1. Post-traditional Learners and the Transformation of Postsecondary Education: A College Leaders Manifesto Conference on Adult Learner Enrollment Management July 16, 2013 Louis Soares VP, Policy Research and Strategy American Council on Education

2. Outline PSE Knowledge and Skills Demand Completion Goals Challenges to Goals Innovation is in Order Innovation Framework Basis for Innovation Underground Learning Scene Manifesto 3. TIFFANY M. 28 Years Old 9 years of PSE Six colleges and universities $25,000 in debt 5 repeated Gen Ed courses Worked Full-time 6 of 9 years 4. Tiffany M. We call her: At-risk Working Adult Student Only Part-time Non-traditional She Is: Courageous Helping Pay the Mortgage A Multitasker Post-traditional 5. Postsecondary Knowledge and Skills Demand 6. Global Economy in A Snapshot 787 Dreamliner 5 States 9 Countries 6 Languages 14 Suppliers Global Value Chains Standards-based Technology-Driven Cross-disciplinary Teams Learning is built into Work 7. Driving U.S. Skills Demand Toward Creative Work 8. Education Requirements of Jobs 2018 High School Dropouts 10% High School Graduates 27% Some College 18% Bachelor's Degree 23% Graduate Degree 10% Associate's Degree 12% Source: The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce Forecasts of Education Demand 2018 Labor force in 2018: 166 million 9. Technology and the Rise of the Expertise Economy -10 -5 0 5 10 15 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 Levy, F, & Murnane, R. J. (2004). The New Division of Labor: How Computers Are Creating the Next Job Market. Princeton University Press. Expert Thinking Complex Communication Routine Manual Non-routine Manual Routine Cognitive 10. PSE Skills Demand Is Driving Other Non-collegiate Learning Trends Certification and Licensure Required in Job Growth areas of healthcare, IT, Education, Green Tech C/L require custom curricula and assessment with third party validation Dynamic Labor Market requires occupational credentials for matching candidates with job requirements. Every year: A third of the entire U.S. labor force changes jobs 30 million Americans work at jobs that did not exist in the previous quarter Many occupations that workers have today did not exist five years ago 11. PRESIDENT GOALS 12. President Obamas 2020 Goal Goal 10 million more graduates from community colleges, four-year colleges and universities by 2020 (beyond 2+ million expected due to growth) Goal Every American completes one year or more of higher education or advanced training in his/her lifetime Result Best educated, most competitive workforce in the world 12 13. # of Credentials Source 1.3 million degrees projected population growth 4.3 million degrees increase high school graduation rates, college-going rates of recent HS graduates, and postsecondary graduation rates 4.2 million degrees half of the 8.4 million adults (25-34) w/ some college complete degree 2.6 million degrees third of the 8.8 million adults (35-44) w/ some college complete degree 3.4 million degrees fifteen percent of the 22.7 million adults (35-44) who have completed high school, but not attended college, complete a degree 10 million Post-traditional Learners Completing Degrees A Key to achieving degree production benchmarks by 2020 Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers, 2010 14. CHALLENGES TO COMPLETION 15. Moodys Investors Service Announcement: Moodys 2013 outlook for entire US Higher Education sector changed to negative Global Credit Research 16 Jan 2013 "The US higher education sector has hit a critical juncture in the evolution of its business model. Even market-leading universities with diversified revenue streams are facing diminished prospects for revenue growth.. ..most universities will have to lower their cost structures to achieve long-term financial sustainability and fund future initiatives. Eva Bogaty, Assistant Vice-President, Moodys Investor Service 16. Economic Pressure Constrains Tuition Growth 35% of private and 21% of public colleges are unable to achieve tuition revenue growth in FY 2011. (Trend continues into 2013.) Nearly 50% of universities are reporting lower enrollment growth. 17. Private University Revenue Constrained 18. Public University- Revenue Constrained 19. College Affordability 20. QUALITY IN QUESTION Study of 2,300 undergraduates 45 percent demonstrated no significant gains in critical thinking, analytical reasoning, and written communications during the first two years of college 21. Changing Undergraduate Demographics(2010) 17.6 million undergraduates 15 percent attend four-year colleges and live on campus 43 percent attend two year colleges 37 percent of undergrads enrolled part-time 38 percent of those enrolled are older than 25 and one quarter are older 30 Nearly a quarter of postsecondary students in the U.S. are parents One-third of all undergraduates work full-time & 44 percent work part-time Over half of today's students are seeking a "sub-baccalaureate" credential 2008-09, conferred 806,000 certs. & 787,000 AAs versus 1.6 million BAs 22. In Short Undergraduates are Getting older Taking longer to finish Working more Have their own kids Seeking credentials with labor market relevance They are becoming more like what we used to call adult or non-traditional learners. 23. More Students Fewer are Traditional More Diversity in Learning Needs Pressure for Accountability Less Money INNOVATION IS IN ORDER 24. Postsecondary Education Innovation The intentional discovery and application of --- new institutional, instructional, credentialing and finance models that maintain quality and reduce costs and increase value. 25. 1. Institutional Models 2. Technology 4. Policy and Standards Environment 3. Education Delivery Networks Innovation Framework 26. Suggested Approach to Innovation Target Non-consumption, grow the market Enabling Technology, simplify and routinize product service New Business Model ways to organize, people, technology resources Target non-consumers, Jobs to Be Done Functional, emotional and social dimensions of circumstances in which they buy Why no innovation at scale in PSE? No sophisticated, Hi-tech and Hi- touch business models at scale Strategy for PSE Market innovate by growing the market based on Jobs to Be Done by Post-traditional Learners 27. Sector Growth by Engaging Nonconsumers, Online Example Simpler Tailored to PtL Redefined Quality Better Outcome/Completion Reduce Cost/Price 15 Percent 85 Percent 28. Basis For Innovation 29. Post-traditional Learner Jobs To Be Done 30. Non Or Under Consumers (Post-traditional Learners) Education Attainment # of population % of population Less than ninth grade 7,972,497 4.87% Ninth to 12th grade, no diploma 12, 539, 457 7.65% High school grad/GED 44,350,497 27.07% Some college/No degree 36,209,776 22.10% Associate 13,832,109 8.44% Bachelors 31,423,077 19.18% Graduate or professional degree 17,527,995 10.70% 31. And More Want To Take Work Related Courses National Household Survey (NEHS), of the U.S. Census Bureau (2005) Increase in # of adults participating in some form of PS education or training From 58 million in 1991 to 90 million in 1999. 37M adults interested in work-related education but are unable to participate. Source: Bosworth, Brian and Victoria Choitz. Held Back: How Student Aid Programs Fail Working Adults. Arlington, MA: 2002. 32. Post-traditional Learner Commonalities Post-traditional Learners: Are needed wage earners for themselves or their families Combine work and learning at the same time or move between them frequently. Pursue knowledge, skills, and credentials that employers will recognize and compensate. Require developmental education to be successful in college-level courses. Seek academic/career advising to navigate their complex path to a degree. 33. Job To Be Done: More fluid form of college-going, longer term, episodic participation Modular, easy-to-access instruction Blended academic and occupational curricula Progressive credentialing of knowledge and skills (sub-degree level) Financial, academic, and career advising Public policy that reflects their complex task in balancing life, work and education 34. Millennial Generation In College More Choices Experiential and Exploratory Learners Flexibility / Convenience Personalization and Customization Collaboration & Intelligence 35. Investment in PSE and Training 36. Non-credit PSE Est. # served 22 million Credit PSE Est. # served 21 million Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, 2011 Investment in Educating Adults that is Not Going to Higher Education Institutions 37. Market for Learning Validation 38. Non-Credit Postsecondary Education Encompasses Learning that: Takes place outside of the formal college classroom Builds knowledge, skills and abilities for use in work and life Can happen in varied settings including: Workplace (incl. unions) Non-credit side of accredited institutions Proprietary training schools Community-based organizations Military Service Online (unaccredited) Volunteer Experiences 39. Non-Credit v. Credit-bearing Learning Credit-bearing Postsecondary Education and training Type Credit-bearing Courses Providers(accredited) Public 2-year Public 4-year Private 2-year Private non-profit 4-year Private for-profit 4-year Non-Credit Postsecondary Education and training Type Employer Training Apprenticeships Public Workforce Training Military Volunteer Experiences Providers Business Community Community-base organizations Cross-sector partnerships Community colleges Armed Forces Proprietary Firms Online Providers of Content Emerging Ecosystem To Validate Non-credit Learning and Beyond 40. 1. Institutional Models 2. Technology 4. Policy and Standards Environment 3. Education Delivery Networks Innovation Framework 41. Why Is There an Ecosystem Emerging Credential Recognition Credit-bearing coursework yields AA and BA AA/BA are the most recognized/portable credentials in the labor market Allows learners to add outside learning toward a degree/credential Diverse Providers Different objectives, delivery methods and learning outcomes Makes it difficult to assure quality Awarding Credit Challenge Even when NC Education has robust learning outcomes No standard translation to Credit-bearing coursework 42. Ways of Awarding Credit for Non-credit Learning (PLA) Many of the players in the ecosystem participate in one or more of these approaches: Individualized Student Portfolios Credit For Training Credit By Examination Competency-Based Education 43. Competency Based Education 44. Illustrates what students should be expected to know and be able to do once they earn their degrees. Proposes learning outcomes to benchmark the associate, bachelors & masters degrees. Field Development in: 100 institutions, 30 states and six disciplines Five Dimensions of Learning Outcomes 45. Partnership to award college credit for industry certified competencies 46. UOP/MI Partnership reflects broader trend called stackable certificates to link Degrees (for-credit) and Workplace Certifications and Certificates (non-credit) Courses Certificate Degrees Certificate Certifications Apprenticeships Above concept known as stackable certificates 47. Future Scenarios 48. Instruction & Pedagogy Bundled Content Knowledge Applied and Meta-Skillls Social Networks Credentials 49. Instruction & Pedagogy Unbundled Content Knowledge Applied and Meta-Skillls Social NetworksCredentials Underground Learning Scene 50. Elements Of the Scene Learning Activists Learning Co-ops Learning Hubs Making Hubs Competence Hubs Community-Bldg Tools 51. Learning Activists 52. Learning Co-ops November 4, 2012 A Dorm for All Colleges 53. Learning Hubs $2890/6-month term 54. Making Hubs 55. Competence Hubs 56. Community-Building Tools 57. Underground Learning Scene 58. College Leaders Manifesto Go Beyond the Academy to Take Leadership A Consortium for Teaching and Learning Rebuild the Definition of Postsecondary Education from the Post- traditional Learner Out Be Entrepreneurs of a New Venture, Not Stewards of Existing Institutions 59. THANK YOU 60. Public Policy/Innovation Opportunity Product Process Marketing Organization Affordability Pell IBR AOTC Section 127 Reverse engineer program to expected income Section 127 Pitch to employers Keep Costs Down Campus-based Aid Race to the Top First in the World Competency Based Community Colleges TAACCCT CC to Career Fund Dev. Ed Curriculum Accountability/Transpare ncy Performance Measures Fin. Aid Shopping Sheet College Scorecard Military Initiatives Modular Program Outside Title IV Develop better customers Front page outcomes and debt www.google.com 61. A New Value Network For Credentials COLLEGE Source: Burck Smith, Straighterline, 2012 62. Reputation-based Credentialling 63. New Credentials - Overthrow BA Hegemony Knowledge Worker Journeyman License Adaptive Experts T-Shaped Professionals Occupational Credential AP in statistics AP in English language and Composition 64. 65 Free educational content Textbooks Multimedia Lessons Courses Low cost curators Competency-based education Portfolios Certificates Digital badges $99 + $39/course $2890/6-month term 65. 66 Academic analytics Education dashboards eLearning Intelligence Early Warning and Retention Learning Analytics Longitudinal Data Systems Technology-mediated social interaction Peer reviews Learning groups Tutoring Collaboration Adaptive learning Personalized feedback Targeting learning gaps Smart tutors 66. Why Downgrade? Key Pressure Points on Revenue Economic Pressure Slow Recovery Heightened Political/Public Pressure (State and Federal) 67. Declining Support For Higher Education New Hampshire -39.4% Arizona -25.1% Louisiana -18.5% Colorado -15.4% Tennessee -14.7% Virginia -14.7% Washington -14.5% Oklahoma 14.5% Nevada -14.0% California -13.5% Pennsylvania -13.4% Wisconsin -13.3% Wyoming -12.7% Connecticut -12.2% Michigan -12.2% Florida -12.0% Ohio -11.8% Georgia -11.5% South Dakota -8.7% Oregon -8.0% South Carolina -7.5% New York -7.1% Missouri -7.1% Minnesota -7.1% Kansas -7.0% Vermont -6.4% Mississippi -6.3% New Mexico -5.7% Massachusetts -5.3% Alabama -4.7% Idaho -4.1% North Carolina -3.7% Montana -3.5% Kentucky -3.4% Iowa -2.6% New Jersey -2.5% Maine -2.1% Arkansas -1.3% Indiana -1.0% Utah -0.8% Nebraska -0.5% Hawaii 0.2% Delaware 0.3% Maryland 0.6% West Virginia 1.7% Texas 3.1% Alaska 3.8% North Dakota 10.4% Illinois 12.1% Rhode Island 13.1% One-Year Percent Changes in State Fiscal Support for Higher Education (FY2012 - FY2013) Illinois State University Center for the Study of Education Policy Grapevine Fiscal Year 2011-12 Data Updated March 15, 2012