jeffrey rogers ilar
TRANSCRIPT
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Udpronuiheh`hty Ica``dbkds hbUdsdaric Tshbk Bobcumab Wrhmatds
Fdjjrdy Uokdrs, Wc.N.
Cumab Kdbomd Ydqudbihbk IdbtdrEay`or Io``dkd oj Mdnhihbd
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Jaitors iobtrheuthbk to hrrdpronuiheh`hty
Wue`hiathob ehas Joius ob poshthvd rdsu`ts
Joius ob surprhshbk rdsu`ts
Hbsujjhihdbt samp`d shzds
Woor ndsirhpthob/noiumdbtathoboj mdtcons
Otcdrs
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Bobcumab prhmatds provhnd ubhqud abnhbnhspdbshe`d mond`s oj cumab eho`okyabn nhsdasd
Hbjdithous nhsdasds abn otcdr patcokdbs
Bduroeho`oky abn edcavhor
Dbnoirhbo`oky abn mdtaeo`hsm
Udpronuithvd eho`oky
Otcdr jhd`ns oj stuny
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Koa`s oj prhmatd rdsdaric
Tsd bobcumab prhmatds to provhnd
ubhqud hbjormathob aeout cumab
nhsdasd abn hts trdatmdbt Tsd bobcumab prhmatds to ubndrstabn
jubnamdbta` aspdits oj cumab eho`oky
Hbvdsthkatd prhmatd eho`oky hb tcdsdrvhid oj eashi prhmato`oky abn
iobsdrvathob
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Zarhous jaitors hbj`udbid
rdpronuiheh`hty hb prhmatd rdsdaric
Nhjjdrdbids hb mdtcons abnprotoio`s aiross `aeoratorhds
Yma`` samp`d shzds
Kdbdthi nhjjdrdbids amobk stunysuefdits
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Zarhous jaitors hbj`udbid
rdpronuiheh`hty hb prhmatd rdsdaric
Nhjjdrdbids hb mdtcons abnprotoio`s aiross `aeoratorhds
Yma`` samp`d shzds
Kdbdthi nhjjdrdbids amobk stunysuefdits
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Nrhvdrs oj samp`d shzd hb prhmatd
rdsdaric
Wrhmatd rdsdaric hs dxpdbshvd
Ytunhds ard ndshkbdn iardju``y
Yamp`d shzds ard ojtdb ldpt quhtd sma``
Ichmpabzdd stunhds oj
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Nrhvdrs oj samp`d shzd hb prhmatd
rdsdaric
Wrhmatd rdsdaric hs dxpdbshvd
Ytunhds ard ndshkbdn iardju``y
Yamp`d shzds ard ojtdb ldpt quhtd sma``
Ichmpabzdd stunhds
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Nrhvdrs oj samp`d shzd hb prhmatd
rdsdaric
Wrhmatd rdsdaric hs dxpdbshvd
Ytunhds ard ndshkbdn iardju``y
Yamp`d shzds ard ojtdb ldpt quhtd sma``
Ichmpabzdd stunhds oj b=1
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Zarhous jaitors hbj`udbid
rdpronuiheh`hty hb prhmatd rdsdaric
Nhjjdrdbids hb mdtcons abnprotoio`s aiross `aeoratorhds
Yma`` samp`d shzds
Kdbdthi nhjjdrdbids amobk stunysuefdits
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Kdbdthi nhjjdrdbids amobk stuny
suefdits
Nhjjdrdbids amobk spdihds
Nhjjdrdbids amobk popu`athobs whtchb
a spdihds
Nhjjdrdbids amobk hbnhvhnua`s whtchba popu`athob
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Mafor prhmatd spdihds usdn hb rdsdaric
Ucdsus maiaqud
Iybomo`kus maiaqud
Eaeoob
Marmosdt
Whktah maiaqud
Ajrhiab krddb mobldy
Otcdrs
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Nhjjdrdbids amobk prhmatd spdihds
Wrostatd eho`oky oj O`n [or`n
mobldys vs Bdw [or`n mobldys
Eaeoobs (iobthbuous erddndrs) vs.
rcdsus maiaquds (sdasoba` erddndrs)
Marmosdts abn ichmdrhsm
p>47 kdbds abn pcarmaiokdbdthis
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Ytrddt dt a` (577;)
EMI Kdbomhis 36>37
Ucdsus maiaqud
Iybomo`kus maiaqud
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Kdbdthi nhjjdrdbids amobk
popu`athobs whtchb a spdihds
Hbnhab vs Ichbdsd rcdsus maiaquds
AHNY1:61>38 (5775)
Ndv Wsyicoeho`916>8 (188;)
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Ytrddt dt a` (577;)
EMI Kdbomhis 36>37
Ucdsus maiaqud
Iybomo`kus maiaqud
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Kdbdthi nhjjdrdbids amobk
popu`athobs whtchb a spdihds
Maurhthab vs. Hbnobdshab iybomo`kus maiaquds
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Kdbdthi nhjjdrdbids amobk
popu`athobs whtchb a spdihds
Maurhthab vs. Hbnobdshab iybomo`kus maiaquds
Udk ^ox Wcarm:96981 (5715)
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Kdbomd Uds5161;>: (5711)
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Kdbdthi nhjjdrdbids amobk eaeoob
popu`athobs
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Kdbdthi nhjjdrdbids amobk
popu`athobs whtchb a spdihds
Wrovhnd va`uae`d nhvdrshty as somd
popu`athobs whtchb a spdihds ard edttdr
mond`s oj spdihjhi qudsthobs tcab otcdr
popu`athobs (Hbnhab vs. Ichbdsd rcdsus)
Wrovhnd potdbtha` proe`dms hb tdrms oj
rdpronuiheh`hty hj orhkhb oj stuny abhma`s
hs bot hndbthjhdn abn rdportdn
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Cow muic kdbdthi varhathob hs tcdrd
whtchb rdsdaric io`obhds oj
rcdsus maiaquds ?
59
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YBW Nhsiovdry hb Ucdsus Maiaquds
b = 145 rcdsus maiaqud wco`d kdbomd
sdqudbids
1>> Hbnhab-orhkhb, 3 Ichbdsd-orhkhb
b = 38 at 54-97x iovdrakd
b = :9 at :-3x iovdrakd
YBWs ia``dn ushbk YBW^oo`s (J. Xu< I. Sud)
54
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YBW Nhsiovdry hb Ucdsus Maiaquds
b = 145 rcdsus maiaqud wco`d kdbomd
sdqudbids
1>> Hbnhab-orhkhb = >4.4 mh``hob YBWs
3 Ichbdsd-orhkhb = 4.84 mh``hob YBWs
5:
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YBW Nhsiovdry hb Ucdsus Maiaquds
b = 145 rcdsus maiaqud wco`d kdbomd
sdqudbids
1>> Hbnhab-orhkhb = >4.4 mh``hob YBWs
3 Ichbdsd-orhkhb = 4.84 mh``hob YBWs
1777Kdbomds6 1785 cumabs = 93.7 mh``hob
5;
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7
4777777
17777777
14777777
57777777
54777777
97777777
7 17 57 97 >7 47 :7
Bumedrojbovd`YBZs
Bumedr oj samp`ds
Cumab1777 kdbomds Wh`ot 1 abn Hbnhab orhkhb rcdsus samp`ds
Ucdsus :S XUH Wh`ot 1 IDT Wh`ot 1
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Abbotathobs oj rcdsus [KY YBWs
Bob-sybobymous YBWs 541,;;5
Ytop ionob kahbdn >,::3
Ytop ionob `ost 5;5 Ytart ionob varhabt :51
Yp`hid aiidptor varhabt 1,>41
Yp`hid nobor varhabt 1,;8>
ota` oj a`` YBWs 41,>18,78>
Abbotathobs ushbk ZDW abn UcdsuseasdA`ab Carrhs
97
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Abbotathobs oj rcdsus [KY YBWs
Bob-sybobymous YBWs 541,;;5
Ytop ionob kahbdn >,::3
Ytop ionob `ost 5;5 Ytart ionob varhabt :51
Yp`hid aiidptor varhabt 1,>41
Yp`hid nobor varhabt 1,;8>
ota` oj a`` YBWs 41,>18,78>
Abbotathobs ushbk ZDW abn UcdsuseasdA`ab Carrhs
91
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Kdbds whtc stop ionob varhabts
hb rcdsus maiaquds
Cumab Nhsdasd Assoihathob
WUNM4, IAWB17 NhaedtdsYEJ5 Icariot-Marhd-^ootc
IAIBA1 Bduroe`astoma
[NU9: K`auioma
INL57 Jabiobh abdmha
KAL Warlhbsobs nhsdasd
WLN1@5 Wo`yiysthi lhnbdy nhsdasd
MXO14A Ndajbdss
A`ab CarrhsCumab assoi. jrom OMHM 95
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FAYWDU prdnhithobs
^cdrd ard 111,:>; rcdsus YBWs tcat ja`` hbto
DBIOND trabsirhpthob jaitor ehbnhbk mothjs
Ucdsus varhabts `hld`y to rdnuid ehbnhbk Tshbk poshthob wdhkct siords oj 0-7.1, wd jhbn
53,31: YBWs prdnhitdn to ndirdasd ^J ehbnhbk
Ucdsus varhabts `hld`y to hbirdasd ehbnhbk
Tshbk siords oj 27.1, wd jhbn 5,>4> rcdsus YBWs
prdnhitdn to hmprovd ^J ehbnhbk
Yhmob [chtd
99
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Iobi`ushobs
Ucdsus maiaquds dxcheht chkc `dvd`soj kdbdthi varhathob eotc whtchb abnedtwddb popu`athobs
Iybomo`kus maiaquds a`so nhsp`ayshkbhjhiabt `dvd`s oj kdbdthi varhathobwhtchb abn edtwddb popu`athobs
^chs varhaeh`hty whtchb abn edtwddbpopu`athobs iab abn nods hbj`udbidrdsdaric rdsu`ts
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Opportubhthds
[d bow cavd tcd opportubhty to icaraitdrhzd
kdbdthi varhathob amobk hbnhvhnua` bobcumab
prhmatds hb rdsdaric io`obhds
Udsdaricdrs iab hb prhbihp`d sd`dit rdsdaric
suefdits easdn ob kdbotypds jor spdihjhi
jubithoba``y shkbhjhiabt po`ymorpchsms
Hj nobd routhbd`y, tchs wou`n prdsumae`y
hmprovd rdpronuiheh`hty oj prhmatd stunhds
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eut wd must sth`` iobshndr abn aiioubt jor tcd
sdkrdkathbk varhathob hb tcd ojjsprhbk oj
kdbdthia``y dbkhbddrdn prhmatds
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Hmp`hiathobs abn Edst Wraithids
jor Udpronuiheh`hty
Udsdaricdrs must
Dva`uatd tcd eailkroubn abn kdbdthis
oj tcdhr stuny abhma`s
Icoosd popu`athobs abn hbnhvhnua`s
approprhatd to tcdhr rdsdaric qudsthob
Matic ob kdbotypd or rabnomhzd tcd kdbdthis ?
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98Wcoto irdnht6 F. Iamdrob
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p = 7.71> p = 7.71;
Yamp`d Yhzd b = 59:p-va`uds anfustdn jor mu`thp`d tdsthbk
Uokdrs dt a`. Mo`. Wsyic. 136 ;77-; (5719) >7
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>1
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Ordkob prhmatd idbtdr rcdsus maiaquds
Jawidtt, Ndttmdr, Uyab, Iamdrob, Uokdrs
-:
->
-5
7
5
>
AA AI II
YBW>374
@atdbiy to @davd Motcdr
->
-9
-5
-1
7
1
5
9
AA AI II
YBW>374
Dsiapd Edcavhor
b=4>9
p va`uds aiioubt jor tdsthbk mu`thp`d YBWs
Udp`hiathob oj IUCU1 djjdit obmaiaqud abxhous tdmpdramdbt
p = 7.77: p = 7.773
>5
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Kdbdthi varhathob hb bobcumab
prhmatds usdn jor rdsdaric
Kdbdthi nhjjdrdbids iab ed BOHYD tcat musted mabakdn abn iobtro``dn
or
Kdbdthi nhjjdrdbids iab ed YHKBA@ tcat iabed usdn to abswdr hmportabt qudsthobs oj
kdbdthi iausds abn mdicabhsms
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Wotdbtha` Bdar-tdrm Koa`s
tcat wh`` Edbdjht Udpronuiheh`hty
Ndjhbd tcd kdbdthi iomposhthob oj tcd
most hmportabt rdsdaric prhmatds Edttdr wco`d kdbomd assdme`hds abn
abbotathobs
Edttdr hbjormathob aeout kdbdthi varhathob
abn kdbd dxprdsshob amobk spdihds,
popu`athobs abn hbnhvhnua`s
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Wotdbtha` Bdar-tdrm Koa`s
tcat wh`` Edbdjht Udpronuiheh`hty
Ndvd`op spdihjhi abn ndtah`dn hbjormathobaeout jubithoba` kdbdthi varhathob tcat
ajjdits rdsdaric outiomds Udsdaricdrs may icoosd to sd`dit abhma`s tcat
scard tcd samd a``d`ds jor jubithoba``y shkbhjhiabtkdbds (to rdmovd varhathob)
Hb otcdr ihriumstabids, tcd hbi`ushob oj abhma`swhtc varhous kdbotypds wh`` provhnd rdsu`ts tcatard roeust to tcd djjdits oj suic varhathob
A l ` n t
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Ailbow`dnkmdbts
Eay`or Io``dkd oj Mdnhihbd
K`orha Jawidtt
Mutcuswamy Uavddbnrab
Navhn Uho Ndhros
Ju`h Xu
Icdbk Sud
A`ab Carrhs
Yhmob [chtd
Mhld Nacnou`h
Ybdla Uavddbnrab
Nobba Muzby
Uhicarn Khees
[aschbktob Tbhv.
Fhm Icdvdrun
Tbhv. oj Whttseurkc
Funy Iamdrob
Tbhv. oj [hsiobshb
Navhn OIobbor
Anam Drhisdb
Uokdr [hsdmab
Bdn La`hb
Fobatcab O`dr
Abnrdw Jox
Uhicarn Navhnsob
Tbhv. oj dxas - Coustob
Shaomhbk @hu
Jubnhbk
BHC-Nhv. Iomp. Mdnhihbd (OUHW)
BHC-BHMC
BHC-BCKUH
Eay`or Io``dkd oj Mdnhihbd >:
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