1. 2011-03

2. 2008 9 . , . . . . 1997~98 . 2008 4/4 2009 2/4 , . , .KDI . , 1997~98 (1: ), (2: ). (3: ), 3. (4: ). KDI SK . , , , , , , , , , . , , , , . , , , . , , . , . , .2011 10 4. 11 1 () 151 152 173 1997~98 194 251. 262. 323. 395 43 452 2 () 491 49 5. 2 511. 512. 563. 613 641. 652. 704 741. 762. 783. 834. 855 871. 882. 906 92 95 1: 98 2: 1023 () 1051 1052 1071. 1092. 1183. 121 6. 4. 1243 1261. 1262. 1283. 1344. 1414 144 148 1514 () 1531 1532 1553 1614 1635 1676 OECD 1707 174 176 1773 5 () 1811 181 7. 2 1843 1864 1901. 1902. 2055 2126 224 227 2296 () 2311 2312 2341. 2342. 2363 2381. 2382. 2503. 2554. 2584 2601. 2602. 2645 2671. 2672. 269 8. 2717 () 2731 2731. 2742. 2008 2762 1997 2008 2771. 2772. 2843. 2913 : 2931. 2932. 2994 302 3044 8 () 3091 3092 3101. 2000 3102. 3153 3241. 324 9. 2. 3273. 3284 336 339 : 3409 () 3431 3432 3441. 3442. 3473 3511. 3512. 3544 3601. 3642. 3703. 3765 378 38110 () 3831 3832 3851. 3862. 3873. 389 10. 4. 3903 3914 3951. 3962. 4003. 4034. 4045 4046 408 411ABSTRACT 413 11. < 1- 1> 27< 1- 2> 28< 1- 3> GDP 29< 1- 4> 33< 1- 5> GDP 35< 1- 6> 36< 1- 7> 37< 1- 8> 38< 1- 9> 40< 1-10> GDP 41< 1-11> GDP 42< 2- 1> 53< 2- 2> 62< 2- 3> 62< 2- 4> () 64< 2- 5> 66< 2- 6> () 71< 2- 7> 72< 2- 8> 78< 2- 9> ( ) 79< 2-10> : 81< 2-11> (2008 3/4 4/4) 83< 2-12> (2) 84< 2-13> (8) 84< 2-14> 87< 2-15> 91 12. < 2-1> 102< 3- 1> 114< 3- 2> Extensive Margin: 119< 3- 3> Intensive Margin: 120< 3- 4> 126< 3- 5> ( ) 130< 3- 6> 133< 3- 7> 136< 3- 8> 138< 3- 9> 140< 3-10> 141< 3-11> 142< 3-1> UN BEC code 151< 3-2> 152< 4- 1> 164< 4- 2> 165< 4- 3> 168< 4- 4> : OECD, 2007~09 173< 4-1> 177< 4-2> -GDP 178< 5- 1> 189< 5- 2> 194< 5- 3> 195< 5- 4> 200< 5- 5> 202< 5- 6> 203< 5- 7> , 222< 6- 1> (2009) 242< 6- 2> (2009) 243< 6- 3> (2009) 244 13. < 6- 4> (2009) 245< 6- 5> 249< 6- 6> , , 255< 6- 7> (2005~08) 256< 6- 8> (2008~09) 257< 6- 9> (2005~08) 257< 6-10> (2008~09) 257< 6-11> (2005~08) 258< 6-12> (2008~09) 258< 6-13> 259< 6-14> 264< 7- 1> 279< 7- 2> 282< 7- 3> 289< 7- 4> 291< 7- 5> IMF FSI 294< 7- 6> (OLS) 300< 7- 7> (OLS) 301< 8- 1> 326< 8- 2> : 1%p (1) 331< 8- 3> 333< 8-1> 340< 9- 1> 352< 9- 2> 353< 9- 3> 2008~09 356< 9- 4> ( ) 357< 9- 5> 2008 358< 9- 6> 2008 359< 9- 7> 2009 360< 9- 8> 10 362 14. < 9- 9> 10 362< 9-10> 10 363< 9-11> 365< 9-12> ( ) 367< 9-13> ( ) 371< 9-14> 372< 9-15> GDP 373< 9-16> 377< 10- 1> 390< 10- 2> 391 15. [ 1- 1] / 18[ 1- 2] 18[ 1- 3] IMF 2009 19[ 1- 4] GDP() 21[ 1- 5] / 21[ 1- 6] 22[ 1- 7] 22[ 1- 8] 23[ 1- 9] 24[ 1-10] 25[ 1-11] (2008 6 ) 27[ 1-12] (2008 6 ) 28[ 1-13] 2008~10 GDP ( ) 29[ 1-14] 31[ 1-15] 32[ 1-16] 2009~10 33[ 1-17] 2009~10 GDP 35[ 1-18] 2009~10 36[ 1-19] 2007 2009 37[ 1-20] 2008~09 38[ 1-21] 2008~10 40[ 1-22] 2009~10 GDP 41[ 1-23] 2010 42[ 2- 1] CDS 51[ 2- 2] 53[ 2- 3] () 54 16. [ 2- 4] 57[ 2- 5] 58[ 2- 6] 60[ 2- 7] (KOSPI, ) 66[ 2- 8] 68[ 2- 9] 69[ 3- 1] : 2008 4/4~2009 1/4111[ 3- 2] : 2001 4/4 112[ 3- 3] 2000 112[ 3- 4] 116[ 3- 5] 117[ 3- 6] 117[ 3- 7] 122[ 3- 8] 124[ 3- 9] 127[ 3-10] 128[ 3-11] 129[ 3-12] 131[ 3-13] : vs 132[ 3-14] 133[ 3-15] 2008~10 135[ 3-16] 137[ 3-17] () 139[ 4- 1] 154[ 4- 2] , 156[ 4- 3] 158[ 4- 4] : 159[ 4- 5] : 161[ 4- 6] 162[ 4- 7] : , CSI 166[ 4- 8] : , CSI 167 17. [ 4- 9] : vs. 168[ 4-10] OECD 171[ 4-11] OECD 171[ 5- 1] 190[ 5- 2] 191[ 5- 3] 192[ 5- 4] 194[ 5- 5] 195[ 5- 6] 198[ 5- 7] 200[ 5- 8] 206[ 5- 9] 207[ 5-10] 208[ 5-11] 209[ 5-12] 210[ 5-13] 211[ 5-14] 211[ 5-15] 213[ 5-16] 213[ 5-17] 214[ 5-18] 215[ 5-19] 215[ 5-20] 216[ 5-21] , 217[ 5-22] 218[ 5-23] 218[ 5-24] 219[ 5-25] 221[ 5-26] 221[ 5-27] 225[ 6- 1] GDP 235 18. [ 6- 2] GDP 235[ 6- 3] 237[ 6- 4] 238[ 6- 5] 239[ 6- 6] 239[ 6- 7] 240[ 6- 8] 240[ 6- 9] 241[ 6-10] 246[ 6-11] 246[ 6-12] (/) 247[ 6-13] (/) 247[ 6-14] (/) 247[ 6-15] (/) 248[ 6-16] 248[ 6-17] 249[ 6-18] (DSR) : vs. 250[ 6-19] (DIR) 251[ 6-20] (DSR) 251[ 6-21] (DCR) 252[ 6-22] (DSCR) 252[ 6-23] (Cumulative Distribution) 254[ 6-24] 259[ 6-25] , , GDP 261[ 6-26] 261[ 6-27] 262[ 6-28] GDP 263[ 6-29] 265[ 6-30] 266[ 7- 1] 278 19. [ 7- 2] 280[ 7- 3] 281[ 7- 4] 282[ 7- 5] 284[ 7- 6] 285[ 7- 7] GDP 286[ 7- 8] 287[ 7- 9] 288[ 7-10] 288[ 7-11] (claim holder) 291[ 7-12] / 292[ 7-13] FSI 295[ 7-14] 296[ 7-15] 297[ 7-16] 298[ 7-17] 298[ 8- 1] (GDP) (GDI) 313[ 8- 2] 314[ 8- 3] 315[ 8- 4] 317[ 8- 5] 318[ 8- 6] GDP M1 319[ 8- 7] GDP M1 320[ 8- 8] ( ) 322[ 8- 9] 323[ 8-10] 329[ 8-11] 331[ 8-12] 332[ 8-13] 334[ 8-14] 335[ 8-15] 336 20. [ 9- 1] 345[ 9- 2] (2007 ) 346[ 9- 3] (2007 ) 347[ 9- 4] (2007 ) 347[ 9- 5] 348[ 9- 6] 350[ 9- 7] GDP 368[ 9- 8] 369[ 9- 9] GDP 372[ 9-10] 375[ 10- 1] (+) (2008) 388[ 10- 2] R&D 389[ 10- 3] 399[ 10- 4] 401[ 10- 5] 402 21. 1 . , 1997~98 . , , . , , . , 2008~09 . , . , . . . , . 1997~98 , 1929 22. 2 . . . , , , . . 1997~98 , 2007 . , ( ) . , . 1997~98 , . 2008 . . 23. 3 , . , , , .2 10 . 1 1997~98 , . 2, 3 4 , . 5, 6 7 , . 8 9 , 10 . .1. 1 . 2008 9 (Lehman Brothers) , 1997~98 24. 4 . 2008~09 . . 1997~98 , . , , , .2. 2 . , . , 2000 , . . , , ., 25. 5 , , , . , . , . .3. 3 . , . . , , . ,2000 , . , EU, 26. 6 , .4. 4 . 1997~98 . GDP , , . . , , . OECD ., 23 , . . 27. 7 , . , , .5. 5 2008~09 . , 1997~98 2008~09 , 1990~2010 . , . 300400% , , , 100% . 1990 8~9% 2000 7.5% 2000 10% 10~11% , 600% 2000 2010 147% . . . , 100% 28. 8 150% , . , 10~11% , ., , , , .6. 6 , . . 2003 , . , . . , , . 29. 97. 7 . . 1997 2008 , 42 2008 . , 1997 , , 2008 , . , 2008 . ., , , , , . , , . . , . , , . , , . 30. 10 8. 8 . 2008 , 2008 4/4 , . . (macro-financial risk) . , .9. 9 .2008 . 2008 , 2009 , 2009 30.5 29.3 . 31. 11 . GDP 2009 1.1%p, 2010 0.3%p . 2009 .2010 GDP , GDP . , GDP . 2009 GDP 1.9%p , 1.1%p, 0.8%p . , . 2007 299.2 2010 392.8 3 100 , . , , .10. . , . 10 . , (SOC , , R&D ) , ( , , ) . 32. 12 , 1 1% , . , . , , , . 33. 34. 1) (KDI ) (SK )1 . 1960 , 12 , . GDP , 1997~98 , . , , . , , . , * . 35. 16 1 . ,2008~09 . , . , . . . 2 , . . 1997~98 , . ,1997~98 ( ) , 1929 . . , , 2008~09 . 2 2008 9 Lehman Brothers , 3 1997~98 . 4 2008~09 . 36. 1 172 2007 , 2003 . 2008 , 100 150 , . , 2008 3/4 5% . 2008 9 (Lehman Brothers) , . , 1,100/ 1,500/ , 9 2,400 12 2,000 . , 1,500 1~2 1,000 30% ( 1-1 ). . , 2008 3/4 20% , . 9 27.6% 10 7.6%, 11-19.5% , 10-2.6% 11 -22.3% , 2 25% ( 1-2 ). 37. 18 1 [ 1-1] / 9001,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6003 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 32008 2009 2010 20116008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,200(/) ()KOSPI( ) / ( ) : .[ 1-2] 010203040503 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 122008 2009 2010 2011-40-200204060 ( ) ( )() (, %): . , . . IMF, 2008 11 2.5% 2009 2009 1 -4.0% ( 1-3 ). , 2 (/) ()(10) (, %) KOSPI()/() 38. 1 19[ 1-3] IMF 2009 -6-4-202464 7 10 11 1 4 7 102008 2009(%): IMF, World Economic Outlook, . 6.5%p , . 2009 3 . 2009 2/4 2010 1/4 4 8% , 2009 0.2% . 2009 1/4 2/4 .3 1997~98 1)2008~09 1997~98 . 1) Cho(2010) .(%) 39. 20 1 10 , . , 1997~98 . , , .2) 2/3 1/2 . GDP ,1998 1/4 7% ,2008 4/4 5% GDP (1-4 ). GDP , 6 4 GDP . , / 70% 30% , ( 1-5 ). . , , ( 1-6 ). , 1997~98 , .2) (, ) (: Edwards and Montiel[1989], Frankel and Rose[1996] ) (: Eichengreen,Rose and Wyplosz[1996], Sachs, Tornell and Velasco[1996] ) . 2008 . 40. 1 21[ 1-4] GDP(): GDP t 1997 4/4 2008 3/4 GDP .[ 1-5] / / : t 1997 112008 8 . , . , 20% 9095100105110t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 t+6 t+7 t+81997.IV=1002008.III=100t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 t+6 t+7 t+81101051009590708090100110120130140150t-12 t-8 t-4 t t+4 t+8 t+12 t+16 t+20 t+24199711=10020088=10050100150200250t-12 t-8 t-4 t t+4 t+8 t+12 t+16 t+20 t+24199711=10020088=10025020015010050150140130120110100908070t-12 t-8 t-4 t t+4 t+8 t+12 t+16 t+20 t+24 t-12 t-8 t-4 t t+4 t+8 t+12 t+16 t+20 t+24 41. 22 1 [ 1-6] : t 1997 4/4 2008 3/4 .[ 1-7] : t 1997 4/4 2008 3/4 . , ( 1-7 ). 8090100110120130140t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 t+6 t+7 t+81997.IV=1002008.III=1008090100110120130140t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 t+6 t+7 t+81997.IV=1002008.III=1001401301201101009080t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 t+6 t+7 t+81401301201101009080t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 t+6 t+7 t+860708090100110120130t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 t+6 t+7 t+81997.IV=1002008.III=10060708090100110120130t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 t+6 t+7 t+81997.IV=1002008.III=1001301201101009080706013012011010090807060t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 t+6 t+7 t+8 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 t+6 t+7 t+8 42. 1 23024681012141691 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10Q10.00.10.20.30.40.50.6(%)() ()(%)[ 1-8] : ; . , . , . . , , ( 1-8 ). , , (banking crisis) .3)3) Caprio and Klingebiel(1996) financial distress , Calomiris andGorton(1991) financial panic. , Demirg-Kunt and Detragiache(1998) systemic crisis (i) 10% , (ii) GDP 2% , (iii) (iv) . 2008~09 ()() 43. 24 [ 1-9] : t 1997 11 2008 8 . . , , ( 1-9 ). . , , ( 1-10 ). 1997~98 . , .0246810t-12 t-8 t-4 t t+4 t+8 t+12 t+16 t+20 t+24051015202530(%)t=1997 11t=2008 8(%)t=1997 11t=2008 81086420302520151050t-12 t-8 t-4 t t+4 t+8 t+12 t+16 t+20 t+24 44. 1 25[ 1-10] ( 1 ) : t 1997 11 2008 8 ., , . , . , , .4 3 1997~98 . ? -8-6-4-202468t-12 t-8 t-4 t t+4 t+8 t+12 t+16 t+20 t+24(,%)t=199711t=200880246810t-12 t-8 t-4 t t+4 t+8 t+12 t+16 t+20 t+24(%)t=199711t=20088108642086420-2-4-6-8t-12 t-8 t-4 t t+4 t+8 t+12 t+16 t+20 t+24 t-12 t-8 t-4 t t+4 t+8 t+12 t+16 t+20 t+24(%) (, %)t=1997 11t=2008 8t=1997 11t=2008 8 45. 26 .1. . , . < 1-1>~< 1-3> [ 1-11]~[ 1-13] 2007~10 . ( 1-1 1-11) , .2008 6 , 30~40% . 2010 , ( ) , ( ) . , ., ( 1-2 1-12) , 2009 3 , . ( ) , . 2009 , . 46. -80-60-40-2002040602008 2009 2010(%)-80-60-40-2002040602008 2009 2010(%)1 27< 1-1> (2008 6 =100)2008 2009 20106 9 12 3 6 12 12 100 91 71 62 72 87 98 100 84 66 60 74 78 76 100 91 73 62 72 88 83 100 87 79 70 76 96 105NIEs 100 86 67 72 83 100 122 100 76 61 69 85 109 119 100 82 65 61 83 99 104 100 80 60 58 79 98 108BRICs 100 76 58 63 79 105 107 100 59 35 44 55 78 96 100 96 72 72 108 130 152 100 84 67 87 108 120 103 100 78 59 56 78 96 134 100 86 72 72 91 108 131: .[ 1-11] (2008 6 )(%)(%)2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 6040200-20-40-60-806040200-20-40-60-80 47. 28 -30-150153045602008 2009 2010(%)-30-150153045602008 2009 2010(%)< 1-2> (2008 6 =100)2008 2009 20106 9 12 3 6 12 12 100 100 85 93 91 88 76 100 112 113 119 112 110 118 100 112 136 138 121 123 127NIEs 100 115 120 132 122 111 108 100 106 108 112 108 105 96 100 100 99 99 99 99 100 100 105 106 112 107 103 94BRICs 100 122 145 131 121 108 105 100 108 126 145 133 129 130 100 109 113 118 111 108 104 100 100 100 100 100 100 96 100 101 104 106 102 99 90 100 106 106 112 108 105 94: .[ 1-12] (2008 6 )(%)2008 2009 2010 604530150-15-30604530150-15-302008 2009 2010 (%) 48. 1 292008 2009 20106 9 12 3 6 12 12 17.8 17.8 18.4 18.1 18.1 18.3 19.0 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 2.2NIEs 25.4 23.6 19.8 20.3 22.8 26.6 28.7 67.7 65.9 67.7 69.7 73.8 80.9 88.7 70.0 71.4 81.1 82.8 92.0 113.7 119.4 79.3 75.8 78.2 74.7 77.8 84.3 101.4BRICs1)9.7 10.0 10.0 9.8 10.1 11.6 14.0 - - - - - 28.7 30.3 20.3 19.0 16.6 16.4 17.2 18.4 19.3 30.8 32.4 33.1 33.2 36.3 40.8 48.4 32.3 31.3 34.0 35.6 37.0 41.9 52.0 52.6 45.8 38.1 36.5 38.0 39.0 43.0< 1-3> GDP (: %): 1) IMF 2010 GDP .2) .[ 1-13] 2008~10 GDP ( )0.40.81.21.62.02.43 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 122008 2009 2010(%)10203040503 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 122008 2009 2010(%) 49. 30 . . < 1-3> [ 1-13] GDP . , ( ) , . , , . , , GDP , ., . , GDP 5%p < 1-3> . , . 2009 , . , . , [ 1-14] 2008 2009 , , . 50. 1 31[ 1-14] : IMF, Financial Soundness Indicators(http://fsi.imf.org/). , . , ( 1-15 )., , , , . , , .012345678910ItalyRomaniaGreeceBulgariaSloveniaMaltaSlovakRepublicEstoniaUSTurkeyCzechRepublicCyprusBrazilSpainFranceMalaysiaUKPhilippinesIndonesiaDenmarkGermanyNetherlandsChilePortugalAusrtiaAustraliaSingaporeChinaNorwayCanadaKoreaSwitzerland2008 2009(%) 2008 2009(%)109876543210 51. 32 -40-30-20-1001020304050JPNDEUCHEKORFINNLDUSANORITAAUSSWEIRLCANBELDNKFRAGBRESPNZL2000-072007-09(%)2000~072007~09(%) 50403020100-10-20-30-40[ 1-15] : .: OECD(2010).2. . < 1-4>~< 1-8> [ 1-16]~[ 1-20] 2007~10 . ( 1-4 1-16) , 20084/4 , 2009 2/4 2009 , 2010 . 3 , 2008 4/4 , . 52. 1 33-40-30-20-10010203040502009 2010-40-30-20-10010203040502009 2010(%)< 1-4> (: %)2007 2008 2009 2010 12.0 12.5 -18.1 20.5 6.7 10.2 10.1 -27.0 33.8 6.8 18.0 9.5 -22.3 10.6 3.9 -1.6 4.5 -23.0 15.2 -1.2NIEs 15.8 11.5 -17.6 29.9 9.9 10.1 3.4 -20.2 34.9 7.1 8.9 5.6 -11.9 22.8 6.3 10.1 12.9 -20.2 30.4 8.3BRICs 16.6 23.2 -22.7 32.0 12.3 16.8 33.1 -35.7 31.9 11.5 20.3 21.0 -9.8 26.6 14.5 25.8 17.6 -16.1 31.4 14.7 18.1 15.9 -14.0 28.4 12.1 9.5 13.3 -21.1 26.3 7.0[ 1-16] 2009~10 (%)(%) 2009 20102009 201050403020100-10-20-30-4050403020100-10-20-30-40 53. 34 ( 1-5 1-17). , 2009 , . .( 1-6 1-18) . 2008 4/4 , 2009 , . 2007~10 , . , . , . ( 1-7 1-19) . , , . . , ., ( 1-8 1-20) , . , 2009 54. 1 352007 2008 2009 2010 -5.1 -4.7 -2.7 -3.2 -3.9 4.8 3.2 2.8 3.6 3.6 0.2 -0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -2.6 -1.6 -1.7 -2.5 -2.1NIEs 2.1 0.3 3.9 2.8 2.3 9.0 6.9 11.4 9.4 9.2 12.3 13.7 8.6 6.6 10.3 27.3 14.7 19.1 22.2 20.8BRICs 0.1 -1.7 -1.5 -2.3 -1.4 6.0 6.2 4.0 4.8 5.3 -1.3 -2.2 -3.0 -3.7 -2.6 10.6 9.4 6.0 5.2 7.8 6.3 0.8 8.3 4.6 5.0 16.0 17.5 16.5 12.4 15.6-505101520252009 2010(%of GDP)-505101520252009 2010(%of GDP)< 1-5> GDP (: % of GDP): 2010 .[ 1-17] 2009~10 GDP (% of GDP) 2009 20102520151050-5(% of GDP)2520151050-52009 2010 55. -10-50510152009 2010(%)-10-50510152009 2010(%)36 < 1-6> (: %)2007 2008 2009 2010 1.9 0.0 -2.6 2.9 0.5 2.3 -1.2 -6.3 4.0 -0.3 2.8 0.3 -4.1 1.7 0.2 2.7 -0.1 -4.9 1.3 -0.3NIEs 5.1 2.3 0.3 6.2 3.5 6.0 0.7 -1.9 10.8 3.9 6.4 2.3 -2.7 6.8 3.2 8.8 1.5 -0.8 14.5 6.0BRICs 6.1 5.2 -0.6 7.5 4.5 8.5 5.2 -7.8 3.6 2.4 9.6 5.1 9.1 8.5 8.1 14.2 9.6 9.2 10.3 10.8 5.0 2.5 -2.3 7.8 3.3 6.3 5.0 -1.7 7.2 4.2: , 2010 .: Global Insight.[ 1-18] 2009~10 (%) 2009 2010151050-5-10(%)151050-5-102009 2010 56. 1 37-2-1012345(%p)-2-1012345(%p)< 1-7> (: %)2007 2008 2009 2010 4.6 5.8 9.3 9.6 7.3 3.8 4.0 5.1 5.1 4.5 7.8 7.8 9.8 10.4 9.0 5.3 5.7 7.7 7.9 6.7NIEs 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.9 4.1 5.8 5.2 4.8 4.1 3.4 5.2 4.4 4.3 2.1 2.2 3.0 2.2 2.4BRICs 9.3 7.9 8.1 6.8 8.0 6.1 7.8 8.4 7.5 7.5 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.9 10.1 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.3 3.2 3.3 3.7 3.3 3.4[ 1-19] 2007 2009 (%p) 543210-1-2(%p)543210-1-2 57. 38 -3036912152008 2009(%)-3036912152008 2009(%)< 1-8> (: %)2007 2008 2009 2010 2.9 3.8 -0.3 1.6 2.0 0.1 1.4 -1.3 -0.7 -0.2 2.1 3.2 0.2 1.5 1.8 2.3 3.6 2.2 3.3 2.8NIEs 2.5 4.7 2.8 2.9 3.2 1.8 3.5 -0.9 1.0 1.4 2.0 4.3 0.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 6.6 0.6 2.8 3.0BRICs 3.6 5.7 4.9 5.0 4.8 9.1 14.1 11.8 6.8 10.5 6.4 8.4 10.9 12.0 9.4 4.8 5.9 -0.7 3.3 3.3 2.2 5.5 -0.8 3.3 2.5 2.0 5.4 0.6 1.6 2.4[ 1-20] 2008~09 (%) 2008 200915129630-3(%)2008 2009 15129630-3 58. 1 39 , , . , 2008 , .3. . (coordination) (synchronization) , .( 1-9 1-21) , . ( ) , . 2010 . , 2010 , 2010 . ( 1-10 1-22) . . 2010 , . GDP ( 1-11 1-23) 59. 40 < 1-9> (: %)2008 2009 20106 9 12 3 6 12 12 2.00 2.00 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.50 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 4.00 4.25 2.50 1.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 5.00 5.00 2.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50NIEs 5.00 5.25 3.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.50 3.63 3.50 2.00 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.63 3.50 3.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.31 1.16 0.13 0.13 0.03 0.50 0.13BRICs 12.25 13.75 13.75 11.25 9.25 8.75 10.75 10.75 11.00 13.00 13.00 11.50 8.75 7.75 8.50 9.00 6.50 5.00 4.75 4.75 6.25 7.47 7.20 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.81 3.25 3.75 2.75 1.50 1.25 1.25 2.00 3.50 3.50 3.25 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.75: .[ 1-21] 2008~10 0123453 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 122008 2009 2010(%)02468103 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 122008 2009 2010(%) 60. 1 41< 1-10> GDP (: % of GDP)2007 2008 2009 2010 -1.3 -4.7 -10.4 -8.7 -6.3 -4.9 -5.9 -10.4 -9.8 -7.8 -0.7 -2.0 -6.3 -6.0 -3.7 -2.4 -4.7 -10.9 -10.1 -7.0NIEs 3.5 1.2 -1.7 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 -1.3 -1.2 -0.4 7.7 0.1 1.6 4.3 3.4 2.4 2.4 -3.2 -1.2 0.1BRICs -2.8 -2.1 -3.3 -2.6 -2.7 6.0 4.9 -6.3 -4.2 0.1 -3.3 -6.0 -6.4 -5.1 -5.2 0.6 -0.4 -2.2 -1.6 -0.9 -2.0 -1.1 -4.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.2 -4.8 -7.0 -5.6 -5.2: 2010 .: Global Insight; ().[ 1-22] 2009~10 GDP -12-9-6-30362009 2010(% of GDP)-12-9-6-30362009 2010(%of GDP)(% of GDP) (% of GDP) 2009 2010630-3-6-9-12630-3-6-9-122009 2010 61. 050100150200250(%of GDP)050100150200250(%of GDP)42 < 1-11> GDP (: % of GDP)2007 2008 2009 2010 20131) 62.2 71.2 84.6 91.6 105.6 187.7 195.0 216.3 220.3 238.0 66.2 69.8 79.3 85.0 88.4 43.9 52.0 68.3 77.2 87.4NIEs 30.7 30.1 33.8 33.5 33.8 33.3 36.0 39.9 39.7 35.1 1.6 1.3 3.3 4.8 3.7 85.9 97.2 105.0 97.2 88.5BRICs 65.2 70.7 67.9 66.1 63.8 8.5 7.9 11.0 9.9 9.5 73.0 73.0 71.1 69.2 65.3 19.6 17.0 17.7 17.7 15.0 38.3 37.3 45.2 44.1 43.9 42.7 42.8 55.4 54.2 56.5: 1) 2013 .2) (+) .: IMF; ().[ 1-23] 2010 (% of GDP) (% of GDP) 250200150100500 250200150100500 62. 1 43 . GDP 100% , .5 . 2008 9 (Lehman Brothers) 3~6 , . . . 1997~98 , . , , , . . , , . 63. 44 . 1997~98 , 2007 . , ( ) . , . 1997~98 , . . 64. 1 45 Blanchard, Olivier, Giovanni DellAriccia, and Paolo Mauro, RethinkingMacroeconomic Policy, Paper presented at the KDI/IMF Conference onReconstructing the World Economy, co-organized by the KoreaDevelopment Institute(KDI) and the International Monetary Fund(IMF), Seoul,Korea, February 2010.Calomiris, Charles W. and Gary Gorton, The Origins of Banking Panics: Models,Facts, and Bank Regulation, in R.Glenn Hubbard (ed), Chapter 4 inFinancial Markets and Financial Crises, University of Chicago Press, 1991,pp.109~174.Caprio, Gerard, Jr. and Klingebiel, Daniela, Bank Insolvencies: Cross-CountryExperience, Policy Research Working Paper, No. 1620, World Bank, 1996.Cho, Dongchul, Responses of the Korean Economy to the Global Crisis: AnotherCrisis? Paper presented at the EWC/KDI Conference on Global EconomicCrisis: Impacts, Transmission, and Recovery, co-edited by Maurice Obstfeld,Dongchul Cho, and Andrew Mason, Honolulu, Hawaii, August 2010.Cottarelli, Carlo and Jos Vials, A Strategy for Renormalizing Fiscal and MonetaryPolicies in Advanced Economies, Paper presented at the KDI/IMFConference on Reconstructing the World Economy, co-organized by theKorea Development Institute(KDI) and the International Monetary Fund(IMF),Seoul, Korea, February 2010.Demirg-Kunt, Asli and Enrica Detragiache, The Determinants of Banking Crisesin Developing and Developed Countries, IMF Staff Papers, 1998.Edwards, Sebastian and Peter Montiel, Devaluation Crises and the MacroeconomicConsequences of Postponed Adjustment, International Monetary Fund StaffPapers, Vol. 366, No. 4, 1989, pp.875~903.Eichengreen, Barry, Andrew Rose, and Charles Wyplosz, Contagious CurrencyCrises: First Tests, The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 98, No.4,Financial Liberalization and Macroeconomic Stability, 1996, pp.463~484.Frankel, Jeffrey and Andrew Rose, Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets:Empirical Indicators, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 41, Issues 3-4, 65. 46 1996, pp.351~366.Hong, Kiseok, Fiscal Policy Issues in Korea after the Current Crisis, ADBIWorking Paper Series, No. 225, Asia Development Bank Institute, Tokyo,July 2010.Huh, Seok-Kyun, On the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Korea during 1979~2000 (inKorean), Korea Development Review, Vol. 29, No. 2, Korea DevelopmentInstitute, Seoul, Korea, December 2007, pp.1~40.OECD, 2010 Economic ReviewKorea, Economic and Development ReviewCommittee, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, May2010.Sachs, Tornell and Velasco, Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessonsfrom 1995, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1996, No. 1, 1995,pp.147~215Spilimbergo, Antonio, Steve Symansky, Olivier Blanchard, and Carlo Cottarelli,Fiscal Policy for the Crisis, IMF Staff Position Note, SPN/08/01,International Monetary Fund, December 2008. 66. 67. () ()1 . 2008 9 . , . 1997 10 .1997 2008 , . 1997 2008 . . 1997 , . 68. 50 2 , , . , 10 . , . . , . Kohn(2008) .2 , 3 2000 . 4 , 5 . 6 . 69. 2 512 1. 2008 9 CDS(credit default swap) . [2-1] 2008 10 29 1,478.5 57.6% , CDS 10 27 699bp .1) CDS [ 2-1] CDS : ; Bloomberg.1) (2009) . , 2008 , .1,7001,6001,5001,4001,3001,2001,1001,0009008008007006005004003002001000/ () CDS() 70. 52 2 . .2) . [ 2-2] 2007 2008 3/4 142.7 , 39.8 . 2008 4/4 343.8 , GDP 17.9% . , GDP 21.3%408.8 . . 2009 . < 2-1> . 2008 4/4 (other investment) . 335.0 408.8 . (trade credit), (), , , ., 2008 3/4 . 2) (error and omissions) . . , . 71. 2 53[ 2-2] (: ): .< 2-1> (: )2008 20091/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 1/4 2/4(A) 0.9 6.0 -39.8 65.0 45.4 115.6(B) -26.6 -37.8 -102.9 -408.8 46.5 66.1 -1.1 -2.3 -2.2 6.6 3.8 0.3 -61.1 -44.7 -39.9 -23.8 -27.8 -20.3 -44.0 83.6 -94.2 30.6 27.8 159.3 -12.5 -12.4 -35.5 -87.3 -26.6 6.0 92.1 -62.0 68.9 -335.0 69.2 -79.1(A+B) -25.7 -31.8 -142.7 -343.8 91.9 181.6(C) 38.5 57.2 128.8 340.0 -90.2 -195.4 (D) -12.8 -25.4 13.9 3.9 -1.8 13.8(C+D) 25.7 31.8 142.7 343.8 -91.9 -181.6: .2001000-100-200-300-400-500 72. 54 2 [ 2-3] () (: ): .68.9 . 94.2 . , 2008 3/4 .< 2-1> , . [2-3] (), (), . , . () , () .[ 2-3] . , 2008 4/4 , , , . 73. 2 55 42.8 106.0 , 469.1 . , .3), 2008 4/4 , , , . 2007 8 2007 289.7, 2008 193.6 , 2008 3/4 99.8 . , , 2008 4/4 42.8 . 2007 1/4 2008 2/4 137.7 , 2008 3/4 51.5 . 2008 3/4 . 2007 1/4 2008 3/4 92.5 . , 2008 4/4 ., 2009 . 2009 248.6 234.4 3) 2008 4/4 6.3 475.3 . 483.7 . 74. 56 2 , 2009 2/4 2009 78.5 .2. 1997~98 2008 . , 2 . . , . , 2009 2 Economist HSBC (credit crunch) . Economist GDP , , , 17 , . 2009 , . 2006 , . 2005 1,614 2008 3/4 3,651 2 , GDP 148.2% . GDP 2009 1/4 183.2% . 1997~98 .4) 1 . 75. 2 57[ 2-4] (: %): . 2005 659 2008 3/4 1,896 . 2008 3/4 51.9% , 1996 4/4 50.3% . , , . 2008 3/4 79.1% , . 2008 1,500 2009 1 430 1,930 2008 4/4 2,012 .4) 1998 1/4 GDP 215.3% . 76. 58 2 [ 2-5] . , FX . . .[ 2-5] . [ 2-5] , . t , FX (t+s) . . . . FX FX FX 77. 2 59 . FX() () , . , . . , . 2006 , [ 2-5] (interconnectedness) . . ., . 2005 4/4834 2008 3/4 2,195 . 2005 4/4 530 2008 3/4 850 . . [ 2-6]1994 . [ 2-6] , 2006 . 78. 60 2 [ 2-6] (: )(: ): . , 2000 2000 90% 2008 3/4 59.6% . , 2006 2005 4/41,0005000-500-1,000-1,5004002000-200-400-600-800-1,000-1,200 79. 2 61 41.8% 2008 3/4 12.6% . . . . 2008 3/4 53.6% 96.4% , . (OECD[2010]).3. . . 2003~05 300 2006 . 2006 617, 2007 975 , 2008 718 . . (2010) 2006 353, 2007 533 , 50% . , [ 2-5] . . 80. 62 2 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009(A) 239.0 318.0 312.7 617.0 975.0 717.9 183.3(B) 44.7 125.0 168.2 352.5 532.6 416.7 160.7B/A(%) 18.7 39.3 53.8 57.1 54.6 58.0 87.62005 2006 2007 2008 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 1/4 2/4 111 241 144 111 79 168 1 -12 15 131 46 56 86 83 -9 47< 2-2> (: ): (2010).< 2-3> (: ): (2008). . . , . . 2005 15 2006 131, 2007 272 . . 81. 2 63. 2006 . , . FX . (arbitrage opportunity). (covered interest parity condition) .5) , 2007 ([2008]). . 2007 1/4 , 2/4 3/4 4/4 . , 3 2006 0.20%, 2007 1/4 0.30% . 2007 3 20073/4 1.41%, 4/4 2.27% . 2007 .5) CIP , , . 82. 64 2 2005 2006 2007 2008 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 1/4 2/4 29.8 177.6 167.9 -12.2 -24.1 6.8 35.7 -51.7 1.5 13.3 18.2 21.3 126.8 198.7 71.0 86.0 31.3 190.9 186.1 9.1 102.7 205.5 106.7 34.33 0.07 0.20 0.30 0.55 1.41 2.27 2.04 1.841 0.26 0.28 0.31 0.44 1.10 1.78 2.17 1.97< 2-4> () (: , %): (2008).. 2000 . , . (interestrate swaps) . . , FX .3 . 83. 2 65 . 1990 (globalization) . , . , . (risksharing) , . , . .1. 1992 . , 1998 5 . .6) 1999 18.5%KOSPI 2004 3, 47.0% .6) 2000 . 2007 12 (International Central SecuritiesDepository) . 2009 1 . 2009 5.57% . 84. 66 2 1 1992. 1. 3 10% 3%1 1994. 12. 1 12% 3%2 1995. 7. 1 15% 3%3 1996. 4. 1 18% 4%4 1996. 10. 1 20% 5%5 1997. 5. 2 23% 6%6 1997. 11. 3 26% 7%7 1997. 12. 11 50% 50%8 1997. 12. 30 55% 50%9() 1998. 5. 25 < 2-5> : [ 2-7] (KOSPI, )(: %): . 2007 12 34.2%, 2009 4 27.9% . 85. 2 67 2008 4/4 , , . . [ 2-8] , , . KOSPI , 225 , FTSE100 . [ 2-8] 1996 1 36 .7) 2004 , 2007 . [ 2-7] . , . , 2000 .IMF(2008) 2000 , . (financial integration) 7) . , , Forbes and Rigobon . 86. 68 2 [ 2-8] . . , / . .[ 2-9] KOSPI . [ 2-8] 1996 1 36 . . 2000 0 , . [ 2-9] 2008 1 2010 12 87. 2 69[ 2-9] -0.551 ., . Lee and Lee(2009) KOSPI , . 1992 1 1997 9 , 1997 10 2009 6 . ., Lee and Lee(2009) (Granger causalityin mean) Hong, Liu, and Wang(2009) (Grangercausality in risk) . 5% 5% , (risk spillover) . Lee and Lee , 88. 70 2 . .2. . , .< 2-6> BIS .8) 1984~89 1990~97 10.7% 10.1% , 2000~07 17.5% , 2000 . , 1980 , 1990 . , 1990 , 2000 . 1980 1.4% , 1990~97 16.2% 10.1% . 2000~07 24.7% . , 8) BIS Consolidated Foreign Claims of BIS Reporting Banks on Individual Countriesby Nationality of Reporting Banks 1983 . 89. 2 711984~89 1990~97 1998 2000~07 2008 2009~10 10.7 10.1 -4.1 17.5 -11.9 2.1 17.7 11.2 11.2 18.0 -12.9 0.0 5.4 10.0 -2.5 18.9 -6.1 9.5 19.5 10.9 -10.6 15.0 -12.9 8.2 1.4 16.2 -18.2 24.7 -21.9 11.6< 2-6> ()(: %): BIS. , . . , 1998 2008 . 1998 , 2008 . 2008 . , ., 2000 , . ,2008 ., < 2-7> 90. 72 2 1997 2008 1996 1997 1998 2006 2007 20088.2(18.1)8.2(19.9)-11.5(21.6)23.0(26.0)9.4(22.3)-20.0(22.8)43.9(7.9)25.8(10.1)-20.6(9.8)11.6(29.1)21.0(27.6)-18.8(28.7)12.8(32.9)-17.2(27.6)-14.1(29.0)23.0(7.7)48.7(9.0)5.3(12.1)25.2(12.0)26.6(15.4)-33.4(12.5)61.1(9.0)72.3(12.2)-22.2(12.1)36.3(12.7)-1.3(12.8)-13.0(13.6)139.7(8.0)22.1(7.6)-14.9(8.3)64.9(2.9)-8.1(2.7)39.9(4.6)24.6(4.9)73.4(6.6)-32.5(5.7)46.2(2.0)97.7(4.1)-43.7(2.8)60.9(9.6)-3.9(7.2)-34.0(6.1)68.5(11.4)-36.0(7.5)-32.9(6.1)29.8(5.7)67.9(7.5)-57.8(4.1)< 2-7> (: %): ( ) .: BIS. . , 1997 2008 . 1996 , 32.9% . 18.1% , , 10% . 91. 2 73 1997 1998 17.2% 14.1% 1998 29.0% . , 1998 1996 1998 .2000 10% . . 1998 9.8% 2006 29.1% , , . 1998 , 1998 .9)2 3 . 2000 . . , , . . , , 9) 1997 18.3% 2007 8.0% . , 1997 14.2% 2007 5.9% . , . 92. 74 2 . .4 2 3 . , , . BIS (ConsolidatedForeign Claims of BIS Reporting Banks on Individual Countries byNationality of Reporting Banks) .BIS - . . BIS 1983 , 2000 . 18 30 , Herrmann and Mihaljek(2010) .10)10) 18 (Austria, Australia, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France,Germany, Greece, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland,United Kingdom, United States) 10 (China, Hong Kong, Singapore, India,Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam), 11 (Bulgaria,Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, SlovakRepublic, Slovenia), 9(Turkey, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia,Mexico, Peru, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia). 93. 2 75BIS IMF Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey . , .11) BIS . , Papaioannou(2009),Herrmann and Mihaljek(2010) . BIS , . , .12) , .13)11) IMF . . . BIS .12) Kim, Lee, and Shin(2005), Lee(2008), (2010) . GDP . , . .13) IMF(2008), Mercado and Park(2011) . 94. 76 2 1. , . ( ) . . , . GDP . , 2 / . Papaioannou(2009), Herrmann and Mihaljek(2010) . . (1) . , , , . 95. 2 77 . , 1 . IFS(International Financial Statistics) , World Bank QEDS(Quarterly ExternalDebt Statistics) , Chinn-Ito index .14) , Chinn-Ito index . (1) pooled OLS . (1) . . , . . 2008 3/4 4/4 , GDP , . , , . 2006 . , (Chinn-Ito index) , 14) Chinn-Ito index IMF Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and ExchangeRestrictions , . Kaminsky and Schmukler(2003) 28 , OECD Code of Liberalization of Capital Movements OECD . 96. 78 2 2000~10 2008 3/4, 4/4 GDP 1.62 4.14 4.56 -0.75 1.70 -0.09 6.62 13.24 10.50 4.64 17.38 12.44 4.17 6.78 4.91 4.08 7.21 6.08 2.00 5.59 3.08 0.03 5.01 2.18 58.36 39.45 46.24 58.11 41.09 53.83 2.34 1.21 0.18 2.34 1.21 0.18< 2-8> (: %) . .15)2. < 2-9> . < 2-9> , 1 , 2 . , (1)(2) () GDP () () . 15) (Chinn-Ito index) -1.14, 2.5, -1.13, 1.17, 0.18, 1.17, 0.12, 2.5, -0.09. 97. 2 79 (1) (2) (3) (4)GDP i0.201(1.05)0.311(1.1)-0.050(-0.22)-0.012(-0.05)GDP j0.320(3.03)0.375(3.57)0.292(2.21)0.311(2.36) i0.386(2.44)0.281(1.83)0.572(3.24)0.509(2.96) j0.319(3.38)0.313(3.32)0.270(2.61)0.289(2.80)1 i-0.831(-2.73)-0.732(-2.18)1 j-0.270(-1.67)-0.170(-0.95)2 i0.122(1.56)0.155(1.84)2 j0.099(1.36)0.122(1.53) i-0.032(-1.80)-0.019(-1.11)-0.046(-2.27)-0.031(-1.57) j-0.025(-1.60)-0.020(-1.29)-0.031(-1.61)-0.023(-1.23) i0.002(0.26)0.005(0.62)0.002(0.26)0.005(0.55) j0.010(2.69)0.011(2.90)0.011(2.62)0.011(2.71)(1 GDP) i0.011(1.03)0.008(0.71)(1 GDP) j0.002(0.41)0.001(0.16) 12,877 12,877 11,495 11,495< 2-9> ( ): 1) OLS.2) ( ) t.3) . 98. 80 2 , . . . . , . ,16) < 2-9> . (3) (4) (1) (2) 1GDP , 1GDP . (2008 3/4, 4/4) , (1) (2) . 0 , . < 2-10> (5) (6) , -16% . . . < 2-10> (7) (8) (1) (2)16) Binici, Hutchison, and Schindler(2009) , . 99. 2 81 2008 3/4, 4/4(5) (6) (7) (8)GDP i-0.097(-0.51)-0.049(-0.25)0.647(0.90)0.662(0.82)GDP j0.241(2.29)0.275(2.61)0.841(2.43)0.888(2.45) i0.186(1.18)0.109(0.71)0.644(1.08)0.009(0.02) j0.316(3.35)0.306(3.26)-0.382(-1.04)-0.377(-1.04)1 i-0.611(-2.01)-2.37(-2.48)1 j-0.220(-1.37)0.542(1.24)2 i0.029(0.37)-0.100(-0.33)2 j0.055(0.75)0.202(0.79) i-0.032(-1.82)-0.024(-1.41)-0.113(-1.76)-0.081(-1.28) j-0.021(-1.36)-0.018(-1.15)-0.025(-0.48)-0.023(-0.42) i0.002(0.27)0.004(0.50)-0.069(-2.67)-0.064(-2.45) j0.009(2.50)0.010(2.63)0.026(2.17)0.023(2.00) (2008 3/4, 4/4)-0.157(-10.68)-0.156(-10.44) 12,877 12,877 1,081 1,081< 2-10> : : 1) OLS.2) ( ) t.3) . 100. 82 2 . (7) (8) . GDP , . (1) . . . (7) (8) 2008 , . 2000 . 2.02 < 2-8> , 2008 . .17) , . . 17) , . 101. 2 832008 3/4, 4/4 i, j -10.88 -11.17 -17.61 (2) -6.57 -7.49 -11.85 (8) 0 -0.69 -1.25 .3. . . , < 2-10> (2) (8) 2008 3/4, 4/4 < 2-11> .18) < 2-11> < 2-9> (2) -11.85% , < 2-10> (8) -1.25% .< 2-12> < 2-13> (2) (8) . , < 2-11> (2008 3/4 4/4)18) (1) (4) 2008 3/4, 4/4 -5~-6% , (5) (8) -12~-16% . 102. 84 2 2008 3/4, 4/4 GDP i 0.68 0.68 0.65GDP j 2.40 3.76 3.32 i 0.00 0.00 0.00 j -0.49 -0.78 -1.222 i -0.41 -0.42 -0.412 j 0.99 1.12 0.06 i -4.75 -4.77 -4.85 j -1.18 -1.04 -1.25 i -15.05 -15.13 -15.39 j 4.61 3.78 0.42 2.31 2.31 2.31 (8) -10.88 -10.48 -16.362008 3/4, 4/4 GDP i 0.32 0.32 0.30GDP j 1.02 1.59 1.40 i 0.08 0.07 0.07 j 0.40 0.64 1.012 i 0.50 0.51 0.492 j 0.49 0.55 0.03 i -1.13 -1.14 -1.15 j -1.06 -0.93 -1.12 i 1.14 1.14 1.16 j 2.09 1.71 0.19 -8.15 -8.15 -8.15 (2) -4.30 -3.68 -5.76< 2-12> (2) : 2008 2008 3/4, 4/4 .< 2-13> (8) : 2008 2008 3/4, 4/4 . 103. 2 85 . (8) ( 6.5%p) 1%p, 0.2%p, 3.4%p, . . . < 2-12> < 2-13> ., (2) (8) 2 , 2 . , . < 2-9> , 2006 , .4. . , 104. 86 2 . .< 2-14> 5 . 1991 2010 , 2000 . , 5 . < 2-14> . . , 1 GDP , . 1 GDP .19)19) . Kaminsky and Schmukler(2003) (5 ) , IMF(2008) . i j (j) . , . 105. 2 87(1) (2) i, j 0.285(4.99)0.254(4.62) i-0.100(-8.73)0.003(0.21) j0.017(3.35)0.033(5.48)(1 GDP) i -0.197(-14.09)(1 GDP) j -0.029(-4.52) 2,608 2,608< 2-14> : ( ) t.5 4 . . . 4 , . , . 106. 88 2 , (contagion effect) . , . . 3 , . (2009) , (2009) .1. , . . . , (Kaminsky and Reinhart[2000], Van Rijckeghem andWeder[2001] ) (Gerlach and Smets[1995], Glick andRose[1999] ). (2009) 107. 2 89 . (2) (2) 1, 0 . (2009) (classical business cycle) . (peak) (trough) .20) GDP, ., , . , , , , .21) . (2) () , . 20) Harding and Pagan(2002) ( ) x for (trough) , for (peak) . (2009) .21) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . 108. 90 2 . (bilateral) , () , () . IMF Direction of Trade, BIS (Consolidated Foreign Claims of BIS Reporting Bankson Individual Countries by Nationality of Reporting Banks) .2. < 2-15> . GDP, , . (2) . , . (/GDP), ( /GDP), ( ), ( ), ( ) . < 2-15> GDP , . , . 109. 2 91GDP GDP, , -1.131***(-2.92)4.497(1.56)0.052(0.06)-0.640***(-3.32)0.037(0.06)0.700***(3.29)-1.249***(-3.33)0.515(0.92)0.778***(3.68)-1.427***(-2.47)9.461(0.97)5.785***(2.34) pseudo R25150.182,4440.111,2450.213120.25< 2-15> : 1) (2009) ( ) z.2) *** 1% . (2009) , . BIS . , < 2-15> ., . . , 110. 92 2 . (fundamental) . .(2008) (dynamic factor model) . 1997 50% , 90% . 50% . , . (2009) . (2009) GDP .6 . , . . 111. 2 93 , . . . 2 3 , 2000 . . , .4 , , , . , ., 5 , . 112. 94 2 . . . , . . . 113. 2 95 , , KDI , 25 2, 2008, pp.149~156., , ,2009., , , 20 3, 2009, pp.125~160., , , 2010., ,, 2008, pp.55~89., , , 2010,pp.64~89.Binici, M., M. Hutchison, and M. Schindler, Controlling Capital? 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Weder, Sources of Contagion: Is it Finance or Trade?Journal of International Economics 54, 2001, pp.293~308. 116. 98 2 1: . 1994~95 1994 Chiapas , . 1993 280 1994 70 . 12 20 13% 12 22 . 1995 IMF . . 1994 12 . 1995 1 KOSPI 9.9% 2,204 . 1994 12 0.56%, 1995 10.17% , .. 1997~98 1997~98 . . 1997 1 23 KOSPI676.91 8 10 11 -27.2% -13.4% . 12 117. 2 99 8 12 12 350.68, 12 24 351.45 . 2008 3 570 , 6 16 KOSPI 280 . , 2007 1 849.88 12 44.7% 1,484 1998 1 1,706 . 1997 11 37.9 12 66.1 .. 2001 9.11 2001 9 11 9 11.1% 8.8%, 8.3%, 9.2% .22) KOSPI 9 12.0% , 10 . 9 0.6% , 24.7 15.8 .. 2002 IT 1995 6 6 .23) IT 2002 10 2 1/4 . KOSPI 2002 3 895.6 1 2003 322) .1990 8 2 0.81% , 19911 16 1.81% .23) Greenspan (irrationalexuberance) . 118. 100 2 40.2% 535.7 . 23.2% .24) 2002 2 10 8 2.9 , . 2002 1,300 2003 1,200 , .. 2007~08 . 2007 8 7 BNP Paribas MMF . ECB TED spread(T-bill toEurodollar rate) 2007 0.4%p 8 20 2.4%p . 2007 9 NothernRock . 8 8.7, 3/4 15.4 , 8 -65.3(1/4 -114.6) . 8 KOSPI 3.1% 1.6% , . , 64.5(1/4 40.0) .2008 3 Bear Sterns J.P.Morgan , 300 . 1/424) IT . , (2002 6 29), SK (2003 3 11) . 119. 2 101 12.6, 44.0 KOSPI 3.1% . 92.1 . 2008 9 15 . Merrill Lynch Bank ofAmerica 9 16 AIG , 9 25 Wasington MutualJ.P.Morgan . . 120. 102 2 Edwards andMontiel(1989) 2 15% 1962~82, 16 20 , , , Frankel andRose(1996) 25% 1971~92, 100 , , , , Eichengreen,Rose andWyplosz(1996)MPI1) 1.5 1959~93, 20 , , Sachs, Tornelland Velasco(1996)( )1990~94, 20 , , 2: , , . , 1990 , , .< 2-1> 121. 2 103 Kaminsky andReinhart(1998) 3 1970~95, 2015 (GDP , )Radelet andSachs(1998) 1994~97, 22 , , GDP Kamin et al.(2001) 1.75 1981~99, 26 , , GDP , , Cho and Hong(2001)Frankel and Rose(1996) 1980~97, 103 , , , Bussiere andFratzscher(2006)MPI1) 2 1993~2001, 20 , , , < 2-1> : 1) MPI(Market Pressure Index) log log 122. 1) () ()1 . (efficiency) , . . . , * . 123. 106 2 . . . , . 2 3 . , 2 . 2008 4/4 2009 1/4 -17.5% , . , (the great trade collapse) .1) 3 . , , . 3 1) , (international economics) (the great trade collapse) . Baldwin(2009) . 124. 3 107 , .2 , . (world trade volume) (world output) . Bems, Johnson, and Yi(2011) , 2009 1/4 3.7% , 15% 4 .2) , .3) Backus, Kehoe, andKydland(1995) , , 2) Engel and Wang(2009) 25 OECD , .3) , G20 . 125. 108 2 . . Erceg, Guerrieri, and Gust(2008) Wang(2010) , .4) , . , .5) (internationalized supply chain) . (vertical specialization) . Hummels, Ishii,and Yi(2001) , 1990 10 OECD 4 21% , 1970 30% . . , , 4) Erceg et al.(2008) , 75% , GDP 20% .5) (compositional effect) , . , Boileau(1999), Erceg et al.(2008), Levchenko et al.(2009), Engel and Wang(2009) Eaton et al.(2011) . 126. 3 109 , . , , . . , , . , , . .6)1. . . .6) . Alessandria et al.(2010) . 127. 110 2 . (testable hypothesis) . , , , . 23 . BEC(Broad Economic Category) UN Comtrade , , 2005 2007 .7) , 20084/4 2009 1/4 . .8) [ 3-1] 23 . [ 3-1] , , . 25% ., , IT 7) Comtrade < 3-1> .8) . 128. 3 111USAU.K.TurkeyThailandSouth A fricaSingaporeRussiaRep. of KoreaPhilippinesMexicoMalaysiaJapanItalyIndonesiaIndiaGermanyFranceHong KongChinaCanadaBrazilA ustraliaA rgentina-30-20-1001020300 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80(,%) (%)[ 3-1] : 2008 4/4~2009 1/4: .: UN, Comtrade Database; IMF, Direction of Trade Database; IMF, International FinancialStatistics; Global Insight. . [ 3-1] 23 , 2000 , 2001 4/4 . [ 3-2] IT . [ 3-1] [3-2] IT . [ 3-1] [ 3-2] 2001 . [ 3-1] , 10% , . , 2001 4/4 20% , 10% (%) 129. 112 2 USAU.K.TurkeyThailandSouth AfricaSingaporeRussia Rep. of Korea PhilippinesMexicoMalaysiaJapanItalyIndonesiaIndiaGermanyFranceHong KongChinaCanadaBrazilAustraliaArgentina-40-200204060800 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90(,%) (%)[ 3-2] : 2001 4/4: .: UN, Comtrade Database; IMF, Direction of Trade Database; IMF, International FinancialStatistics; Global Insight.[ 3-3] 2000 (2005100): BIS effective exchange rates. . .2001 4/4 , 13% , 4% . (%) 130. 3 113, 2008 4/4 2009 1/4 18% , 24% .9). . . 2008 4/4 2009 1/4 , . 6 (EU ) , BIS . < 3-1> . . , -0.32 , 1% . , 10%p 3%p .10)9) ( 3-1) .10) (cross-section) , 131. 114 2 -0.32***(0.09)-0.26**(0.08)-0.25**(0.10)--0.70(0.49)-0.83(0.51) - -1.27(1.27)3.85(4.18)-0.09(3.85)2.93(5.80) R20.33 0.36 0.36< 3-1> : 1) , .2) ( ) . *** ** 1% 5% .:UN, Comtrade Database; IMF, Direction of Trade Database; IMF, International FinancialStatistics; BIS, BIS effective exchange rates; Global Insight., , . , . , ., (the great trade collapse) . . . 132. 3 115 .11) , Levchenko, Lewis, and Tesar(2009) 2008 2009 , Eaton, Kortum,Neiman, and Romalis(2011) /GDP .. [ 3-1] , , ., [ 3-4] 1998 . , 65% , , 2009 32.9% . . 6 HS UN BEC , < 3-1> , .12)11) Baldwin(2009), Bems, Johnson, and Yi(2010) Levchenko, Lewis, and Tesar(2009) . 133. 116 2 [ 3-4] 2030405060701998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009(, %) : / < 3-1> .: UN, Comtrade Database.[ 3-5] . [ 3-5] , , 2009 . , 2008 4/42009 1/4 -27.0% , -15.2% . , [ 3-6] . [ 3-6] , 20084/4 2009 1/4 75% . , 2009 12) HS BEC UN Comtrade .(: %) 134. 3 117-40-30-20-10010203040503 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 122008 2009 2010(, %)()( )[ 3-5] -60-40-200204060803 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 122008 2009 2010(, %)( )( ): / < 3-1> .: .[ 3-6] : 1) .2) / < 3-1> .: . . . ( )( ) 135. 118 2 , .2. , (internationalized supply-chain) . , , .13) , , , . , . , 10 Extensive Margin Intensive Margin .Extensive Margin Schott(2009) Wakasugi(2009) , 6 HS , Intensive Margin .14) < 3-2> < 3-3> Extensive Margin Intensive Margin13) Dean et al.(2007) .14) Extensive Margin Intensive Margin , . Extensive Margin Intensive Margin Bernard,Jensen, Redding, and Schott(2009) . 136. 2007Average4,1043,1223,2701,4771,7641,6522,0354233939356582,44820081/44,1263,0603,1941,4801,8041,7122,1014774359637002,4582/44,1523,1933,3331,5451,8241,7022,1545064589657022,4983/44,1823,1863,3411,5641,8121,6822,1444844499816872,4964/44,1853,1363,2931,5121,7691,7102,2535044629637072,54420091/44,1483,0883,2331,4951,7221,6282,1834714249206742,4962/44,1783,1473,2991,5751,8521,6842,2934944709276882,4913/44,1843,1723,3191,6141,8421,7452,3455404649467372,5514/44,1713,1993,3711,6261,8481,7602,3525794709747662,494ExtensiveMargin:(:):ExtensiveMarginIntensiveMargin.:.3 119 137. 2007Average22,6236,5647,6931,1178186797055681,7281,2011,3334,67320081/424,1027,2048,2701,3148418071,0655401,8281,3401,5184,5172/427,5758,2299,4891,4631,0878851,0573521,9371,2171,4484,9323/427,4998,0329,3791,6351,2911,0059013882,5002,0711,6714,6194/422,2395,5746,6161,4651,1857026034081,4241,9821,2594,49120091/417,9425,3446,3521,0615955946043911,5141,1921,2613,3282/421,6286,6527,7251,3078055997813581,7261,0521,4723,8103/422,6537,5118,7681,2689316598033411,7511,0891,5103,8484/424,9277,9549,2681,4279587969173911,8541,4641,5294,023IntensiveMargin:(:):ExtensiveMarginIntensiveMargin.:.120 2 138. 3 121 . Extensive Margin . , , , Extensive Margin . , < 3-2> ExtensiveMargin . 2009 1/4 Extensive Margin , . , ., Iintensive Margin 2008 4/4 2009 1/4 , . Intensive Margin 2007 2008 4/4 2009 1/4 1.7% 20.7% . Intensive Margin , .15)3. (trade credit) , 15) , Schott(2009) Wakasugi(2009) , . 139. 122 2 4050607080901003 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 32006 2007 2008 2009 2010(%) / /[ 3-7] : ; . . , . , .16), [ 3-7] , 2008 4/4 20091/4 , .17)16) , .17) . 2008 11 160 . / / 140. 3 123 IMF BAFT-IFSA 2008 12 2010 .18) , . 2007 4/4 43% (open accounttransaction) 2008 4/4 2009 1/4 39% 38% , (bank-intermediated transaction) 35% 40% . IMFBAFT-IFSA , [ 3-7] . [ 3-8] . [ 3-8] . , 2008 4/4 2009 1/4 , . , ( ) . . 18) , Asmundson et al.(2011) . 141. 124 2 02468103 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 32007 2008 2009 2010(, %) : (AA-)-[ 3-8] : ; . IMF BAFT-IFSA . , , . , Asmundson et al.(2011) .19)4. 19) Asmundson et al.(2011) , . Chor andManova(2010) , , (external finance) . , Ahn, Amiti, and Weinstein(2011) , , . : (AA) 142. 3 125 (Great Trade Collapse) . ., . , , 75% . , , . , . ExtensiveMargin Intensive Margin , Intensive Margin , Extensive Margin , . . . 143. 126 2 EU ASEAN 1990 0.9 29.8 19.4 15.4 8.0 4.0 3.21995 7.3 19.3 13.6 13.0 14.4 3.9 5.92000 10.7 21.8 11.9 13.6 11.7 4.4 5.42005 21.8 14.5 8.4 15.4 9.6 4.3 5.32010 25.1 10.7 6.0 11.5 11.4 6.1 7.83 1. 20 . 2000 20.3% , 8.6% . , < 3-4> 2000 10.7% 2010 25.1% . , 90% . , 2000 , . , , . < 3-4> (: %): KDI . 144. 3 127[ 3-9] (, %): , EU, , ASEAN, ,, .: KDI . . 2008 4/4 , LCD , .20) . 20) 2008 () . TV, , , 4 , , 13% . , LCD 2008~10 34.8% 356.7% . , 2009 50% , 2008~10 437.0% .2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011806040200-20-40 145. 128 2 . , , .2. , 2000 , . 2000~08 22.4% , 2009 11.3% , 2010 38.7% . UN BEC , 2010 42.1% , (25.6%), (25.4%), (5.6%) . [ 3-11] 2000 , . 2006 [ 3-10] ( , %): .50403020100-10-202001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.190.39-0.11 146. 3 129[ 3-11] , ., < 3-5> , 2009 19.9% 2010 52.5% . 2000~08 33.0% 2009~10 10.5% . . , 2009~10 22.1% , 2001~08 22.2% ., , ,21) 22) 1821) (%)60504030201002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 147. 130 2 2008 2009 2010 2009~10 53.0 -19.9 52.5 10.5(33.0) 8.7 -7.5 30.8 10.0(18.4) 12.6 -7.6 29.6 9.4(15.8) 5.0 -7.3 32.1 10.6(21.7) 12.3 -9.5 37.9 11.7(19.3) 9.9 -12.1 34.2 8.6(18.6) 21.6 -0.4 49.7 22.1(22.2) 16.5 -0.5 29.2 13.4(17.8) 30.1 -0.3 80.7 34.2(33.8)< 3-5> ( )(: %): 1) UN BEC .2) ( ) 2001~08 . . < 3-2> , , , , . , , , . , , , .23). () , .22) , . .23) , . , 148. 3 131[ 3-12] : .[ 3-12] 2000 45% , , . 2010 55.1% , 31.2% ., 2006 31.3% 2010 22.8% . 3 , . , . 2009 13.8% , 12.6% . .(%)6050403020100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 149. 50403020100-10-20 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.440.33-0.07-0.15132 2 [ 3-13] : vs : . 2006 9.3% 2010 7.1% , .[ 3-13] 2000 . 2000 , . , , . , [3-14] 2010 . , 2006 59.7% 2010 52.9% , 9.3% 16.8% . < 3-6> / . (%) 150. 3 1332000 2005(A) 2008 2009 2010(B) BA 69.0 74.3 78.6 78.8 79.9 5.6%p 24.1 16.3 11.0 10.7 9.4 -6.9%p 2.6 6.7 8.1 8.9 8.9 2.2%p 4.2 2.6 2.3 1.6 1.8 -0.9%p 22.5 21.0 29.7 33.6 36.1 15.1%p 58.6 60.0 51.6 49.8 47.6 -12.4%p 7.6 11.8 13.9 13.5 13.8 2.0%p 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2% 40.1 66.5 67.0 70.4 69.9 3.3%p 3.8 11.8 14.7 12.5 11.7 -0.1% 20.4 9.8 13.0 12.9 14.9 5.1%p 35.6 7.4 5.3 4.1 3.5 -3.9%p[ 3-14] : .< 3-6> (: %): .6050403020100(%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.530.300.17 151. 134 2 . , . , < 3-6> 2000 . , 2000 , 2005~10 15.1%p . , 2000 . , , . , .3. , . 2009 12.5% , 2010 23.7% 2008 8.2% . [ 3-15] 2010 2008 EU, , . , .(2009) 1990 2000 , , . . Haltmaier et al.(2007) 152. 3 135[ 3-15] 2008~10 : 2008 2010 .: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics. 1990 . , . 2000 . , ., < 3-7> , . 2010 50403020100-10-20-30(%) ( ) EU 12.619.728.637.3 153. 136 2 < 3-7> (: %)2001 2005(A) 2008 2009 2010(B) BA 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0%p 64.4 38.6 38.8 35.1 33.1 -5.5%p 21.6 38.8 38.6 40.7 41.2 2.5%p 11.2 20.3 19.5 21.3 22.2 1.9%p 2.5 1.9 2.6 2.5 3.1 1.2%p: UN BEC . 41.2% , (33.1%), (22.2%) . 2000 ., [ 3-16] 2008~10 EU, , .24) , 2009 . , EU , -0.8% .25)24) , (, [ 3-16] ). . , . , , .25) , 21) . ,2008~10 LCD (HS 901390) 114.0% , . , , 2008 2010 97.7% 93.6% , LCD 154. 3 137[ 3-16] EU : ., 2010 . , , , . . , .50403020100-10-20-30(%)50403020100-10-20-30(%)50403020100-10-20-30(%)50403020100-10-20-30-40(%) 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 20102008 2009 20102008 2009 2010-0.11-0.06-0.090.310.350.29-0.240.080.32 0.32-0.040.14-0.24-0.01-0.130.230.420.35 0.320.230.380.04-0.25-0.05 155. 138 2 2001 2005(A) 2008 2009 2010(B) BA 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0%p 28.4 17.5 16.2 15.4 13.7 -3.8%p 5.4 8.4 8.1 9.8 10.6 2.2%p 4.1 3.4 4.2 4.7 5.5 2.1%p 0.3 0.5 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.5%p 38.4 30.0 30.5 31.9 32.1 2.0%p 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0%p 36.1 21.2 22.7 19.6 19.4 -1.8%p 16.2 30.4 30.5 30.9 30.7 0.2%p 7.0 16.9 15.3 16.6 16.7 -0.2%p 2.2 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.1 -0.2%p 61.6 70.0 69.5 68.0 67.9 -2.0%p< 3-8> (: %): .: . . , [ 3-17] 2009 8.5% , 9.8% . 2010 . 2010 (54.6%) (30.0%) ., < 3-9> . 156. 3 139[ 3-17] ()A. B. : . . , . . , EU 2005~10 12.6%p ., (%)(%)120100806040200-20 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-0.09-0.020.280.300.64-0.18 120100806040200-202005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.610.550.400.10-0.01-0.10 157. EU2005(A)2010(B)BA2005(A)2010(B)BA2005(A)2010(B)BA15.821.75.9%p3.14.10.9%p1.51.50.0%p15.416.30.9%p17.515.5-2.0%p14.114.80.7%p8.47.2-1.2%p17.820.72.9%p11.116.15.0%p14.013.6-0.4%p20.120.10.0%p7.113.05.9%p2.86.63.8%p4.016.612.6%p1.86.44.6%p56.465.49.0%p62.577.014.4%35.651.816.2%4.43.1-1.3%p2.21.3-0.9%p0.10.20.1%p11.610.3-1.3%p9.57.2-2.3%p20.517.3-3.3%p17.315.4-2.0%p10.77.4-3.3%p25.719.9-5.8%p8.04.3-3.8%p14.16.3-7.8%p16.29.7-6.4%p2.11.3-0.6%p0.90.80.0%p1.51.1-0.4%p43.434.4-9.0%p37.423.0-14.3%p64.048.2-15.8%p(:%):.:.140 2 158. 3 1412001 2005(A) 2008 2009 2010(B) BA 26.3 11.7 10.1 9.8 8.7 -3.0%p13.6 7.4 8.6 6.2 5.7 -1.7%p 12.1 18.3 20.4 22.0 23.4 5.1%p48.0 62.6 60.9 62.0 62.2 -0.4%p< 3-10> (: %): .: . . (intra-firm trade) . , . , 2005~10 5.1%p , , EU 15.7%p,24.7%p 18.5%p .4. , . , , 2000 . 2010 159. 142 2 EU 2005(A)2010(B)BA2005(A)2010(B)BA2005(A)2010(B)BA 35.8 29.2 -6.7%p 37.5 27.1 -10.3%p 16.2 13.6 -2.5%p5.6 4.1 -1.5%p 5.6 3.4 -2.2%p 6.9 5.0 -1.8%p 20.7 36.3 15.7%p 25.1 49.9 24.7%p 19.6 38.1 18.5%p37.9 30.4 -7.5%p 31.8 19.6 -12.2%p 57.3 43.2 -14.1%p< 3-11> (: %): .: . 55.1% , 31.2% . . , .26) , 26) Haltmaier et al.(2007) VAR . , , , , , . , Kose et al.(2008) 1985~2005 (emerging market economies) , (decoupling) . 160. 3 143 ., . , 2000 , ., 2009 2010 9.8% 40.1% -8.5%28.5% . , . , EU, , . , 2010 , .27) [ 3-16] 2009 , 2010 . , .27) (2009) 3 . , . 161. 144 2 4 . 2 , 32000 , . ., , ., 2000 , . , EU, , . , , . 162. 3 145 , . . , , . , , . .28), , . 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K., US Trade Margins during the 2008 Crisis, in Richard Baldwin (ed.),The Great Trade Collapse: Causes, Consequences, and Prospects, 2009.Wakasugi, R., Why was Japans Trade Hit so much Harder, in Richard Baldwin(ed.), The Great Trade Collapse: Causes, Consequences, and Prospects, 2009.Wang, J., Durable Goods and the Collapse of Global Trade, Economic Letter, Vol.5, No. 2, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 2010.Yi, K., Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade, Journal ofPolitical Economy, Vol. 111, No. 1, 2003, pp.52~102. 168. 3 151Broad Economic Classification 1 Food and Beverage 11 Primary 111 Mainly for industry 112 Mainly for household consumption 12 Processed 121 Mainly for industry 122 Mainly for household consumption 2 Industrial Supplies, n.e.s. 21 Primary 22 Processed 3 Fuel and Lubricants 31 Primary 32 Processed 321 Moto spirit 322 Other 4 Machinery, Capital Equipment(except transport)and accessories thereof41 Machinery and other capital equipment excepttransport42 Parts and accessories 5 Transport Equipment and accessories thereof 51 Passenger motor cars 52 Other 521 Industrial 522 Non-industrial 53 Parts and accessories 6 Consumer goods, n.e.s. -61 Durable 62 Semi-durable 63 Non-durable 7 Goods, n.e.s. < 3-1> UN BEC code : .: UN BEC UN Comtrade data base . 169. 152 2 (Ordinary trade)(Processing with imported materials)(Processing and Assembling) (Equipment for processing trade) (Warehousing trade) (Entrepot trade by bonded area) (Equipment imported into EPZ)(International Aid) (Donation by overseas Chinese)(Compensation trade)(Goods on Consignment)(Border trade)(Goods on lease) /(equip./materials investment by FIE)(Outward Processing)(Barter trade)(Duty-free Commodity)(Other)< 3-2> 170. 30) () (KDI )1 . , . 2008 4/4 , 2009 1998 . 1 , , 2009 . , 1998 2009 . 1997~98 2008~09 [ 4-1] . 2008~09 , * . 171. 154 2 -8-6-4-202468t-8 t-6 t-4 t-2 t t+2 t+4 t+6 t+8(, %)t= 1997Q 4t= 2008Q 30123456789t-8 t-6 t-4 t-2 t t+2 t+4 t+6 t+8(%)t= 1997Q 4t= 2008Q 3t=1997 Q4t=2008 Q386420-2-4-6-8t-8 t-6 t-4 t-2 t t+2 t+4 t+6 t+8 t-8 t-6 t-4 t-2 t t+2 t+4 t+6 t+89876543210t=1997 Q4t=2008 Q3(, %) (%)[ 4-1] . . , , . , ( ) , , . , . 2 4 . 5 , 6 OECD , 7 . 172. 4 1552 2009 1998 1998 2009 . 6.2%(127 ) 4.4%p 1998 -5.9% , 0.3%(7 ) 0.4%p 2009 0.2% . Okuns Law GDP (+) , GDP () , 1990 GDP [ 4-2] .1), [ 4-2] , 1998 , 2009 . , 1998 , 2009 .2)1) 1990 1990 (2011) .2) 1998 . Betcherman and Islam(2001) ,, , , , 173. 156 2 [ 4-2] , -8-6-4-20246-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 ( % )(%)9809990095909101029693080305041009 08 070605040302010099989796 959493929190-3-2-1012345-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12(%p) ( % ) GDP (1990:I~2010:III) . - -GDP , (Error Correction , .Kang et al.(2001) , 1987 . Fallon and Lucas(2002) , , , , , , , GDP , .(%)(%) 174. 4 157Model) .3) , GDP , . t- - -GDP 1 , GDP , ( ).4)5) (1) , GDP 1% 0.25% , , ., -0.074, GDP 7~8%( 25% ) .6)3) .4) FM2SLS(Fully Modified 2-Step Least Squares) Johansen . FM2SLS 1 Phillips and Hansen(1990) FMOLS , 2 . Johansen FM2SLS , GDP . ,Johansen Cholesky GDP , , FM2SLS GDP , .5) , AIC 1 .6) , . , GDP , . 175. 158 2 [ 4-3] -0.08-0.06-0.04-0.020.000.020.041990Q1 1992Q1 1994Q1 1996Q1 1998Q1 2000Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 2010Q1: 1) 1990Q1 1990 1/4(Quarter) .2) 1997 4/4, 2008 3/4 .[ 4-3] GDP . , 1996 GDP 2% . 1997~98 . , 1998 , 1999 5% . 1999 3 , 2002 . , 1997~98 ,2008~09 . () , GDP . , GDP GDP , . 176. 4 159[ 4-4] : -0.020-0.015-0.010-0.0050.0000.0050.0100.0151990Q2 1992Q2 1994Q2 1996Q2 1998Q2 2000Q2 2002Q2 2004Q2 2006Q2 2008Q2 2010Q2: 1) 1990Q2 1990 2/4(Quarter) .2) 1997 4/4, 2008 3/4 . , .7), [ 4-4] (1) . 1998 . , GDP 0.5~1% . , 2008~09 . 2008 4/4 1% (+) . (Lehman Brothers) GDP 7) 1977 1~2007 12 (2010) . , 3 ( 1: 19771~1987 6, 2: 1987 7~1997 6, 3: 1999 7~2007 12) , 6 1 2 3 , 1980 , . , , . 177. 160 2 2008 4/4 GDP . , 2008 1997~98 , . , GDP , . 1997~98 . . GDP , GDP GDP ( ). (2) , Hodrick-Prescott () GDP . GDP , GDP 1%p 0.155%p, 0.326%p(=0.155/(1-0.524)) . , 1998 2009 GDP( -7.0% -2.3%) 4.7%p 1.5%p , GDP . [ 4-5] 1998 GDP 1%p 178. 4 161[ 4-5] : -0.8-0.40.00.40.81.21990Q2 1992Q2 1994Q2 1996Q2 1998Q2 2000Q2 2002Q2 2004Q2 2006Q2 2008Q2 2010Q2: 1) 1990Q2 1990 2/4(Quarter) .2) 1997 4/4, 2008 3/4 . , 2008~09 GDP .3 . 1 , 1997~98 , 2008~09 . [ 4-6] GDP , 1997~98 2007~09 . GDP Hodrick-Prescott /GDP . ([2008] ) , 1997~98 179. 162 2 [ 4-6] /GDP /GDP0.660.680.700.720.740.760.78t-8 t-6 t-4 t-2 t t+2 t+4 t+6 t+8t= 2008 Q3t= 1997Q3-0.03-0.02-0.010.000.010.02t-8 t-6 t-4 t-2 t t+2 t+4 t+6 t+8t= 2008Q3t= 1997Q3 . , . ( ) , 1%p 0.2% ( ).8) (3)8) , ( ) ( ) GDP . , . 1% 0.3% , 1% 0.05% . 5 . 2~3 , 2 .t=2008 Q3t=1997 Q30.780.760.740.720.700.680.66t-8 t-6 t-4 t-2 t t+2 t+4 t+6 t+80.020.010.00-0.01-0.02-0.03t=2008 Q3t=1997 Q3t-8 t-6 t-4 t-2 t t+2 t+4 t+6 t+8 180. 4 163 GDP 1997~98 . (1) (3) , 19981/4 (1) 1.4% (3) 0.7% 1997~98 . 1997~98 2008~09 , 1997~98 ., . (2) /GDP , ( ). 199899 . (4)4 GDP . , . (3) (4) 181. 164 2 (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) 0.152(0.099)0.141(0.101)0.130(0.115)0.143(0.101)0.163(0.098)0.102(0.098)0.074(0.115)0.269***(0.039)0.253***(0.050)0.211***(0.050)0.258***(0.047)0.254***(0.040)0.120*(0.066)0.060(0.075) 0.127**(0.050)0.121**(0.052)0.071(0.058)0.116**(0.057)0.123**(0.050)0.144***(0.049)0.092(0.056) 0.236***(0.077)0.230***(0.078)0.226**(0.087)0.237***(0.078)0.222***(0.077)0.108(0.087)0.075(0.101)-0.061(0.041)-0.058(0.042)-0.084*(0.047)-0.062(0.041)-0.079*(0.043)-0.061(0.042)-0.079(0.048)0.003(0.006)0.018**(0.008)0.016*(0.008)0.010(0.023)(%)-0.005(0.004)-0.008**(0.004)-0.006(0.004)*0.477**(0.188)0.504**(0.201) 78 78 58 78 78 78 580.656 0.657 0.714 0.656 0.665 0.693 0.749adjusted 0.632 0.628 0.680 0.627 0.636 0.662 0.708< 4-1> : - -GDP , , GDP . < 4-1> < 4-2> .9) (BSI, (B)), (CSI, (C)) (Leading, (D)) , 9) < 4-1> < 4-2> (A)(E) , (1) (2) . (1) (2) . . 182. 4 165< 4-2> (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) -0.156***(0.020)-0.105***(0.024)-0.107***(0.029)-0.121***(0.024)-0.151***(0.021)-0.057**(0.023)0.017(0.028) -0.021(0.029)-0.061**(0.029)-0.057*(0.033)-0.034(0.028)-0.026(0.029)-0.037(0.024)-0.075***(0.024) 0.525***(0.061)0.561***(0.058)0.531***(0.069)0.573***(0.063)0.523***(0.062)0.552***(0.050)0.579***(0.051) 0.139***(0.034)-0.130***(0.032)-0.097**(0.042)-0.128***(0.033)-0.134***(0.035)-0.087***(0.029)-0.034(0.031)-0.008***(0.002)-0.010**(0.004)-0.014***(0.003)-0.021**(0.009)(%)0.166(0.197)0.112(0.160)0.059(0.154)*-0.344***(0.055)-0.369***(0.053) 79 79 58 79 79 79 580.934 0.943 0.947 0.938 0.934 0.957 0.973adjusted 0.930 0.939 0.942 0.934 0.930 0.954 0.970: , -GDP, , GDP , Hodrick-Prescott () GDP . ((E)) . ((F)). CSI , BSI,CSI, CSI . 183. 166 2 , . , . , .10) 1997~98 , . [ 4-7] [ 4-8] , CSI 199798 , .[ 4-7] : , CSI-0.015-0.010-0.0050.0000.0050.0100.0151996Q2 1998Q2 2000Q2 2002Q2 2004Q2 2006Q2 2008Q2 2010Q2/ GDP, CSI: 1) 1996Q2 1996 2/4(Quarter) .2) 1997 4/4, 2008 3/4 .10) , GDP , GDP . 184. 4 167[ 4-8] : , CSI-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01996Q2 1998Q2 2000Q2 2002Q2 2004Q2 2006Q2 2008Q2 2010Q2/ GDP, CSI: 1) 1996Q2 1996 2/4(Quarter) .2) 1997 4/4, 2008 3/4 .5 , . 1997~98 2008~09 . 200809 , , 2009 1.2% 28 4 . . 1999 1.0% 20 7 . , [ 4-9] . , , . 2009 , 185. 168 2 < 4-3> (: , )1998 1999 2008 2009 (A) (B) (BA) (C) (D) (DC) 219 379 160 127 321 194 - 47 47 3 54 51 - - - 105 144 39219(1.1%)426(2.1%)207235(1.0%)519(2.2%)284: ( ) .: , , 2001; , 2011.[ 4-9] : vs. 103 4.4% . 2008 (84, 3.6%) 19 2( 0.8%) .[ 4-9] , 2 , 1 30~40% . -10-8-6-4-202468t-8 t-6 t-4 t-2 t t+2 t+4 t+6 t+8(, %)t=20083/4t=19973/4-20-1001020304050t-8 t-6 t-4 t-2 t t+2 t+4 t+6 t+8(, %)t=20083/4t=19974/4t=2008 3/4t=1997 3/486420-2-4-6-8-10t-8 t-6 t-4 t-2 t t+2 t+4 t+6 t+8t=1997 3/4t=2008 3/4t-8 t-6 t-4 t-2 t t+2 t+4 t+6 t+850403020100-10-20(, %) (, %) 186. 4 169 , . , ., ( P) ( G) . (5) (6) , . 1 , [ 4-9] , 2~3 . 2~3 () , ., GDP , . GDP 0.468 0.241 , 187. 170 2 .6 OECD 200809 199798 . OECD . . , , . . [ 4-10] [ 4-11] , , , , OECD . , , . OECD , . , .11) 2007~09 OECD 188. 4 171-10-8-6-4-20246HungaryPortugalJapanDenmarkUnitedItalyUnitedKoreaGreeceEstoniaTurkeyMexicoFranceNewFinlandCzechGermanySlovakCanadaSwedenNetherlandsSloveniaAustriaSwitzerlandBelgiumChileSpainAustraliaNorwayIrelandIsraelPolandIceland20072009(%)(%)6420-2-4-6-8-102007200902468101214161820IcelandNorwayNetherlandsKoreaSwitzerlandMexicoNewDenmarkJapanAustraliaAustriaIrelandUnitedEstoniaSloveniaCzechUnitedItalyCanadaSwedenFinlandChileIsraelHungaryBelgiumFrancePortugalGreeceSpainGermanyPolandTurkeySlovak20072009(%)(%)2007200920181614121086420[ 4-10] OECD [ 4-11] OECD . , .11) OECD OECD(2010) , IMF(2010) . 1 . N e w 200720096420-2-4-6-8102007200920181614121086420 N e w 189. 172 2 (7) (7) , () 2009 2007 . GDP , 200007 . . , , GDP GDP .OECD 31 < 4-4> , , .< 4-4> < 4-1> < 4-2> , .12) , 0.30 , (2) .13)OECD .14) 19 200007 200709 12) < 4-4> (A) (C) (1) , (B) (D) < 4-1> (A) . (E) < 4-1> (E) .13) (2) GDP -0.155/(1-0.524)=-0.326 , < 4-2> (A) (-0.156-0.021)/(1-0.525)=-0.373 .14) OECD(2010) , 1 . 190. 4 173< 4-4> : OECD, 2007~09 31 19 (A) (B) (C) (D) (E)0.011**(0.005)0.002(0.006)0.002(0.010)0.018(0.0140.013(0.017)1) 0.545***(0.087)0.575***(0.081)0.304(0.199)0.048(0.257)0.167(0.386)(GDP ) 0.374**(0.150)-0.809(0.536)-0.650(0.666)/100( )-0.047(0.110) 0.575 0.653 0.121 0.230 0.239 (A) (B) (C) (D) (E)-0.256(0.307)0.089(0.329)-0.334(0.611)0.281(0.587)0.172(0.581)2) -0.277***(0.053)-0.278***(0.050)-0.336**(0.131)-0.443***(0.122)-0.327**(0.150)(GDP ) -0.268**(0.122)-0.708**(0.282)-0.572*(0.296)( )-0.057(0.043) 0.482 0.558 0.277 0.482 0.534: 1) 2007 2009 .2) 2008~09 2001~07 . .15) , . 15) 200007 200709 . 191. 174 2 , .7 . 1997~98 2008~09 . 2008~09 1997~98 , , . 1997~98 . , 2~3 , 1997~98 2008~09 . , . , , . 192. 4 175 , . 193. 176 2 , , KDI ,2008 , 2008, pp.153~164., , - , , 2011., , , , 2010, pp.27~71., , , , 2010, pp.9~26., , 2011 , 2011.Betcherman, G. and R. Islam, East Asian Labor Markets and the Economic Crisis:An Overview, in Betcherman, G. and R. Islam (eds.), East Asian LaborMarkets and the Economic Cirisis: Impacts, Responses and Lessons, WorldBank, 2001, pp.3~37.Kang, S., J. Keun, D. Kim, and D. Shin, Korea: Labor Market Outcomes andPolicy Responses after the Crisis, in Betcherman, G. and R. Islam (eds.),East Asian Labor Markets and the Economic Cirisis: Impacts, Responses andLessons, World Bank, 2001, pp.97~140.Fallon, P. and R. Lucas, The Impact of Financial Crises on Labor Markets,Household Incomes, and Poverty: A Review of Evidence, The World BankResearch Observer, Vol. 17, No. 1, 2002, pp.21~45.IMF, Financial Soundness Indicators(http://fsi.imf.org/), 2010.OECD, Economic ReviewKorea, Economic and Development Review Committee,Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, May 2010.Okun, A., Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance, in AmericanStatistical Association, Proceedings of the Business and Economics andStatistics, 1962, pp.98~104.Phillips, P. C. B. and B. Hansen, Statistical Inference in Instruemental VariablesRegressions with I(1) Processes, Review of Economic Studies, 1990,pp.99~125. 194. 4 177ADFDF-GLSKPSSGDP -2.309 -1.496 4.402*** -3.014 -2.444 0.869*** -3.825**-3.705***0.225** -2.560 -2.500 1.676*** < 4-1> : 1) ADF DF-GLS , KPSS .2) ***, ** * 1%, 5% 10% .3) , 1990:~2010:.: , ; , . 195. 178 2 Engle-Granger - -3.354**-3.332**-2.417lag: SIC z- -27.404 -27.193****-10.930Phillips-Ouliaris - -2.672 -2.480 -2.728lag: SIC z- -13.867 -12.185 -14.201 Engle-Granger - -3.354**-3.332**-2.417lag: AIC z- -27.404 -27.193****-10.930Phillips-Ouliaris - -2.672 -2.480 -2.728lag: AIC z- -13.867 -12.185 -14.201Johansen r=0 r1 r=0 r1 r=0 r1Trace 11.747 3.397 11.056 3.780 12.946 2.194max 8.350 3.397 7.277 3.780 10.752 3.841< 4-2> -GDP : 1) Engle-Granger Phillips-Ouliaris .2) ***, ** * 1%, 5% 10% .3) , 1990:~2010:.: , ; , . 196. 197. 1) ()1 2008 , . , 1997 . 1997 .