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© All rights reserved. Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012. Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments Vincent Duhamel Head of Asia October 2012

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Page 1: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

© All rights reserved. Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.

Lombard Odier’s Risk ParityAsia Allocation Process

Managing your portfolio through different marketenvironments

Vincent DuhamelHead of Asia October 2012

Page 2: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.Please see important information at the end of the document.

Table of contents

Overview of Lombard Odier Where is Asia going from here The limits of traditional portfolios construction Investment process in Asia – The four principles Conclusion

2

Page 3: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012

Overview of Lombard Odier

3

Page 4: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.Please see important information at the end of the document.

19 bn

164 bn

We are 100% private and have been for more than 200 years. The firm is owned by 16 partners.

With USD 164 billion of AUM and almost 1,900 staff spread across 24 offices around the world, we are small, but with critical mass and a global footprint.

An overview of Lombard Odier

Asset management is, and always has been, our core business. Today we manage money for Institutional and Private Clients.

Lombard Odier Investment Managers (LOIM) is the asset management division of Lombard Odier, focused on Institutional and Third-Party Distributor/Financial Intermediaries.

4

40 bn

LOIM ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT (USD)

GROUP ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT (USD)

Fixed Income& Currencies

Equities* AssetAllocation

IlliquidStrategies

24%LOIM

76%PRIVATE CLIENTS

Data as of 30 June 2012. * Includes Convertibles.

12 bn 8 bn 1 bn

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Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.R E S T R I C T E D

Credit Our balance sheet is not exposed to mortgages or to commercial or structured credit. Our credit activity is low (reserved for our clients with liquid and good-quality collateral and mostly through lombard credits). We are one of the rare financial institutions without structural debt.

Capital

Investments We are not engaged in high-risk activities. We work with counterparts that we know and closely monitor: our limits are precisely defined and monitored daily (notably, in 2008 we

had no exposure to Lehman Brothers, AIG or Washington Mutual). Client assets are clearly separated from Lombard Odier's balance sheet. Independent from products and services providers.

Our Firm has an excellent Fitch rating (AA-), the best for an institution of its size. This positions us as one of the most solid financialinstitutions in Switzerland and abroad.

Our balance sheet is very liquid, and our capital ratio (Tier 1) is a multiple of the statutory requirement. The Bank’s capital is principally invested in AAA instruments. Independent from capital providers.

A safe haven in turbulent timesKey points of the business model

5

Page 6: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.

A strategically located Asian network

Winner of Asian Private Banker Awardsfor Distinction 2011 – Best DiscretionaryPortfolio Services

Merchant bank licence

Asset management and private bankingservices

Regulated by The Monetary Authority ofSingapore (MAS)

33 employees

Singapore (2006)

• Asset manager licence

• Asset management and private banking services• Regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures

Commission (HKSFC)

• 36 employees

Hong Kong (1987)

USD 8bn of AuM with USD 1.5bn for institutionalclients

One of our partners, Vincent Duhamel, based inAsia

Specialized institutional and private wealthmanagement teams

Asia (3 countries)

Trust licence

Asset consulting, investment advice, discretionary management, securities intermediary services and reporting services

Regulated by the Financial Services Agency (FSA)

23 employees

Tokyo (1992)

Lombard Odier was awarded the 2011 distinction for best Asian Private Bank*

6

Page 7: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012

Where is Asia going from here ?

7

Page 8: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.

Today China has over 200 cities with a population of at least 1mnand India over 60 ……………(vs. only 52 in U.S.)

The percentage of Chinese living in cities nearly doubled in thepast two decades from 26% in 1990 to 51% today …………..(vs.80% in U.S.)

Continued mass migration from rural to urban areas in China andIndia will cause urban population to nearly double again by 2050from 1.6 billion to 3 billion in 2050.

This will create social issues, but will multiple by multiple ordersthe level of domestic consumption….and thereby the domesticindustry to feed this demand.

Urbanization will drive growth forward

8

Page 9: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.

China is currently the world leader in graduateproduction with 18% of the total and India with11% trails only America’s 14%

By 2020 China will have grown to 29% of theworld’s total population of graduates and Indiawith 12% will have surpassed America’spercentage, which will have fallen to 11% .

The creation of an intellectual cadre will createinnovation and drive India and China up theladder of value addition…..a position that iscurrently still held by the West.

Education will drive innovation and value addition

9

Page 10: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.

China and India have made steady progress up the ranking of innovation by the Economist IntelligenceUnit (the rankings inputs include patent output, broadband penetration, R&D as % of GDP, education ofworkforce and quality of local research).

Today’s outsourced manufacturing will become tomorrow’s brand name global companies.

Rapid Emergence of World Class Companies

10

Page 11: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.

Asia has sound Fiscal Foundations

11

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%

Emerging Asia EEMEA Latin America

Inflation

2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Emerging Asia EEMEA Latin America

Public Debt as % of GDP

2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E

-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%

10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%

Current Accounts Surplus/Deficit 2011 2012E

% o

f GDP

Source : Credit Suisse (EM Quartely, January 2012) Aggregates for regions are weighted by 2010 nominal GDP ($bn) figures. Asia doesn’t include Japan.

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Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.Please see important information at the end of the document.

Source: Asia 2050 : Realizing the Asian Century, Asian Development Bank

Asia will be more than 50% of global GDP by 2050

Asia’s share of the Global GDP, 1700 - 2050

Asia will continue to increase its share of global output

12

Page 13: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.Please see important information at the end of the document.

Source: The world in 2050, HSBC January 2011

Asia will account for a greater share of global consumption

Growth in income per capita 2010 - 2050

Asian economies will experience huge leap in personal income

13

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Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.

Emerging Market’s share of Financial Markets will come in line with realities

Despite accounting for nearly 50% of GDP and 70% of global growth, EM assets in general are severely under-represented in DM portfolios.

Source: Emerging Appetite, EM Bonds from a DM Perspective, BCA Research

14

Page 15: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.Please see important information at the end of the document.

Source: The future of international capital flows, Bank of England, 2011

Global portfolios will diversify away from their homemarkets

Portfolio equity home bias over time

Emerging market’s share of Financial Markets will come in line with realities

15

Page 16: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.Please see important information at the end of the document.

The Asian trend is here to stay

Irrespective of short term volatility, the broader direction of Asian economies is irreversible.

Asia will grow faster economically, has a better demographic profile, will consume more, and willhave deeper financial markets. This trend will not change, and will lead to continued growth.

The structural realignment of Asia vs. West will create a radically different wealth and investmentpicture than is accepted today.

All long term investors (trusts, generational wealth, long term growth accounts) must have Asia andEmerging markets as a meaningful portion of their portfolios.

16

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Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012

The limits of traditional portfolios construction

17

Page 18: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.Please see important information at the end of the document.

The Traditional Plan Sponsor Process

Assets & LiabilitiesAsset Owner

Investment Committee

CIO / Consultant

Asset Manager

Policy PortfolioAllocation across asset classes

Decision Body Investment Decision Objective / Result

Asset owner risk & return objectives

Diversification, asset class risk premium - beta

Diversification

Excess Return - alpha

Style / Category AllocationAllocation to categories within asset classes

Benchmarked ProductsAllocation within style categories

Activeness : 75% passive, 25% activeManager : 85% external, 15% internal

18

Page 19: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.Please see important information at the end of the document.

Structural issues in financial markets

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

THE 1990 RECESSION

-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%

Gbl

Equit

ies

EMEq

uities

Gbl B

onds

US C

orp.

Cred

it

Comm

oditi

es

-80%-60%-40%-20%

0%

Gbl E

quitie

s

EM E

quitie

s

Gbl B

onds

US C

orp.…

Comm

odit…

HFRX

-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%

Gbl E

quitie

s

EM E

quitie

s

Gbl B

onds

US C

orp.…

Comm

oditie

s

HFRX

-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%

Gbl E

quitie

s

EM E

quitie

s

Gbl B

onds

US C

orp.

Cred

itCo

mmod

ities

THE SUBPRIME BUBBLE

THE TECH BUBBLE

MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN OF A PORTFOLIO WITH GLOBAL STOCKS

THE EMU SOVEREIGN CRISIS

Source: Lombard Odier Investment Managers’ analysis

In market crises, which are increasingly frequent, diversification from different asset classes often fails to work.

19

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Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.Please see important information at the end of the document. 20

Equity risk is by far the main risk factor Adding other asset classes (credit, convertibles, etc.) does not improve diversification A one-bet portfolio: «the stock market goes up, you win; the stock market goes down, you lose»

“Conventional” balanced portfolios are biased toward equity risk

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Drawdowns of a traditional weight-balanced portfolio (60% Bonds / 40% Equity) and of its equity component

Equity component of the traditional portfolio Traditional portfolio

Correlation between drawdown of the traditional portfolio and its equity component: 77%

Page 21: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.Please see important information at the end of the document.

358

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

déc. 69 déc. 72 déc. 75 déc. 78 déc. 81 déc. 84 déc. 87 déc. 90 déc. 93 déc. 96 déc. 99

MSCI WORLD USD

Allocations are frequently based on long term hypotheses/observations….

Probability of having a positive performance over:1 year: 76%3 years: 85%5 years: 95%

LONG TERM PERFORMANCE OF EQUITIES (1969-1999)

30 years of growth in the equity market with a speed-up from 1995 to early 2000

21

Page 22: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.Please see important information at the end of the document.

83

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

déc. 99 déc. 00 déc. 01 déc. 02 déc. 03 déc. 04 déc. 05 déc. 06 déc. 07 déc. 08 déc. 09 déc. 10

MSCI WORLD USD

… that were not confirmed over the last decade

Probability of having a positive performance over:1 year: 51%3 years: 47%5 years: 58%

LONG TERM PERFORMANCE OF EQUITIES (2000-2011)

Equities delivered a negative performance over the last decade (2000-2011) with very wide fluctuations

22

Page 23: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.Please see important information at the end of the document.

Static Weights ignore that Risk environment is not stable over time

23

Risk environment is very unstable over time. Volatility peaks tend to have repeating patterns and therefore, explain the sequences of high or low volatility regime The risk level of a given allocation varies according to the effective (not theoritical) volatility regime.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

VIX

During two distinct volatility regimes, a constant strategic target in equities stands for a very different level of risk

Volatility peaks repeatthemselves: a first peakis genreally followed by other peaks in the same direction

Page 24: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.Please see important information at the end of the document.

An apparently diversified asset allocation… that hides huge risk concentration

24

The portfolio appears to be allocated in a balanced way across the various asset classes that compose the benchmark

A risk contribution analysis shows thatmore than 90% of the risk budget is relatedto the equityallocation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Bonds Equities

Weight (%) Risk Contribution

Cont

ribut

ion

to to

tal p

ortfo

lio ri

sk

Weig

ht in

tota

l AuM

CAPITAL-WEIGHTED AND RISK-WEIGHTED ASSET ALLOCATION

Capital weight Risk contribution

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Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.Please see important information at the end of the document. 25

Achieves true diversification by equalizing the risk contribution of each underlying component of a portfolio

Exposes the portfolio to market risk premium in a more efficient and balanced way

Can be implemented on a single- or a multi-asset universe

Does not rely on expected/forecasted return and volatility

What is Risk Parity?

A systematic investment strategy,allocating risk rather than capital

Source: LOIM

33%19%

Equal «capital» weight

39%

2%

33% 33% 33%

59%

Asset 1 Asset 2 Asset 3

Equal «Risk» weight

33%22%

33% 33%

59%

19%

Asset 1 Asset 2 Asset 3

Capital Allocation Risk Allocation

Page 26: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.

Risk - based Asset Allocation during past scenariosBONDS BEAR MARKET 1980 - 1981

EQUITIES BEAR MARKET 2007 - 2009

BONDS BULL MARKET 2000 - 2003

EQUITIES BULL MARKET 1994 - 1997

90

100

110

120

130

140

Oct/0

0De

c/00

Feb/0

1Ap

r/01

Jun/0

1Au

g/01

Oct/0

1De

c/01

Feb/0

2Ap

r/02

Jun/0

2Au

g/02

Oct/0

2De

c/02

Feb/0

3Ap

r/03

Jun/0

3

Risk Parity60% Bonds / 30% Equities / 10% Commodities allocationBonds

40

60

80

100

120Risk Parity

80

120

160

200

240

Dec/9

4Fe

b/95

Apr/9

5Ju

n/95

Aug/9

5Oc

t/95

Dec/9

5Fe

b/96

Apr/9

6Ju

n/96

Aug/9

6Oc

t/96

Dec/9

6Fe

b/97

Apr/9

7Ju

n/97

Aug/9

7Oc

t/97

Dec/9

7

Risk Parity

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jun/8

0

Jul/8

0

Aug/8

0

Sep/8

0

Oct/8

0

Nov/8

0

Dec/8

0

Jan/8

1

Feb/8

1Ma

r/81

Apr/8

1

May/8

1

Jun/8

1

Jul/8

1

Aug/8

1

Sep/8

1

Risk Parity60% Bonds / 30% Equities / 10% Commodities allocationBonds

Risk based Asset Allocation

Risk based Asset Allocation60% Bonds/ 30% Equities/ 10% CommoditiesMSCI World Equities

Risk based Asset Allocation

Risk based Asset Allocation 60% Bonds/ 30% Equities/ 10% CommoditiesMSCI World Equities

26

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Lombard Odier Investment Managers. September 2011.

Investment process in Asia- The four principles

27

Page 28: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.Please see important information at the end of the document.

The Four Principles

1. Capitalize on economic growth, but manage the economic cycles – global and local.

2. Identify the themes that will be pervasive, irrespective of short term market volatility.

3. Don’t forget regular income yield - compounding is a good defense against inflation.

4. Manage RISK as well as Return. That is the only way to get a diversified portfolio.

Page 29: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.Please see important information at the end of the document.

Outlook scenario : U-shaped recovery

Asia’s growth path will continue to depend largely on external demand and China’s cyclical picture in 2013.

China’s growth will stabilize in 2013 due to positive impact from more anchored market sentiments on Beijing’spolicy.

Japan will experience further growth deceleration due to increasing fiscal drag from fading reconstructionspending.

India will achieve moderate acceleration in growth under more benign financing condition for the private sector, butexternal imbalance will remain as the key challenge.

Exports and counter-cyclical policy will help newly industrialized economies’ (SK, TW, SG, HK) recovery from thisyear’s slump.

ASEAN economies are set to outperform again in 2013, but overheating may trigger tightening and growthmoderation toward the year-end.

Page 30: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.

Investment philosophy

Unlike the US and Europe, Asia is not a homogenous financial market. It is a collection of 13 different countries,each one having a very different sector break –up : industrial companies, real estate companies, IT companies etc.

This segmentation means that countries and sectors are at different points in their economic and earning cycle, andthis creates the opportunity to harvest return from a top – down strategy.

The LO Asia Macro Strategy is a top-down investment strategy capitalizing on the many themes, which drive assetprices in countries, sectors and currencies in Asia, with an absolute return orientation.

Portfolio Characteristics

An Absolute return strategy, targeting return of 6-8% over a cycle with a volatility much lower than the market.

A delivery of absolute return from Asian and Emerging markets to investors, with a far lower volatility than the equitymarkets.

LO Asia Macro Strategy

30

Page 31: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.

Investment Process - A Confluence of CyclesThe Asia Macro strategy distills a confluence of various cycles into a macro allocation strategy across market segments.

LO Asia Macro Strategy (Cont’d)

Global CyclesGlobal Business Cycle impacts output demand for the export led growth model

Commodity Cycle impact the price of raw materials and profitability

Domestic Cycles

Domestic Business Cycle impacts domestic demand from consumers and government spending

Monetary cycle impacts the cost of capital for companies eg: heavily indebted companies

Capex cycle impacts capacity and spending on fixed assets eg: heavy industry

Credit cycle credit availability impacts areas which are financed by credit eg: autos

Product Cycle Business Life Cycle impacts the rate of obsolcence of products eg: electronics

31

Page 32: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.Please see important information at the end of the document.

The Four Principles

1. Capitalize on economic growth, but manage the economic cycles – global and local.

2. Identify the themes that will be pervasive, irrespective of short term market volatility.

3. Don’t forget regular income yield - compounding is a good defense against inflation.

4. Manage RISK as well as Return. That is the only way to get a diversified portfolio.

Page 33: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.

Investment Philosophy

A Multi-strategy approach to investing in Asian equities and bonds.

Deep fundamental bottom up security selection across the capital structure, with a systematic risk managedportfolio construction process.

Investment process for each security segment tailored to the specific characteristics of that segment.

Delivers an Absolute Return without the huge volatility risk of Asian markets

A combination of a sector and country approach, capitalising on the level of local or global factors which drivefinancial markets in various countries.

Portfolio Characteristics

An Absolute return strategy, targeting return of 6-8% over a cycle with a volatility much lower than the market.

A delivery of absolute return from Asian and Emerging markets to investors, with a far lower volatility than theequity markets.

LO Asia Absolute Return Strategy

33

Page 34: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.

Investment Process – A multi-strategy approach to investing in Asia A dynamic capital and risk allocation process across five independent strategies in Asia and Emerging markets.

A benchmark agnostic approach providing exposure to Asia, with a far lower volatility and drawdown than the market or in peer long only funds.

Portfolio Characteristics Five bottom up stock selection strategies wrapped into a single portfolio. Focus on the stability of consistent return, where one investment process bias does not drive the portfolio return. Target 6-8% absolute return, with less than half the volatility of Asian equities.

LO Asia Absolute Return Strategy

Asia in the Global Technology Ecosystem A global customer-supplier relationship approach for all regional technology companies

Asian Domestic Consumption The resilience of domestic demand in Asia, analyzed using an income based approach.

China Export and Demand Reshaping of the Chinese economy to rebalance from export orientation to domestic demand

Financing Asia’s Growth The ability of each Asian country to continue to support credit and lending

Production & Demand of Commodities Analysis of who benefits from high commodity prices and who suffers from it.

34

Page 35: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.Please see important information at the end of the document.

The Four Principles

1. Capitalize on economic growth, but manage the economic cycles – global and local.

2. Identify the themes that will be pervasive, irrespective of short term market volatility.

3. Don’t forget regular income yield - compounding is a good defense against inflation.

4. Manage RISK as well as Return. That is the only way to get a diversified portfolio.

Page 36: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.

LO Global Quality Income Strategy

Portfolio Solution LO Global Quality Income Strategy A globally diversified portfolio of:

High dividend equity High quality credit (EM rather than DM) Blue Chip preferred stock

We only select issuers in any asset class which have the highest quality. The key question we ask in this respect is – Will the company still be around in 10 years. We only select companies which have the financial ability for a “sustainable” dividend payout in the future. The key question here is – Is the

company under any market, financial, or balance sheet stress.

Portfolio Characteristics Three Basic Concepts:

1. Safety first2. High Income3. Potential for capital appreciation

Portfolio has an income yield of 6.0% The yields for Preferreds, Bonds, and Equity are 7.2%, 6.8%, and 5.0% respectively. Average portfolio duration of 4.9 years (assumes holding period of 5 years for equity)

Page 37: Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process · 2012-10-31 · Lombard Odier’s Risk Parity Asia Allocation Process Managing your portfolio through different market environments

Lombard Odier Investment Managers. October 2012.

LO Global Quality Income Strategy (Cont’d)

The Investment Problem

Equities: Higher volatility, lower return - 5 years annualized return dropped from 10% to -0.5% in the last ten years. Volatilityincreased from 12% to 18% in the same period.

Fixed Income: Bond yields are at a 15 yr low - Over the last 10 years, the yield on short term & 10 year bonds have bothdropped dramatically.

Future Inflation - The huge monetary easing over the last 5 yrs will cause very high inflation sometime in the future.

In order to protect the long term purchasing power of assets, an income yield above future inflation is required.

Yield by Asset Class Yield by Country Yield by Sector

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The Four Principles

1. Capitalize on economic growth, but manage the economic cycles – global and local.

2. Identify the themes that will be pervasive, irrespective of short term market volatility.

3. Don’t forget regular income yield - compounding is a good defense against inflation.

4. Manage RISK as well as Return. That is the only way to get a diversified portfolio.

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Traditional Asset Allocation ≠ “Diversified” Portfolio

The risk of a portfolio is usually expressed through its asset weights. This is very misleading… These traditional asset weight based portfolio allocations hide both highly imbalanced and static risk exposures

(i.e. too much equity risk relative to the client risk profile) Such portfolios are only consistent with very bullish views on risky assets (i.e. very positive outlook on the

equity markets)

In a 70% bond / 30% equity based portfolio, 90% of the total riskresults from the equity exposure

70 % of the capital, allocated to bonds, only contributes to 10% ofthe total risk

The bond allocation only serves to dilute the equity performance(positive or negative)

Such risk imbalances are only consistent with a very strongpositive view about equities.

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Bonds Equities

Weight Risk proportions

70%

30%

90%

10%

Example:

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To build a “truly” diversified portfolio, our starting pointis to allocate capital according to the risk contributioncharacteristics of individual asset classes (especially,where there is a disproportionate risk from a singleasset class, like equity). Not the other way around, asit is done traditionally.

In adopting this process, the risk allocation drives thecapital allocation. This determines the implicit long-term strategic asset allocation weights for the portfolio

The result is a a more stable and diversified multi-asset class portfolio.

How to develop a risk-based Asset Allocation?

Equities

41.5%

17%

CommoditiesBonds

Ex ante Risk contribution

Capital weights

Equities CommoditiesBonds

20%

65%

15%

Risk allocation drives...

… capital allocation

41.5%

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…over reliance on equity bull market

Equities %Commodities %

Bonds %

Traditional balanced portfolios pre-define “static” strategic weights of different assets…

Growth without inflation

(= Equity Focused Scenario)

Recession /deflation

Inflation

…this approach hides a huge concentration of risk in only one equity-supportive scenario

Growth without inflation

Recession/deflationInflation

Portfolios should be built to benefit equally from various economic and financial scenarios…

… and dynamic exposures to various assets should only translate this balance in risk over time

EquitiesCommodities

Bonds

Rather…Currently…

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Investment Horizon based suggested allocations

Long Term Investment (10+ years) eg: Trusts Benefitting from Asia’s growth : 50% Equity assets Uncorrelated sources of return : 30 % Absolute return strategies Component of Yield : 20 % Yield

Medium Term Investment (3-8 years) eg: Surplus Liquid Assets Benefitting from Asia’s growth : 40% Equity assets Uncorrelated sources of return : 30 % Absolute return strategies Component of Yield : 30 % Yield

Short Term Opportunistic (3 years) eg: Active Investment Funds Benefitting from Asia’s growth : 20% Equity assets Uncorrelated sources of return : 30 % Absolute return strategies Component of Yield : 50 % Yield

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Conclusion

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Conclusion

Asia’s macro trends continue to be attractive and carry investment opportunities

Asia’s short term outlook is slightly positive

Manage the limits of traditional portfolio allocation

We believe in a multi-strategy investment architecture to allow the use of multiple return drivers in a portfolio.

We segment our investment universe not only by country and sectors, but also by themes

We believe portfolio construction, risk management and portfolio hedging are an essential part of managing Asianstrategies, given the higher market volatility. They are a must, to complement a fundamental alpha process

We agressively hedge all unwanted risks in the portfolio, using the now liquid Asian markets in futures, swaps,CFDs and forwards

We believe a team of specialists, each with an independent customised investment process is better suited toprevent a single point of failure, and create a more robust portfolio

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Important informationGeneral disclaimerThis document has been prepared by Lombard Odier Funds (hereinafter LO Funds), a Luxembourg UCITS-SICAV authorized and regulated by the Luxembourg Supervisory Authority of the Financial Sector (CSSF), having its registered office at 5, Allée Scheffer, L-2520 Luxembourg. It is not intended for distribution, publication, or use in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, or use would be unlawful, nor is it aimed at any person or entity to whom it would be unlawful to address such a document.This document is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to purchase or sell any security. It contains the opinions of Lombard Odier Investment Managers (hereinafter LOIM)*, as at the date of issue. This document does not contain personalized recommendations or advice and is not intended to substitute any professional advice on investment in financial products that might be appropriate under specific circumstances. Before entering into any transaction, an investor should consider carefully the suitability of a transaction to his/her particular circumstances and, where necessary, obtain independent professional advice in respect of risks, as well as any legal, regulatory, credit, tax, and accounting consequences.The information and analysis contained herein are based on sources believed to be reliable. However, LOIM does not guarantee the timeliness, accuracy, or completeness of the information contained in this document, nor does it accept any liability for any loss or damage resulting from its use. All information and opinions as well as the prices indicated may change without notice.This document does not contain any information regarding the performance of any LO investment product but only reflects the historical performance of elements taken into consideration for the computation of LO benchmarks. Investors are advised to consult the latest annual or semi-annual Fund’s report for further information.This document is strictly for private use by its recipients and may not be passed on to third parties or otherwise publicly distributed. This document may not be reproduced (in whole or in part), transmitted, modified, or used for any public or commercial purpose without the prior written permission of Lombard Odier. Neither this document nor any copy thereof may be sent, taken into, or distributed in the United States or given to any US person.Important information regarding LO FundsLombard Odier Funds or LO Funds (hereinafter the Fund) is an investment company with variable capital (SICAV) organised under the laws of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. The Fund is authorised and regulated by the Luxembourg Supervisory Authority of the Financial Sector (CSSF) as a UCITS within the meaning of EU Directive 85/611/EC, as amended. The Fund is only registered for public offering in certain jurisdictions. Please consult http//:funds.lombardodier.com for further information. Consequently, the offering of the Fund’s shares may be restricted in other jurisdictions. Accordingly, prospective investors must inform themselves of, and observe, such restrictions, including legal, tax, foreign exchange or other restrictions in their relevant jurisdictions. This document is not a recommendation to subscribe to and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the Fund’s shares nor shall there be any sale of the Fund’s shares in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful. This document may not be used for, and shall not be deemed to be, a public offering of the Fund’s shares in any jurisdiction. Neither this document nor any part of it shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract to purchase or subscription for the Fund’s shares. Any such acquisition may only be made on the basis of the constituent documents of the Fund each in their final form. Please read these documents before investing and take note of the risk factors. A copy of the latest prospectus and the simplified prospectus, as well as the latest (annual audited and semi-annual non audited) financial reports of the Fund is available on the Lombard Odier website (funds.lombardodier.com) and can be requested free of charge to Lombard Odier Funds, 5, Allée Scheffer, L-2520 Luxembourg or to the local appointed distributors or your financial advisor. Local information and locally appointed distributors: Switzerland: Representative: Lombard Odier Funds (Switzerland) SA, av. des Morgines, 1213 Petit-Lancy; Paying agent: Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch & Cie, rue de la Corraterie 11, CH-1204 Geneva; Austria: Erste Bank der österreichischen Sparkassen AG, Graben 21, A-1010 Wien; Germany: DekaBank Deutsche Girozentrale, Mainzer Landstraße 16, D-60325 Frankfurt am Main; France: CACEIS Bank, place Valhubert 1-3, F-75013 Paris. Italy: The legal documents of Lombard Odier Funds Sicav are available at the paying agents and the distributors in Italy.United States: The Fund´s shares have not been registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933 and, except in a transaction which does not violate such Act, may not be directly or indirectly offered or sold in the United States of America, any of its territories or possessions or areas subject to its jurisdiction, or to or for the benefit of a United States Person. For this purpose, the term "United States Person" or "U.S. Person" shall mean any citizen, national or resident of the United States of America, partnership organized or existing in any state, territory or possession of the United States of America, a corporation organized under the laws of the United States or of any state, territory or possession thereof, or any estate or trust that is subject to United States Federal income tax regardless of the source of its income.© 2011 Lombard Odier Investment Managers* – all rights reserved *Lombard Odier Investment Managers is a trade name of the Lombard Odier Group.

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Important information

This document reflects the opinion of Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch & Cie or an entity of the Group [ hereinafter "Lombard Odier" ] as of the date of issue. It constitutes research, which is intended primarily for internal staff, but may be distributed upon request to certain institutional or sophisticated private investors for authorized purposes only. This document is not intended for distribution, publication, or use in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, or use would be unlawful, nor it is directed to any person or entity to which it would be unlawful to direct such a document. This document is furnished for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to purchase or sell any security. The opinions herein do not take into account individual clients’ circumstances, objectives, or needs. Each client must make his own independent decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein. Before entering into any transaction, each client is urged to consider the suitability of the transaction to his particular circumstances and to independently review, with professional advisors as necessary, the specific risks incurred, in particular at the financial, regulatory, and tax levels.The information and analysis contained herein have been based on sources believed to be reliable. However, Lombard Odier does not guarantee their timeliness, accuracy, or completeness, nor does it accept any liability for any loss or damage resulting from their use. All information and opinions as well as the prices indicated are subject to change without notice. Past performance is no guarantee of current or future returns and the client may consequently get back less than he invested. Performance data of mutual funds do not take into account the commissions and fees charged on the issue and redemption of the units or shares.The investments mentioned herein may be subject to risks that are difficult to quantify and to integrate into the valuation of investments. Generally speaking, products with a high degree of risk, such as derivatives, structured products, or alternative/non-traditional investments [ Hedge Funds, private equity, real estate funds, etc. ] are suitable only for sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. Upon request, Lombard Odier is available to provide more information to clients on risks associated with specific investments.If opinions from financial analysts are contained herein, such analysts attest that all of the opinions expressed accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. In order to ensure their independence, financial analysts are expressly prohibited from owning any securities that belong to the research universe they cover. The description of the rating system used by Lombard Odier for its financial research is available on www.lombardodier.com. This document may not be reproduced [ in whole or in part ], transmitted, modified, or used for any public or commercial purpose without the prior written permission of Lombard Odier. © 2012 Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch & Cie - all rights reserved.

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