keith tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) Н.К.Тови m.a., phd, ceng, mice, cenv

CRedCarbon Reduction 1

Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) Н.К.Тови M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnvEnergy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre

School of Environmental Sciences, UEA. Rotary Club of Norwich

District `1070 Assembly: May 9th 2009

The Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future: A Rotarians Guide - Hard Choices Ahead

Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal


Increasing Occurrence of Drought


Increasing Occurrence of DroughtIncreasing Occurrence of Flood


19792003

Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region

• NASA satellite imagery

• في الجليد الصيفالشمالي القطب

المنطقة تغطيةالقطبيه

• الصور ناساالفضاءيه

Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

•20% reduction in 24 years

في ٪ 20• سنوات 24تخفيض

المناختغير كاب القطبيه الجليديه على 2003 - 1979 اثار

4


Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

potential contribution to Supply in 2020

costs in 2020

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (curently

35%)Available now (but is

now running out)

~2p + but recent trends put figure

much higher

UK becomes net importer of

gas in 2004

Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed

Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020

5

CRedCarbon Reduction

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 30% (France 80%) - (currently 20% and falling)

new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed

2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"

Traditional Coal ~40%- coal could

supply 40 - 50% by 2020

Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS carbon trading will affect

this

6

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

potential contribution to Supply in 2020

costs in 2020

Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018.

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (curently

35%)Available now (but is now

running out)

~2p + but recent trends put figure

much higher

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Inst

all

ed C

ap

aci

ty (

MW

)

New Build ?

ProjectedActual

Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be available at

scale required until mid 2020s6


On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation

~ 2p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable



~ 2p


Cost in2020


Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on

average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and

Ipswich



~ 2p

Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential

2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020

Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill,

Norfolk.

Rated capacity 5.5 kW



Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly

15+ p


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020

Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 400 sq km - But energy needed to make PV takes up

to 10 years to pay back in UK.



Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly

10+ p

Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas

50% + available, but research needed in some areas

2.5 - 4


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generatejust over 5% of UK

electricity needs.

Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

• Compressed gas from methane from waste.



10+ p

Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas

2.5 - 4

Wave/Tidal Stream

100% + ultimately

techology limited - major development unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%

4 - 8p


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020




10+ p


2.5 - 4


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020

Wave/Tidal Stream

100% + ultimately


4 - 8p




10+ p


2.5 - 4

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention

notcosted


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Output (MWh)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

01/0

1/20

02

15/0

1/20

02

29/0

1/20

02

12/0

2/20

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26/0

2/20

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12/0

3/20

02

26/0

3/20

02

09/0

4/20

02

23/0

4/20

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07/0

5/20

02

21/0

5/20

02

04/0

6/20

02

18/0

6/20

02

02/0

7/20

02

16/0

7/20

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30/0

7/20

02

13/0

8/20

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27/0

8/20

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10/0

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24/0

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02

08/1

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22/1

0/20

02

05/1

1/2

002

19/1

1/2

002

03/1

2/20

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17/1

2/20

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31/1

2/20

02

Out

put

(MW

h pe

r da

y)

Output 78 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only

4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables southSave 40000 tonnes of CO2

Wave/Tidal Stream

100% + ultimately


4 - 8p



10+ p


2.5 - 4

Wave/TidalStream

100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020

4 - 8p

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention

notcosted

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020



Actual Nuclear

Projected Nuclear

Actual Coal with FGD

Opted Out Coal

Renewables

New Nuclear?

New Coal ???

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

MW

• Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015

• New Nuclear assumes completing 1 nuclear station each year beyond 2018• New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2018

There is a looming capacity

shortfall

Even with a full deployment of

renewables.

A 10% reduction in demand per

house will see a rise of 7% in total demand

- Increased population decreased

household size

Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security


Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass.

Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?

Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? •then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly

•unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY

If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Our Choices: They are difficult


Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is YES

By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS

for around 70% of our heating and electricity

imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria

Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.


How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?

5 hot air balloons per person per year.

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

"Nobody made a greater mistake

than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)


Raising Awareness

• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.

• Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)

• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year.

• Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles

At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai

上海徐汇区高第一小学

• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.

School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya


21

The Behavioural Dimension

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

kWh

in p

erio

d

No of people in household

Electricity Consumption

1 person

2 people

3 people

4 people

5 people

6 people

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

1

% D

iffer

ence

from

Ave

rage

Variation in Electricity Cosumption1 person 2 people 3 people4 people 5 people 6 people

Social Attitudes towards energy consumption have a profound effect on actual consumption

Data collected from 114 houses in Norwich

For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER] can vary by as much as 9 times.

When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times


Involve the local Community -The BroadSol Project

Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs


House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar

Panels

- less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!

It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?

House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February


Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: Solar Photovoltaic

Photovoltaic cells are still expensive, but integration of ideas is needed.

A church not connected to grid e.g. Fishley , with services only once a week PV would be a sensible option. BUT English Heritage???????

Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year. Average house in

Norwich consumes ~ 3779 kWh per year, in Market Harborough, 5214 kWh per year


Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: The Heat Pump

Any low grade source of heat may be used• Coils buried in garden 1 – 1.5 m deep• Bore holes• Lakes/Rivers are ideal• Air can be used but is not as good

• Best performance if the temperature source between outside source and inside sink is as small as possible.

• Heat pump delivers 3, 4, or even 5 times as much heat as electricity put in.


26

2626

26

Micro CHP

Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions

• Micro CHP plant for homes are being trialled.

• Replaces the normal boiler

• But there is a problem in summer as there is limited demand for heat – electrical generation will be limited.

• Backup generation is still needed in summer unless integrated with solar photovoltaic?

• In community schemes explore opportunity for multiple unit provision of hot water in summer, but only single unit in winter.


2727

6 kW Proven Turbine powering a Heat Pump providing heating for Parish Kirk, Westray

Horizontal Axis Mini Wind


Involve the local Community• The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a

wind turbine.

• On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity.

• Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward.

• Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015.


• Which can spread the message• Engage with Schools• Dispel myths• Use simple messages that people understand often monetary

values mean more• Think about our own actions.

– Tumble drying – once a week amounts to £25 a year• Can we car share when going to District Council?

– Four people travelled separately from North Norfolk to District 1080 Assembly. They would have emitted and extra 75kg CO2 extra compared to travelling together at a cost of £30 extra in fuel.

• Energy Security issues will be just as important as Carbon reduction in the UK.

• Energy Security will increasingly affect us in next 10 years• Global warming will increasingly affect our fellow citizens of the

planet in the developing world in the next 10 years• Addressing Energy Security by taking small steps now will also

help with Global Warming• Otherwise the Young will suffer during their life times.• We in Rotary have the resources to work with the Young to

combat the challenges facing us.

Rotary is a Community


WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org

This presentation will be on WEB from this evening

>follow Academic Resources Link

• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room

And Finally

Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher 老子（ 604-531BC ）中国古代思想家、哲学家

“If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.” （直译）：“如果你不改变，你将止步于原地。”

keith tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) Н.К.Тови m.a., phd, ceng, mice, cenv

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