john brost nws amarillo
TRANSCRIPT
Preparing For Decision Support
Where We Are Today – And How We Can Prepare For Tomorrow
John BrostNWS Amarillo
Where Are We Going?
NOAA’s Nati onal Weather Service Strategic Plan 2010Page 6 (Under “The Plan” Secti on): “Operati onally impact based decision support ‐
means our forecasters will require an expanded understanding of the weather related decisions ‐users must make. Forecasters will focus less on improving increasingly accurate model output and more on maintaining conti nuous situati onal awareness, interpreti ng informati on and providing decision support for high impact events‐ .”
Where Are We Now?
• Created a simple and short survey to get feedback
• 5 questions with 4 “follow up” questions• Focused on skills relating to decision support
services• Uses a “comfort scale” from 1 to 10• Online and Anonymous• ~190 responses from SR– (Survey not yet approved for the enti re NWS )
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28
57
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Question 1: How Comfortable Are you in Providing a Phone Briefing for a Single Decision Maker During a High Impact Event?
Comfort Level
Num
ber O
f Res
pons
es
Average Value Of Responses = 8.61
0
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8
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10
8
Reasons Why Forecasters May Not Feel Completely Comfortable Hosting a Phone Briefing
Num
ber
Of R
espo
nses
Additional Comments/Suggestions
• Prefer video briefings (SKYPE, Google)• Diffi culty in knowing what to brief if they do
not know what decisions are being made• Toastmasters (public speaking group) and ROC
a huge help
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
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Question 2: How Comfortable Are You in Providing a Conference Call Brief-ing to a Large Group of Decision Makers During a High Impact Event? This
Typically Includes a Question and Answer Period.
Comfort Level
Num
ber O
f Res
pons
es
Average Value Of Responses = 7.86
0
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Reasons Why Forecasters May Not Feel Completely Comfortable Hosting a Conference Call
Num
ber
Of R
espo
nses
Additional Comments/Suggestions
• Controlling background noise• “I don’t know who I’m talking to” – causes
uncertainty/nervousness• Briefi ngs mainly conducted by MIC/WCM due
to shift work time constraints• Confident in participating – not as confident
leading the call
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33
Question 3: How Comfortable Are You In Using GoToMeeting?
Comfort Level
Num
ber O
f Res
pons
es
Average Value Of Responses = 6.18
I have not had adequate training to use GoToMeeting
I do not have experience using GoToMeeting or similar software
Other forecasters in my office know how to use GoToMeeting and I allow them to set up the program for me
I have not used GoToMeeting recently and I am out of practice
0
10
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42
2725
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Reasons Why Forecasters May Not Feel Completely Comfortable Using GoToMeeting
Num
ber O
f Res
pons
es
Additional Comments/Suggestions
• Not so much GoToMeeting but creati ng the Power Point presentati on/graphics that are challenging – hard to get graphics from AWIPS to P.C.
• Don’t forget about HMT’s!!!• GoToMeeting is rarely used for briefi ngs OR
we use GoTo once a week• Computer lock ups/poor internet connecti vity
are a concern• Had to learn to use it ourselves
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
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Question 4: How Comfortable Are You In Providing On-Site Support?
Comfort Level
Num
ber O
f Res
pons
es
Average Value Of Responses = 5.48
0
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Reasons Why Forecaster May Not Feel Completely Comfortable Providing On-Site Support
Nu
mb
er
Of R
esp
ons
es
Additional Comments/Suggestions
• Training and Time (frequently mentioned)• Using NWS Laptops is a pain due to security
soft ware issues• This is a rare (if any) request OR we get this
request oft en• Staffi ng concerns if 1 or 2 people leave
operations to provide support• IMET or Management provide this service
0
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123
74
107
127
7
Question 5: Do You Think That There Are Any Challenges In Place That Im-pair Our Ability To Provide These Types Of Specialized Services To Our Core
Partners And Decision Makers?
Num
ber O
f Res
pons
es
Training is a challenge. We could use more training for these
services.
Relationships are a challenge. Building relationships
with our partners is difficult and we do not always understand their
needs. Likewise, they do not always understand what we are capable of
providing.
Mindset is a challenge. Some fore-casters in our agency feel these types of services are not part of
their job and thus they are reluctant to perform these services.
Time is a challenge. These services take time to com-plete and we are already
busy performing our routine duties.
I do not think there are any challange
Training
Relationships
Mindset
Time
None
Additional Comments/Suggestions
• Resources and staffi ng (frequently menti oned)• Advanced Planning a key• Communicati on/outreach – partners are unaware
that we can do this – we need to listen more• Asked to make decisions rather than provide
informati on – “I resent being put in that decision”• “The scienti fi c expert is increasingly left behind
in the new NWS DS era”• “Accuweather will answer the phone aft er 4 PM”• Inexperienced forecasters do not have
opportuniti es to provide these infrequent services
Dean Turney (EM of Deaf Smith Co.) – "Our biggest fear is a bioterrorist attack on the cattle industry here or a major chemical release. We have approximately 1 million head of cattle within a 30 mile radius of Hereford. It would scare you to know what chemicals come through the area on trains and trucks everyday."
The Hereford Experiment
Hereford
Cattle Feedyards
Railroad Tracks
• Average sale price of cow is ~ $0.80 to $1.00 per pound
• Average weight of feeder cow ~ 500 to 1,200 lbs (call it an even 1,000)
• Average sale price of a cow ~ $1,000.00• 1 Million Cows at $1,000.00 = $1 Billion
(A few hundred thousand cows in Hereford feed yards every day)
Fun Cow Facts
Based on the distribution of the expenditure on food, it is estimated that for every dollar lost in disasters by a farmer, the allied industries (labor, packaging, transportation, and advertising) lose an additional four dollars, on average. FEMA/USDA
Let’s Play “What If”
• Major train derailment in Hereford dumps hazardous chemicals into the air– What is the fi rst priority for responders?
• PEOPLE!
• That means thousands if not hundreds of thousands of cows will either die from chemical poisoning – or become sick enough that they can not be sold
Are We Prepared
• What if this happens at 3 am? Do we call in the guy/gal who is good at on-site support?
• We waste precious ti me if we are not ALL adequately prepared/trained – including understanding the science!
• Is this scenario even plausible and worth worrying about?
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Average29,000
30,000
31,000
32,000
33,000
34,000
35,000
36,000
37,000
38,000
32,435
34,360
32,185 32,231
33,912
35,714
36,855
35,274
33,882
31,886
33,873
Total Chemical Releases Per Year In US* * Data Courtesy of the National Response Center
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Average0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
1,3321,241 1,200
1,074
1,276
1,5321,451
1,390
1,649
1,306 1,345
Total Chemical Releases Per Year Involving Railroads In US** Data Courtesy of the National Response Center
Weather Causes Ag Impacts Too!
• Hurricane Floyd that swept across parts of North Carolina in 1999.– As a result of fl oods approximately 28,000 hogs,
2.1 million chickens, and 800,000 turkeys drowned. (FEMA/USDA)
• Young animals with minimal fur are extremely vulnerable to freezing conditions.
• Maybe it won’t happen in Hereford, but it will happen somewhere
• Maybe it’s not a Chem release. Could be fires, weather disaster, terrorist … etc.
• How Do We Prepare?
Looks Plausible To Me
Plan
Train
ExerciseExecute
Evaluate
DS = Decision Support Wheel O’ Preparedness – Adapted From Mark Fox and NASA
Post Storm Eval Team
Post Mortems
Partner Feedback/Table Tops
Service Assessments
DS WES Case
EM On-Site Drills/Simulations
Local Office SimsSupport for Prescribed Burns
Adopt County / OutreachIncident
Action Plan
Table Tops
DS Binder
Decision Support Symposium
Watches/Warnings/Advisories/ForecastsConference
Calls/GoToMeeting On-Site Support
Local Support From WFO
Multi-Media Briefs
ICS Courses
Comet/LMS Courses
Technology (How to use equipment)
Societal Impacts
(WAS*IS)
What About The Challenges
• 67% said Time is a challenge– Largest response must be addressed
• How? ER Mets? Reducing Products? 1 Forecaster per shift ?
• 65% said Training is a challenge• 57% said Mindset is a challenge• 39% said Relati onships are a challenge
Let’s Focus on Mindset?
• How do we convince people to provide Decision Support Services?
• I have 3 ideas:
1. Directi ves (Writt en - or Verbal from MIC)1. Changes behavior – not minds (can have reverse eff ect)
2. Educati on1. Eff ecti ve but takes ti me to do research/develop training
(WAS*IS?)2. University Students – get them while they are young!
3. Relati onships1. Very Eff ecti ve – but relati onship building can be diffi cult
Plan
Train
ExerciseExecute
Evaluate
Post Storm Eval Team
Post Mortems
Customer Feedback/Table Tops
Service Assessments
DS WES Case
EM On-Site Drills/Simulations
Local Office SimsSupport for Prescribed Burns
Watches/Warnings/Advisories/ForecastsConference
Calls/GoToMeetingOn-Site Support
Local Support From WFO
Adopt County / OutreachIncident
Action Plan
Table Tops
DS Binder
Decision Support Symposium
Directives Education
Relationships
ICS Courses
Comet/LMS Courses
Technology (How to use equipment)
Societal Impacts
(WAS*IS)
How Does This Help?
• Because “Why” is important to scientists– “Why are we doing this?”
• Relationships lead to empathy– “I want to help you because I know what you do is
important”
The Purpose
Knowing Why
Relationship
Accomplishing the Mission
