keer2012: design for the hypernanotech age

Design for

KEER2012 International ConferenceKansei Engineering and Emotion Research

Charles L. OwenInstitute of DesignIllinois Institute of Technology

May 23, 2012

Department of Industrial Design, NCKUNational Cheng Kung University,Taiwan Institute of Kansei,Japan Society of Kansei EngineeringPenghu, Taiwan

the Hypernanotech Age

Design Process

What Should We Know?Design Today

• Analysisinsight

• Synthesisideas

MethodologicalFocus• Strategy

the Concept• Tactics

the Details

Design today: primarily Synthetic;concerned with form-giving Tactics

Field

Analysis Synthesis

Strategy

Tactics

Design

Process

What Should We Know?Design Tomorrow

More concern forunderstandingusers and system

FocusMore concern forbuilding conceptbefore details –

What should it be?

Design tomorrow:moving from Syn-thetic/ Tactical togreater balance

Field

Analysis Synthesis

Strategy

Tactics

Analysis Synthesis

Strategy

Tactics

Design

Tomorrow

Today

Design

Changing Needs

What Should We Know?Problems ⇒|⇐ Solutions

• Cultural evolution• Population growth

and movements

EmergingTechnologies• Scientific

advancement• Socio/political/

environmentalincentives

Matching ChangingNeeds with Emerg-ing Technologiesframes opportunitiesfor Design

Formulation

Emerging

TechnologiesCha

nging

Needs

Changing Needs

What Should We Know?Non-linear Future

• Diminishingresources

• Climate change

EmergingTechnologies• Doubling

phenomenon• Exponential

technologies

Dramatic changeand technologicaldevelopment willdefine the future

Focus

Below: Carbon nanotube representation

Above: Super typhoon Megi, October 2010Above: Dust storm, American midwest, 1930’s

Below: San Diego Center for Algae Biotechnology

Nanotechnology Biotechnology

Aquifer depletion Cyclonic Super Storms

Crucial Needs

What Should We Know?Global Problems ⇒|⇐ Global Solutions

• Environmentalupheaval

• Water, food andenergy crises

ExponentialTechnologies• Hyper-science

advancements• Global economic

development

Changing Needs willbecome Crucial.Emerging Technolo-gies will becomeExponential.

Formulation

Exponential

TechnologiesCru

cial

Needs

Climate Change

What Should We Expect?Crucial Needs

• Extreme weatherevents

• Land, sea and airimpacts

DiminishingResources• Population unrest• Socio/economic

crises

Population growthspawns massiveenvironmentalchange

PopulationGrowth

ClimateChange

DiminishingResources

Cyclonic Super Storms

Rising Ocean Levels

Flooding

Mud Slides

Drought

Heat Waves

Eco-zone Movements

Wild Fires

Rare Mineral Exhaustion

Aquifer Depletion

Petroleum Depletion

Crop Failure

Arable Land Reduction

Tropical Forest Destruction

Loss of Biodiversity

Wild Fisheries Exhaustion

Forces

World Watch Institute

What Should We Expect?Two Relevant References

State of the World2012.Moving TowardSustainableProsperity.New York:W.W. Norton, 2012.

Lester R. BrownPlan B 4.0. Mobilizing to SaveCivilization.New York:W.W. Norton, 2009.

Forces

Book series from 1984 to 2012 Book series from Plan B (2003) to Plan B 4.0(2009)

What Should We Expect?Flooding

Increased LocalRain and Snowfall

20% to 40% morewater in heaviestprecipitation

Intense precipita-tion events willoverwhelm normalflood controls

Forces

UNICEF/MogwanjaPakistan flooding, September 2010

Change in Patternsof Precipitation

Annual local increases as wellas decreases

Drier where HighlyPopulated

What Should We Expect?Drought

Subtropical: dry High-latitude: wet

Projected Severity• Palmer Drought

Severity Index • today: -.5 to +.5 • 2030: -4.0 to -8.0

extreme drought

Extreme droughtwill severelyimpact most worldregions

Forces

Associated PressLake bed dried out by drought, Yunnan Province, China

National Center for Atmospheric ResearchProjected drought conditions 2030’s

What Should We Expect?Exponential Technological Growth

Roughly every 2years:

Moore’s Law "Every two years,the number of transistors that canbe placed on an integrated circuitdoubles."

• Same size,power doubles

• Same power,size halves

• Same price,speed doubles

1

2

4

8

16

32

64

128

256

512

1,024

2,048

4,096

8,192

16,384

32,768

65,536

131,072

262,144

524,288

1,048,576

2,097,152

4,194,304

8,388,608

16,777,216

33,554,432

134,217,728

268,435,456

536,870,912

1,073,741,824

2,147,483,648

4,294,967,206

8,589,934,592

17,179,869,184

34,359,738,368

68,719,476,736

137,438,953.472

274,877,906,944

549.755,813,888

1,099,511,627,776

2,199,023,255,552

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

2012

67,000,000D

oubl

ings

Year Date

4,398,046,511,104

12

4

8

two years

Forces

double

1966196419621960

Information Technology

What Should We Expect?Exponential Technologies

• Artificial Intelligence• Computation

Systems• Networks & Sensors

Biotechnology

• Robotics• Digital Manufac-

turing

Innovation Converges to Hyper-Nanotechnology

ConvergingInnovation

Networks &Sensors

Digital Manu-facturing

Autonomous Transport

Personalized Education

Cloud Computing

Crowd Sourcing

Internet of Things

Smart Energy Grid

Bioinformatics

Genetic Engineering

Robotic Home Care

Agricultural Robotics

3D Printing

Infinite Computing

Lab on a Chip

AI Cloud Diagnostics

Nano Processes

Nanomaterials

Robotics

Biotech-nology

Medical Technology

Forces

ArtificialIntelligence

InformationTechnology

Nanotech-nology

MedicalTechnology

Mechanotechnology

Nanotechnology

ComputationSystems

Mechano-technology

Peter H. Diamandisand Steven Kotler

What Should We Expect?Two Relevant References

Abundance. The Future IsBetter than YouThink. New York:Free Press, 2012.

Michio KakuPhysics of theFuture. How Science WillShape HumanDestiny and OurDaily Lives by theYear 2100.New York:Doubleday, 2011.

Forces

Ice Nucleation

What Should We Expect?Biotechnology

• Pure water dropletsfreeze: -40 °C

• Droplets with dust:freeze: > -40°C

• Droplets with rightbacteria: -5 °C +

Rain Formation• Rain requires

ice crystals • Clouds are usually

warmer than -40°C

New studies showbacteria can createrain in clouds

Forces

New York Times May 25, 2010Cultured bacteria: Pseudomonas syringae

B. C. Christner, Louisiana State UniversityGreen-stained Pseudomonas syringae in ice crystals

What Should We Expect?Biotechnology

Bioprecipitation• Rain induced

when needed• Rain deflected

when not needed

Genetic modifica-tions could opti-mize ice nucleationand water balancewith plant ecosys-tems

Forces

jimsbikeblog.files.wordpress.com/2009/Rain storm over the American Sonoran desert.


Aquifer Depletion

Petroleum Depletion

Crop Failure



Biodiversity


Population

Growth

Climate

Change

Diminishing

Resources


Rising Ocean Levels

FloodsM

ud Slides

Drought

Heat Waves

Insect Infestations

Wild Fires

Exponential

TechnologiesCru

cial N

eeds

Geneti

c Enginee

ring

Converg

ing

Innovatio

n

Network

s &

Senso

rs

Digital M

an-

ufactu

ring

Auton

omou

s Tra

nspo

rt

Perso

naliz

ed E

duca

tion

Cloud

Compu

ting

Crowd

Sourci

ng

Inter

net o

f Thin

gs

Smar

t Ene

rgy

Grid

Bioinfo

rmat

ics

Roboti

c Hom

e Car

e

Agricu

ltura

l Rob

otics

3D P

rintin

g

Infini

te C

ompu

ting

Lab

on a

Chip

AI Clou

d Diag

nosti

cs

Nano

Proce

sses

Nanom

ater

ials

Robotics

Biotech-

nology

Artific

ial

Intellig

ence Info

rmati

on

Technology

Nanotec

h-

nologyMed

ical

Technology

Computation

System

s

Mechan

o-

technology

Planning

Designing

design designdesigndesig

n

desi

gn

designdesignde

sign

tene

tte

net

tenettenet tenet

tenet

tenettenet

SyntheticAnalytic

de

sign

de

sign

de

signte

net

tenet

tenettenet tenet

tenet

tene

tte

net

designdesign design

desi

gn

Strategic

Tactical

de

sign

FormativeFiltration

StrategicPlans Policy

PlanConceptualPlan

ExperiencePlan

FinancialPlan

Implemen-tationPlan

DescriptiveSpecification

OperationalSpecification

TacticalSpecifications

What Should We Do?An Expanded Design Process

Formidable prob-lems and powerfulsolutions demanddesign mediation

Full Model

Expand DesignBoundaries• Policy • Experience

Interpret NanotechInteraction between• Technology and

culture• Technology and

environment

EvaluativeFiltration

Project

Process

Product

What Should We Do?The Project

FrameProjects• Associated

needs• Potential

technologies

Crucial needs / exponential technologies

Framing


Aquifer Depletion

Petroleum Depletion

Crop Failure



Biodiversity


Population

Growth

Climate

Change

Diminishing

Resources


Rising Ocean Levels

FloodsM

ud Slides

Drought

Heat Waves

Insect Infestations

Wild Fires

Exponential

TechnologiesCru

cial N

eeds

Geneti

c Enginee

ring

Converg

ing

Innovatio

n

Network

s &

Senso

rs

Digital M

an-

ufactu

ring

Auton

omou

s Tra

nspo

rt

Perso

naliz

ed E

duca

tion

Cloud

Compu

ting

Crowd

Sourci

ng

Inter

net o

f Thin

gs

Smar

t Ene

rgy

Grid

Bioinfo

rmat

ics

Roboti

c Hom

e Car

e

Agricu

ltura

l Rob

otics

3D P

rintin

g

Infini

te C

ompu

ting

Lab

on a

Chip

AI Clou

d Diag

nosti

cs

Nano

Proce

sses

Nanom

ater

ials

Robotics

Biotech-

nology

Artific

ial

Intellig

ence Info

rmati

on

Technology

Nanotec

h-

nologyMed

ical

Technology

Computation

System

s

Mechan

o-

technology

What Should We Do?The Process

Develop full systemsolutions

Form-Making

Planning

Designing

design designdesigndesig

n

desi

gn

designdesignde

sign

tene

tte

net

tenettenet tenet

tenet

tenettenet

SyntheticAnalytic

design

design

desi

gnte

net

tenet

tenettenet tenet

tenet

tene

tte

net

designdesign design

desi

gn

Strategic

Tactical

de

sign

Evaluative

FiltrationForm

ative

Filtrat

ion

Tenet Filtration - Formative• Principles,• Guidelines• Ways of thinking

PlanningConcept formation

DesigningDetail resolution

Tenet Filtration -Evaluative

What Should We Do?Tenets: Principles, Guidelines, Filters

Set directions andverify compliance

Filters

Planning

Designing

design designdesigndesign

desi

gn

designdesignde

sign

tene

tte

net 3

tenet 2tenet tenet

tenet

tenet 6tenet

SyntheticAnalytic

ten

ettenet 6

tenettenet tenet

tenet 2

tene

t3

ten

et

designdesign design

desig

n

Strategic

Tactical

de

sign

Design Tenet 2Human-centeredFocus

Design Tenet 3Environment-centered Concern

Design Tenet 6Bias for Adaptivity

design

design

desi

gn

Evaluative

FiltrationForm

ative

Filtrat

ion

Create systemsolutions in concept and detail

tenetdesign

What Should We Do?Core Planning and Design

Form-making

Planning

Designing

design design

design

desi

gn

designdesignde

sign

tene

tte

net

tenet tenettenet

tenettenet

SyntheticAnalytic

ten

ettenet

tenettenet tenet

tenet

tene

tte

net

designdesign design

desi

gn

Strategic

Tactical

de

sign

design

desi

gn

design

Planning• Strategic thinking• Analysis and

Synthesis • Concept

development

Designing• Tactical thinking• Analysis and

Synthesis • Detail

development

What Should We do?The Product

Communicate solu-tions at strategicand tactical levels

Form

StrategicPlans

PolicyPlan

ConceptualPlan

ExperiencePlan

FinancialPlan

Implemen-tationPlan




Strategic Level: Plans,product of Planning• Policy • Concept • Experience • Finance • Implementation

Tactical Level: Specification, product of Designing• Description • Operation

What Should We Do?Expanded Capabilities

Expand horizons toaccommodate newtechnologies andpolicy planning

Form

StrategicPlans

PolicyPlan

ConceptualPlan

ExperiencePlan

FinancialPlan

Implemen-tationPlan




Policy Plan• Policy synthesis• System Framework

Experience Plan• Aesthetic

benchmarks• Mood flows

Operational Specification• Process instruction• Training guides

Mies van der Rohe

What Should We Do?Insight from the Past

Final Director,Bauhaus Berlin

Conference withNational Socialists(Nazi party)

April 12, 1933(4 months beforethe Bauhaus wasclosed)

interpret the exponential technologies

"Where do you stand ... on the esthetic problemsthat have emerged as a result of technical andindustrial development?

Why do you ask?

Because work on such problems is the majorconcern of the Bauhaus.

Are these problems not dealt with at the institutesof technology?

No. At the institutes of technology these fields aresplit into too many special disciplines, and oneshould take just exactly the opposite course.These problems of esthetics can only be dealtwith when taken all together."

Hans M. Wingler. The Bauhaus. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1969.

Feed Forward

Use Planningor Designing tools

What Should We Do?A Refined Advanced Education Model

Fuse research andapplication, plan-ning and designing

Fusion

Planning

Designing

ApplicationMDesMDM

ResearchMS

PhD

Strategic

Tactical

StrategicBuild or usePlanning tools

TacticalBuild or useDesigning tools

ResearchPlanning

Theory/Methods

AppliedPlanning

Theory/Methods

ResearchDesign

Theory/Methods

AppliedDesign

Theory/MethodsResearchBuild Planningor Designing tools

Application

Planning

SummaryExpanded Horizons

Policy synthesis• human centered• environment

centered

Designing• Kansei aesthetics• Full system

sensoryexperience

The time is rightfor next steps inthe design profes-sions and designeducation

What we should know

• Climate change is causing problems. • Technological capabilities are growing rapidly.• Design is changing with changing needs and

emerging technologies.

What we should expect

• Environmental needs will become crucial.• Technological power will grow exponentially.

What we should do

• Interpret the new technologies for planning and design.

• Expand professional design planning to workwith policy.

• Extend design education to include Kanseiaffective design and policy synthesis.

Design for

KEER2012 International ConferenceKansei Engineering and Emotion Research

Charles L. OwenInstitute of DesignIllinois Institute of Technology

May 23, 2012

Visualization software: Amgraf Corporation

the Hypernanotech Age