Market and Consumer Trends

Sharon Orrell8th March 2012

Holiday trip volumes are below 2009 peak, but remain well above pre-recession levels for the third successive year

Apr-0

6

Jun-

06

Aug-0

6

Oct-0

6

Dec-0

6

Feb-0

7

Apr-0

7

Jun-

07

Aug-0

7

Oct-0

7

Dec-0

7

Feb-0

8

Apr-0

8

Jun-

08

Aug-0

8

Oct-0

8

Dec-0

8

Feb-0

9

Apr-0

9

Jun-

09

Aug-0

9

Oct-0

9

Dec-0

9

Feb-1

0

Apr-1

0

Jun-

10

Aug-1

0

Oct-1

0

Dec-1

0

Feb-1

1

Apr-1

1

Jun-

11

Aug-1

1

Oct-1

1

Dec-1

10

10

20

30

40

50

60

Domestic Overnight Trips in England – Rolling 12 Month Trend

Trips(m) 2011

change

+6%Holiday

VFR

Business

+10%

+15%

Source: GB Tourism Survey

Trends vary by region….

London

Yorkshire

South West

South East

Average

West Midlands

North West

East Midlands

East of England

North East

-5

-4

1

2

5

5

9

13

19

26

English Holiday Trips – Year on Year % Change Jan – Nov 2011 vs 2010

Source: GB Tourism Survey

Trends also vary by demographics and trip characteristics…

B&B accommodation

DE

Young Famillies

Hotels / GH

Older Families

AB

AVERAGE

Empty Nester

C2

Young Independents

C1

Older Independents

Self-catering

Static Caravans

-9

2

2

3

4

5

5

5

6

7

7

8

17

20

English Holiday Trips – Year on Year % Change Jan – Sept 2011 vs 2010

Source: GB Tourism Survey

…and online booking continues to become ever more important

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

10.4 12.2 12.6 16.7 17.1

14.4 13.4 12.113.8 11.5

15.9 16 15.3

16.915.4

Domestic Holiday Trips (m)

Booked Online Booked Offline No Booking / Don't Know

Jan – Nov 2011Holiday trips booked online

+ 19%

Source: GB Tourism Survey

Source: GB Tourism Survey

Attractions performance was positive through most of 2011

Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Jan-11

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11 Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

-6

4

14

24

34

44

-5

15

5 4

-3-1

0

-1

19

12

-2

10

1 13

0

47

9

28

% Year on Year Change in Attractions Visitor Numbers

2009 20102011

Source: England Attractions Monitor

Quarter 1+7%

Quarter 2+4%

Quarter 3+2%

Source: VE Quarterly Attractions Monitor

Quarter 4+12%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

24.2 24.7

27.830

32.7 32.8 31.929.9 29.8 30.6

7.7 89.3 9.7 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.4 11.7 11.9

UK Inbound Visits (Millions)

All Visits Holiday Visits

Some recovery in inbound trip volumes in 2011, with holiday travel at an all-time high

Source: International Passenger Survey

In the accommodation sector, confidence levels vary by type of business

Guesthouse / B&B

Self-catering

Hotel

Caravan & Camping

All Accommodation

14

18

19

21

18

59

58

66

69

63

Optimism about Spring and Easter

Very confident Quite confident

Source: VisitEngland Business Confidence Monitor – January 2012

Among attractions, larger operators are more optimistic than others

20,000 or less

20,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 200,000

Over 200,000

All Attractions

20

31

29

34

42

28

18

30

12

14

15

19

Optimism about Jan – March 2012 – by size of attraction

More optimistc Less optimistic

Source: VisitEngland Attractions Monitor

The Consumer

Widespread concern about the economic environment, though levels seem to have peaked

Oct/Nov 08

Feb/Mar 09

Jun-09 Oct/Nov 09

Feb-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Feb-12

70

75

63

58

61 64

74 72

70

53

5960

65 66

65

5254

4749

54

57

6061

59

% strongly / slightly agree

Very concerned about it

Concerned about job security

Worried about mak-ing ends meet

Source: VisitEngland Staycation Research

Three quarters have changed spending patterns as a result of the downturn – and 1 in 4 are “seriously affected.”

Oct/Nov 08

Feb/Mar 09

Jun-09 Oct/Nov 09

Feb-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Feb-12

15 17 18 17 19 20 24 24 25

4752 50 52 53 51

54 52 51

2822 19 14

16 2016 17 15

10 9 13 17 12 9 6 6 9

Impact of Economic Downturn

Hasn't affected, not worrying

Hasn't affected but concerned

Affected a little

Seriously affected

Source: VisitEngland Staycation Research

What do we know about “staycationers”?

15% “Switchers”

• Replaced a foreign holiday with one at home

• High proportion of families• More worried about job

security and credit crunch• Main motivations were

financial situation and exchange rate

• In total, 22% of the population

9% “Extras”

• Took more domestic breaks – but not as substitute for others – also more foreign hols

• Younger profile• Less affected by credit crunch

than switchers (but have become more cost conscious over time)

• Main motivations were exploring / going somewhere new

“I went on so many holidays last year... here as well as abroad..it was great”

“I had to go on holiday in this country because money was well short”

And what was their experience?

“Switchers”

• In the main, positive….

“Extras”

It was far better than expected...we went to Cornwall where I used to go when I was a

kid ..but it’s better than I remember and little ones wanted to be shown what we used to

do...they really loved it

We enjoyed it as a family much more than we thought we would..we did things together...went on trips to light railways, country houses, the grounds

It was OK…But to be honest if I had more money I would go abroad this year...I don’t so it will have to be England...I don’t know it’s not quite like going away

I really enjoyed the trip last year in England...really opened eyes to possibilities you don’t really think of...great country really and seen

so little of it

We had a wedding in Cumbria...so we decided to extend it to 3 days in the Lakes...wow!

This year has got me thinking….

Expectation of more domestic trips – even in longer term

Extras

Switchers

All

76

66

50

24

34

50

Whether will take more UK holidays in longer term, beyond 2012

Yes No

Source: VisitEngland Staycation Research Sept 2011

Finances play a role in this , but NOT the only reason

Exchange rate

To support UK tourism

Easier to holiday in UK /hassle

To return to a place I'd liked

Easy at last minute

To explore the UK

To go somewhere new in UK

Cost/economy

18

18

29

31

31

39

40

47

Reasons for wanting to take more trips at home in future

Source: VisitEngland Staycation Research 2011

Market and Consumer Trends

Sharon Orrell8th March 2012