is occurringand will occur in the future, and in identifying areas forleverage and action by government. Many initiatives onadaptation to climate change are too recent at the time of thisassessment to evaluate their impact on reducing societalvulnerability. Further research is therefore needed to monitorprogress on adaptation, and to assess the direct as well asancillary effects of such measures. In this context there is alsoa need for research on the synergies and trade-offs betweenvarious adaptation measures, and between adaptation and otherdevelopment priorities. Human intervention to manage theprocess of adaptation in biological systems is also not wellunderstood, and the goals of conservation are contested.Hence, research is also required on the resilience of socio-ecological systems to climate change. Another key area whereinformation is currently very limited is on the economic andsocial costs and benefits of adaptation measures. In particular,the non-market costs and benefits of adaptation measuresinvolving ecosystem protection, health interventions, andalterations to land use are under-researched. Information is alsolacking on the economy-wide implications of particularadaptations on economic growth and employment.

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repercussions from mitigation for adaptation and vice versa aremostly marginal at the global level, although they may besignificant at the regional scale. The effects on demand or totalemissions are likely to be a small fraction of the global baseline.However, in some domains, such as water and land markets, andin some locales, the inter-relationships might affect localeconomies. Quantitative evaluation of direct trade-offs is missing:the metrics and methods for valuation, existence of thresholds inlocal feedbacks, behavioural responses to opportunities, risks andadverse impacts, documentation of the baseline and projectscenarios, and scaling up from isolated, local examples tosystemic changes are part of the required knowledge base.

At a global or international level, defining a socially,economically and environmentally justifiable mix of mitigation,adaptation and development remains difficult and a researchneed. While IAMs are relatively well developed, they can onlyprovide approximate estimates of quantitative inter-relationshipsat a highly aggregated scale. Fourteen experts in estimating thesocial cost of carbon rated their estimates as low confidence, dueto the many gaps in the coverage of impacts and valuationstudies, uncertainties in projected climate change, choices in thedecision framework and the applied discount rate (Downing etal., 2005). Estimates of the marginal abatement cost range from−2% to +8% of GDP, while estimates of the marginal damagesavoided span three orders of magnitude (see Chapter 20). Themarginal cost of adaptation has not been calculated, althoughsome estimates assume a reduction in impacts due to adaptation(see Chapter 17). Combining the marginal abatement cost,marginal damages avoided and the marginal cost of adaptationinto an optimal strategy for climate response is subject toconsiderable uncertainty that is unlikely to be effectivelyreduced in the near term (see Harvey, 2006).

A systematic assessment with a formal risk framework thatguides expert judgement and grounded case studies, andinterprets the sample of published estimates, is required ifpolicy-makers wish to identify the benefits of climate policy(e.g., Downing et al., 2005). Existing estimates of damagesavoided are based on a sample of sectors exposed to climatechange and a small range of climate stresses. Betterunderstanding across a matrix of climate change and exposure isrequired (Chapter 20; Fisher et al., 2007). Socio-economicconditions and locales that are likely to experience early andsignificant impacts (often called ‘hotspots’) should be a highpriority for additional studies. The extent to which targets thatare set globally are consistent with national or local mixes ofstrategies requires a concerted effort. The distributional effectswould be an important factor in evaluating tolerable windowsand trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation. The lack ofhigh-quality studies of the benefits of mitigation, and the socialcost of carbon, limits confidence in setting targets for stabilisation.

The relationship between development paths and adaptation-mitigation inter-relationships requires further research.Unintended consequences, synergies and trade-offs might beunique to some development paths; equally, they might bepossible in many different paths. Existing scenarios ofdevelopment paths are particularly inadequate in framing someof the major determinants of vulnerability and adaptation(Downing et al., 2003). Exogenous projections of GDP are a

particular obstacle for modelling the inter-relationships betweenadaptation and mitigation. Few global scenarios address localfood security in realistic ways (Downing and Ziervogel, 2005,but see related discussion of Millennium Development Goals inChapters 9 and 20). Scenarios of abrupt climate change, streamsof extreme events, and realistic social, economic and politicalresponses would add insight into adaptive management (the ‘act,then learn, then act again’ approach). Few reference scenariosexplicitly frame issues related to inter-relationships betweenadaptation and mitigation (e.g., from the extent to which a globaldecision-maker makes optimising judgements to the institutionalsetting for local projects to exploit synergies). While the directenergy input in large infrastructure projects may be small,including a shadow price for climate change externalities mayshift adaptation portfolios. An assessment of actual shifts inenergy demand and ways to reduce emissions is desirable. Mostintegrated assessments are at the large scale of regions to worldviews, although local dialogues are beginning to exploresynergies (Munasinghe and Swart, 2005).

The feasibility and outcome of many of the inter-relationshipsdepend on local conditions andmanagement options.Asystematicassessment and guidance for mitigating potentially adverseeffects would be helpful. The nature of links between publicpolicy and private action at different scales, and prospects formainstreaming integrated policy, are worth evaluating. Many ofthe consequences depend on environmental processes that maynot be well understood; for example, the resilience of systems toincreased interannual climate variability and long-term carbonsequestration in agro-forestry systems.

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Zickfeld, K. and T. Bruckner, 2003: Reducing the risk of abrupt climate change:emissions corridors preserving the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. IntegratedAssessment Journal, 4, 106-115.


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This chapter has offered a glimpse into where to turn forguidance in confronting and managing the risks associated withclimate change and climate variability. Indeed, the climateproblem is a classic risk management problem of the sort withwhich decision-makers are already familiar. It is critical to seerisk as the product of likelihood and consequence, to recognisethat the likelihood of a climate impact is dependent on naturaland human systems, and to understand that the consequence ofthat impact can be measured in terms of a multitude ofnumeraires (currency, millions at risk, species extinction, abruptphysical changes and so on). These expressions of risk aredetermined fundamentally by location in time and space.

This chapter also points to synergies that exist at the nexus ofsustainable development and adaptive capacity, primarily bynoting for the first time that many of the goals of sustainabledevelopment match the determinants of adaptive capacity (and,for that matter, mitigative capacity). Planners in the decision-intensive ministries around the world are therefore alreadyfamiliar with the generic mechanisms by which includingclimate change into their risk assessments of developmentprogrammes can complicate their decisions. Adding climate tothe list of multiple stresses which can impede progress inmeeting their goals in their specific context is thus not a newproblem. Climate change, even when its impacts are amplifiedby the effects of other stresses, is just one more thing: one moreproblem to confront, but also one more reason to act in waysthat promote progress along multiple fronts. Exploitation of thesynergies is not automatic, so care must be taken to avoiddevelopment activities that can exacerbate climate change orimpacts just as care must be taken to take explicit account ofclimate risks.

The United Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChange commits governments to avoiding “dangerousanthropogenic interference with the climate system”, butgovernments will be informed in their deliberations of what is oris not ‘dangerous’ only by an approach that explicitly reflectsthe rich diversity of climate risk across the globe and into thecoming decades instead of burying this diversity into incompleteaggregate indices of damages. Risk management techniqueshave been designed for such tasks; but it is important to notethat risk-based approaches require exploration of theimplications of not only the central tendencies of climate changethat are the focus of consensus-driven assessments of theliterature, but also the uncomfortable (or more benign) futuresthat reside in the ‘tails’ of current understanding. Viewing theclimate issue from a risk perspective can offer climate policydeliberations and negotiations new insight into the synergies bywhich governments can promote sustainable development,reduce the risk of climate-related damages and take advantage ofclimate-related opportunities.

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and the UK all reported excess mortality during the heatwaveperiod, with total deaths in the range of 35,000 (Hemon andJougla, 2004; Martinez-Navarro et al., 2004; Michelozzi et al.,2004; Vandentorren et al., 2004; Conti et al., 2005; Grize et al.,2005; Johnson et al., 2005). In France, around 60% of theheatwave deaths occurred in persons aged 75 and over (Hemonand Jougla, 2004). Other harmful exposures were also causedor exacerbated by the extreme weather, such as outdoor airpollutants (tropospheric ozone and particulate matter) (EEA,2003), and pollution from forest fires.A French parliamentary inquiry concluded that the health

impact was ‘unforeseen’, surveillance for heatwave deaths wasinadequate, and the limited public-health response was due toa lack of experts, limited strength of public-health agencies,and poor exchange of information between publicorganisations (Lagadec, 2004; Sénat, 2004).In 2004, the French authorities implemented local and

national action plans that included heat health-warningsystems, health and environmental surveillance, re-evaluationof care of the elderly, and structural improvements toresidential institutions (such as adding a cool room) (Laaidi etal., 2004; Michelon et al., 2005). Across Europe, many othergovernments (local and national) have implemented heathealth-prevention plans (Michelozzi et al., 2005; WHORegional Office for Europe, 2006).Since the observed higher frequency of heatwaves is likely

to have occurred due to human influence on the climate system(Hegerl et al., 2007), the excess deaths of the 2003 heatwavein Europe are likely to be linked to climate change.

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the scale and type of threats to coral reefs in both continentaland small-island situations.Recognising that coral reefs are especially important for

many Small Island states, Wilkinson (2004) notes that reefs onsmall islands are often subject to a range of non-climate impacts.Some common types of reef disturbance are listed below, withexamples from several island regions and specific islands.1. Impact of coastal developments and modification of shorelines:• coastal development on fringing reefs, Langawi Island,Malaysia (Abdullah et al., 2002);

• coastal resort development and tourism impacts inMauritius (Ramessur, 2002).

2. Mining and harvesting of corals and reef organisms:• coral harvesting in Fiji for the aquarium trade (Vunisea,2003).

3. Sedimentation and nutrient pollution from the land:• sediment smothering reefs in Aria Bay, Palau (Golbuua etal., 2003) and southern islands of Singapore (Dikou andvan Woesik, 2006);

• non-point source pollution, Tutuila Island, AmericanSamoa (Houk et al., 2005);

• nutrient pollution and eutrophication, fringing reef,Réunion (Chazottes et al., 2002) and Cocos Lagoon, Guam(Kuffner and Paul, 2001).

4. Over-exploitation and damaging fishing practices:• blast fishing in the islands of Indonesia (Fox and Caldwell,2006);

• intensive fish-farming effluent in Philippines (Villanuevaet al., 2006);

• subsistence exploitation of reef fish in Fiji (Dulvy et al.,2004);

• giant clam harvesting on reefs, Milne Bay, Papua NewGuinea (Kinch, 2002).

5. Introduced and invasive species:• non-indigenous species invasion of coral habitats in Guam(Paulay et al., 2002).

There is another category of ‘stress’ that may inadvertently resultin damage to coral reefs – the human component of poorgovernance (Goldberg and Wilkinson, 2004). This canaccompany political instability; one example being problemswith contemporary coastal management in the Solomon Islands(Lane, 2006).

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2006), which had to borrow US$20.8 billion from theGovernment to fund the Katrina residential flood claims. In NewOrleans alone, while flooding of residential structures causedUS$8 to 10 billion in losses, US$3 to 6 billion was uninsured. Ofthe flooded homes, 34,000 to 35,000 carried no flood insurance,including many that were not in a designated flood risk zone(Hartwig, 2006).Beyond the locations directly affected by the storm, areas that

hosted tens of thousands of evacuees had to provide shelter andschooling, while storm damage to the oil refineries andproduction facilities in the Gulf region raised highway vehiclefuel prices nationwide. Reconstruction costs have driven up thecosts of building construction across the southern USA, andfederal government funding for many programmes was reducedbecause of commitments to provide financial support forhurricane damage recovery. Six months after Katrina, it wasestimated that the population of New Orleans was 155,000, withthis number projected to rise to 272,000 by September 2008;56% of its pre-Katrina level (McCarthy et al., 2006).

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as using netting and screens on windows and house entrances toprevent bites from mosquitoes and other insects that havebecome more prevalent.Another example is a study of the links between malaria and

agriculture that included participation and input from a farmingcommunity in Mwea division, Kenya (Mutero et al., 2004). Theapproach facilitated identification of opportunities for long-termmalaria control in irrigated rice-growing areas through theintegration of agro-ecosystem practices aimed at sustaininglivestock systems within a broader strategy for ruraldevelopment.

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